Reds 6, Twins 5: Twins Snatch Fifth Straight Loss from the Jaws of Victory

[Steven Trefz]

Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: David Festa 3.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K (81 pitches, 49 strikes (60%))
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (12), Harrison Bader (7)
Bottom 3 WPA: Brock Stewart (-.341), Festa (-.244), Christian Vázquez (-.202)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

The Twins entered the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati reeling from a sweep in Houston, losers of eight of 10 overall. The Reds tamed the Tigers over the weekend, and looked to keep climbing the National League Central standings after getting back over the .500 mark. David Festa looked to build upon his outstanding start last time out against the Rangers, while the Reds turned to lefty Andrew Abbott and his sub-2.00 ERA. In a stadium built for offense, the Twins hoped that their sluggish bats could rise to the challenge.

Buxton Makes His All-Star Plea
The first inning and a half came and went without much fanfare, but the bottom of the second brought an odd injury that would eventually change the makeup of the umpiring crew and a defensive play that got Twins fans off their feet. While Tyler Stephenson was leading off the inning for the Reds, a foul tip caught the home plate umpire, Tony Randazzo, square, and led to a delay while trainers attended to him. While Festa recovered from the delay to strike out Stephenson and then former Twins prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson took a 1-1 changeup deep to right center field for what appeared to be a go-ahead homer. Byron Buxton made sure that all anybody saw was a web gem and a third out.

Not to be outdone by himself, Buxton came up with one out in the top of the third inning and showed everyone what hitting a home run to that part of Great American Ballpark actually looks like for a 1-0 Twins lead.

After Buxton's heroics, the previously wounded umpire Randazzo was forced to leave the game, leaving the crew a man short with most of the game to go. With a new strike zone appearing mid-start, how would the game be impacted?

Errors Cost Festa and the Twins
Turns out the strike zone was the least of the teams' worries in the middle innings. Sloppy defense has plagued the Twins over the past few weeks and on Tuesday night the miscues once again cost the Twins dearly. A leadoff walk to Gavin Lux in the bottom of the fourth didn't help Festa's cause, and once Elly De La Cruz switched places with him after a groundout things truly began to unravel for the young righty. De La Cruz distracted Festa, and eventually stole second, which led to a Stephenson walk and an official threat forming. The Twins thought they had escaped when Encarnacion-Strand popped up to Ryan Jeffers, but the aforementioned Benson kept his next blast lower in launch angle and plated two runs with a double. Festa did get out of the jam by striking out another former Twins prospect Spencer Steer, but Jeffers couldn't corral the pitch and Steer advanced to first on a passed ball as Benson took third. Steer stole second to gain scoring position, and Jake Fraley made the error hurt (remember that!) with a single that plated two more Reds, ended Festa's night early, and made it a 4-1 Cincinnati lead.

Making Errors Hurt is the Name of the Game
Abbott was cruising along with his newfound lead until the top of the sixth inning, when with two outs, Ty France grounded out to Encarnacion-Stand for the third out. But the former Twin helped out the club that drafted him by chucking the throw wide of first, and France was hustling and reached safely. This opened the gate, and Brooks Lee extended his hit streak to 15 with a single to get France into scoring position. Trevor Larnach appreciated that gesture, and scored France with a single of his own to close the gap to 4-2. Then with two out, and two on, Harrison Bader hit a long fly ball to deep right field. The previous hero Fraley helped the ball go just a bit farther, over the wall for a gift three-run home run. Seriously. It happened. Just watch the Twins take the lead at 5-4!

Bullpens Determine the Outcome, Yet Again
The good vibes didn't last long for Twins fans, as the Reds stormed right back in the bottom of the sixth. Brock Stewart mowed down the first two batters in short order, but Fraley redeemed himself slightly with a single to start the dominos and Matt McClain followed with a single of his own to push Fraley into scoring position. Turns out that McClain was also in scoring position, because TJ Friedl drifted a double just past a diving Matt Wallner, and with two outs, both runners scored easily to give the Reds a 6-5 advantage yet again. The Twins needed 81 pitches from five relievers to cover for Festa's short start, but they managed to keep it a one-run game into the top of the ninth.

The Twins, however, couldn't match with a rally of their own against the Reds bullpen and long-lost closer (and yet another former Twin) Emilio Pagán. After replacing Jeffers due to injury mid-game, Christian Vazquez came up with the tying at second and two outs against the former most-hated reliever in Twins history, and he went back to the dugout after being the latest victim to fall to Pagan who now has 17 saves (Jhoan Duran has only 10 on the season). This sums up the past two weeks brilliantly, as the game ended in a fifth straight Twins loss and a slide back to .500 baseball.

What’s Next?
The Twins will attempt to break this losing streak once again on Wednesday night, and they'll be counting on Bailey Ober (4-3, 4.40 ERA) to recover from perhaps his worst start of the season. The Reds will counter with another lefty, Nick Lodolo (4-5, 3.76 ERA). Twins will be waiting to see if Jeffers can return to the lineup after bruising his hand at some point around the passed ball experience. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Stewart	0	0	10	0	33	43
Durán	0	20	21	0	0	41
Topa	16	0	0	0	17	33
Jax	17	13	0	0	0	30
Sands	0	0	12	0	16	28
Coulombe	19	0	0	0	4	23
Varland	0	0	22	0	0	22
Wentz	0	0	0	0	11	11

 

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[thelanges5]

This Gleeman skeet feels about right. 
 

Twins are now 78-84 in their last 162 games dating back to last season.

[USAFChief]

81 pitches from the pen.

Without a bottom 9.

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Let it burn baby! 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

This Gleeman skeet feels about right. 
 

Twins are now 78-84 in their last 162 games dating back to last season.

Honestly, it feels worse than that. 

[The Great Hambino]

They certainly have found a very schizophrenic way to be average

What exactly do they think will happen if they let Coulombe go out for another inning after throwing like four pitches?  Will he spontaneously combust?

[DJL44]

What the hell, Willi Castro. He forgets how many outs there are WAY too often.

[Steven Trefz]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What the hell, Willi Castro. He forgets how many outs there are WAY too often.

I was trying to recall the other instances, because it does seem like this is an annual event. Any idea how to check for that stat?

[Parfigliano]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

81 pitches from the pen.

Without a bottom 9.

 

 

 

Unsustainable.

[Western SD Fan]

Over the last 10 games, here's a list of teams who are better than us:  Marlins (6-4), Pirates (5-5), Rockies (4-6), White Sox (3-7), A's (6-4), Orioles (6-4).  Angels, who were left for dead, are only 1 game back from us in the standings.

[Parfigliano]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Let it burn baby! 

They need to burn it from the top down to the ground.  Off the top of my head keep Lee, Wallner, Keaschall, Buxton.

DFA Kiersey and Bride tonight.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

They need to burn it from the top down to the ground.  Off the top of my head keep Lee, Wallner, Keaschall, Buxton.

DFA Kiersey and Bride tonight.

Looking forward to that day. From ownership to MLB manager clean sweep. 

[Whitey333]

Sloppy baseball again.  It's the new norm.  Jeffers a key passed ball on a strikeout that led to two runs.  Kiersey,?  Not much to say there.  And Castro completely screwing up and not knowing how many outs on a double play he messed up.  Although it didn't cost the team a run it's indicative of the teams play including many tines players not hustling out ground balls to first.  It's a direct reflection on manager Baldelli.

[Parfigliano]

11 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Sloppy baseball again.  It's the new norm.  Jeffers a key passed ball on a strikeout that led to two runs.  Kiersey,?  Not much to say there.  And Castro completely screwing up and not knowing how many outs on a double play he messed up.  Although it didn't cost the team a run it's indicative of the teams play including many tines players not hustling out ground balls to first.  It's a direct reflection on manager Baldelli.

Years ago when they stunk winning 60 to 75 games they at least had some pride and played fundamentally sound baseball.  They just weren't talented enough to win.  Now they just go through the motions and phone it in every game.  

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

What the hell, Willi Castro. He forgets how many outs there are WAY too often.

The thing is, it didn't seem like he forgot how many outs.  He didn't react to the play that way 

If he thought that was the third out, he'd have caught the toss from C4, then reacted like...that was the 3rd out. Continued on past the bag out of the runners way, or casually stepped backwards towards the OF to avoid the runner.  Something. Infielders relax once the 3rd out is assured. 

But he didn't. He actually took the ball out of his glove and turned towards first.  Then he just...froze, or something.  It was weird. Like he forgot what action was next lol.

 

Very odd IYAM

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Years ago when they stunk winning 60 to 75 games they at least had some pride and played fundamentally sound baseball.  They just weren't talented enough to win.  Now they just go through the motions and phone it in every game.  

You have any evidence they aren't trying? You honestly think they aren't trying? Have no pride? 

[Maybe Next Year]

Please, please, please get rid of Baldelli! He has no clue how to develop young players, he has no clue how to manage a pitching staff and he has ZERO baseball sense. All he has is his damn computer spewing out analytics. 

[knothole61]

The sad stretch continues...but wasn't it nice to see Buxton return (none the worse for wear) after that potentially devastating HBP that kept him out of the game in Houston on Sunday. Heaven only knows what might have happened if Buxton (and his .850 OPS!) had been forced to pinch hit to start the 10th last Sunday with a sore elbow? But hey, he's so much better now: "wonder of wonders, miracle of miracles!"   

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Unsustainable.

Sure it is. Many teams do bullpen days as a matter of plan. It is not unusual. They don't try to sustain that either. What is unsustainable is Baldelli using 5-6 pitchers a game, even when the starter (53 pitches worth and cruzing) can go much farther. That is what should not happen, especially when the end result is a loss, anyway.

This is getting so I don't even want to see them in person in LA in July.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Sure it is. Many teams do bullpen days as a matter of plan. It is not unusual. They don't try to sustain that either. What is unsustainable is Baldelli using 5-6 pitchers a game, even when the starter (53 pitches worth and cruzing) can go much farther. That is what should not happen, especially when the end result is a loss, anyway.

This is getting so I don't even want to see them in person in LA in July.

Hard to find a box score any day with any 2  combinations of teams and not see each team use 3-4 relievers. Look at every game that happened today and report back. 

The funny part about any argument of pulling someone too early is what side you would be on if that pitcher gave up a bloop and blast to blow a lead if they were kept in? 

Don’t blame you for skipping an in-person visit of the Twins at this time! Maybe by that day in July they look okay to justify spending the money 

[Whitey333]

Oh please quit defending Rocco like he's this perfect manager and never makes a mistake.  And when he does you just cover it up like it's no big deal.  Since he has been here there is no accountability for the many failures of this team.  They play very undisciplined baseball.  They are listless an̈d don't play sound fundamental baseball.  They are terrible at making in game adjustments as th game is going on.  They plan They seem to make before the game is etched in stone and he refuses or is incapable of making in game adjustments.  His team is generally very boring to watch.  Attendance this year is likely to bottom out at about 1.6 million.  Well short of the 2 million they keep hoping for.  

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Hard to find a box score any day with any 2  combinations of teams and not see each team use 3-4 relievers. Look at every game that happened today and report back. 

The funny part about any argument of pulling someone too early is what side you would be on if that pitcher gave up a bloop and blast to blow a lead if they were kept in? 

 

Don’t blame you for skipping an in-person visit of the Twins at this time! Maybe by that day in July they look okay to justify spending the money 

3-4 is a lot different over the course of the season than 4-5. One is sustainable, one isn’t.

At 53 pitches trough 5, taking a no-hitter into the 5th, or was it a perfect game, and oh dear out of the 5th with a one hitter with a walk, (a hit and a walk is included almost every inning even for Duran lately) ……. I live with the guy smooth rolling like JJ Cale, at the very least to take the mound to start the 6th even in a World Series game. Look elsewhere for fickle. 53 and a one hitter? And it saves the pen?  Sometimes it’s more simple than simple. 

[Aerodeliria]

That's like the fourth time I've seen Wallner dive for a ball this year where he had no chance and where he or another outfielder had to go and pick up the ball at the warning track. The angle he took was terrible. That should have been a single. I'd rather see him stop the balls from going all the way to the wall than watch a steady stream of runners round the bases....

[Aerodeliria]

BTW, did Jeffers get injured or something?

[Doctor Wu]

On a somewhat positive note, as mentioned in the main article, Brooks Lee now has a 15 game hitting streak going, and he's shown a bit of power during this time too. It's an encouraging stretch for a player I was starting to have my doubts about. Not having seen any complete games, how does he look in the field this season?

[Peter]

Another gut wrenching loss! This has to end!!! We need to get full team back healthy!!! I’m not giving up on season like the rest of you as I’ll continue to watch every game no matter what!!! Once a twins fan always a twins fan!!! If you guys hate them so much go cheer for another team and leave this forum!!! Don’t turn this into toxic Facebook!!! We must must must support our twins win or lose no matter what!!! 

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Please, please, please get rid of Baldelli! He has no clue how to develop young players, he has no clue how to manage a pitching staff and he has ZERO baseball sense. All he has is his damn computer spewing out analytics. 

I'm not a fan of Baldelli, the biggest problem isn't Baldelli, If they fire him, Falvey will put in someone worse.

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Please, please, please get rid of Baldelli! He has no clue how to develop young players, he has no clue how to manage a pitching staff and he has ZERO baseball sense. All he has is his damn computer spewing out analytics. 

What the fans say about every manager on the inevitable losing streak.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

That's like the fourth time I've seen Wallner dive for a ball this year where he had no chance and where he or another outfielder had to go and pick up the ball at the warning track. The angle he took was terrible. That should have been a single. I'd rather see him stop the balls from going all the way to the wall than watch a steady stream of runners round the bases....

Thought they DH Larnach to keep his glove off but maybe they got the wrong guy..

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

BTW, did Jeffers get injured or something?

He took a foul ball off the hand, stayed in the game but was pinch hit for  the next inning.