Derek Falvey Has No Answers for Minnesota Twins' Ongoing Tailspin

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Lewis is relevant to this conversation to the extent that the front office has no idea what to do with him.

You and I can agree on a lot, but we won’t agree on Royce Lewis. 

I would have Lewis in the Twins lineup starting at shortstop against the Orioles Tuesday night. 

So let’s say the Twins lose, Lewis looks a little sluggish in the field, and goes 0-4 at the plate, with some missed chances to knock some runs in? Pat him on the back and say “get ‘em tomorrow”

The Twins must have someone who talks with Lewis, the Saints coaches, and evaluates whether he is physically ready for MLB. I'm watching the Saints game and he doesn't look fully healthy. However, I'm watching via milb.com which means I'm not seeing the full picture.

I'm not down on Royce at all but his flexibility, speed, and approach are a concern at this time. As a Twins fan I desperately want him to be successful.

To be fair to what you see as our differences, I did suggest that the Twins trade all of Lewis, Julien, and Julien after the 2023. Last October I suggested moving Lewis to first base and also wanted the Twins to trade Lee and Wallner. I guess I thought the value of players could be maximized but that is totally speculation on my part because it is fact that we do not know if other teams would offer a decent return for Twins players. I do fully support the Twins and continue to hope the team will rebound and play well.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Well I think calling Ober a 4 is ridiculous so your entire rant loses a lot of it's credibility right there. And a lot of it is a matter of opinion and guess work on the future of what Festa, Zebby, and the rest become. It took longer than it should have (in my opinion) to establish, but the results haven't all been tallied to make the declarations you're trying to make.

Bauer was mostly ok with Cleveland and didn't win a Cy Young until he openly started using "sticky stuff." He had a 4.32 combined ERA there his first 5 seasons. And they didn't get him as a minor leaguer, he'd already debuted for the Diamondbacks before he even got to Cleveland. But you left all of those details out of your rant because just putting "Cy Young" next to his name despite that it happened after he left Cleveland looks a whole lot better. Ryan and Ober haven't even gotten to the point of their career where Bauer got good yet.

Tanner Bibee gets a "future Cy Young?" next to his name? Why? Because he had a nice rookie year? He wasn't anything super special last year. If Ober is a #4 then so is Bibee because they're essentially the same guy. He's not super young or anything.

Kluber was never a top 100 prospect. So your assumption that none of the Twins current minor leaguers are going to do what he did doesn't carry any weight. He was a guy that came out of nowhere as a 4th round pick who debuted at the age of 25 and then had great success starting at the age of 27. 

Your rant is missing a whole lot of context so I'm glad it was cathartic because it wasn't all that accurate or meaningful when you actually dig into the details of the pitchers you named. Bauer, Ryan, and Ober listed in some order below. Their 2nd through 4th seasons since this is the start of Ryan and Ober's 5th season. See if you can pick out Bauer that was so much more dominant and "not comparable." 

 

 

Yeah, well, I think not adjusting WAR for innings pitched is intentionally manipulative. Top 100? Is that what makes stud pitchers? Where are the Cy Youngs for Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder? OHHHHH THERE AREN'T ANY. Lets give all our guys participation trophies. That's what's important in the Also Ran league.

Also, there's no chance in hell I'm using bWAR for a pitcher in the modern era. Their current methodology is total junk. I'm not really a fan of fWAR's "what should have happened" stuff, but at least I can back into it to make sense. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, well, I think not adjusting WAR for innings pitched is intentionally manipulative. Top 100? Is that what makes stud pitchers? Where are the Cy Youngs for Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder? OHHHHH THERE AREN'T ANY. Lets give all our guys participation trophies. That's what's important in the Also Ran league.

Also, there's no chance in hell I'm using bWAR for a pitcher in the modern era. Their current methodology is total junk. I'm not really a fan of fWAR's "what should have happened" stuff, but at least I can back into it to make sense. 

WAR? I never even mentioned WAR other than it being in that screenshot. And who cares about his WAR there. His ERA was 4.42 while both Ryan and Ober are under 4.00. ERA+ under 100 compared to Ryan and Ober over 100. And Bauer had the lowest K% with nearly double the BB%. Sure, throw WAR out the window. Ober-Bauer-Ryan was the order there. Bauer was the middle one, and by far the worst performer. Suggesting Bauer was some sort of success story with Cleveland in his first 5 seasons there while Ober and Ryan aren't success stories here is an absolutely wild take.

And the point of the Top 100 prospect comment wasn't at all to say Kluber wasn't great in the majors, it was to combat that Festa, Zebby, Lewis, and all the rest of the guys in the minors have little to no chance of being successes because they aren't highly rated prospects. I'm not banking on any of them being stars (as I said), but you've declared them as having essentially no chance while claiming Tanner Bibee as some sort of decent future Cy Young candidate.

You had a nice rant. It made you feel better. But it was seriously lacking in context. You've written Zebby off as some back end starter with no chance of being great. Here's Kluber's 2nd year (technically, but his first year was 4.1 bullpen innings) vs Zebby's first year. Kluber was 26 years old. Zebby 24. This is the point of the Top 100 prospect comment. Kluber was a 25-30 ranked system prospect who wasn't good until he was 27 years old. That's the point. You're writing off all these 22-24 year olds and I'm saying you're making that declaration way too soon. Kluber won 2 Cy Youngs after this age 26 season. I think you can give Zebby maybe a few more starts before you declare him finished.

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

As I said in a comment later in the thread, it may not be another POBO job. The Twins are constantly voted one of the 8-15 best front offices in baseball in surveys of executives year after year. Falvey is well respected amongst his peers. He's not going to be unemployed long. He'll be one of the top guys in another front office real quick.

If a special advisor role is a top guy in a FO, sure. Maybe even Cleveland will let him come back in that role 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If a special advisor role is a top guy in a FO, sure. Maybe even Cleveland will let him come back in that role 

Like Farhan Zaidi because well respected FO execs of even failed teams still get jobs? Sure, that's a good enough example. 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, PP24 said:

Rocco is not the problem. A different manager still has the same players and same front office philosophy.

There are many problems with this team. Rocco is one of them. Many larger organizations have a "front office philosophy," sure. But there are always managers in those organizations whose divisions/departments consistently overperform. And then you have others who consistently underperform. Rocco has often been given a highly-touted farm system and a top AL Central payroll. And yet, after last season's collapse, here we are again - a team that should certainly be better than what they are.

Managers matter. It's time to find a better one.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd like to add, Twins have, as far as I'm aware has had good team WAR. I'm not big on WAR but I do give some credence to fWAR. The Twins has been one of the top teams this season but has slipped to 6th place in fWAR, (IMO Twins put a lot of stock in WAR). That means we still have a pretty good team, so what's the problem? IMO it's how they are managed.

[gmwannabe]

I just hope he's smart enough to get the Twins catcher of the future, center fielder of the future, or shortstop of the future when he deals Pablo at the trade deadline. Let the trade speculation begin because this team isn't a playoff team. 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, PP24 said:

Rocco is not the problem. A different manager still has the same players and same front office philosophy. A new manager isn’t bringing Mays and Aaron with him.

Rocco is not THE problem.

He certainly is A problem.

Pretending he isn't one is among the organization's biggest problems.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What team would drop everything they’re doing to hire an executive whose team missed the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 seasons? 

Maybe one that hasn’t developed pitching  well ………….& is willing to spend some $$ on players with some consistency.

[Western SD Fan]

And Cleveland has had their secret weapon for years in developing pitching:  pitching coach Carl Willis vs our litany of pitching coaches over the years.

[ziggy]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Rocco is not THE problem.

He certainly is A problem.

Pretending he isn't one is among the organization's biggest problems.

Agree. But Jayce Tingler and Rocco are joined at the hip with every decision so it's a group effort.

The Twins are 9th in free agent spending since 2020. That's mid market spending, not small market IMO.  They just signed 2 guys that have spent a lot of time injured.

I see the hitting issue as a lack of adjusting to what the opposing pitchers are throwing to the hitters. They do not adjust. That is on the bench coaches. 

[TheLeviathan]

What I'm about to say is not an "ought" claim, merely an "is":

So long as this team is in sell mode, nothing significant will change.  Falvey will not lose his job.  If Rocco does lose his job he will be replaced in-house by someone who implements the same organizational philosophy.

There is no bold organizational change on the horizon in this atmosphere.  No resources will be provided.  The message the fans are sending will fall on deaf ears.  It's not the priority.  

The only thing we might get is a complete tear down in July to strip the payroll of any significant contracts.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Maybe one that hasn’t developed pitching  well ………….& is willing to spend some $$ on players with some consistency.

And they wouldn’t look at another organization that’s better than us doing that? 

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Like Farhan Zaidi because well respected FO execs of even failed teams still get jobs? Sure, that's a good enough example. 

Is a special advisor a “top guy” in the org? Terry Ryan was a special advisor for the Phillies too. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

And they wouldn’t look at another organization that’s better than us doing that? 

The question was, who would hire Falvey …… don’t understand your comments here. He’s developed pitching depth and the budget was reversed in ‘24 and this ‘25 by ownership. “Other organizations”?

[JD-TWINS]

Alcala was optioned March 30 & he has one more option to be used this year.

I do not like wasting bullets of Festa & Matthews in St Paul - between Alcala’s spot and/or pairing one of them with Paddack or SWR in a piggyback approach - worth getting Alcala right at AAA and getting some value from Festa or Matthews right now.

[Fezig]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This is why he won't shake up the roster with players in AAA - we won't sign FA, only DFA players.  We won't make big trades. Falvey has to see where this is going and observe the empty seats, the lack of tv audience, and the malaise that is only going to get worse.  Blaming Gleeman reminds me of the blame the press attitude in so many parts of our country.  Come on Falvey show some energy.

Could it be possible Gleeman is giving Rocco direction in the dugout? If that's the case. then yes, Gleeman deserves criticism. 

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Is a special advisor a “top guy” in the org? Terry Ryan was a special advisor for the Phillies too. 

I mean, I guess it depends on the organization and how they treat their titles. Teams have a lot of titles these days. If you want to get hung up on the "top guy" and the title aspect of things, be my guest. The point was that Falvey isn't going to be unemployed long. He's going to get hired by somebody else pretty quick. I'd guess an assistant GM title. You can rank that however you want in an org.

And have you seen how they talked about TR in Philly? Sure sounds like he was pretty high up over there, yes. "Terry’s involved in all the conversations we have now.” is a quote from Dave Dombrowski. That sounds like a "top guy" to me. But you can make your own decision on that.

[Riverbrian]

21 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

That’s the problem. This offense is perpetually without large swaths of what should be the starting lineup for long periods of time. As soon as someone comes back it isn’t more than a week that the next guy goes down and we play this game of “when so and so comes back the team will be better.” We wait for this magical point when everyone will be healthy that never seems to come. 

Injuries are no excuse.

This front office should be plenty practiced dealing with injury issues, 

With all of the injuries that the Twins have suffered over the years, through all the opportunity potentially provided to others by all these injuries,,, this front office should have somewhat capable pre-arb options coming out of their ears... yet we don't. 

Other teams are able to turn these opportunities into pre arb options. We turn them into opportunities for one year low priced vets to lead the club in plate appearances. 

You keep filling with low priced one year vets at the expense of making your own... there will be a bill to pay in the future.

Is that bill coming due? 

Maybe. 

Why does Carson McCusker have to wait behind a DFA? 

 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A little late to the party, but I think there are a lot of things that Falvey gets blamed for that can't accurately be put on him. Knowing what we know now, the Pohlads have been in sell-mode for the better part of 3 years. Falvey has had to operate within the limitations that have been placed upon him. I will be interested to see what happens if he is still around when the ownership changes. 

[mluebker]

On 5/4/2025 at 7:13 AM, howeda7 said:

The first important act of the new owner will be to fire Derek Favley. Hopefully the day after the season ends. 

Hopefully sooner.

[mluebker]

On 5/4/2025 at 7:17 AM, jmlease1 said:

But at the end of the day, players play. And they're the ones who simply haven't hit enough, have melted down in the bullpen, etc.

Most of them seem out of their depth—they simply don’t have the talent to do what’s being asked of them. And too many of the ones who do, can’t stay off the IL. It’s the front office and ownership that put this team together, so they’re the ones responsible, as far as I can see.

 

[Brandon]

On 5/4/2025 at 6:31 AM, Eris said:

Let’s start Sunday morning with some positives. The Twins won yesterday and Byron Buxton is tracking to play in 147 games this year. 
 

Half of the starting lineup has an OPS < 0.700. Neither Ty France nor Bader is the Twins problem. The offensive problems are Correa hitting near the Mendoza line. He is under contract for at least 3 more years. Lewis, Wallner and Keaschall are on the IL. I would like to think that that this team would be better if the latter 3 were in the lineup every day. 
 

Having many players on the IL seems to be an ongoing issue. 

Correa started in a slump.  He is 13 for his last 37.  He will be fine.  

THe issues with the lineup has been injuries (Wallner, Keaschall, and Lewis and Castro) slumps Correa to start the season and Julien, and Velazquez) and the bench has been atrocious.  Normally the bench is almost as good as the regulars but not this year.  Bader would be a great bench bat except he is full time right now, Castro has been hurt.  Gasper hasnt hit not has Velazquez, Keirsay hasnt hit,  Julien nope though he got stuck starting....  

Though there is hope on the horizon.  Lewis is back and moves Lee to 2B and Castro is also back.  If Correa continues to hit.... our offense could be better moving forward. We still need that one big bat that Wallner provides so hope he comes back soon.   

I did want to point out that Ty France is out hitting Santana who signed with Cleveland for 12 million vs the 1 million France got.  Our pitching has been good overall.  Paddack and Ober had 1 really bad start each that is skewing their numbers.  Jax has been bad and Steward has recently and Alcala seems to be pitching better too.  otherwise the staff has pitched pretty good.  

[twinstalker]

Derek, the problem is your drafting and development of hitting.  You apparently lucked into Keaschall, but it appears the "system" doesn't know what it's doing there.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Derek, the problem is your drafting and development of hitting.  You apparently lucked into Keaschall, but it appears the "system" doesn't know what it's doing there.

I see this a lot with the front office. If they have a success, it's luck. If they don't it's because they're stupid/incompetent/failures.

Brooks Lee is looking fine, Matt Wallner is an absolute success. Buxton developed just fine as a hitter; it's not the front office's fault he's had so many injuries. (Same applies to Royce Lewis) Jeffers is certainly a success.

They need more guys like that, but it's not like there aren't plenty of examples.

[DocBauer]

I'm late to this thread, but I'm compelled to offer up some thoughts:

1] I think Falvey's comments were open and honest, but perhaps have been taken out of context to a degree. Is he really saying; "I have no idea what's wrong and what's going on or how to fix it" as some want to read his comments? Or is he really making an abridged comment that really says; "I have no idea how we've been hit with TWO of our best players having a semi-major hamstring problem a couple weeks apart. And I can't fathom bad luck having a top prospect debut and spark the team only to have his arm broken on a pitch, sitting him down for 2 months. And MRI results say Correa's wrist isn't badly damaged, his feet at fine, he's great in the field, and he had a bit of a sore wrist problem last season when he was producing at a high level. Did it suddenly get worse even though the MRI doesn't show significant damage?"

To take his comments that he believes in his team and can't answer what's happened and to somehow indicate he's incompetent is vastly unfair IMO.

2] Falvey and his staff have built a system that NEVER existed in the history of the franchise to build up a pitching pipeline that has begun to build up succes, depth, and hope. KUDOS should be sent out to Johnson and his scouts, and those in charge of development. I do see a change in the draft to more position players who aren't just sluggers, but more speed and athleticism. Of course, you're still going to draft sluggers as well. You CAN'T nickel and dime runs to be successful.  You still NEED power. But there has been a shift over the last couple of drafts.

3] Falvey has brought in so many forward thinkers as instructors and coaches that he's had many poached by other teams. 

I am NOT an apologist for the FO. They've done some things i don't agree with. They continue to do some things I don't agree with. And I've stated my opinion on those matters many times. 

When ownership was actually raising payroll on a yearly basis pre-2024, the FO, lead by Falvey, were more aggressive and made moves to make a better team. They still had limitations, and not every move worked out, but they made trades and signed some solid FA and the team HAS had success in his tenure from the top down. And I'd really like to see what the newly shaped FO might be able to accomplish with an owner who cared more about the product on the field, instead of borrowing against the Twins value/income to satisfy their other endeavors. Perhaps Zoll would be a competent GM with some different and fresh ideas if he wasn't handcuffed. Maybe we'll find out???

Again, NOT an apologist. I still think ownership is the #1 issue with the team, restricting what the FO has been able to do the past 2 years. That doesn't mean I agree with everything the FO has done now, or in the past. But I do think taking a comment of belief and general frustration and trying to make Falvey look like an incompetent fool is grossly misguided due to fan frustration.

[USAFChief]

23 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Alcala was optioned March 30 & he has one more option to be used this year.

 

You're 0 for 2 on this post.