Ober and Out: Time to Shut Down Bailey Ober for 2025

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are entering the final month of the season with their rotation in transition. Pablo López has returned from the injured list, while younger starters like Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and Simeon Woods Richardson deserve meaningful innings. That leaves Bailey Ober in an unfortunate but necessary position: it’s time for the Twins to shut him down for the rest of 2025.

Recurring health issues have marred Ober’s season. He spent multiple stints on the injured list with a lingering hip injury that never seemed to resolve fully. Each return was met with cautious optimism, but his performance on the mound made it clear he wasn’t operating at 100 percent. He is a very tall pitcher on the mound and he needs his entire body working together to perform at his best. As the calendar turns to September, the benefits of pushing him any further pale in comparison to the risk of aggravating an already nagging problem.

Velocity Concerns
The numbers tell the story as much as the eye test. In 2024, Ober’s four-seam fastball averaged 91.7 mph. This season, it’s dipped to 90.4 mph, and in one of his most recent outings, he struggled to keep it even above 90. That decline has coincided with a drop in his strikeout ability. After carrying a career K% near 24 percent, Ober is down to just 18.5 percent in 2025. Last year, Ober struck out 7+ batters in 15 of his 31 starts, and this year, he has struck out seven in a start twice, and never more.

Interestingly, the velocity drop hasn’t translated into a jump in damage against him. Hitters have posted a lower slugging percentage and lower exit velocity compared to 2024. However, the overall picture remains bleak. His .357 wOBA ranks in MLB’s bottom nine percent, while his max exit velocity allowed (116.6 mph) is among the league’s worst four percent. His baseball acumen has enabled him to achieve a modest level of success, but it’s not sustainable. 

Even in a down year, Ober continues to showcase what makes him unique. His chase rate (93rd percentile), walk rate (94th percentile), and extension (97th percentile) remain elite. He can still limit free passes and use his tall frame to create a deceptive angle on hitters. Unfortunately, those strengths haven’t been enough to counterbalance his diminished fastball or his declining whiff rates.

The Bigger Picture
The Twins don’t need to force the issue. López’s return gives the rotation an anchor, and Minnesota has every reason to hand opportunities to Bradley, Matthews, and Woods Richardson as the season winds down. With the team looking to evaluate its young arms ahead of 2026, Ober pushing through a compromised season doesn’t help anyone.

Long term, Ober still profiles as a stabilizing mid-rotation arm if he can return to health and recover some velocity. But asking him to grind through September with a nagging hip injury risks making a short-term problem much worse.

The biggest question moving forward is what comes next for Ober. The Twins will likely spend the winter weighing two possible paths: shutting him down completely to rest and rehab with hopes of a bounce-back in 2026, or exploring whether a clean-up procedure is necessary to get him back to full strength. Either way, his offseason will be just as crucial as his regular season, as the team tries to determine whether he can remain a rotation fixture or if his long-term role may need to be re-evaluated.

Ober has given the Twins plenty of quality innings in recent years, and there’s no shame in calling this season what it is: a lost year. With López back and prospects ready for a chance, the Twins must shut down Ober now and prioritize his long-term health over innings in a lost season.

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Should the Twins shut down Ober? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[jorgenswest]

I guess it makes me wonder if they should shut down any pitcher of value. Why risk an injury to Joe or Pablo? Pablo is just back and Joe has had some rough outing recently. Maybe something is going on with the arm. Maybe shut  down some of the young arms too. No reason to risk Tommy John and losing next year.

I guess the only thing holding them back is a player needs to be injured to be put in IL. Should they shut down Ober? Sure. If there is an injury.

[awmonahan]

Good call. Unless they are pushing to display health players for the off-season trade market, a shut down makes perfect sense. 

[Nshore]

Regarding the Twins starters in general, there are some interesting recent comments from Ryan about the Twins failure/refusal to sign Sonny Gray.  It's one of the biggest of the many mistakes they've made - which makes it a really huge, colossal mistake.  Gray brought a much needed edge to the starting staff.  He seemed to expect more not only from his teammates but also from his manager.  Even if his production was sure to drop off, IMO what he brought to the locker room more than made up for it.  But the Pohlads won't spend the money - or won't spend it on the right personnel.

Ryan said he just wants to win, which makes it almost a certainty that he'll be gone - because winning is not going to happen here.   So sure, put Ober on the shelf.  Why not?

 

[Parfigliano]

Isn't Mr Ober pitching today

[Patzky]

10 minutes ago, awmonahan said:

Good call. Unless they are pushing to display health players for the off-season trade market, a shut down makes perfect sense. 

Bailey would be a sell-low, so there's no negative to shutting him down after today. What does he want? Could he cover some relief innings, as competent relief is in short supply?

[tony&rodney]

Ober will continue to take his turn in the rotation unless there is an injury that requires Bailey to go on the IL. Ober is still pitching for a 2026 contract to be settled or go to arbitration (the Twins settle). The Twins will almost certainly float Ober to determine what interest other teams have in him. Ober would be a nice #4-5 starting pitcher for a number of teams. He is a big guy and often tall pitchers manage lengthy careers. So, there are a pile of unknowns with Ober but I expect he finishes out the year pitching every week. That only leaves 3 remaining starts, maybe 4 for Ober. Bailey will want to conquer his own personal nemesis today. The Royals have had his number at times.

[mikelink45]

I am beyond trying to figure out what is logical for this team.  Outman and Gaspar on the team makes no sense.  Half the BP makes no sense.  Continuing to hope Julien will hit is a waste of time. 

Forget the crap about service time.  A few games left - let some of the potential prospects get their feet wet in MLB.

Yes shut down Ober - what are we waiting for.  Let him start over in 2026.  

 

[old nurse]

6 months ago they were touting. Ober as a Cy Young candidate on these pages. 

[DJL44]

Keep running him out there. Every time his ERA increases, his arbitration award decreases.

[Linus]

If he is not 100% healthy I would shut him down so he can heal up and have a regular off season of training. 

[JBK]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am beyond trying to figure out what is logical for this team.  Outman and Gaspar on the team makes no sense.  Half the BP makes no sense.  Continuing to hope Julien will hit is a waste of time. 

Forget the crap about service time.  A few games left - let some of the potential prospects get their feet wet in MLB.

Yes shut down Ober - what are we waiting for.  Let him start over in 2026.  

 

The just called up AAA catcher was fine Friday night.  So what do they do?  Sit him and start Gaspar.  Terrible management.  Just terrible.  Fire Rocco!

[djvang]

They should shut Ryan down too. He seems to have lost interest.  It's easy to understand with a minor league lineup behind him.

[Doctor Gast]

They should have put him on the IL to begin the season & let him heal then, instead of keeping throwing him out there. They kept throwing Polanco on the field when he injured his knee; they screwed up knee & career. So, if his hip is still sore. Yeah, pull him. Why jeopardize his career for nothing? 

[Doc Lenz]

Ober wouldn’t be pitching if he was hurt! If shutting down him and Ryan makes sense to many of you perhaps we should shut the whole team down. They are paid millions of dollars to play. Only thing that should be done is firing the Manager and if things don’t improve next year fire the GM.

[strumdatjag]

Ober looks better today.    Has anyone considered moving him to the pen.  Maybe he could get his velocity up and stay a little healthier.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Doc Lenz said:

if things don’t improve next year fire the GM.

I'm sorry to say that I cannot wait any longer for the incompetent Falvey to learn.

[Patzky]

Challenge accepted. 😊

[ashbury]

This Article Aged Well.™

[jorgenswest]

Glad Ober pitched today.

[gman]

Twins win Ober wins. Chances of a 100 loss year are eliminated.

[Western SD Fan]

To be fair, I would have said this regardless of Ober's start today.  For the group of us that are tired of watching 1-3 bullpen games per week, I don't care how good or bad Ober will be the rest of the season, provided he is healthy.  I would rather see Ober out there trying to get 4-6 innings an outing than watch a bullpen game that eventually blows up.  The current state of the bullpen has a hard enough time trying to do their job much less trying to cover an entire game.  The Twins sent down Abel because they have no confidence in him even getting through 4 innings.  We finally have five starters going (Lopez, Ryan, SWR, Ober, and Bradley).  Maybe we should give them the rest of the season to try and gel as a unit, so we have some hope for the offseason.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

This Article Aged Well.™

Many articles and comments do not age well. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Many articles and comments do not age well. 

Well, that's why I put the funny little Trademark symbol on it, you know?

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

Ober wouldn’t be pitching if he was hurt! If shutting down him and Ryan makes sense to many of you perhaps we should shut the whole team down. They are paid millions of dollars to play. Only thing that should be done is firing the Manager and if things don’t improve next year fire the GM.

CORRECT! If Ober was injured, he wouldn’t be in the 26-man in September. Most guys hurt some nearly every day after May……every year. It’s professional sports.

I have hindsight here and know he pitched well against a hungry line-up that’s traditionally given him problems. I think he’s probably nicked up a bit but he’s pitching for personal  $$ and the Team would like to see more than one consecutive good start from him. He’ll keep pitching another turn or three in September.

[Jasper]

Get what you can for Ober this winter. Throwing 89mph fastballs will get you no where. he will be out of mlb in 2 years unless he is used in relief only.

[USAFChief]

22 hours ago, old nurse said:

Many articles and comments do not age well. 

Ditto commenters

[TopGunn#22]

If Oner is healthy (and his game against the Royals seemed to show he was) then he needs to keep pitching thru the end of the season.  With the exception of Buxton and Keaschall no one is off the table when it comes to trades.  Let Ober rebuild his value to the point where he brings something good back in a trade, or he re-establishes his hold on the #3 spot in the rotation.  Yes, he may pitch poorly and tank his value, but the Twins need to determine what he will be in 2026.