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Posted
Image courtesy of David Richard and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins find themselves in a difficult midseason position, caught between contention and caution. Hovering around the playoff picture, they’ve leaned heavily on one of baseball’s best bullpens to stay afloat. But with the trade deadline looming on July 31, there’s a growing case for selling, especially when you look at what top relievers have returned at recent trade deadlines.

Could this be the time for Derek Falvey to cash in on Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, or even Danny Coulombe? If recent deals are any indication, the return might be too tempting to ignore.

Tanner Scott Headlines a Bullpen Boom
Last year, the Padres made the biggest bullpen blockbuster, acquiring All-Star closer Tanner Scott and swingman Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins. The return? Four prospects, including Robby Snelling, San Diego’s No. 2 prospect and a top-50 name across MLB, plus fellow top-five system arms Adam Mazur and Graham Pauley. That’s a massive haul for two relievers, the far better of whom (Scott) was a free agent at the end of 2024.

Scott’s numbers at the time (1.18 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 45 2/3 IP) were undeniably elite, and he had the “proven closer” label. Duran and Jax, by contrast, bring not just performance but two more years of team control. That’s worth something—potentially, a lot.

Lower Tiers Still Yield Talent
Not every trade at recent deadlines has been a blockbuster, but even lesser relievers pull in real value:

These aren’t just trades for lottery tickets. Teams are paying real talent for relievers, even rentals. That makes you wonder: What would a team offer for Jax or Duran, who are under control through 2027 and carry better numbers than some of the names mentioned above?

Coulombe: A Logical Trade Chip
If the Twins don’t want to part with long-term assets, Coulombe is the obvious name to watch. The 34-year-old lefty has quietly put together one of the best seasons of his career, with a 0.68 ERA and a 27.9 K%. He’s also a free agent after this season.

Think David Robertson in 2023, who brought the Mets two promising FCL-level prospects despite being a 38-year-old rental. He also netted the Cubs intriguing pitcher Ben Brown as a rental at the 2022 deadline. Players at the FCL level and pitchers with long injury histories are wild cards, but if a team like the Twins gets enough wild cards, one will turn into an impact big-league player. Coulombe might not have Robertson’s resume, but he’s been at his best in 2025. Teams looking for left-handed relief will come calling.

The Wild Cards: Duran and Jax
Let’s be clear: moving Duran would be a massive, headline-grabbing deal. He’s one of the few relievers in baseball with the stuff to dominate in multiple ways, with his sheer velocity commanding attention but his curveball and splinker being the keys to his high strikeout and ground-ball rates. At the 2023 deadline, Jordan Hicks brought back two high-upside Double-A arms as a rental (Blue Jays’ No. 7 prospect Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein). Duran would fetch significantly more, thanks to his elite metrics and extra years of control.

Jax is quietly just as valuable, in his own way. He’s become one of MLB’s most reliable setup men, posting back-to-back strong seasons. There has been some bad luck tied to his overall numbers this year, as he has an ERA above 4.00 but a FIP below 2.00. His career-high 37.9% strikeout rate is something that will play in the postseason. A contender looking for a bridge to October might be willing to part with multiple top-100 prospects to solidify their bullpen’s highest-leverage innings, this year and in each of the next two.

These Aren’t Perfect Comps, But the Market Is Loud
Not every trade listed is a clean comparison. Duran and Jax aren’t rentals, and the leverage of having them locked up through 2027 increases their value, but it also raises the bar for the return. The Twins would need to be overwhelmed to part with either.

Still, the message from previous years’ markets is clear: contenders pay heavily for bullpen help, and Minnesota might hold the cards everyone wants. If the Twins choose to take a half-step back, the bullpen is where they could make the most significant leap forward to keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible. After all, relievers are volatile. Prospects are currency. And this deadline, the price has never been higher.

The Twins don’t have to sell. But if they do, they might be surprised how much someone’s willing to pay for 100-mph heat and a devastating splinker.


What do you think: Should the Twins capitalize on the market for bullpen arms or hold tight for a playoff push? Share your take in the comments below!


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Posted

As I've predicted the last 2 seasons, the Twins will not make the postseason. Because of how the rotation & catching are constructed, they will peter out, along with some young players. & that's not including any unplanned injuries. The Twins will falter again down the stretch, unfortunately. Not because of the core per se, but how the team has been constructed around the core, to make the team stronger.

That said, should we trade any of the RPs mentioned? If any trade blows my sox off & makes our weak areas stronger w/o compromising our BP; then I'd say yes. But as of now, I haven't seen any trades that come close. IMO, this core is our best chance to advance. We have wasted 2 years of our window, so let's make a change next season.

Posted

Bullpen arms are so overvalued, especially carrying forward due to their extreme volitility. 

Not to mention this bullpen, high in talent for sure, proclaimed as one of the best in the league the last two seasons has actually faltered with results in the bottom half of the league. 

They have the highest FIP and WAR since 2024? Cool. They are also 21st in ERA, 24th in LOB%. Resulting in the 23rd highest WPA as a unit. 

Trade 2 of the 3 of Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran. Trade Coulombe. Trade Topa if anyone's interested. 

Reset the bullpen because who knows how effective any of these guys will be in 2027, which is when the Twins should be building their roster towards. You'd still have Varland, Sands and a bunch of hungry kids that you can patch together with quality waiver pick ups. 

And as this article suggests, the return on these arms would surprise you. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

As I've predicted the last 2 seasons, the Twins will not make the postseason. Because of how the rotation & catching are constructed, they will peter out, along with some young players. & that's not including any unplanned injuries. The Twins will falter again down the stretch, unfortunately. Not because of the core per se, but how the team has been constructed around the core, to make the team stronger.

That said, should we trade any of the RPs mentioned? If any trade blows my sox off & makes our weak areas stronger w/o compromising our BP; then I'd say yes. But as of now, I haven't seen any trades that come close. IMO, this core is our best chance to advance. We have wasted 2 years of our window, so let's make a change next season.

Well the Twins did make the past season 2 years ago and still have a chance to this year.  But ya congrats on picking your favorite team to lose every year.  Sounds like a fun way to be.

Posted

I say in every trade situation, if the team does not believe they can play a good second half to push into post season, as a wild card, then you should trade any FA that can get anything back of value.  In terms of the guys with years of control that takes a little more thought. 

Posted

Here is an exact quote from Dan Hayes in his article today. I won't give the whole article away, but I found it interesting. Published at 5:15am.

"It's conceivable the Twins could trade one of their talented team-controlled relievers, Duran, Jax or Stewart. However, it would be shocking if they traded any for prospects unless they received a massive overpay. The likelier path to parting with one of their relievers is by adding a major-league bat they think could immediately help the team. Essentially, they'd be trading from a strength to fill a weakness."

Take that for what you will.

Posted

The return is all that matters. Even pretty good prospects are still prospects. There are clear differences between the top 10-20 and the remainder of the top 100 prospects. 

For pure speculation, we can look to Philadelphia and the Dodgers. The Phillies need to push their chips in. The writers tell us that their top guy, Andrew Painter, is not available. Duran should return #47 (Justin Crawford-OF), #61 (Eduardo Tait-C), and #85 (Mick Abel-SP). Even those 3 might not be enough. Demand Painter and Crawford while adding Bader and Dameury Pena from the Twins side.

The Dodgers are, seemingly, always in the driver's seat and would be difficult because their wants are more for excess than need. My only guess might be far off. I'm looking to add a catcher (Dalton Rushing) and a couple of pitchers (Emmet Sheehan and River Ryan) from LAD. I would offer Jax, Vazquez, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Adrian Bohorquez. I have no clue whether that works for either team.

The returns are important

Posted
3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is an exact quote from Dan Hayes in his article today. I won't give the whole article away, but I found it interesting. Published at 5:15am.

"It's conceivable the Twins could trade one of their talented team-controlled relievers, Duran, Jax or Stewart. However, it would be shocking if they traded any for prospects unless they received a massive overpay. The likelier path to parting with one of their relievers is by adding a major-league bat they think could immediately help the team. Essentially, they'd be trading from a strength to fill a weakness."

Take that for what you will.

Are contending teams looking to add pieces at the deadline all that interested in giving up major league bats? I guess in certain cases, but if that's what the Twins are holding out for in trade compensation, I'd bet this ends up being a stand-pat deadline

Posted

would look to move either Duran or Jax.....best deal I like both....but time to reload....then move Varland into the setup roll.......This team isn't going anywhere...time to build for the future.....Coulombe..if it's the right deal of course.......hold starting pitching never have enough..and w Lopez not healthy he would be the one to move and give the money to the younger guys.....

Also look to move position guys you can get prospects for....and cut salary.....

if they can finish around .500 that is a good year for this team......

Posted

I am torn as usual. Duran is a bit of a unicorn pitcher as stated in the article he has velocity and he has movement.  He has that big body with a rare\special arm.  He is not easily replaceable IMO.  Still if the Twins don't plan on keeping him long term or really past one more season I'd be listening.

The Twins just don't like to allocate much money to the pen.  Duran is set for a big raise this coming year and then the year after an even bigger one.  A reliever only controls one inning of the game.  Granted if it is the closer in a one run game a very important one inning.  If you are going to trade a player in an area you have some excess not much, but arguably some. I'd say trading even an elite reliever depending on the haul makes sense.

Here is the difficult part for me.  hypothetically if the Twins just kept Duran despite his price tag until the end they would get two and half years of an elite arm and likely a top 30 draft pick as compensation when he leaves.  So the asking price is pretty astronomical here.  I'd want to be compensated for that future draft pick plus the essentially three years of control for Duran as the team that acquires him would use him in the playoffs for three years.  I'd be looking for multiple top 100 picks and maybe some lotto's thrown in.  I would need three solid players prospects to get a deal like that done and who is going to pay that?  I guess that is my question.

Granted who ever gets him, gets one of the elite arms in baseball for three years.  The prospects may or may not pan out.  That is the hard part.  Still it would be a steep price at this stage for me to trade Duran, but yeah if someone did pony up I'd be very tempted to do that deal.  Especially if you don't plan on hanging onto him to the end.

Posted
29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The return is all that matters. Even pretty good prospects are still prospects. There are clear differences between the top 10-20 and the remainder of the top 100 prospects. 

For pure speculation, we can look to Philadelphia and the Dodgers. The Phillies need to push their chips in. The writers tell us that their top guy, Andrew Painter, is not available. Duran should return #47 (Justin Crawford-OF), #61 (Eduardo Tait-C), and #85 (Mick Abel-SP). Even those 3 might not be enough. Demand Painter and Crawford while adding Bader and Dameury Pena from the Twins side.

The returns are important

Yeah I think that Philly deal sounds about right.  All three are top 100 prospects, but all three have question marks.  Crawford is a center fielder that might not have much power. Tait is an 18 year old catcher that is far from elite defensively and Abel is a starter who has control problems and failed to stick in the Phillies rotation.  Still that is a heck of haul and sounds about right for Duran.

I'd think Crawford would be the key to a deal.  He's a plus runner has been hitting at a high level at a young age with a good OBP.  He would be great Buxton insurance and could play the Bader role in left for sure and possibly right as he has a plus arm just not a canon.  Tait would give the Twins their first top 100 catcher since Mauer although at 18 he has a long way to go. Abel gives you an arm for an arm. Granted not equal value but a possible future starter.  That would be mighty hard to turn down IMO.

Posted
25 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is an exact quote from Dan Hayes in his article today. I won't give the whole article away, but I found it interesting. Published at 5:15am.

"It's conceivable the Twins could trade one of their talented team-controlled relievers, Duran, Jax or Stewart. However, it would be shocking if they traded any for prospects unless they received a massive overpay. The likelier path to parting with one of their relievers is by adding a major-league bat they think could immediately help the team. Essentially, they'd be trading from a strength to fill a weakness."

Take that for what you will.

Trying to imagine what this would look like. Duran for Mark Vientos? Or Ronny Mauricio? 

Concur with above, seems like the Twins expecting the wrong return and going to result in little activity. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is an exact quote from Dan Hayes in his article today. I won't give the whole article away, but I found it interesting. Published at 5:15am.

"It's conceivable the Twins could trade one of their talented team-controlled relievers, Duran, Jax or Stewart. However, it would be shocking if they traded any for prospects unless they received a massive overpay. The likelier path to parting with one of their relievers is by adding a major-league bat they think could immediately help the team. Essentially, they'd be trading from a strength to fill a weakness."

Take that for what you will.

I concur trade from your strengths to fill your weaknesses  , all I know is that the FO repeatedly has said they like this core and hasn't done any real trading at the deadline since 2022 , they shouldn't have either , they should have waited till 2023 deadline because we were a much better team , but they didn't...

Posted
1 hour ago, se7799 said:

Well the Twins did make the past season 2 years ago and still have a chance to this year.  But ya congrats on picking your favorite team to lose every year.  Sounds like a fun way to be.

You stated that this core was able to advance in the postseason in '23. I must add, despite not really adding at the deadline & faulty philosophy. '24 they brought their faulty philosophy front & center, lost from the core  & didn't attempt to fix it or build off the chemistry. '25, they still failed to correct our weaknesses. You can believe the hype that Falvey is a genius & our problem is the core. Of course, our problem can't be Falvey, so our only solution is to tear down the core, fill our farm with redundant prospects we'll never trade & look to Falvey & Jenkins to be our saviors 5 years down the road, only to be disappointed again. 

I agree, Correa has been a disappointment & a mystery this season. He is too good to be this bad with no real explanation why or how they plan to fix it. Normally, Correa starts slow but by Sept & Oct, he flips the switch. He is the key to our postseason success. This uncertainty that hangs over Correa makes it hard to envision him to be that wonder. But Buxton, Ryan & Castro have been excelling. Lewis will leave his injury bug behind him & rake. Our BP can be great, Lopez will be back. Ober, Matthews, SWR & Festa will figure it out. The goal of this FO should be to get this team to the postseason, have the players rested & injury free, trade off high on players who are not needed for players who'll shore up our weaknesses & step out the way & let the core do their thing. This FO has failed on each account.

Posted

The RP that has not been mentioned is Brock Stewart.  He has been good this year and in the past with a high K rate when healthy.  He is not a free agent until 2028 but he is 33 years old.  It just takes one team that sees him as dominant for this year with the possibility of another year or two.  Maybe I am being a homer but I don't think Stewart gets enough credit.

Posted

As excited as I am every year with rating and ranting about the prospects down on the farm as well as poring over the MLB Draft and the Twins selections - It always comes down to this for me...Prospects equate POTENTIAL AND PROMISE - Not actual MLB PERFORMANCE. When they perform all is warm and fuzzy. When they fail to fulfill potential - So frustrating! Jorge Alcala was recently traded - SO much potential. Prime example of the double edged quality that prospects hold. 

Detroit had how many All-Stars on the field last night?? Seems like they gave up runs while scoring none. Is the MLB Central race over? Buxton and Ryan played well. Still feel that the key to the Twins second half success is the play of Correa. Taken high in the same Draft as Byron, Carlos' play has paled in comparison this year. Getting our Ace back at a healthy high level will be huge as well. The Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals, and Red Sox stand between now and the 6 PM 7/31 Deadline. This is where GMs and Owners provide insight and leadership in knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. The prospects returned in folding bring back potential and promise - Not guaranteed MLB performance. Win Twins!!

Posted
16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The RP that has not been mentioned is Brock Stewart.  He has been good this year and in the past with a high K rate when healthy.  He is not a free agent until 2028 but he is 33 years old.  It just takes one team that sees him as dominant for this year with the possibility of another year or two.  Maybe I am being a homer but I don't think Stewart gets enough credit.

No, you're absolutely right. No team will overpay for his years of control due to his injury history, and he's so risky already nearing his career high in innings. But he's been very effective when healthy and would return a decent prospect. Maybe one that looks like Gabriel Gonzalez when he came over from Seattle, borderline Top 100. 

As a Mets fan, I constantly think in terms of what could/should the Mets send to make a fair trade. And I think someone like AJ Ewing or Ryan Clifford seems about right. Ewing a very athletic outfielder that doesn't look like he'll ever really hit for power, Ryan Clifford a power bat-only player that looks like he'll struggle to hit .240. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The RP that has not been mentioned is Brock Stewart.  He has been good this year and in the past with a high K rate when healthy.  He is not a free agent until 2028 but he is 33 years old.  It just takes one team that sees him as dominant for this year with the possibility of another year or two.  Maybe I am being a homer but I don't think Stewart gets enough credit.

Stewart has been good, I agree. However, he is not in any conversations as being an equal of Duran or Jax and thus he would not bring back much more than a lottery ticket. Stewart is more valuable to Minnesota than a player he would return. Still, I'll listen.

Does anyone believe this Twins roster can win the World Series this year? The Cubs do not regret trading Gleybar Torres for Chapman, not one bit. The Twins have an opportunity to upgrade their roster. I believe they should.

There have been numerous people talking about "core" players. Please allow me to suggest that in 1991, Hrbek, Knoblauch. Gagne, Puckett, and Mack were core players and one could add Davis and Harper too. Core players from 1987, Gaetti and Brunansky, were traded. I'm not sure what criteria people would use for the 2023-2025 teams. Was Julien a core player? When I look at the Twins roster I see that Correa has a NTC that has several runs left, which means he will be a Twin. If I am super generous .... maybe (but no) I include Jeffers. Byron Buxton is the only core player, full stop. One (1) core player means that some change needs to occur. Maybe it can be Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, or Emmanuel Rodriguez. Perhaps Royce Lewis sits out the remainder of the year and comes back next year fully healthy. We cannot predict the future. Right now, he is a shadow of his former promise who garnered everlasting cache with some grand slams in the past. Things can always change and we hope for the best. Hope, however, is not a strategy.

 

Posted
46 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Trying to imagine what this would look like. Duran for Mark Vientos? Or Ronny Mauricio? 

Concur with above, seems like the Twins expecting the wrong return and going to result in little activity. 

I understand that you are a Mets fan, but I don't see anything for the Twins in their system. That isn't a dig at the fine prospects in the Mets system or the players on their current roster like Mauricio or Vientos. Additionally, the Mets have a fantastic closer and are not likely to overpay in the fashion that Philadelphia might (or should). A few teams have a window where they must gamble or have regrets. The Twins are holding the chips (Duran, Jax) and should expect a haul. They can get it too. The question is whether the MN front office will act.

Posted
47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The RP that has not been mentioned is Brock Stewart.  He has been good this year and in the past with a high K rate when healthy.  He is not a free agent until 2028 but he is 33 years old.  It just takes one team that sees him as dominant for this year with the possibility of another year or two.  Maybe I am being a homer but I don't think Stewart gets enough credit.

The numbers are good on Brock and pretty much have been for a while.  I think he has that kind of caliber of arm, but as mentioned by others his age and injury history, especially generally not lasting a full season, would have to give teams pause as a playoff solution.

Also where are the Twins going to find essentially a closer type arm for around 1M dollars.  His value to the team is far greater than what he could return in trade unless someone really ponies up.

Posted
9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Core players from 1987, Gaetti and Brunansky, were traded.

Even more importantly, ace Frank Viola was traded for 5 players that included Aguilar and Tapani, not to mention David West. These three players pitched a combined 384.1 innings in '91 to a 3.16 ERA. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Rufus said:

Why would they trade Coulombe?  He is the only reliable left they have?

Because he only has half a year left on his contract and the way he has pitched the last few years he is going to cost more money that the Twins would likely spend for a reliever. So they won't extend him. 

If he were to fetch a decent prospect it could help build the team for the future.  If that prospect works out they would have 6 years of control of that prospect for giving up half a year of Coulumbe.  Or they use the prospect acquired to get something else they need down the line.  Or if they don't trade him they get nothing.  except a maybe they make the wild card, maybe they don't chance and that's it.

The question is do you push the chips in on this team or cash out and try again another day\year.  The FO will have to decide.

Posted
16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I understand that you are a Mets fan, but I don't see anything for the Twins in their system. That isn't a dig at the fine prospects in the Mets system or the players on their current roster like Mauricio or Vientos. Additionally, the Mets have a fantastic closer and are not likely to overpay in the fashion that Philadelphia might (or should). A few teams have a window where they must gamble or have regrets. The Twins are holding the chips (Duran, Jax) and should expect a haul. They can get it too. The question is whether the MN front office will act.

Totally fair. Just trying to imagine what sort of level of "major league bat" they'd even be able to get back. 

Specifically on the Phillies, I don't see a single mlb ready bat that they'd be able to trade away. 

Posted
1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Even more importantly, ace Frank Viola was traded for 5 players that included Aguilar and Tapani, not to mention David West. These three players pitched a combined 384.1 innings in '91 to a 3.16 ERA. 

Yes. I keep position players separate from pitching. Naturally I would add pitchers if not solely focused on position players.

Posted

Nobody is going to pay what Duran and Jax are worth. What you will receive will be similar to what you would receive next year at this same time. Prospects are just that. Nothing is for sure and these 2 are proven MLB top tier relievers with very manageable salaries. In my mind unless you are getting proven MLB talent in return why would you trade. The team is closer to contention and playoffs than it is not. Play the games for 2 weeks. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Totally fair. Just trying to imagine what sort of level of "major league bat" they'd even be able to get back. 

Specifically on the Phillies, I don't see a single mlb ready bat that they'd be able to trade away. 

Crawford is a stretch, especially because he puts the ball on the ground so much at AAA. The Phillies are in a tough spot though and despite proclamations of Painter as untouchable, they may need to cave to acquire a closer and a RH OF bat. I would demand Painter and Crawford for Duran, Bader, and 2 milb players (Pena and Bohorquz). 

An MLB bat worth acquiring costs more than a closer (Ryan?).

Posted
2 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Nobody is going to pay what Duran and Jax are worth. What you will receive will be similar to what you would receive next year at this same time. Prospects are just that. Nothing is for sure and these 2 are proven MLB top tier relievers with very manageable salaries. In my mind unless you are getting proven MLB talent in return why would you trade. The team is closer to contention and playoffs than it is not. Play the games for 2 weeks. 

I guess the Twins could finish with 83-87 wins and bring the same team back again next year and then we can have this same discussion again. Do you think the Twins have any shot in the playoffs this year?

There are teams needing a piece or two, either utility players or pitching. The Twins have utility players and pitching. On the position side the Twins have Buxton. That's it. If Buxton goes down, the Twins are going to be chasing the White Sox. It might be time for some changes. Either way, we will tune in and there is no reason to get upset. I'm living with whatever.

Posted
2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Crawford is a stretch, especially because he puts the ball on the ground so much at AAA. The Phillies are in a tough spot though and despite proclamations of Painter as untouchable, they may need to cave to acquire a closer and a RH OF bat. I would demand Painter and Crawford for Duran, Bader, and 2 milb players (Pena and Bohorquz). 

An MLB bat worth acquiring costs more than a closer (Ryan?).

It's worth asking. And I think Duran/Scott are fairly good comps in terms of top level talent going out. Painter is a consensus 3 year top 30 prospect, high-end potential arm, whereas the Padres received a 1 year consensus top 60 prospect. 

It's a big ask, and isn't going to happen, but nothing hurt by asking. 

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