Twins Video
The Minnesota Twins are entering the final month of the season with their rotation in transition. Pablo López has returned from the injured list, while younger starters like Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and Simeon Woods Richardson deserve meaningful innings. That leaves Bailey Ober in an unfortunate but necessary position: it’s time for the Twins to shut him down for the rest of 2025.
Recurring health issues have marred Ober’s season. He spent multiple stints on the injured list with a lingering hip injury that never seemed to resolve fully. Each return was met with cautious optimism, but his performance on the mound made it clear he wasn’t operating at 100 percent. He is a very tall pitcher on the mound and he needs his entire body working together to perform at his best. As the calendar turns to September, the benefits of pushing him any further pale in comparison to the risk of aggravating an already nagging problem.
Velocity Concerns
The numbers tell the story as much as the eye test. In 2024, Ober’s four-seam fastball averaged 91.7 mph. This season, it’s dipped to 90.4 mph, and in one of his most recent outings, he struggled to keep it even above 90. That decline has coincided with a drop in his strikeout ability. After carrying a career K% near 24 percent, Ober is down to just 18.5 percent in 2025. Last year, Ober struck out 7+ batters in 15 of his 31 starts, and this year, he has struck out seven in a start twice, and never more.
Interestingly, the velocity drop hasn’t translated into a jump in damage against him. Hitters have posted a lower slugging percentage and lower exit velocity compared to 2024. However, the overall picture remains bleak. His .357 wOBA ranks in MLB’s bottom nine percent, while his max exit velocity allowed (116.6 mph) is among the league’s worst four percent. His baseball acumen has enabled him to achieve a modest level of success, but it’s not sustainable.
Even in a down year, Ober continues to showcase what makes him unique. His chase rate (93rd percentile), walk rate (94th percentile), and extension (97th percentile) remain elite. He can still limit free passes and use his tall frame to create a deceptive angle on hitters. Unfortunately, those strengths haven’t been enough to counterbalance his diminished fastball or his declining whiff rates.
The Bigger Picture
The Twins don’t need to force the issue. López’s return gives the rotation an anchor, and Minnesota has every reason to hand opportunities to Bradley, Matthews, and Woods Richardson as the season winds down. With the team looking to evaluate its young arms ahead of 2026, Ober pushing through a compromised season doesn’t help anyone.
Long term, Ober still profiles as a stabilizing mid-rotation arm if he can return to health and recover some velocity. But asking him to grind through September with a nagging hip injury risks making a short-term problem much worse.
The biggest question moving forward is what comes next for Ober. The Twins will likely spend the winter weighing two possible paths: shutting him down completely to rest and rehab with hopes of a bounce-back in 2026, or exploring whether a clean-up procedure is necessary to get him back to full strength. Either way, his offseason will be just as crucial as his regular season, as the team tries to determine whether he can remain a rotation fixture or if his long-term role may need to be re-evaluated.
Ober has given the Twins plenty of quality innings in recent years, and there’s no shame in calling this season what it is: a lost year. With López back and prospects ready for a chance, the Twins must shut down Ober now and prioritize his long-term health over innings in a lost season.
Should the Twins shut down Ober? Leave a comment and start the discussion.







Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now