Is "Building Around" The Current Roster Better Than A Rebuild?

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023 and traded Burnes that winter.  The next season they won 93 games.  The two teams were not in remotely similar situations which is why we are discussing if a rebuild is the best idea.  We would not be having that conversation had the Twins won 92 games.  

Sorry. I was commenting on your post about the Brewers. I must have misunderstood it.

[TNtwins85]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Did they trade them as early as the Twins traded Duran, Varland and Jax? It seems like they trade them with 1 year of control or 1+ years at the deadline in a season they didn’t make the playoffs similar to the Berrios deal. The Brewers and Guardians do a good job of maximizing and utilizing the peak value of their players before trading them. The Twins did that with Berrios. They didn’t with Duran, Jax and Varland.

The Brewers received 9 players for Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Josh Hader. I only see one that had even 1 WAR on the roster last year in Caleb Durbin. He is a solid player but a 101 OPS+ at 3B isn’t a difference maker. Contreras was acquired for a prospect in a three team deal. Yelich was acquired for prospects. Peralta was acquired a decade ago for a one year rental in Adam Lind that would be similar to the Twins trading Bader. Who are the other 6 players acquired in deals for players like Ryan or Lopez or Buxton?

Do the Brewers need to keep their impact players to get to the World Series? They had control of Burnes in 2024. In season he would have helped get them the bye. Then he starts game 1 of the divisional series against a team that probably can’t go with their number 1 or 2. Do they make the World Series if they keep him? They need impact players to win the World Series. Their return of DJ Hall and Joey Ortiz hardly seems worth losing a season of a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

 

 

It’s a numbers game. 
Corbin Burnes- 1 yr of control-provided Bal 3.5WAR

DL Hall- 4 years of control left- 0.5WAR

Joey Ortiz-4 years of control left- 3.0WAR

Hall could be a rotation piece or a LRP. Ortiz provides at the very least very strong defensive shortstop.

Devin Williams-1yr of control-provided NYY with -.3WAR

Caleb Durbin- 5years of control left- 2.8WAR

Nestor Cortes-1yr of control- -.2WAR

Durbin is your 3B and was one of the only reliable bats in their playoff run. Cortes provided almost nothing 

Josh Hader- 1.5yr control- provided SDP with 1.5WAR

this one is a bit more complicated but they got Robert Gasser who still has 5 years of control and has provided .3WAR. Dinelson Lamet was immediately waived and signed by the Rockies. Taylor Rogers provided -.4WAR for the rest of 2022. Estuery Ruiz provided -.2WAR in 3 games but was a piece used to acquire William Contreras, Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager. Those 3 have combined for 14.6WAR. Overall Contreras provided most of that but at the catcher position. 
Burnes, Williams, Hader=4.7WAR

Prospects=20.7WAR roughly

thats just those trades. Pretty productive I’d say and still providing!

Edited December 14, 2025 by TNtwins85
Added more stats

[KBJ1]

Full rebuild? So far the only potentially real prospect we got for all of the previous trades was the 18 yr.old catcher. Even if we get anybody worthwhile for our 3 remaining quality players, what good will that do if A) they are years away & B) there is no money to build a team around them?

Do they expect to have a 26 man roster of young All Stars all making league minimum? Absurd! 

MLB is doomed as a league without full and equal revenue sharing  and hard salary caps. 

[jorgenswest]

14 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

It’s a numbers game. 
Corbin Burnes- 1 yr of control-provided Bal 3.5WAR

DL Hall- 4 years of control left- 0.5WAR

Joey Ortiz-4 years of control left- 3.0WAR

Hall could be a rotation piece or a LRP. Ortiz provides at the very least very strong defensive shortstop.

Devin Williams-1yr of control-provided NYY with -.3WAR

Caleb Durbin- 5years of control left- 2.8WAR

Nestor Cortes-1yr of control- -.2WAR

Durbin is your 3B and was one of the only reliable bats in their playoff run. Cortes provided almost nothing 

Josh Hader- 1.5yr control- provided SDP with 1.5WAR

this one is a bit more complicated but they got Robert Gasser who still has 5 years of control and has provided .3WAR. Dinelson Lamet was immediately waived and signed by the Rockies. Taylor Rogers provided -.4WAR for the rest of 2022. Estuery Ruiz provided -.2WAR in 3 games but was a piece used to acquire William Contreras, Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager. Those 3 have combined for 14.6WAR. Overall Contreras provided most of that but at the catcher position. 
Burnes, Williams, Hader=4.7WAR

Prospects=20.7WAR roughly

thats just those trades. Pretty productive I’d say and still providing!

I am all for the Twins trading prospects like Ruiz. I would argue a bunch of 1-2 WAR seasons aren’t going to replace a Cy Young candidate starter in the playoffs. 

[TNtwins85]

8 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Full rebuild? So far the only potentially real prospect we got for all of the previous trades was the 18 yr.old catcher. Even if we get anybody worthwhile for our 3 remaining quality players, what good will that do if A) they are years away & B) there is no money to build a team around them?

Do they expect to have a 26 man roster of young All Stars all making league minimum? Absurd! 

MLB is doomed as a league without full and equal revenue sharing  and hard salary caps. 

Please go back to watching your NFL and NBA games if you have nothing to contribute other than the same beat to death horse. Yes we all know MLB is doomed without the cap/floor. It’s been said 5 billion times in here. 

[TNtwins85]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am all for the Twins trading prospects like Ruiz. I would argue a bunch of 1-2 WAR seasons aren’t going to replace a Cy Young candidate starter in the playoffs. 

For 1 game with Baltimore he was worth an 0-1 record with 8IP 5H 1ER 1BB and 3 K’s. That’s what he was worth to Baltimore. More than what MIL got from Ortiz and Hall that postseason but not much more.

[Nashvilletwin]

Falvey should call the Vancouver Canucks GM and the Nephew should call the Canucks’ owner.

That’s how you trade a star on a roster that can’t compete who has two years left on a decent contract and 100% will not sign an extension (he doesn’t want to and the Canucks can’t afford him anyway). 

[twinstalker]

Rebuild can't work unless you know what you're looking for in a prospect.  Hitting-wise, they don't.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Falvey should call the Vancouver Canucks GM and the Nephew should call the Canucks’ owner.

That’s how you trade a star on a roster that can’t compete who has two years left on a decent contract and 100% will not sign an extension (he doesn’t want to and the Canucks can’t afford him anyway). 

I'm mostly just a baseball fan but am more aware of hockey because my sons are Wild fans. From reading a dozen articles it looks like this trade will be a big boost to both teams. The Wild get one of the top players in the NHL, importantly an offensive defenseman, and the Canucks get a very talented 20 year old who can play right now, a very good young center, a promising young player, and a draft choice. A trade that works for both teams is the ideal situation.

The trick for the Twins is to pound the pavement looking for that trade. Sitting around watching football won't help the Twins solve their unbalanced roster for 2026. There are options. Since money still seems to be an issue, trading one of their stars for prospects seems reasonable. Can Falvey call and make an offer like it appears the Wild did (the articles all indicate that the Wild guy initiated the conversation)?

A number of people have suggested that the Twins need a 1B, hope for someone to backup SS, and want a RH bat. Move Luke to 1B, sign Bo Bichette for 2B, or let Bo play 1B and keep Luke at 2B. That takes care of 1B and the RH bat. Trade Joe Ryan, Marek Houston, and Kendry Rojas to Sacramento for Leo De Vries. SS is covered. Don't like that deal? Trade Bailey Ober and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. Shortstop is covered. Sitting around while teams fill their needs will leave the Twins holding their bag of dollars wondering why they couldn't get anyone better than !@#$%^. Time to work Falvey. Oh, the above moves still leave the Twins with money to spend and below $110M.

 

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, #3Killer said:

Gloom and doom. Posters on this site are really downers!!! We have a really good starting rotation with many options. Some who don’t earn a spot can jump to the bullpen. Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Larnach all have the ability to play way over what they have shown. Jeffers is totally under-rated.  Keaschal started great but now we have to make him feel bad because he doesn’t meet Twins Daily fielding standards/ add Lee to that. Bitch, bitch, bitch!!! Front office sucks!! New manager won’t be a change, coaches suck!!!!

I coached HS sports for 44 years - one thing I found was if you didn’t believe in your kids and expect them to succeed- they wouldn’t!!!!! 

I hear ya - the consistent negativity here never wains!

They do have a very competitive Rotation with guys that have been in the SHOW or have shown promise at MiLB level. Shifting a guy like Matthews to backend PEN guy or some similar move is a real option.

Orze - Sands - Topa - Funderburk are all adequate pieces for a solid PEN…… Raya - Prielipp - Adams - Klein and probably 2-3 other guys I missed can have a real opportunity to add PEN depth/effectiveness.

They need a bat and they need 2 relievers from FA. I like Arraez due to the known quantity regarding consistent productivity. If he hits in the 5 spot every day he has minimum of 85 RBI through his 185 plus hits and 30 or less strikeouts……. Acquire  WHOEVER, as long as it’s fact based and not “hopeful” acquisition.

I’ve been saying since October that the infusion of $425M or more wasn’t charity and that there had to be some expectations for TEAM success/competitiveness in ‘26 attached to the money from investors. I really don’t see any “inside info” coming from Dan Hayes of the Athletic nor anyone at TD. I don’t know why people think the Twins would tell anyone their plans? It’s common sense moves v. Pohlad’s potential reluctance to care about results.

This “they may spend up to $110M & is that better than a rebuild?……” Another wild guess total - what if they spend $127M due to right deals coming together? How good could they be if the spread $32M (above the current $95M) over 4 players in FA?

Hopeful, but not naive……….anxious to see what Team looks like on March 1st!

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You need to elaborate because I am not sure what you are getting at.  Are you suggesting that other modest revenue teams that reached the playoffs did so because they acquired players that produced 4 WAR?  If the other Brewers teams I listed we ca look at other successful franchises and determine the relative impact of trading for prospects.   In the past 25 years, the Guardians have had seven 92 win teams and the Rays have six.  Players acquired as prospects produced 40% of the Rays WAR and 44% for the Guardians.  How many of those teams do you suppose make the playoffs without the players they acquired as prospects?

Very few teams win without elite players. You want to insist that teams with just above average players are the reason they win, nothing I point out is going to change that. 

[Riverbrian]

Last off-season... we were just a Ty France move away. 

This off-season... after earning pick #3 in the upcoming draft because they were not just a Ty France type move away. 

The Twins are going to approach it as if they are just a Ty France type move away.

Because it worked real well last off-season and we are in better shape this off-seasokn without Correa and an entire bullpen. 

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Very few teams win without elite players. You want to insist that teams with just above average players are the reason they win, nothing I point out is going to change that. 

When did I ever suggest teams don't need elite players?  I have given may examples and I would guess all of the examples have elite players.  The question is how were the other contributing players acquired  because we know from examples like the Angels or even this year's twins team that a couple of ewlite players is not nearly enough.  You are reaching a silly conclusion in order to support a narrative instead of actually looking at the hard facts I provided.  It's not an opinion that 44% of Cleveland's WAR came from players acquired as prospects.   How often do we hear that it takes an entire roster to win.  Therefore, we should ask how all of the players that contributed significantly were acquired should we not?  

Shouldn't we ask how a team like the Guardians been successful?  They do in fact have one elite player that has provided multiple seasons of elite performance.  I doubt anyone on this board would suggest he is not a huge part of their success.  We also all know from examples like the Angels that a superstar or even two are not nearly enough.  Shouldn't ask how the most successful modest revenue teams assemble enough talent to contend.  Why ignore all the other information that tells us how they were successful?

BTW … The Guardians have had a few players other than Rameriz over the past decade contribute 4 WAR to playoff teams.  Kwan, Gimenez, Sanatana, Bieber, and Clevinger all had one 4 WAR season. Lindor, and Kluber had two so they had a total of 9 players reach 4 WAR in 5 seasons.  5 of the 9 were produced by players acquired as prospects, the others were drafted.  

They no doubt would not have been successful without Rameriz,  Do you think they would not have been successful had they not acquired several other key players as prospects?