4 Twins Prospects Most Likely to Be Lost in 2025 Rule 5 Draft

[Eric Blonigen]

On Wednesday, as the MLB Winter Meetings wind down, teams will make their selections in the 2025 Rule 5 Draft. The Twins protected most of the expected names: Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Hendry Mendez, Kendry Rojas, and Gabriel González. They also chose to protect one semi-surprising player, in John Klein. However, in adding six guys to the 40-man, they left a few surprising names unprotected. Some of them may be lost to other teams.

It’s been a few years since they have lost anyone, but this year's crop may be better (and closer to the majors) than anyone Minnesota has left exposed since 2020. There are four names in particular to watch when the Draft begins.

1) Kala’i Rosario - Corner OF / DH

Rosario is available in this pool for the second straight season. After 2024, it made some sense. That season, he had a .726 OPS as a right fielder, and his defensive chops are lacking, even far down the defensive spectrum. Now, however, his situation is different. In 2025, he walked more, struck out less, and added power, finishing the season with an .844 OPS (though it all came in Double A). More impressively, he added speed to his game, swiping 32 bags in 39 tries. While his best position is probably DH, a team that isn’t planning on contending in 2026 could very well be tantalized by the power-speed combination and stash him at the back of the bench as a fifth outfielder and part-time DH option.

While he’s not quite ready for the majors, he has spent the past two seasons at Double-A Wichita and is certainly destined for Triple A at this point. Could a team like the White Sox, Rockies, or Pirates decide to take a chance on simply skipping a step?

2) C.J. Culpepper - Right-handed Starting Pitcher

It’s surprising the Twins chose not to protect C.J. Culpepper, as he looks destined to be a big league pitcher. He boasts a deep arsenal of pitches, with several having the potential to be average or better. His command has come and gone, but he's enjoyed stretches of strong results. He has struggled with injuries and illness over the past two seasons, spending two months on the IL with a forearm strain in 2024 and another two with a pinched nerve in his throwing arm in 2025.

In 2025, he pitched to a 2.43 ERA across 59 1/3 innings, but his underlying metrics were less favorable. His velo was down almost two ticks; his walk rate was up; and his strikeouts were down. This led to a FIP almost two full runs worse than his on-paper results. Perhaps the question marks around the combo of health and effectiveness give the Twins confidence he won’t be chosen, or perhaps they don’t see a path to a future with the team.

However, one can look to 2020 for a comp that should have given them pause. In that year’s Rule 5 Draft, the Orioles chose Tyler Wells, a tall right-handed pitcher whom the Twins chose not to protect after he'd undergone Tommy John surgery mid-season in 2019 and missed the 2020 season due to cancellation. He’s been average-ish both by results and by Pitching+, but has struggled with injuries that have caused him to miss most of the past two seasons.

It’s easy to envision a scenario in which a team will select Culpepper, then stash him in the bullpen or use him in mop-up situations while letting him continue to work on refining his pitch mix or sequencing.

3) Kyler Fedko, OF

Kyler Fedko was always unlikely to crack the 2026 Twins roster. After all, while he’s an outfielder, he’s not left-handed. (We kid, we kid.) He’s been a slow mover through the minors and has been old for each level, but in 2025, he put it all together. Fedko posted an .854 OPS in the highest levels of the minors, while playing all three outfield positions. He was also a force on the basepaths, stealing 38 bases in 46 tries. Saints fans had a 30/30 watch going in the last week of the season, but he ended up with just 28 bombs.

More likely than not, his future is as a Quadruple-A player, even if his 2025 gains are sustainable. Yet, he’s the sort of player on whom teams sometimes gamble to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. One can look back to 2020 (again), when the Tigers chose outfielder Akil Baddoo, to see a comp. Baddoo had a good rookie season, producing 1.4 fWAR. He failed to adapt to the league’s adjustments, was worth just 0.1 fWAR over parts of the next four seasons, and is currently a free agent.

4) Cory Lewis, Right-handed Starting Pitcher

Cory Lewis is a knuckleballer, but not your typical type (if there is such a thing). Most knucklers resort to it as a way to reinvent a flagging career, and they rely on the pitch’s unpredictability to get outs. Lewis throws it harder, and has decent stuff aside from that pitch. At every level, he found success—until 2025, when he lost the ability to throw strikes. That’s not uncommon for pitching prospects, or for knuckleballers. When they are off their game, it can be tough to watch. And, it often takes that pitcher type some time to be successful. That said, walking nearly a batter per inning and finishing a season with a 6.30 FIP is a good way to find oneself without a 40-man roster spot.

If you are curious about his 100th-percentile outcome, though, look no further than another hard knuckler the Twins lost in the Rule 5: R.A. Dickey. In 2007, the Twins signed him to a minor-league deal, and thus didn’t protect him. Less than two weeks later, he was gone, selected by the Mariners. The Twins signed him again, to another minor-league contract, the following year. It didn’t go well. However, after the Mets signed him as a free agent, he was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for a three-year stretch, and he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2012.

It’s certainly not realistic to predict the same path for Lewis, but a team could certainly assume they can work with him on limiting walks and see where it goes.

Now it’s time to stay tuned for the draft and see which of these players, if any, find new homes.

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[sampleSizeOfOne]

I will never forgive the Twins if they lose Cory Lewis.

But i suppose i will roll with the loss as i do with so many crazy things these days.

And i will enjoy rooting for a new team.

[mikelink45]

I hope they are all taken and given a chance to succeed.   I always enjoy seeing the players we lose go on to have good careers.

[tony&rodney]

The Rule 5 picks have almost always been pitchers. I would be mildly surprised if either of Kyler Fedko or Ka'lai Rosario were picked up by a team. It would not surprise me if either of C. J. Culpepper or Jose Olivares wind up being picked. The decision to keep a number (easily 4 guys) of Twins on the 40 person roster who will never be given a  run in the organization under any circumstances is strange because it exposes players who could be protected. Still, I don't expect any Twins to be selected in the Rule 5, but there are always surprises. Once a team picks a player in the Rule 5 draft there are often conversations that include trades so that the team making the pick can slide the chosen player into their system in late March.

[Jeff K]

I am very concerned about Culpepper and somewhat concerned about Fedko.  As Tony & Rodney pointed out, there were plenty of players protected that have no chance of a meaningful contribution to the big club.

[miracleb]

Lewis struggled massively with strikes this past year.  Any GM taking him would be under a lot of pressure on every walk Lewis were to give up.....even in mop up duty.  His 2025 season puts a big damper on his future.....even with the Twins.  He won't be taken.

[arby58]

20 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

I will never forgive the Twins if they lose Cory Lewis.

But i suppose i will roll with the loss as i do with so many crazy things these days.

And i will enjoy rooting for a new team.

Are you his uncle?

Even in a good year (2024), he struggled with control - 40 walks in 79 IP, leading to a WHIP of 1.316, and that was his good year. Last year was  dreadful, with 68 walks in 73 IP and an 'other world' WHIP of 2.068 - not surprisingly, his ERA was north of 7. I don't see how the Twins could have possibly protected a 25 year old pitcher after a year like that. Where would be the accountability?

[Doctor Wu]

Culpepper seems like the player most likely picked in the draft. As Tony&Rodney said, it's usually pitchers that are picked in the early part of the draft. Still puzzling why the Twins left some of the borderline players on the 40-man. I only hope that WE can find a keeper if we choose to pick someone. 

[LewFordLives]

Question: Are the Twins allowed to take someone even though the 40 man is full? Can they take someone and then clear a space?

[luckylager]

12 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Question: Are the Twins allowed to take someone even though the 40 man is full? Can they take someone and then clear a space?

Gotta make space before they add anyone to the 40. 

[TJSweens]

I would have kept any one of these 4 on the 40 man roster over Julien. I'm baffled as to why they insist on giving another shot to a guy who has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can't hit or field.

[luckylager]

Given the current condition of the Twins bullpen, why not give Culpepper a shot at the back end?

[old nurse]

The author does a fine job of laying out what these player won’t be selected. 1.5 WAR players are useful to winning only when the team has 3 players capable of 4 war  if the thought was any of the position players were capable of 2+ WAR they would be protected.  Wells shows why oft injured pitchers are a bad investment. They are good trade bait to get AAA outfielders 

[bunsen82]

Olivares seems to have the most juice so far for the rule 5 draft followed by Culpepper.   Neither appears likely to stick in my opinion.   

I really it find it questionable,  we still have Gasper, Kriedler, Outman, Fitzgerald, Julien, McCusker  all on the 40 man currently.   Even still most likely, those first 4 will be off as we have trades, signings or rule 5 draft picks ourselves.  

It is interesting Klein is the one the Twins were more worried about that anyone else.  He was the semi surprise add.   

[bunsen82]

Honestly,  I am not worried about any of the players be picked and then being kept.  Other than Culpepper and Fedko, the majority are a long ways from the majors.  At best Fedko seems to be a 4th outfielder.  

 

[bunsen82]

29 minutes ago, luckylager said:

Given the current condition of the Twins bullpen, why not give Culpepper a shot at the back end?

It appears they like Adams, Klein, Morris, and Ohl better.  I don't have many concerns on the pitcher 40 man list.  There is a very real possibility we pick some up in the rule 5 draft as well.  Right now I would take Monegro, Burkhalter or Mullins over any other prospect we have unprotected.  

[chpettit19]

Not worried about losing anyone in the Rule 5. Far more interested in the fact that they haven't cleared a single spot to make a selection (yet, to my knowledge). Odds are they wouldn't keep whoever they selected, but it's surprising they don't look at the available names and think any of them have a better chance at succeeding in the majors than about 10 names currently on the 40-man. 

Yet another reason I hate this plan of trying to compete this year with this collection of players. Drop Ryan freaking Kreidler and take a shot at a young guy who can help in the future. And drop James Outman and take a shot at another young guy who can help in the future. And...

[bunsen82]

Monegro I think has the highest upside, and the best potential to convert to reliever and increase his stuff.  6'4" - a fastball that dies during his outings,  a pretty good curveball, slider and splitter.  Good stats at each level he has played at.  

The only position player I think is interesting is Susac, but he would need to be the backup catcher and I just don't see that happening.   

[twinsfansd]

It is important to understand the rules with adding these players to the 40 man roster.

If any of Outman or Kreidler, etc had been DFAd to add some of these players, those new players are frozen on the roster and can not be sent down or even DFAd if one needs to be removed to sign a free agent for instance. The only way to remove them from the roster is to release them straight out. Then you have exposed them to all 29 teams with no restrictions, like the rule 5 would have. 

Bottom line is that it is all about team flexibility. These guys really DO know what they are doing.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Monegro I think has the highest upside, and the best potential to convert to reliever and increase his stuff.  6'4" - a fastball that dies during his outings,  a pretty good curveball, slider and splitter.  Good stats at each level he has played at.  

The only position player I think is interesting is Susac, but he would need to be the backup catcher and I just don't see that happening.   

They don't have an open 40-man spot to pick anyone. Do you expect them to DFA somebody this morning?

[Chembry]

35 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Monegro I think has the highest upside, and the best potential to convert to reliever and increase his stuff.  6'4" - a fastball that dies during his outings,  a pretty good curveball, slider and splitter.  Good stats at each level he has played at.  

The only position player I think is interesting is Susac, but he would need to be the backup catcher and I just don't see that happening.   

Birdsell is also interesting, but he won't see action in 2026.  He has to stick on the 40man for 90 days to meet the rule 5 requirement, if he isn't going to pitch in 2026. 

On the position side TJ Rumfield (1B) is also worth a look.  TD also identified him as a potential candidate.  In 250g at AAA he has hit .288/.372/.453/.826 OPS/31 HR.  Baseball America also selected Rumfield as one of the position players to watch, along with Susac and many others. 

But, the Twins don't have an open 40man spot.  Let's see if they clear any space prior to the draft today.    

[Permanent Twins Fan]

I don't think either of Rosario or Fedko are likely to get claimed by another team. I was a bit surprised the the Twins didn't protect Culpepper, and I think he is the most likely one of these four to be claimed. The Rule 5 draft has never been something I really paid attention to before, but now with a lot of the Twins acquisitions maybe coming in it, than I will be following it more closely this year.

[bunsen82]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't have an open 40-man spot to pick anyone. Do you expect them to DFA somebody this morning?

Yes I do.  

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Not worried about losing anyone in the Rule 5. Far more interested in the fact that they haven't cleared a single spot to make a selection (yet, to my knowledge). Odds are they wouldn't keep whoever they selected, but it's surprising they don't look at the available names and think any of them have a better chance at succeeding in the majors than about 10 names currently on the 40-man. 

Yet another reason I hate this plan of trying to compete this year with this collection of players. Drop Ryan freaking Kreidler and take a shot at a young guy who can help in the future. And drop James Outman and take a shot at another young guy who can help in the future. And...

Here is a question - so Rule 5 is 2 rounds.  Would you drop both Kriedler. Pick up a pitcher in the 1st and in the 2nd round and pick up Noah Miller to be your backup shortstop.   No bat solid glove.    

[Riverbrian]

The Twins have chosen. They have to choose.

These are choices made from a big pile of players in the middle with marginal differences separating each other. 

An average of 15 players are selected. Maybe 3 to 5 of those players stay on the roster of the team that selected them. 

If we lose 4 players... never to return. That would be amazing. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Here is a question - so Rule 5 is 2 rounds.  Would you drop both Kriedler. Pick up a pitcher in the 1st and in the 2nd round and pick up Noah Miller to be your backup shortstop.   No bat solid glove.    

I know you asked the question to Chia Pet but I want to answer this one. 

I normally don't suggest or care about Rule 5 selections but if there ever was a year... This is the year. 

I'm betting that there are some young 100 MPH arms available.

This is the year to roll the dice on one of them guys for the bullpen.  

I'd feel better with an open roster spot so the Twins could participate. 

McCusker would be my choice to make the necessary room.

If the Twins don't add a decent infielder who can play SS. Kriedler is probably on the 26 man. That would be a bigger problem in my eyes. 

[jmlease1]

I think these are definitely the most likely 4 players to potentially get selected. Odds are not great for actually losing any of them, however.

Rosario adds basically nothing defensively and with position players needing to contribute on almost every roster, he would need to show some level of competence as a hitter immediately, which is a big ask for a guy jumping from AA to MLB. Even if someone takes a flier on him, it would be difficult to roster him all season unless you're a team that's already given up in May...and even then, it's hard to find room for a guy on the 26-man that isn't ready to play. There's a reason COF/DH/1B types don't get picked.

Culpepper is probably the most likely to get picked, and his injury history is almost a bonus for a team willing to pull some shenanigans; you could make him the last guy in your bullpen and then stash him on the IL at various points, potentially. But again, tough to hold for a whole season if he's not able to do at least something.

If Fedko can still play a respectable CF, he might get snapped up by someone looking to take a shot on a guy? For $100K you're basically giving him a tryout to be the 4th or 5th OF and if he looks rough through spring training you can send him back and not worry about it. Actually losing him isn't super likely, and the fact that the Twins didn't call him up last season, in which he performed well and they had nothing to lose, probably resonates around the league to some extent, and his age is a factor. (remember, just because people around here hate the front office and think they're incompetent boobs who should be shot out of a cannon towards Mars doesn't mean the rest of baseball doesn't respect their opinions on things...)

Lewis looks like a stretch: not a high velocity guy, real control problems right now...again, he might get a $100K spring training try-out and/or a team might try and swing a low-impact trade for him using the Rule 5 as a lever...but actually losing him? Seems low.

[Dman]

I wrote earlier that I didn't see the Twins adding anyone in Rule V. Since they protected Rojas, Prielipp, Morris and Klein that is already a slew of young arms on the 40 man to try and work in this year.  That doesn't even include the relatively young and newly added Matthews, Festa, Abel, Adams, Ohl and Raya.  I don't think they need some Rule V arm they can't move up and down in the way of all those arms that need chances as it is.

I agree Culpepper seems the most likely to be taken.  They likely had to choose between Culpepper and Klein and given Culpepper has been injured each year he has been a pro and seems most likely a reliever.  It seems Klein who has thrown more innings and projects better as a potential starter won that contest.  I still think Klein will be a reliever in the end as his deep fly ball tendencies likely won't work out as well at the MLB level, but we'll see. Personally I think there are better arms available in Rule V than Culpepper, but his four pitch mix, decent control and velocity have him as the most likely to be taken IMO. Whether he sticks if taken is hard to say.

Oliveros could be taken, but being only at high A with control issues it seems unlikely that works out well.  When I went to watch him in Beloit he couldn't throw strikes and when he did they were solid hits and he didn't make it out of the first inning.  He wouldn't be my Rule V pick, but he is young and throws a good fastball.  Maybe Colorado?

It is just too hard to keep a position player on the 26 man unless they have elite defense or Speed.  Rosario doesn't have what teams would be looking for IMO.  While Fedko does have some very good traits his age and the fact he likely is a 4th outfielder make him a bit of a burden as a Rule V pick.  I don't see him getting taken mainly because of his age and diminished upside.

We'll see what other teams think, but I believe several on this board that mentioned the Twins were unlikely to have anyone picked will be right.

[luckylager]

The Twins could part ways with Gasper to clear some room on the 40.  He offers little. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Yes I do.  

I hope they do, but I don't have a strong feeling either way.

 

17 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Here is a question - so Rule 5 is 2 rounds.  Would you drop both Kriedler. Pick up a pitcher in the 1st and in the 2nd round and pick up Noah Miller to be your backup shortstop.   No bat solid glove.    

I believe it's essentially 26 rounds if a team wanted to just keep picking. I don't know that I'd be interested in Noah Miller in general, but if my options are Kreidler or Miller, I'd take Miller simply for the youth and great glove. 

Overall, I just hope they drop a position player or 2 and grab some interesting arms.