One Big Thing: Can Zebby Matthews Solve His Singles Problem?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

In ways familiar and excruciatingly new, Zebby Matthews keeps underachieving. He throws 96 miles per hour, and can reach 99 semi-regularly. He has six pitches, including a couple of bat-missing breaking balls. He fills up the strike zone. He even has a great, folksy baseball name—the kind of name baseball needs a really good player or two to have, in every generation. Alas: he's not that really good player, so far. In 25 starts and 117 innings over parts of the last two seasons, Matthews has a 5.92 ERA.

In theory, he should be much better than that. The stuff is certainly better, and so are his peripheral numbers. Matthews has fanned 24.7% of the batters he's faced in the majors, and walked just 6.6%. He had a major home-run problem in his rookie stint last season, but brought that under control in 2025. Though his FIP is a still-underwhelming 4.41, all the building blocks of a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA are here. He just hasn't been that guy—or anything close to it.

The problem—the reason why Matthews has been so unsuccessful—is simple: hitters just keep finding singles against him. He's allowed a .361 batting average on balls in play so far in his career, which is too high to permit any pitcher to function well. Whenever a hurler is running that high a BABIP, the temptation is to declare them unlucky. In Matthews's case, though, that's only half-true, and the half of it that's true is a more lasting and existential kind of bad luck, rather than the fluky kind that time and nature take care of.

First of all, Matthews gives up too many batted balls that have a very good chance to be hits. Of the 192 pitchers who allowed at least 200 batted balls in the majors this season, only two had a higher percentage of those batted balls fall into the bucket Statcast labels "Flares and Burners". That category is made up, basically, of three kinds of hits, though they scatter along a spectrum (rather than neatly subdividing themselves):

• Low line drives
• Extremely hard ground balls
• Softly-hit fly balls at launch angles too low to be pop-ups; the kind that fall between infielders and outfielders

On "Flares and Burners," the global batting average is right around .660. Thus, the fact that Matthews gives up so many of those batted balls is a problem. Here's the other problem: when Matthews allowed those batted balls, opponents batted .789. In that same sample of 192 hurlers, the only one who gave up a higher batting average on flares and burners was Austin Gomber.

We have to engage with both of these facts, but let's start with the second one. That's where a kind of bad luck is infecting Matthews—only, it's not the bad luck of a ball just being hit to the wrong spot four or five times, where nothing could be done. Rather, it's the bad luck of having pitched in front of the Twins' defense. Unfortunately for Matthews, that group is unlikely to be stronger next year than it was in 2025.

For all pitchers, the Twins allowed a .699 batting average on flares and burners this season. Only the Angels were worse. Batted balls like those test a defense as much as any others, and the Twins failed that test more often than almost any other team. They simply don't have the personnel to convert those plays into outs at even an average level. 

Unless the team rededicates itself to defense this winter, the likely starters at third base, shortstop and second base will be Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall, respectively. Those three are all average-minus defenders. There's a slightly better chance that Minnesota will have above-average fielders in the outfield, but Byron Buxton is aging and might not be long for center. It won't turn out any better if Matthews shows up in 2026 and continues giving up batted balls like these. They're hits most of the time, and the poor defense behind Twins hurlers will exacerbate that.

Let's talk, then, about the fact that Matthews gives up so many of those batted balls in the first place. Is that something he can fix? Or is it an intrinsic aspect of his game?

Alas, it's closer to the latter. Unless Matthews makes some changes to the way he pitches, he's likely to keep giving up a lot of those batted balls. He limits very hard-hit fly balls (the Barrels you've probably heard much more about, relative to the flares and burners) reasonably well, and his stuff profile can induce whiffs, but he's not good at manipulating batters' launch angles. That begets a lot of near-automatic singles.

Matthews fills up the zone, even though he's walked more batters since reaching the big leagues than he did in the minors. Among the 260 pitchers who threw at least 1,000 pitches this year, he was in the 78th percentile for Called Strike Probability, according to Baseball Prospectus. That reflects not just the frequency with which a ball is technically in the zone, but the average likelihood of a pitch they throw being called a strike if not swung at. As such, his standing within the league means that Matthews is throwing pretty hittable stuff; he leaves a lot of white on either side of the ball. He doesn't perfectly target the edges, laterally or at the top and bottom of the zone.

Location is an issue, then. Unfortunately, so is raw stuff. Only Matthews's slider reliably avoids being hittable; hitters square him up a lot. A change of pitch mix (ratcheting up the frequency with which he throws his sinker to righties, for instance) could help, but it's not obvious that he can either shape or locate that pitch (or any other, save his very good slider) well enough to prevent an abundance of this kind of hit.

Even if there's no major roster overhaul, the Twins could use their very best defensive lineups behind Matthews in 2026 and achieve a modest improvement in outcomes. Even if Matthews can't avoid giving up this kind of contact when hitters do touch him, he might be able to miss more bats by using strike-to-ball breaking or offspeed stuff more often, or by better elevating his fastball. There are plenty of ways he can take a big step forward next season, but doing so will require at least some mitigation of the tendency to give up lots and lots of singles by letting opponents hit lots and lots of balls with high expected batting averages—even if the high expected slugging average that plagues some similar hurlers isn't among his problems.

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[TL]

Great read! 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Please send a copy of this excellent article to Ryan Jeffers and to whomever the # 2 catcher for 2026 will be.  Pitch selection and location is critical in order to effectuate change in Mathews' results. Also keep in mind that Lee was probably not the SS in most of Mathews' games, Lewis was injured much of the time, Keschal was not the 2B for the majority of Mathews' games.  C-4, Clemens, Castro, Julian, Bride, some Martin and some Miranda, played a lot of infield during Mathews' games. First base was not a problem with Santana and France playing good defense there.  But Clemens and Julian played a lot of first base, which was not their primary position. Plus the infielders were constantly shuffled between positions and given days off and injured and platooned. The corner outfielders were frequently slow  and also shuffled. Bader was a breath of fresh air. I don't remember how much Buck played CF during Mathew's games in 2024. I content that this constant shuffling may have been a large part of the problem with the Twins unacceptable and unsuccessful defense. No wonder the starting pitchers may be frustrated, especially with the bull pen now having been gutted. This was no way to run a railroad. 

[MinnInPa]

typical Twins pitcher ...doesnt throw many swing and miss pitches ..or called strikes.....like opponents do to Twins hitters

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

 

With the shutdown coming up after the 2026 season, this offseason is going to be VERY interesting for many teams. For example, the Angels just signed Kurt Suzuki to a 1 year deal which feels SUPER odd for any manager of any team to be quite honest.

That said, on the field, I wouldn't mind at all a focus to be on defense with additions they make through the year. I didn't hate how Royce looked at 3b, but we'll have to find Keaschall a home (and maybe that's 1B or LF if not at 2b?) but I also wouldn't hate to get a strong defensive catcher in there to allow Jeffers to catch against lefties and/or dh against righties and lefties on a more regular basis.

But yeah, upping the team's defense from below average to even average will have a huge effect on runs allowed as a team. 

[old nurse]

41 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Please send a copy of this excellent article to Ryan Jeffers and to whomever the # 2 catcher for 2026 will be.  Pitch selection and location is critical in order to effectuate change in Mathews' results. Also keep in mind that Lee was probably not the SS in most of Mathews' games, Lewis was injured much of the time, Keschal was not the 2B for the majority of Mathews' games.  C-4, Clemens, Castro, Julian, Bride, some Martin and some Miranda, played a lot of infield during Mathews' games. First base was not a problem with Santana and France playing good defense there.  But Clemens and Julian played a lot of first base, which was not their primary position. Plus the infielders were constantly shuffled between positions and given days off and injured and platooned. The corner outfielders were frequently slow  and also shuffled. Bader was a breath of fresh air. I don't remember how much Buck played CF during Mathew's games in 2024. I content that this constant shuffling may have been a large part of the problem with the Twins unacceptable and unsuccessful defense. No wonder the starting pitchers may be frustrated, especially with the bull pen now having been gutted. This was no way to run a railroad. 

Pitch location is critical. It is on the pitcher to do it. If a blogger can figure that out about the pitcher, teams in baseball have people who figure that out with all of the data they have available. How to correct it is the age old problem. Putting a. Ball an inch left/right/up/down is easier said than done. 

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

typical Twins pitcher ...doesnt throw many swing and miss pitches ..or called strikes.....like opponents do to Twins hitters

Maybe when Terry Ryan was still running the team but not since.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Please send a copy of this excellent article to Ryan Jeffers and to whomever the # 2 catcher for 2026 will be.  Pitch selection and location is critical in order to effectuate change in Mathews' results. Also keep in mind that Lee was probably not the SS in most of Mathews' games, Lewis was injured much of the time, Keschal was not the 2B for the majority of Mathews' games.  C-4, Clemens, Castro, Julian, Bride, some Martin and some Miranda, played a lot of infield during Mathews' games. First base was not a problem with Santana and France playing good defense there.  But Clemens and Julian played a lot of first base, which was not their primary position. Plus the infielders were constantly shuffled between positions and given days off and injured and platooned. The corner outfielders were frequently slow  and also shuffled. Bader was a breath of fresh air. I don't remember how much Buck played CF during Mathew's games in 2024. I content that this constant shuffling may have been a large part of the problem with the Twins unacceptable and unsuccessful defense. No wonder the starting pitchers may be frustrated, especially with the bull pen now having been gutted. This was no way to run a railroad. 

Defense isn't on Falvey's spreadsheet because you really can't gauge it very well. But defense has a huge impact on the game, especially for pitchers like Matthews. Julien was a huge liability at 2B, but Baldelli kept playing him there hoping Correa & Santana could cover for him. Correa had a great instinct for positioning himself & other INFers he quarterbacked. After Correa was gone, they stopped playing Julien at 2B. Lee might be a solid SS, but he lacks range & experience to position himself & the other INFers. The starting INFers might be solid bu they are slightly below average. We have to do better up the middle. If we had focused on defense, especially up the middle, Matthews would be much better, maybe outstanding.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with tarheel.  When you have a pitcher with the "stuff" that Zebby Matthews has, he shouldn't be getting hit at the rate he is.  He needs to mix his pitches and change speeds more often.  It's said he's got as many as 6 or 7 pitches.  And with a fastball that averages 96/97 and hits 99 on occasion that's a good foundation to start with.

Maybe Matthews needs to narrow his pitch selection to 4, dropping the 2 worst pitches he has.  His fastball is a solid foundation.  Focus on commanding it better, especially elevating it for strikeouts.  You will get no argument from me that our defense is rather slow and unathletic. 

At least to begin the year, we can probably count on Lewis at 3B, Lee at SS and Keaschall at 2B.  Buxton is solid in CF.  Once some trades are made, I would expect our corner OF to look much better defensively in 2026 when Larnach is subtracted and Wallner, is either traded or playing DH on a full time basis.   

That still leaves the Twins lacking defensively at Catcher and 1B, so we will just have to see how the off season plays out.  The formula has always been pretty simple for pitchers:  Those that can command and effectively locate their pitches are successful.  Those that consistently fall behind hitters, or make non competitive pitches at 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 usually struggle.  They are consistently...inconsistent.

SWR really seemed to turn a corner in his last 3-4 starts.  Matthews, Abel and Bradley all finished the season on a high note, giving Twins fans a glimpse of hope.  It will also be very interesting to see once the Managerial hire is made, who this new Manager brings in as pitching coach and how he fills his staff.  The right pitching coach could unlock the tremendous potential several of our young SP prospects possess.  

[Otaknam]

Suzuki must have been desperate for a managing job to accept an insulting one year contract. That just shows they don’t really have confidence in him.

[Otaknam]

Young pitchers develop at different rates. They can spend the offseason adding a little more zip or movement to their fastball. Or learn an entirely new pitch that complements their repertoire. Or change an arm slot or some mechanical fix that helps with command. I’m looking for Matthews to make a solid jump in 2026. What the team really needs is for Abel and Bradley to show significant improvement in command. Someone from the trades needs to step up to a number two starter, like Ryan or Lopez. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Suzuki must have been desperate for a managing job to accept an insulting one year contract. That just shows they don’t really have confidence in him.

Well that or owners/teams don't expect a 2027 season to happen. Either on time or at all.

I also wonder then, hypothetically, we won't trade Ryan because team's won't value team control for the 2027 season as much BECAUSE of the lockout coming. 

[FlyingFinn]

Really? We are overly concerned about a young pitcher giving up too many singles. Singles! That's much better than a concern about a pitcher giving up too many homers. What reduces singles - better defense, especially team speed out there. Turn a double play when you should rather than getting only one out takes care of singles. 

Zebby does need to focus more with 2 outs. He gives up too many hits/runs with 2 outs.

[LA Vikes Fan]

So here’s the conundrum. First,  let’s identify the problem. Lewis was actually above average defensively at third base last year. The big below average player was Lee at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, Keaschall at second base. Keaschall absolutely can hit it and needs to be in the lineup basically every day. Lee, not so much. 1B is open, but Wallner is a statue in right field and Larnach  can’t play defense anywhere.and neither has ever played 1B. So what do we do?

Keaschall has to play and we don’t have anyone to replace him at second base. Still, I would think about moving him to first base but that doesn’t work. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of your infield because Lee stunk at second base last year and you’d rather he was more of a utility player. That means probably going out into the Marketplace for two middle infielders or promoting Culpepper to the majors to start the season to fill at least one of the spots. I don’t think that’s likely because theyveill want to keep his service time open by waiting till at least May, and he hasn’t really played much at AAA yet. Eeles is completely unproven, and Fitzgerald can’t hit.There really is no internal solution to this problem.

Given the lack of an internal solution, I think we’re going to see Lee at shortstop and a Keaschall at second base with some sort of fill-in at first base to start the season. I’m hopeful that Culpepper will be the starting shortstop by June with Lee a more utility type player. Keaschall  needs a season at second base to see if he can actually play there. The only other option I see is to pick up a defense first veteran shortstop but the guys out there can’t hit.. No real good options here so I think this is the way to go. Unfortunately, that don’t help ground ball pitchers. 

[Dman]

I didn't watch every game he pitched in fact only saw a couple of a starts but the ones I saw there was very little weak contact and whole lot of solid contact that I don't think infielders could do much about.

  The crazy thing is he gives up a lot of those hits after getting to two strikes.  Once they can foul away the slider it seems like contact is coming one way or another.  He's been better about being out of the zone but then seems to get stuck in full counts.  It seems like pitch sequencing or a better change of pace pitch is needed for him to be better. He's got great velocity to work from so you'd think the results would be better.  We'll see how 2026 goes. He's a big part of the future if he can put things together.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Really? We are overly concerned about a young pitcher giving up too many singles. Singles! That's much better than a concern about a pitcher giving up too many homers. What reduces singles - better defense, especially team speed out there. Turn a double play when you should rather than getting only one out takes care of singles. 

Zebby does need to focus more with 2 outs. He gives up too many hits/runs with 2 outs.

Anyone following the Game Forums (yes it's its own world) know that the giving up two-strike and two-out hits and runs was the downfall for most of our pitchers in 25. Adjusting placement of (or improving) defense was something Correa could pull off. This article illustrates that it just wasn't a vague impression; hit em where they ain't is a skill that can make all the difference. 

 

Someone has to pay attention in the field to what the battery is doing. 

[Blyleven2011]

Matthew is making progress in the major leagues , yes he's giving up to many singles but he's cut down the homeruns allowed in 2025 ...

I'd like to see Matthew's command the high pitch  , give the hitter a different eye level , Clemens ( rocket roger ) lived up high and batters chased ...

Matthew's has the stuff , he is no Terry Felton who had stuff too but never won a game  ...

[jmlease1]

Improving the defense will certainly help Matthews and likely bring his ERA down closer to his FIP; YMMV on whether or not the Twins can or will accomplish that internally? Lewis showed in the second half that he's better than average at 3B defensively, so that should help some.

Keaschall is a real question mark, but with a decent offseason, a spring training where he's actually playing the field, and a focus at 2B, we will certainly find out a lot more. To me, he looked like a guy who needed reps more than anything else at 2B; he's played relatively little in the field in the past 2 seasons, didn't play the field in spring training, etc. Having not used his arm regularly with the TJ I'm guessing no throws felt routine to him and there were clearly moments where he was thinking about making the throw when the ball clanged off his glove. Hopefully he'll be well-recovered from the last injury to allow him to do defensive work in the off-season and get reps in game situations in spring training. Too soon to give up on him at 2B, and he should have the tools to be at least average.

Brooks Lee is definitely the area of biggest concern: he simply may not have the range and arm to be anything other than a below-average SS. He fields what he gets to and makes good decisions out there, but he's slow and doesn't have the plus arm. Who knows what happens with 1B, but if it's Clemens he's a quality defender there, with good range and a solid glove.

I think the bigger area is whether changes in pitch mix can help Matthews be more reliable and finish off hitters. Can he really command 6 pitches? Might make a real different if he can drop 1 or 2 from his mix at least for now and focus more on his better offerings. The slider is easily his best pitch right now, but looking at his pitches on Baseball Savant, I have to wonder if the 4-seamer will play up more if he can work on the edges of the zone and get out of the heart of the plate? The plots on the changeup and little used curve suggest he isn't very consistent when they get used. Can he tighten that up or should those get shelved for a while?

Lot of talent, hope he can figure it out. He has stretches where you think "this can really be a guy!" and other times where he can't finish guys off and the hits just start flying.

[Teflon]

I thought it said he had a "shingles" problem. Now days they have vaccines for shingles - it would be nice if they had one for singles, too.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

typical Twins pitcher ...doesnt throw many swing and miss pitches ..or called strikes.....like opponents do to Twins hitters

The Twins batters were 11th worst in MLB for strikeouts.  The Twins batters were 15th best in MLB for strikeouts.  Pretty overall middle of the pack for both.  Neither would seem to be an egregious problem.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

So here’s the conundrum. First,  let’s identify the problem. Lewis was actually above average defensively at third base last year. The big below average player was Lee at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, Keaschall at second base. Keaschall absolutely can hit it and needs to be in the lineup basically every day. Lee, not so much. 1B is open, but Wallner is a statue in right field and Larnach  can’t play defense anywhere.and neither has ever played 1B. So what do we do?

Keaschall has to play and we don’t have anyone to replace him at second base. Still, I would think about moving him to first base but that doesn’t work. That leaves a gaping hole in the middle of your infield because Lee stunk at second base last year and you’d rather he was more of a utility player. That means probably going out into the Marketplace for two middle infielders or promoting Culpepper to the majors to start the season to fill at least one of the spots. I don’t think that’s likely because theyveill want to keep his service time open by waiting till at least May, and he hasn’t really played much at AAA yet. Eeles is completely unproven, and Fitzgerald can’t hit.There really is no internal solution to this problem.

Given the lack of an internal solution, I think we’re going to see Lee at shortstop and a Keaschall at second base with some sort of fill-in at first base to start the season. I’m hopeful that Culpepper will be the starting shortstop by June with Lee a more utility type player. Keaschall  needs a season at second base to see if he can actually play there. The only other option I see is to pick up a defense first veteran shortstop but the guys out there can’t hit.. No real good options here so I think this is the way to go. Unfortunately, that don’t help ground ball pitchers. 

Kody Clemens is probably their best choice at 2B on defense.

[DocBauer]

Absolutely not being snarky, but we really have a measurement that includes "ducksnorts"...old school term for sure...as part of BABIP data? Crazy.

I'm with others that the defense should be better in 2026. Lewis has turned in to fine 3B. Keaschall has all the range you could want, he just needs to be able to actually PLAY to iron out some awkwardness he's shown so far when he gets to the ball. And he doesn't need a cannon at 2B, just a healthy arm. I think Lee has enough skill to develop in to an average SS. But we want/need better than that. Unfortunately, we have to hope for average until Culpepper is ready. 1B is a huge question mark right now, and I'm not going to speculate on it at this time.

I think we're going to see more of Martin and Roden in the OF, and that's going to help. And Rodriguez and Jenkins, whenever each debuts, have a quality defensive profile.

While I only enough knowledge on pitching to be dangerous, and offer up some very basic thoughts, I believe Matthews biggest problems probably come down to sequencing, tweaking some of his arsenal, and finding enough command and confidence to play in the edges more.

It's up to the coaches, and the catchers, to work on sequencing. It's up to the coaches to help him make adjustments on his actual pitches to make them more effective. Does he need a grip or arm angle adjustment to harness his secondaries to simply make them more complete/dangerous? 

He looks really good in flashes, for a whole game, or parts of games. And he still gets a lot of K's. But he also throws a lot of pitches. So far, he doesn't seem to be able to finish off batters efficiently at times.

I think that also goes back to something I heard when he first came up, and that I've heard rather persistently, and that is him probably filling up the zone TOO much. That maybe he has to learn to play the edges better for more weak contact in the form of slow grounders and pop ups and the such. Even a few more swings and misses could make a big difference.

I'm not dismissing better defense will help him, as well as the entire staff. But from reading about him, from looking at box scores, from watching him in games, it just seems that some of his pitches need just a little more bite and he could be nasty. A couple more weak contact grounders and pop ups and he gets out of innings quicker, lowers his pitch count, and would have fewer "flares and burners". I know it's not as simple as I make it sound, but he so often just looks so close to taking his game up another notch.

He appears capable of being a really good ML SP. Can the staff...whoever they are going to be in 2026...make a couple tweaks/adjustments to his pitches and sequencing to over that hump? I sure hope so. Because when I watch him, I still see a lot of potential.

SIDE NOTE: SWR and Bradley are out of options.  So even if Matthews has a great ST, he may still go down to St Paul to begin the season the way Ober did a few years ago. But at some point, it's possible Matthews or Bradley may shift to the pen, even if only temporarily. But that's also true of Abel and Morris, etc.

[h2oface]

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Defense isn't on Falvey's spreadsheet because you really can't gauge it very well. But defense has a huge impact on the game, especially for pitchers like Matthews. Julien was a huge liability at 2B, but Baldelli kept playing him there hoping Correa & Santana could cover for him. Correa had a great instinct for positioning himself & other INFers he quarterbacked. After Correa was gone, they stopped playing Julien at 2B. Lee might be a solid SS, but he lacks range & experience to position himself & the other INFers. The starting INFers might be solid bu they are slightly below average. We have to do better up the middle. If we had focused on defense, especially up the middle, Matthews would be much better, maybe outstanding.

I saw so many hits go through because of where they positioned themselves, even with Correa. Over shifting. The hits were going where a fielder perhaps should have been, and were outsmarting themselves with the excessive shift.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

I saw so many hits go through because of where they positioned themselves, even with Correa. Over shifting. The hits were going where a fielder perhaps should have been, and were outsmarting themselves with the excessive shift.

Santana overshifted a lot to compensate for Julien & sooooo many INF hits got through between him & 1B. I imagine that Correa did the same.

[LA Vikes Fan]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Kody Clemens is probably their best choice at 2B on defense.

You may be right, but can he hit enough to make it worthwhile even for 2026? The problem with playing him at second and Keaschall at first is you don’t develop Keaschall. Clements at best a stop gap, so that might help for 2026 but doesn’t get you going in the right direction longer term. This team is not likely to be a contender in 2026. 

[bean5302]

Using things like FIP or xFIP to predict a pitcher's future performance without history supporting the correlation is a bit dangerous. Not all pitchers perform up to or down to the advanced metrics.

Brandon Pfaadt is what appears to be becoming a messy example.

Matthews' barrel rate is way too high and he struggles with hard contact like Varland struggled as a starter. I'm also concerned with Matthew's ability to stay healthy after adding so much velocity. Just have to see how he evolves, I think. There's certainly upside, but there's definitely work to be done as well.

[Bodie]

A guy who can throw mid-90s all day long, and upper 90s at any time. Supposedly elite offspeed pitches.  "Good enough" control to not be behind in the count regularly, and walks few batters.  More than enough "tools" listed by me to be a borderline elite starter. But we get a 5+ ERA - not even serviceable, let alone elite.

Check the tape.  Better yet, let Molitor, Mauer and Morneau check the tape. He is tipping his pitches too much.  Let good hitters (the 3 Ms above) find out what his "tip" is.

A guy with his stuff and command should be at least a run better than him - even with a Sano/Julien/Miranda head on his shoulders. Unless he's throwing batting practice, i.e. the hitters know what is coming. 

[stringer bell]

Historically a lot of guys start their careers with bloated ERAs, despite having good to excellent stuff. I see the same thing in most of the Twins younger pitchers, particularly Matthews. He had a severe two-out problem and his command was questionable, mostly missing his spots with pitches closer to the heart of the plate. It is interesting to me, but not quite a deal killer, that he allowed a lot of soft singles. I would like to see what results with a bigger sample before Matthews entirely changes his approach or repertoire.

[twinstalker]

Flares and Burners, as defined, are what BABIP is all about.  Getting "unlucky" is simply having too many of those, and of course it's not all luck.  Generally the pitcher is responsible for a portion (how hittable is his ball?).  A lot of pitchers deal with this early in their career and figure it out to the extent they can.