Should Minnesota Twins Revisit Alleged Joe Ryan Trade Package With Boston Red Sox?

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Why would Boston trade a starting pitcher like Tolle unless they don’t think he will make it as a starter. That is the only reason a team should be willing to trade a cost controlled arm unless the are getting a prearb pitcher back.  For 2 years of Ryan they aren’t giving  up a potential front line starter.  

If you think you are actually a front line starter from being a true contender it makes all the sense in the world. Especially considering Tolle is 22 and it seems like he's just not quite ready yet. 

I can PROMISE you the Red Sox didn't come to some conclusion that one of the top pitching prospects in the game has no future as a major league starter at the age of 22...and then proceeded to call him up to the majors to start important games at the end of their playoffs hopeful season.  

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

NO!

The hardest thing to find in MLB is quality SP.

This is defensible position, especially considering the sad state of internally developed pitching in the Twins system. I can see why they focused on bringing in some SP talent in their trade offs. There are about 600 minor league SP prospects with 60+ IP, and in the top 100 by xFIP, there is only one Twins prospect, Cole Peschl. Only one more in the top 200, Prielipp. 

That's really bad results for a front office whose stated goal was to build a pitching pipeline. A flat out failure if we're being honest. 

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Someone mentioned Peralta and Gray. The former is on an inexpensive bargain deal, which means he isn't going anywhere.

Peralta will be in his last season under Milwaukee's control. Milwaukee is a well run organization and tends to trade away players at the end of their team control. Brandon Woodruff is actually a mutual option, not a team option like I believed, so I do imagine he's going to decline the option, which would increase the likelihood Milwaukee makes every effort to sign Peralta to an extension, but we'll see.  

[DocBauer]

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who is the third? SWR?

This team cannot afford to pay big money to pitchers in their mid-30s. They already have his ages 30 and 31 seasons. They don't want to spend $25-30M a season for ages 32, 33, 34.

Ober is still the #3 SP until someone overtakes him, IMO. Until told otherwise, I will hold out that his hip issue is not career threatening...no indication it's anything long term at this point...and his mechanics and normal velocity will be back in 2026.

TODAY, SWR might be #4. But there's a whole offseason and next ST for Matthews, Abel, and Bradley to take the #4 spot from him. (My hunch is Festa is moving to a high leverage role in the pen with a good medical report later this month).

I can't totally disagree with your take on Ryan. He's going to be 31 going in to 2028, IIRC. There is hope of lower level arms currently in the system that will be ready to replace him by then. But then again, Morris, Prielipp, Morris, Bradley, Abel, and Rojas are also part of that equation on an earlier timeline.

Still, if we could buy him out of his first couple of seasons of FA on a somewhat team friendly deal...IDK, 2 for $34-36M?...you pad your talent level, he's still very tradable at something similar, and he can still sign a new deal going in to his age 33 season. So I can see reasons for an extension on both sides.

[JADBP]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If Ryan asks to be traded,

You hit the nail on the head!!! What player wants to play for the Twins now?  Just the rookies.   Look at Ryan’s performance after the trade deadline (with bizarre Ryan’s rumors).  He caved.  And I don’t think it was intentional but, so sorry to say, he’s been mailing it in.  Like most of the team. 
 

Pohlad/Falvey blew up the team, Rocco lost all control of the players, and they just gave up. There are maybe 2-3 that are trying. This all starts with Pohlad/Falvey and ends with Rocco. I’m can’t blame the players one bit! Imagine how the felt watching this absolute destruction unravel in real time. I have to believe they felt humiliated, dejected, sick to their stomach. 

What I just cannot figure out is how this possibly makes the team more attractive, more valuable, to potential buyers. Any ideas???
 

It’s not the players.  It’s the management. 

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Buster Posey took over in 2022, after both of those trades. Besides, the Twins weren't forced to make either trade.

If you keep going to the Chrysler dealership you keep getting Chryslers.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, JADBP said:

You hit the nail on the head!!! What player wants to play for the Twins now?  Just the rookies.   Look at Ryan’s performance after the trade deadline (with bizarre Ryan’s rumors).  He caved.  And I don’t think it was intentional but, so sorry to say, he’s been mailing it in.  Like most of the team. 
 

Pohlad/Falvey blew up the team, Rocco lost all control of the players, and they just gave up. There are maybe 2-3 that are trying. This all starts with Pohlad/Falvey and ends with Rocco. I’m can’t blame the players one bit! Imagine how the felt watching this absolute destruction unravel in real time. I have to believe they felt humiliated, dejected, sick to their stomach. 

What I just cannot figure out is how this possibly makes the team more attractive, more valuable, to potential buyers. Any ideas???
 

It’s not the players.  It’s the management. 

Go read and re-read Royce's comments yesterday about coming back too soon from his injury, and why he did. It's pretty insightful into the team psyche throughout the ebbs and flows.

[#3Killer]

A bird in the hand …….       

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

No idea what problem trading Joe Ryan for prospects solves right now. He's cheap. He's got more than 1 year of control. 

If the Twins are looking to compete in the next 1-2 years, this move hurts the team while not clearing salary to bring in a free agent to help offset the production loss.

If the Twins are initiating a full ground up rebuild expected to take 2-3 years, it makes sense, but Buxton and Lopez would probably be moved before Ryan as their salaries just aren't necessary.

If the Twins were looking to compete in the next 1-2 years, would they have gutted 40% of the roster for Jack-squat?

[LA Vikes Fan]

The packages mentioned are well, …. Yuck. Now give us a middle of the order bat, yes. He won’t get that so no. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

If you think you are actually a front line starter from being a true contender it makes all the sense in the world. Especially considering Tolle is 22 and it seems like he's just not quite ready yet. 

I can PROMISE you the Red Sox didn't come to some conclusion that one of the top pitching prospects in the game has no future as a major league starter at the age of 22...and then proceeded to call him up to the majors to start important games at the end of their playoffs hopeful season.  

This is defensible position, especially considering the sad state of internally developed pitching in the Twins system. I can see why they focused on bringing in some SP talent in their trade offs. There are about 600 minor league SP prospects with 60+ IP, and in the top 100 by xFIP, there is only one Twins prospect, Cole Peschl. Only one more in the top 200, Prielipp. 

That's really bad results for a front office whose stated goal was to build a pitching pipeline. A flat out failure if we're being honest. 

Peralta will be in his last season under Milwaukee's control. Milwaukee is a well run organization and tends to trade away players at the end of their team control. Brandon Woodruff is actually a mutual option, not a team option like I believed, so I do imagine he's going to decline the option, which would increase the likelihood Milwaukee makes every effort to sign Peralta to an extension, but we'll see.  

They needed to bring up someone after they released Buehler. Tolle was the first choice then they have gone to Early. They probably figured Tolle could do no worse than Buehler. When they were wrong, they brought up Early.  

[TopGunn#22]

Lots of good comments and good logic from a number of different ideas, opinions and viewpoints.  of all of them I've read so far, I think I agree with bunsen82 the most.  I'm not campaigning for the Twins to trade either Ryan or Lopez.  But I think one or them is going to be traded.  

I'm all for moving on from guys like Wallner and Larnach.  We've got young guys coming for our OF and maybe someone comes in a trade.  I agree that Bradley is closer than Abel.  But Abel is kind of like Zebby Matthews.  Both have really good STUFF, but they keep getting shelled in the big leagues.  Command and control is the biggest issue for both.  An off season of study, work and refinement could make a big difference for each.  

In many respects, I think the Twins have plenty of prospects.  If I traded Ryan, I'd want to get a major league player for him.  Like Jarren Duran from the Red Sox.  Boston has a crowded OF.  If they want Ryan, it's going to cost them Duran.  Tolle and Garcia are nowhere near the value of Joe Ryan.  

I also think that this off season there will be a LOT of teams that will be interested in Joe Ryan.  Why not get an old fashioned bidding war going. 

We acquired 2 nice catching prospects at the trade deadline, but each of them is at least 2-3 years from being a Twin.  The Twins need a young, major league catcher to pair with Jeffers (or if Jeffers is traded).  If it takes moving Matt Wallner in a package I'm ready to talk. 

It's hard as a fan to see 40% of your major league roster moved at the deadline and to see a once formidable bullpen gutted.  It will not be an easy fix for 2026.  Some bold moves still need to be made and I wish I had even an ounce of faith Derek Falvey deliver.  I wish I wasn't convinced that Rocco would just sour any talent we brought in.  And I'm fully convicted that Twins fans will probably have a bored indifference to a ballclub owned by the Pohlad family.  

I hope we have another mild winter.  Because I think it's going to be a harsh winter for Twins fans.  

[Doc Lenz]

5 hours ago, Jacksson said:

If you deal with the Giants, the Giants would have to OVERPAY Big Time to make up for the shellacking the Twins got in the 2019 trade for Sam Dyson and the 2021 trade for Shaun Anderson.  Stay away from the Orioles also = remember the Jorge Lopez trade?

Like Buster Posey would care about the past

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Jack Squat?

Player to be named later, in the flurry of deadline trades.  Left-handed hitting corner outfielder, natch.

[PatPfund]

Short answer, no. There is no reason to trade Ryan or Lopez in the offseason; if the Twins want to sell tickets next year (and you do most of that in the offseason), they need to keep their SPs at the core of a cheaper team, fire the manager and bring in someone who knows how to work with young players drill the team better in fundamentals (like defense played as a team not individuals). Right there is your quick road to recovery that doesn't cost a lot, and puts emphasis on where the team is strongest; starting pitching and young/cheap top prospects.

If it doesn't work out, you can always shop Lopez and Ryan at the trade deadline AFTER they've helped you sell tickets, and WHEN you can get the most for them. The Red Sox didn't just offer a lot for Ryan (maybe) at the deadline because he was hot, it was overpay because that's what teams do at the trade deadline, overpay for a dream to save their season. That won't happen over the winter when there is plenty of time to consider downsides.

[jorgenswest]

None of the three is a top flight prospect. Tolle has the future value (50) of a number four starter. Arias has the same future value from the position player side. Garcia is the next prospect tier down (45+) and high risk of getting to his future value.

If true they were wise to keep Ryan. I hope they remain wise this off season. 

[JADBP]

7 hours ago, Patzky said:

Go read and re-read Royce's comments yesterday about coming back too soon from his injury, and why he did. It's pretty insightful into the team psyche throughout the ebbs and flows.

I did—not sure I get the insight. He believes he came back too soon. Was it HE that rushed back to help the team or was it management that said “You’re up, Royce!  Go get em!”  Who was desperate here?  
 

That said, it is obvious as heck that Ryan wants out.  He just totally checked out after the fiasco at the trading deadline. Remember, he was told he was traded then Oops, sorry, never mind.  And Varland was traded.  Makes no sense.  
 

Ryan is a very good SP and he certainly deserves better than the BS that the Twins management and ownership are spitting out.  So do us fans!  

[JADBP]

Here are the Joe Ryan splits first half vs second half (the AS break-as close as I can get to the trade deadline). 
 

Ryan’s Win/loss went down by 250 pts. ERA almost doubles. Hits per inning pitched went up by 30% and HRs per IP doubled.  BA, OBP SLG OPS all substantially increased. There is almost no pitching metric that didn’t decline after the deadline. 
 

it’s probably even worse than this simple analysis because he Ryan had some fantastic starts in July before the deadline but in the 2nd half (like Colorado on 7/20—11Ks!).

[William K Johnson]

12 hours ago, Jacksson said:

If you deal with the Giants, the Giants would have to OVERPAY Big Time to make up for the shellacking the Twins got in the 2019 trade for Sam Dyson and the 2021 trade for Shaun Anderson.  Stay away from the Orioles also = remember the Jorge Lopez trade?

Or the JJ Hardy trade

[jmlease1]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the Twins current payroll next year is something like 50M? Assuming no prideful free agents would even consider this dumpster fire, I'd guess the Twins would have to consider extensions for both Ryan and Jeffers to even sniff the 100M mark.

They're at like $90M in payroll commitments if they bring everyone back and pay projected raises in arbitration. I believe this also includes the $10M we're paying on Correa's contract (which you know Twins ownership will include in any payroll limits). Dump Lopez and Ryan and replace with minimum salary players and we're still looking at over $60M, which is basically the floor unless Buxton waives his no-trade.

(I am not advocating for Buck to waive his no-trade, and I hope he finishes his career as a Twin, even if the team is a mess right now with horrible ownership)

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I absolutely hate to see the Twins trade away Ryan. I would absolutely not revisit anything resembling that trade offer with BOS. The top priority during the trade deadline in trading away our valuable players should have been gaining impact young MLB-ready players to plug into our roster at our greatest needs of at catcher & SP. That didn't happen, which IMO was a great failure.

If Ryan asks to be traded, (I would not blame him & I would not trust Falvey to pull off a desirable trade). So I'm pulled in both directions. Even if he wants to be traded, I would not trade him if Falvey is still in charge, but if we have someone different who knows what he's doing. Then yeah, I would

 

This is where I am at as well.  Competitively, the Twins should not trade him.  If Ryan doesn't want to be here anymore, then they should make their best deal.  

[In My La Z boy]

33 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

They're at like $90M in payroll commitments if they bring everyone back and pay projected raises in arbitration. I believe this also includes the $10M we're paying on Correa's contract (which you know Twins ownership will include in any payroll limits). Dump Lopez and Ryan and replace with minimum salary players and we're still looking at over $60M, which is basically the floor unless Buxton waives his no-trade.

(I am not advocating for Buck to waive his no-trade, and I hope he finishes his career as a Twin, even if the team is a mess right now with horrible ownership)

Lopez Ryan Ober Larnach Jeffers
Trade those 5 and we establish a new low payroll beating out the Sacramento A's. Now do the Braves come calling for Byron this winter? That's the only place he'd happily go. Pohlad still wants to sell, and the 2027 potential lock-out looms. Does Falvey go along with this? No one else must want him? I'd quit if I were him.

[David Maro]

Ryan doesn't want to waste another year on a last place team. He would have been gone in July except for the fact that his fiance being with child. Everyday that goes by this organization is becoming a bigger joke. He will be looking to get back to a team in California.

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Lopez Ryan Ober Larnach Jeffers
Trade those 5 and we establish a new low payroll beating out the Sacramento A's. Now do the Braves come calling for Byron this winter? That's the only place he'd happily go. Pohlad still wants to sell, and the 2027 potential lock-out looms. Does Falvey go along with this? No one else must want him? I'd quit if I were him.

That would certainly guarantee we're the worst team in the league

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

That would certainly guarantee we're the worst team in the league

I don’t see much of a difference being the worst team in the league and the 4th worst team in the league like we currently are. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t see much of a difference being the worst team in the league and the 4th worst team in the league like we currently are. 

I'd say post-deadline there's a strong case to be made the Twins ARE MLB's worst team.

[Vanimal46]

I would put the percent chance at 99% that Joe Ryan demands a trade out of here this winter. It's abundantly clear he is unhappy and doesn't want to waste his prime years on a bottom feeding team like the Twins. There will be plenty of interested teams besides Boston

[jmlease1]

22 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t see much of a difference being the worst team in the league and the 4th worst team in the league like we currently are. 

I think there is, because if you strip out all of the veterans who make any money at all and implode the rotation the same way they imploded the bullpen, there's zero chance of the bounce back season, the overachieving squad like 2017, etc. And from a roster/player development side, just going with a bunch of rookies puts you with no floor at all.

There's still a difference between being bad (which we are) and hopeless (colorado). We're rebuilding and should be looking at it that way, but when you also consider how MLB has disincentivized utterly sucking for 3-4 seasons in a row, what's the benefit to guaranteeing you'll stink? 

It's so hard to find starting pitching that's actually good and consistently good. I guess I look at dealing Ryan (and potentially Lopez) and seeing a future where the team could easily be awful for the next 2-3 seasons even if Walker Jenkins really is Captain America. Or Culpepper is the team-grown locked in SS we've dreamt about.

[The Great Hambino]

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd say post-deadline there's a strong case to be made the Twins ARE MLB's worst team.

54 win pace (16-32) since then.  If the Rockies didn't exist (they're one game worse, which means their winning percentage went up during that stretch as they partake in their own tragic comedy) there wouldn't even be a debate over who the worst team has been.

Even worse in a way, the Twins were in playoff position as recently as June 14.  Since then, they're on a 58 win pace (31-55), which also happens to be only one game better than the Rockies.  And that includes a month and a half where they were still trying to win.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins may have to move Ryan in the off-season. They may not but it sure looks like they may have to. 

But... if they do... they need to revisit trade packages with everyone. 

Focusing on the Red Sox deadline discussion whatever it actually was... if it was... is way too narrow a focus. 

If you are going to narrow the focus.

1B... Need a young 1B stud prospect in return. The hole at 1B is too gaping at the moment.  

[AKTwinsFan]

I say we get a top 3 pick in next year's draft so we don't need more "prospects" we need more MLB ready players. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I think one of Lopez/Ryan will be traded. I prefer to keep Pablo as a mentor to all the young guys. I have one question. I keep seeing people referring to cutting payroll before a lockout in 2027. What difference does it make? If there is a lockout no one is getting paid anyway so it doesn't hurt the owners bottom line.