Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes: Twins Should Be Decisive, Aggressive Sellers at Trade Deadline

[ashbury]

We aren't the Rays or Athletics.  Ryan and Duran become relatively expensive during their final final years of control?  That's cause for celebration - it means they are successful.  You want successful players.  It's a privilege to pay them; the budget can support keeping them.

Suppose you trade Ryan.  What do you do with the cost savings?  Use it to replace him?  That's merely spinning your wheels.

I posted my deadline blueprint.  It's similar to the sell strategy the article lays out.  I agree with trying to compete in 2026 unless evidence later on this year suggests not.  But I don't shop my good players under team control, at this deadline. 

[Guest]

Ah yes, the SELLERS article, right on time.  Always prompts me to review the rosters of the other 29 MLB teams for ex-Twins dumped prematurely.  Seems difficult sometimes to attract/upgrade coaching and patience for immediate-gratification selling.  This year's list starts with Brent Rooker, one of the Twins' all-time leading premature dumps.  Buy high, sell low, TD let's go!!

[shimrod]

4 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

ex-Twins dumped prematurely.....This year's list starts with Brent Rooker,

You assume the Rooker playing for the A's would be the Rooker playing for the Twins if we'd only held on. I expect Rooker continuing to "develop" with the Twins would more likely be out of the league by now.

Which gets to the heart of the Twins problems. It's not lack of talent. It's continually squandering talent in an attempt to outsmart the game itself.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Brent Rooker, one of the Twins' all-time leading premature dumps.

Nettles? Tiant? Etc.?

The Athletics did not get Rooker from the Twins. Kansas City didn't get Rooker from the Twins. They DFA'ed him after a brief trial run. San Diego did get Rooker from the Twins in a trade. Falvey coveted Chris Paddack.  The Twins had Nelson Cruz first and then Luis Arraez firmly in place as their DH. The Twins did make a decision on the 26 year old DH (Rooker) after his .201 BA and .688 OPS in 2021 because the .900+ OPS of Cruz in 2021 was replaced by an Arraez batting title and OPS of .795. There was no room at the inn, so to speak, for Rooker. 

Don't look back. It's a saying.

[CharlieDee]

You think Falvey needs to "change his mode of operation."    I got news for you,he isn't going to change anything. He is what he is.

[Mahoning]

They're in a tough spot. They need stars (you can't win without stars), and stars are hard to come by. Evidently the internal bet was that Lewis and Wallner would become stars. Instead, the both regressed catastrophically. What do they have to trade to get stars? No one, except Joe Ryan and possibly Duran. They have no one to replace Ryan. So they are pretty much stuck and should probably do nothing. Wait till next year.

Because they have no minor league catchers worth a darn, they should try to re-sign Vazquez at a much lower salary (they won't have much competition.) Jeffers and Vazquez at C is perfectly acceptable.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is where you lost me. We’re 9 years into his tenure and we are on pace to miss the playoffs in 4 out the last 5 seasons. He’s got to go. 

Yup, if the plan is to sell off current assets for future assets because this team isn’t good, then the FO misjudged badly. This team has been in the making for 6 years. This team didn’t get tore down after crapping the bed in epic fashion last year. And this team continued where it left off last year.

i don’t necessarily agree with Matt’s prescription, but if he believes Falvey needs to sell aggressively, then the only answer is to fire an incompetent front office. They didn’t just miss one off season in a couple minor acquisitions if the prescription to sell aggressively, they missed a bunch of decisions over several offseasons and misread the ownership too.

edit to add: @Matthew Trueblood excellently written piece. The dithering is absolutely maddening with this team.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is where you lost me. We’re 9 years into his tenure and we are on pace to miss the playoffs in 4 out the last 5 seasons. He’s got to go. 

And, as noted in the OP, the team is under .500 since 2021.

This isn't bad luck. 2019 was neat but it's a long time ago.

 

 

[Rosterman]

Two Major Decisions:

No need to have Duran as a closer if he only gets 20-or-so saves a season. He's a luxury if not competitive.

If you make Ryan an offer of $125m for five years with a sixth year option, does he take it, or wait you out. Are you willing to go $150m on the guy, or sell high. I think, baring injury, Ryan will relish going free agent and maybe signing with a team that will win games for him.

[Carneal&Gordon]

 I am Team “Sell at the Deadline, Sell the Team, Keep Falvey”

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Suppose you trade Ryan.  What do you do with the cost savings?  Use it to replace him?  That's merely spinning your wheels.

A 1 to 1 replacement is nearly the best possible outcome, and the odds of that are immensely small.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

The problem with doing the right thing and becoming sellers is that the incompetent front office who has bungled so many things will be the ones to do it.  Have any confidence?  If you do, you have not been paying attention.

The problem is, the Minnesota Twins will become the Minnesota White Sox; that would just make the stadium over flow with fans.

[FlyingFinn]

Mickey Gasper's status changed to "taxi squad" for the Saints today. Does that mean a trade is already happening for the Twins??

Edit: False alarm - Ryan Jeffers wife is having a baby soon.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

The problem with doing the right thing and becoming sellers is that the incompetent front office who has bungled so many things will be the ones to do it.  Have any confidence?  If you do, you have not been paying attention.

 

 

You can never let fear deter you from doing what you know is right. That's called cowardice. 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And the rest of my post was about not having to trade people right now. They can get a deal for him in the offseason when I think it makes a billion times more sense to trade any of their guys who are controlled for 2 more years. Instead of trading them now when they won't get equal value just because people are upset this season isn't going well.

I think this is true, with the exception of relievers. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems teams wildly overpay for relievers at the deadline as opposed to the offseason. 

Empty the bullpen now. Don't wait for the offseason. But I agree, don't truly entertain a trade for Ryan. The value won't be there. 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think this is true, with the exception of relievers. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems teams wildly overpay for relievers at the deadline as opposed to the offseason. 

Empty the bullpen now. Don't wait for the offseason. But I agree, don't truly entertain a trade for Ryan. The value won't be there. 

I'm not against Duran and/or Jax trades if somebody blows you away, but you still have 2 more deadlines with them. I fully understand there's extra risk with a reliever that their value tanks, but those two have enough track record that I'd take my chances if the return isn't pretty astronomical. But I do agree the deadline at least feels like the better time to deal them. 

[jorgenswest]

Does trading for prospects pay off? I looked back at last year’s deadline and checked on ESPN’s top tier of 5 prospects traded at the 2024 deadline. I think the progress of those five should be a cautionary tale for the Twins considering trading players beyond those with expiring contracts. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

If you make Ryan an offer of $125m for five years with a sixth year option, does he take it, or wait you out.

His next two seasons are probably $21M in arbitration so that would be three additional seasons at $34M each for Joe Ryan ages 32-34. I think he would take that but doubt the Twins would offer it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Two Major Decisions:

No need to have Duran as a closer if he only gets 20-or-so saves a season. He's a luxury if not competitive.

If you make Ryan an offer of $125m for five years with a sixth year option, does he take it, or wait you out. Are you willing to go $150m on the guy, or sell high. I think, baring injury, Ryan will relish going free agent and maybe signing with a team that will win games for him.

Saves don’t interest me.  He’s a really great reliever and unless I’m blown away by an offer, I keep him at least one more year.

You don’t need to make Ryan an offer of $125M for five years.  You still have him for two more.  Doesn’t mean it’s a terrible idea, but I don’t think there are any long term deals/extensions before a team sale happens.  

[jimbo92107]

To be brutally honest, the Twins need a fire sale. The only player I would not trade is Ryan Jeffers, because a solid star catcher is soooo hard to find. Byron Buxton deserves better than to be stuck in Minnesota for his whole career. Like Garnett and the Wolves, he has paid his dues. Let him go somewhere with a chance at a ring. The rest of the squad is just draft picks and prospects waiting to be harvested. 

I'm not going to blame Falvey and Levine for this mess. They succeeded in Cleveland, so they tried to do it again here. Fact is, Cleveland was a run of luck that could not be replicated. Also, this team is owned by stingy billionaires, not sports fans. Bad situation. 

The Pohlads probably don't have the cajones to do a fire sale while they're trying to sell the team, but the new owners would be smart to do it. Clear the decks and start over. Sell the old car for parts, then buy a new one. This team does not just need a little tweaking around the edges. It needs a full overhaul.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does trading for prospects pay off? I looked back at last year’s deadline and checked on ESPN’s top tier of 5 prospects traded at the 2024 deadline. I think the progress of those five should be a cautionary tale for the Twins considering trading players beyond those with expiring contracts. 

I'd say looking at 5 prospects from 1 year is a pretty small sample size. The Nats are pretty happy with Abrams, Gore, and Wood who they got in a singular trade. The Astros are sure glad they traded Josh Fields. They got some fella named Yordan for him. The Royals are pretty happy with Cole Ragans for a couple months of Aroldis Chapman in a lost season. Cleveland traded 2 years of a breaking down Kluber for Clase who they're eventually going to flip for more pieces. The Rays flipped Archer for half a team's worth (slight exaggeration) of prospects, including Tyler Glasnow who they then flipped for Ryan Pepiot plus.

Trading for prospects is far from a guaranteed outcome. You never know what you're going to get. Sometimes you flip CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta. But sometimes you flip Juan Soto for a 24-year-old SS with a 134 wRC+, a 22-year-old LF with a 147 wRC+, and a 26-year-old SP with a 3.02 ERA. And maybe 23-year-old Robert Hassell figures it out for them, too. And 21-year-old Jarlin Susana is still a top 100 prospect from that deal on his way to the majors with a 100 mph fastball and one of the best sliders on the planet. I'd say that trade is turning out alright for them and Soto had multiple years left on his deal.

It's all a crapshoot. Always. Holding guys and losing them for a singular comp pick is a risk, too. Every roster decision is a risk one way or the other. If you get a Soto deal it most definitely pays off.

[jorgenswest]

41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd say looking at 5 prospects from 1 year is a pretty small sample size. The Nats are pretty happy with Abrams, Gore, and Wood who they got in a singular trade. The Astros are sure glad they traded Josh Fields. They got some fella named Yordan for him. The Royals are pretty happy with Cole Ragans for a couple months of Aroldis Chapman in a lost season. Cleveland traded 2 years of a breaking down Kluber for Clase who they're eventually going to flip for more pieces. The Rays flipped Archer for half a team's worth (slight exaggeration) of prospects, including Tyler Glasnow who they then flipped for Ryan Pepiot plus.

Trading for prospects is far from a guaranteed outcome. You never know what you're going to get. Sometimes you flip CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta. But sometimes you flip Juan Soto for a 24-year-old SS with a 134 wRC+, a 22-year-old LF with a 147 wRC+, and a 26-year-old SP with a 3.02 ERA. And maybe 23-year-old Robert Hassell figures it out for them, too. And 21-year-old Jarlin Susana is still a top 100 prospect from that deal on his way to the majors with a 100 mph fastball and one of the best sliders on the planet. I'd say that trade is turning out alright for them and Soto had multiple years left on his deal.

It's all a crapshoot. Always. Holding guys and losing them for a singular comp pick is a risk, too. Every roster decision is a risk one way or the other. If you get a Soto deal it most definitely pays off.

Fair enough. I am not arguing that teams are never happy. I think it is hard. I think it is better to look at a group of those considered to be the top and then see how many are helping. It gives a better idea of the likelihood of success. Here are MLB’s top 10 traded prospects from 2023. 

1. Luisangel Acuna
2. Drew Gilbert
3. Kyle Manzardo
4. Edgar Quero
5. Jake Eder
6. Ryan Clifford
7. Nick Nastrini
8. Marco Vargas
9. Hao-Yu Lee
10. Tekoah Roby

This group is two years out so it matches the control of Ryan or Duran. Look at the 10 or go look at the entire list of 40 in the link. How many of these players have positively impacted their new team’s fortunes two years out? I want the new team owners to decide if they will rebuild. Wait a year before trading Ryan or Duran. I think the likelihood that the 2026 or 2027 team is better as a result of the trade is pretty small. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Fair enough. I am not arguing that teams are never happy. I think it is hard. I think it is better to look at a group of those considered to be the top and then see how many are helping. It gives a better idea of the likelihood of success. Here are MLB’s top 10 traded prospects from 2023. 

1. Luisangel Acuna
2. Drew Gilbert
3. Kyle Manzardo
4. Edgar Quero
5. Jake Eder
6. Ryan Clifford
7. Nick Nastrini
8. Marco Vargas
9. Hao-Yu Lee
10. Tekoah Roby

This group is two years out so it matches the control of Ryan or Duran. Look at the 10 or go look at the entire list of 40 in the link. How many of these players have positively impacted their new team’s fortunes two years out? I want the new team owners to decide if they will rebuild. Wait a year before trading Ryan or Duran. I think the likelihood that the 2026 or 2027 team is better as a result of the trade is pretty small. 

It 100% depends on what kind of trades you're looking for. Are you dealing Duran for a Rushing type who is already in the bigs or somebody who was just drafted so is likely years away? Are you relying on your internal guys to fill the roles for 2026 and 2027 while the guys you receive in trade are the guys you're looking to be the 2028 or 2029 wave? 

I'm not arguing one way or the other. I'd also wait on the bigger trades. Not a year necessarily, but until the offseason, at least. I'd trade every last expiring contract this month, though. And anyone else I didn't plan to have back that I could get anything at all for. I'd trade one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober this offseason, though. Because I don't see any other path to improving the position player side. And without improvement there all you're doing is repeating 2024 and 2025 in 2026 and I see no point in that. But I think that deal is better made this offseason. 

But, yes, you can come up with countless examples of prospects that got moved in trades and didn't do anything. It's absolutely no sure thing. Prospects fail all the time. It's why counting on Jenkins, Emma, LK, GG, et al to be the answer to 2026 isn't a good plan to me. You need to add more to that group because so many of them are going to fail. I just don't get what other answer there is. Continuing to run it back with this same position player group until the pitching all runs out of team control makes no sense to me. This position player group isn't good enough. There's no money to go buy better ones. You can't trade the expiring contracts for good enough guys to improve them. It's going to take a trade that hurts to truly improve. And waiting until after 2026 just means, to me, that you wasted 2026. So, I think you have to take the risk this offseason. And it is a risk. But not taking that risk is just a different kind of risk. One we've seen play out already.

[jorgenswest]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Are you dealing Duran for a Rushing type who is already in the bigs or somebody who was just drafted so is likely years away?

Yes. You can add Anthony and Sasaki to the list.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Yes. You can add Anthony and Sasaki to the list.

I mean, Rushing is nowhere near the prospect those 2 guys are, but sure. There are MLB ready, or already debuted, prospects that get traded. Just because people are obsessed with Rushing around here doesn't mean he's Roman Anthony or Roki Sasaki.

[jorgenswest]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean, Rushing is nowhere near the prospect those 2 guys are, but sure. There are MLB ready, or already debuted, prospects that get traded. Just because people are obsessed with Rushing around here doesn't mean he's Roman Anthony or Roki Sasaki.

Agree on Rushing but it is really hard to find a catcher. The downside of a major leaguer is you don’t get the 6 years of service time.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Agree on Rushing but it is really hard to find a catcher. The downside of a major leaguer is you don’t get the 6 years of service time.

Rushing is going to be controlled through 2031. They'll get 6 years of service time from him. He wasn't called up early enough to qualify for a full year of service time.

[TheLeviathan]

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Yes. You can add Anthony and Sasaki to the list.

But you have to be somewhat realistic in what the returns will be too.  There is a chance, maybe even a very good chance, that the Twins get nothing out of selling off.  But what alternative is there?

Let's rewind to 2021: they dealt Cruz for Ryan, Berrios for Martin and SWR, and then some guys that mostly turned into nothing except Sisk who was dealt for Michael A. Taylor.  Clearly they didn't come out ahead on Berrios, but they definitely did on Cruz.  The other guys were received for humans that were barely worth giving a uniform in Happ and Robles.  

But what else happened in 2021?  Cubs got PCA for Baez.  Nats got Lane Thomas for Lester.  Cubs got Alcantara for Rizzo.  Rangers got Duran and Smith for Gallo.  Marlins got Luzardo for Marte.  There were also some bad returns.  (Looking at you Nats for Turner and Scherzer, among others)

But what if the Twins had been in the mix with Polanco?  Or Donaldson?  Or Sano?  Kepler? Duffy?  Colome?  Theilbar?  Would we have desperately missed any of those guys in the last four years or might it have been nice to snag some lotto tickets we might be cashing in today?  Worst case scenario......we end up with squat.  But...isn't that what we got anyway?

(To be clear...I'm on the "Extend Ryan, deal Lopez this offseason" train when it comes to the rotation.  But we should absolutely be dealing Duran or Jax if the offers are juicy)

[jorgenswest]

41 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

But you have to be somewhat realistic in what the returns will be too.  There is a chance, maybe even a very good chance, that the Twins get nothing out of selling off.  But what alternative is there?

Let's rewind to 2021: they dealt Cruz for Ryan, Berrios for Martin and SWR, and then some guys that mostly turned into nothing except Sisk who was dealt for Michael A. Taylor.  Clearly they didn't come out ahead on Berrios, but they definitely did on Cruz.  The other guys were received for humans that were barely worth giving a uniform in Happ and Robles.  

But what else happened in 2021?  Cubs got PCA for Baez.  Nats got Lane Thomas for Lester.  Cubs got Alcantara for Rizzo.  Rangers got Duran and Smith for Gallo.  Marlins got Luzardo for Marte.  There were also some bad returns.  (Looking at you Nats for Turner and Scherzer, among others)

But what if the Twins had been in the mix with Polanco?  Or Donaldson?  Or Sano?  Kepler? Duffy?  Colome?  Theilbar?  Would we have desperately missed any of those guys in the last four years or might it have been nice to snag some lotto tickets we might be cashing in today?  Worst case scenario......we end up with squat.  But...isn't that what we got anyway?

(To be clear...I'm on the "Extend Ryan, deal Lopez this offseason" train when it comes to the rotation.  But we should absolutely be dealing Duran or Jax if the offers are juicy)

Our bar for juicy is likely different. I would take a medium/low risk FV 55 paired with a medium/low FV50. Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries might be on the high risk side but they are a 55 and 50 and catchers are in short supply. 

[TheLeviathan]

10 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Our bar for juicy is likely different. I would take a medium/low risk FV 55 paired with a medium/low FV50. Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries might be on the high risk side but they are a 55 and 50 and catchers are in short supply. 

I just don't think you're going to get both of them.  But I have no problem demanding at least one of them in a deal.