BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[chopper0080]

Headline tomorrow.

 

In Duran trade, Twins Choose Savings Over Substance.

[bunsen82]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

None of those guys will be legit starters in Minnesota for at least three years ... So they still don't have any catchers, three years after overpaying for Vazquez, and won't for at least two or three more ...

Abel is up now, Priellip could be up next year.

[Wedman13]

15 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Nathan. Aggy.

Reardon.  and they all did it much more that 2.5 yrs with declining velocity

[hitterscount]

Just a terrible trade. The Phillies needed a RP, their BP is awful. This is what Falvey gets in return, a 18 year old in low A that strikes out at an alarming rate, and a projected mid to backend SP. You have to do better. You have to get prospects that can help this anemic offense next year. We just traded one of the best relievers in the game, WITH team control for 2 1/3 seasons, WTF are we doing!

This team isn't/shouldn't be this bad. We have the pieces on the pitching staff to contend for the AL Central. What we need is some players  with speed that can play defense, oh   and a new manager. 

This trade does nothing to improve the team, so a money dump Im guessing, it's gross incompetence like this that ended my season early.

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Fair question.  Next year, not terrible at all I think 5-6m.  I hate to say, I don't think it matters, because we'll be bad again in 2026.  Yes ,'team control' in 2027 but thats when we have to extend an again closer for big $, or commit to trading.

hes my favorite twin, but i think the trade is solid 

Probably a little more, but even so, that doesn't make him a rental, or too expensive. There wasn't some massive rush to get this deal done today. They had another 24 hours before the deadline wrapped, and they have an entire offseason ahead of them. 

If you just love this particualr deal, ok. It sounds like they could've held out for an actual overpay and gotten equivalent value this offseason if they were intent of moving Duran. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Abel is up now, Priellip could be up next year.

Weren't we discussing the catchers? That's what I was talking about.

[Wedman13]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

Trade Rumors seems to feel the deal is solid for the Twins.  Still Tait is no sure thing to stay behind the plate and Abel needs development for his stuff to translate.  Let's hope the Twins Dev teams are up to the task.

Again, bringing reality into the deal will take you down.  Brutal arm chairs here today.  Keeps it humorous.

[Dman]

Just now, Wedman13 said:

Again, bringing reality into the deal will take you down.  Brutal arm chairs here today.  Keeps it humorous.

The Athletic grades it pretty even, but the Twins take on all the risk in this deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is what I don't like:

1. It doesn't help in the Lopez Ryan window (since they can't hit at all). (it actively hurts the window)

2. The Twins are taking all the risk. The top get is in A ball (just promoted to high A....). Who was dropped from Fangraphs top 100 this week (after being promoted). And, all that risk is 3 years out....the present value on this deal is awful.

People really seem to be ignoring the risk factor here.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Again, bringing reality into the deal will take you down.  Brutal arm chairs here today.  Keeps it humorous.

Seems like you found the highest arm chair to laugh at the peasants here. Congrats. 

[PseudoSABR]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

To me this shows just how badly they got screwed.  At the deadline the seller should have the leverage and especially since he had 2 and half year left.  The Twins couldn't even get throw in's in this deal? This whole deal makes them look weak IMO.

If Abel really is good (mid rotation) a lot of us will have to eat our words, but he needs to work out because the odds of a high school\young catcher with good numbers at A ball working out is like 10% or something.  It is super high risk. Again maybe Twins scouts see him translating well to higher levels, but I feel like we have been on that hope train before and these young guys at these lower levels never quite make it.

When you have the prize of the deadline it seems odd for them to take on this level of risk to me.  I just can't help, but question this trade.

Saying all that I haven't watched Abel pitch nor Tait play.  Hopefully they impress right away otherwise it feels like the Twins got worse today and not better.  They don't need more 5th starter type arms or catchers who just aren't quite good enough.

It's just a snapshot.  I don't put much stock in the tool.  I think they are severely underrating Abel, given his results at AAA this season.  23 (24 soon) former top 15 pick. That said, they give a lot a value to a 18 year old catcher in High A.  

What reliever in recent memory has netted more? 

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Again, bringing reality into the deal will take you down.  Brutal arm chairs here today.  Keeps it humorous.

Could they have gotten a better haul if they offered to send Citizens Bank Park the Duran Intro Download program.. 🔥 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Abel is up now, Priellip could be up next year.

Twins assigning Abel to AAA, not the majors. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, PseudoSABR said:

 

What reliever in recent memory has netted more? 

Matt Capps

 

[Greglw3]

19 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

 

The most misleading take a human could come up with!!! 4.04 peak FIP indeed.

2015 AAA 74 IP 54 H 2.31 ERA 32 BB 82 K Dominating. You cannot get a limitation to 54 hits in 74 innings without having dominating stuff. The 82 K in 74 IP says the same thing.

Tait’s bat projects well, he’s forced a move to high A at age 18 and hitting in the .290s there.

2025 AAA 74 IP.....

[Wedman13]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Here is what I don't like:

1. It doesn't help in the Lopez Ryan window (since they can't hit at all).

2. The Twins are taking all the risk. The top get is in A ball (just promoted to high A....). Who was dropped from Fangraphs top 100 this week (after being promoted). And, all that risk is 3 years out....the present value on this deal is awful.

People really seem to be ignoring the risk factor here.

Really fair point, but risk on the Duran side too.  Has to be a reason he's now 99/100 vs 103/104.  Maybe it's the guns! :)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I 100 percent believe money is a huge part of the deal. 

I agree with this, as Duran is going to become very expensive over the next few years. That doesn't mean the reasoning is bad.

Personally, I am probably more down an Duran than most. It feels like before this year, he underperformed to his stuff. More Eddie Guardado saves than Joe Nathan saves. He has been great this year. With his velo trending downwards, sell high.

Regarding the trade, I don't know. People are expecting the world for 40 IP annually. They got a possible rotation piece and a decent C prospect. Most prospect-for-player trades don't work out... so I expect to see an abundance of positive comments on the TD board.

[LewFordLives]

No matter how bad the trade the Derek Falvey amen corner will always rush to his defense.

[Danchat]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins assigning Abel to AAA, not the majors. 

That's curious.... it doesn't seem like he has anything left to prove at AAA.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree with this, as Duran is going to become very expensive over the next few years. That doesn't mean the reasoning is bad.

Personally, I am probably more down an Duran than most. It feels like before this year, he underperformed to his stuff. More Eddie Guardado saves than Joe Nathan saves. He has been great this year. With his velo trending downwards, sell high.

Regarding the trade, I don't know. People are expecting the world for 40 IP annually. They got a possible rotation piece and a decent C prospect. Most prospect-for-player trades don't work out... so I expect to see an abundance of positive comments on the TD board.

40 IP annually??

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

It's just a snapshot.  I don't put much stock in the tool.  I think they are severely underrating Abel, given his results at AAA this season.  23 (24 soon) former top 15 pick. That said, they give a lot a value to a 18 year old catcher in High A.  

What reliever in recent memory has netted more? 

I am thinking:

In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees in a trade to bolster their bullpen for a World Series push. The Yankees received a package of players including top prospect Gleyber Torres, and versatile player Adam Warren. This trade is notable as it involved a star closer and a key prospect, and helped the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century

I think he was the Cubs number 1 prospect and top ten in the top 100 at the time.

[Doctor Gast]

36 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Super disappointed! Someone should have told Falvey that it's the seller who's supposed to get the deal not the buyer. There's no hope for this i***t. What a joke! How are we suppose to get anywhere with this joker at the helm? Move over CO we are going to race you for being the worse team. By the time they get him out of here he'll put us into Twinkies II realm.

[Aggies7]

Underwhelming, but the Phillies had to pay for the program that makes the stadium lights go all screwy when Duran comes into the game so it’s a wash 

[ziggy]

we don't know what goes on in the front office.

Perhaps the Philly's were the only team interested in Duran at the 2 top 100 prospect price.

Perhaps Falvey has been told he will have to slash another 25 million from next years budget.

I do think $$$ is a factor here. Duran, Jax, and Ryan are due for significant arbitration raises and paying closer salaries for Jax and Duran is not Faleys style. 

I'm sad. Duran was the most exciting player on the team. I'm glad my grandsons got to experience Durans entrance and 9th inning dominance.   

[LewFordLives]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am thinking:

In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees in a trade to bolster their bullpen for a World Series push. The Yankees received a package of players including top prospect Gleyber Torres, and versatile player Adam Warren. This trade is notable as it involved a star closer and a key prospect, and helped the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century

I think he was the Cubs number 1 prospect and top ten in the top 100 at the time.

It's even worse.... Chapman was only a RENTAL who then resigned with the Yankees in the off-season.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am thinking:

In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees in a trade to bolster their bullpen for a World Series push. The Yankees received a package of players including top prospect Gleyber Torres, and versatile player Adam Warren. This trade is notable as it involved a star closer and a key prospect, and helped the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century

I think he was the Cubs number 1 prospect and top ten in the top 100 at the time.

These over pays ain't happening any more. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Super disappointed! Someone should have told Falvey that it's the seller who's supposed to get the deal not the buyer. There's no hope for this i***t. What a joke! How are we suppose to get anywhere with this joker at the helm? Move over CO we are going to race you for being the worse team. By the time they get him out of here he'll put us into Twinkies II realm.

5th place next season is not an unreasonable expectation. The sad part is a regime that has failed at player development is presently in charge of what fully appears to be a rebuild.

[purplesoldier4u]

2 hours ago, DasBat said:

Painter would be a great get

Yeah, but we got a basket of day old bagels.

[LewFordLives]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Matt Capps

 

That hurt 

 

[PseudoSABR]

8 minutes ago, Danchat said:

That's curious.... it doesn't seem like he has anything left to prove at AAA.

They may have specific plan for him, which would be encouraging.