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Posted

Great article, Nick.  Too bad the subject is too bloody depressing.

I don't know what the future holds for the Pohlad's, Falvey, Rocco, or most of the Twins players.  I do know that the product on the field ain't working. 

My biggest question is whether or not Falvey has the "you know what's" to blow this up come July and trade some of the high paid stars who ain't getting it done.  Yes, I'm looking at you Mr. Correa and others.  Heck, it may even make sense to part with Paddack and Pablo.

Yes, most of the top prospects are a bit further away, injured or both.  Let's open some slots on the field come August and see what they have in guys like Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Festa, Matthews, ERod and others.  Hopefully, they bring in a few new top prospects to compete with this group.

My comment about whether or not Falvey has the ??? to blow this up assumes he is still with the Twins come the end of July.  Will he be?

Posted
1 hour ago, Eris said:

Let’s start Sunday morning with some positives. The Twins won yesterday and Byron Buxton is tracking to play in 147 games this year. 
 

Half of the starting lineup has an OPS < 0.700. Neither Ty France nor Bader is the Twins problem. The offensive problems are Correa hitting near the Mendoza line. He is under contract for at least 3 more years. Lewis, Wallner and Keaschall are on the IL. I would like to think that that this team would be better if the latter 3 were in the lineup every day. 
 

Having many players on the IL seems to be an ongoing issue. 

Eris, refreshing attitude ……. seem to be a logical person here!!

It’s not the fans job (at TD nor anywhere) to worry about how the GM or ownership is handling/addressing attendance. I don’t get the “hunt” for things to worry about or complain about? Roster construction - sure.

Castro - Wallner - Lewis - Keaschall are 4 of Top 7-9 offensive players, out of 13 position players. You can’t GM nor Manage your way around those circumstances. Eris is right, Bader & France are performing as well as or better than anyone expected - same GM signed them this past offseason. Can’t be accused of screwing everything up as GM and then have these two assumed to be lucky signings - right?

Pitching is fine. Alcala is an ongoing problem that should be addressed. Stewart seems to have lost his fastball edge and thus, effectiveness. Starters have been very consistent in keeping Team competitive.

1-2-3-1 runs in recent 4 game losing streak. I get it’s frustrating to have Gasper - Kiersey - Clemens on the 26 man but filling those spots with AAA guys is not sound if they aren’t shining in AAA. McCusker may deserve a look soon but nobody else is tearing it up…….for 12 months everyone wanted Kiersey to get a chance…… decent defense, OK to good base running, but can’t bunt at all & can’t hit at all……pretty sure if they had a better player to move him down they’d act on it - it’s in nobody’s interest to hide talent and lose games.

GM could have done better via trade of pitching for a bat in offseason! That’s over, let’s move on “…..& start Sunday with some positives.”

Posted
1 hour ago, Peter said:

You all have to remember we are a small town team playing against the big city teams!!! Every win is special as we aren’t supposed to win but we are!!! Once at health full health twins will start winning/get back over .500 and into division race!!!

We choose to be small city - the Pohlads want to sell the team for $1.7 billion.  Does that sound small?  The Pohlads are far from the The Ranker has Jim Pohlad #1`2 of 30 owners - 

Jim Pohlad

Team: Minnesota Twins

Net worth: $3.6 billion (source)

Inheriting the role after his father Carl's death in 2009, Jim Pohlad has been at the helm of the Minnesota Twins as chairman and part-owner. The Pohlad family, who made their fortune in banking and real estate, purchased the Twins in the 1980s. Under Jim's leadership, the franchise has thrived, achieving a valuation of $1.39 billion by 2023. In November 2022, he passed daily operations to his nephew Joe Pohlad, ensuring the team's future remains in family hands.

Media watch has us number 15 in media Markets out of 188 with teams in various sports. CBS says Milwaukee is the current smallest MLB market with an estimated metro population of 1.56 million.

 

Posted
23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

When Falvey was in Cleveland he was well known for his pitching "pipeline" and the team did well.  In Minnesota he is being lauded again for a pitching "pipeline" and the Twins suck.  What's the difference?  Cleveland had Terry Francona and the Twins have Rocco Baldwlli.

Cleveland has/had Jose Rameriz wreaking havoc on opposing pitchers - routinely! Happening for years.

Posted
2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Not wrong. Franchise really needs new ownership. The Pohlads have simply exhausted everyone. They're not the worst owners in MLB but they're not very good. They don't care enough about baseball, have mismanaged the business operations, and appear to be using the team as an asset to support their other businesses rather than one to be invested in and supported. They have no idea how to interact with the fanbase, let alone energize them, and there's literally no urgency associated with them. 

Blame for where the team current sits is a little complicated. Ownership deserves much blame for their miserly ways, inability to grow the franchise, and for reversing their small investment in payroll right at the moment where sustaining it would have had real impact. That also hamstrung the front office, who clearly built their roster construction strategies around sustaining that initial investment. I also blame ownership for not authorizing the minimal payroll increases we got this year until so late in the offseason, which left us dumpster-diving again.

Falvey deserves criticism; the one season where our OF depth utterly collapsed has clearly made them very risk-adverse about depth, and they're very deferential to veterans and seem to have minimal faith in their own development of young players.

But at the end of the day, players play. And they're the ones who simply haven't hit enough, have melted down in the bullpen, etc. Rocco will be the most likely scapegoat initially (easier to fire the manager than make wholesale changes to the roster), but the results of the last 2 years will probably doom Falvey as well with new ownership, even if Falvey has been hamstrung by the Pohlads and their poor ownership. And if we get good ownership, then it's not the end of the world.

Unfortunately, I think actually selling the club is going to be harder than we hoped. The fact that the Pohalds seem to want not just the top of the valuation for the a sale but also for the new ownership to take on the debt that they've piled on in the last 5+ seasons (and it's questionable how much of that is related to baseball operations) makes it a much less attractive and more expensive property. 

Dont forget the Pohlads also want to keep managing the team that they’ve mismanaged into a sharp decline 

LOL

some people’s kids…

Tantrum Crying GIF

Community Moderator
Posted
1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

It was a bit cathartic. You compared Falvey's Twins system to the success they had in Cleveland. They're not comparable. #4-5 pitchers grow on trees in the offseason.

Well I think calling Ober a 4 is ridiculous so your entire rant loses a lot of it's credibility right there. And a lot of it is a matter of opinion and guess work on the future of what Festa, Zebby, and the rest become. It took longer than it should have (in my opinion) to establish, but the results haven't all been tallied to make the declarations you're trying to make.

Bauer was mostly ok with Cleveland and didn't win a Cy Young until he openly started using "sticky stuff." He had a 4.32 combined ERA there his first 5 seasons. And they didn't get him as a minor leaguer, he'd already debuted for the Diamondbacks before he even got to Cleveland. But you left all of those details out of your rant because just putting "Cy Young" next to his name despite that it happened after he left Cleveland looks a whole lot better. Ryan and Ober haven't even gotten to the point of their career where Bauer got good yet.

Tanner Bibee gets a "future Cy Young?" next to his name? Why? Because he had a nice rookie year? He wasn't anything super special last year. If Ober is a #4 then so is Bibee because they're essentially the same guy. He's not super young or anything.

Kluber was never a top 100 prospect. So your assumption that none of the Twins current minor leaguers are going to do what he did doesn't carry any weight. He was a guy that came out of nowhere as a 4th round pick who debuted at the age of 25 and then had great success starting at the age of 27. 

Your rant is missing a whole lot of context so I'm glad it was cathartic because it wasn't all that accurate or meaningful when you actually dig into the details of the pitchers you named. Bauer, Ryan, and Ober listed in some order below. Their 2nd through 4th seasons since this is the start of Ryan and Ober's 5th season. See if you can pick out Bauer that was so much more dominant and "not comparable." 

image.png.7315e290f83a0816fd623e6e4e69d996.png

 

 

Posted

'Offense is the black hole right now led by a 35 million dollar player batting .217.  Correa will heat up.  The positional depth is probably thinner than we'd like but everyone knows our constraints.  Jouliens and Miranda's need to step up for this to work and they haven't.   We're going to keep at it because our pitching keeps us in a lot of games.'  

I think that's all Falvey would need to say

Verified Member
Posted

Often in professional sports things don't go as planned. These unexpected results are generally the product of poor choices as compared to the competition. Pro sports are almost totally outcome driven - that is the harsh reality.

The Twins are failing - there is no way around that fact. Falvey and Rocco have had ample time to get things right -  the choppy, inconsistencies we can see for ourselves demonstrate that hasn't happened based on any reasonable MLB standard. Like most leaders in pro sports I am confident they have given this their absolute best shot!

But their best simply hasn't been good enough, 

Community Moderator
Posted
1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

What team would drop everything they’re doing to hire an executive whose team missed the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 seasons? 

As I said in a comment later in the thread, it may not be another POBO job. The Twins are constantly voted one of the 8-15 best front offices in baseball in surveys of executives year after year. Falvey is well respected amongst his peers. He's not going to be unemployed long. He'll be one of the top guys in another front office real quick.

Verified Member
Posted

if the Twins let Falvey go there would be a rush to hire him.  What a huge mistake that would be.  The Twins need to hire a defensive and offensive guru to assist him in developing the franchise.  To many guys are coming through the system and looking like future stars only to fizzle out once they reach the bigs (Julien, Miranda, Larnach, Lee is showing signs of reverting, Lewis had a terrible second half last year) The Twins need someone that keep these guys on track.  

Posted
9 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

'Offense is the black hole right now led by a 35 million dollar player batting .217.  Correa will heat up.  The positional depth is probably thinner than we'd like but everyone knows our constraints.  Jouliens and Miranda's need to step up for this to work and they haven't.   We're going to keep at it because our pitching keeps us in a lot of games.'  

I think that's all Falvey would need to say

I doubt anyone would be satisfied with relying on Julien and/or Miranda.  Now, had he said Correa will get going and we are really missing Wallner and Lewis.  That would satisfy some of the critics but others will still expect the offense to be humming with arguably their 2 best hitters out and another in a slump to start the season.  Perhaps he should had said he believes there is good reason to believe Correa will be better and we should be a lot better when Lewis, Wallner, and Keaschall are back.  

Posted
6 minutes ago, Rufus said:

if the Twins let Falvey go there would be a rush to hire him.  What a huge mistake that would be.  The Twins need to hire a defensive and offensive guru to assist him in developing the franchise.  To many guys are coming through the system and looking like future stars only to fizzle out once they reach the bigs (Julien, Miranda, Larnach, Lee is showing signs of reverting, Lewis had a terrible second half last year) The Twins need someone that keep these guys on track.  

Who do you think has the responsibility to hire these additions.  It's Falvey of course and he hasn't done it yet so what makes you think it will happen in the future.  They made Levine a scapegoat for the front office at the end of last season and still didn't make any significant moves in the offseason.  Let's see what France and Bader do over the course of a whole season not one month before they are considered a success.  Falvey needs to go because they need a fresh review of the whole organization and that won't happen until he is gone which won't happen unless we get new ownership.

Posted

Nick, thank you for putting this article out there. For the last two plus years, it has been clear to me, Falvey is in over his head. Roster construction and a vision of what ideally makes for a team that might compete at the highest levels are simply out of his realm. His preferred style of play does not create excitement for the paying public. Waiting for the bats and big innings is a difficult process.

This is the first article I have seen that points to Falvey as opposed to the many dozens of articles blaming the Pohlads. Despite having never been a fan of the Pohlads ownership going back to 1984, I fail to see much involvement by the owners in player acquisitions and roster management. The Twins have spent more money than all of the divisional rivals since Falvey arrived. This doesn't completely erase a reticence to add a couple of players during a few stretch drives. However, the Ryan years were marked by more pinched budgets, especially in comparison to their AL Central foes. While I'm not ready to mark the end of the Kepler/Polanco run as a cause of the current malaise, it does seem like karma has left a mark.

The current team was expected to win 84/85 games. I predicted 83 with a ceiling of 88 victories if everything went extremely well. I'm not actually moving off of that prediction yet but the type of baseball played by this current regime makes the product hard to watch. A .500 record seems like their goal.

A team that fields 4-5 players on a daily basis whose skills are best suited for DH needs to average close to six runs per game. The manager is getting good starting pitching but the innings are more stressful in low scoring games which results in removing the starter earlier due to the higher load of tough innings/pitches. In turn, the bullpen is required to use 3-4 persons per game which is not sustainable. Pitching with the cloud of a poor defense behind you and no run support can be wearing on anyone.

Lastly, the inability to complete any meaningful trades in the last few years, particularly at the close of the 2023 season, raises questions of how other teams view both Falvey and the players within the Twins system. I'm afraid the Twins are between a rock and a hard place until their ownership and management people have left the organization. If the Pohlads cannot sell they need someone to counsel them on change.

Posted
3 hours ago, Peter said:

You all have to remember we are a small town team playing against the big city teams!!! Every win is special as we aren’t supposed to win but we are!!! Once at health full health twins will start winning/get back over .500 and into division race!!!

Looks like Peter's optimism is back!

Old-Timey Member
Posted
2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Pardon me if I'm not on the one back end starter developed in the past 8 years is a real accomplishment train.

Bailey Ober, a #4 starter looking out over the precipice of sustainability. End of the story. That's all the established rotation success the front office has in draft/development across Falvey's entire tenure.

SWR? We traded the best pitcher drafted/developed by the Twins since Brad Radke to get him, but SWR was already in AA 4 years ago. Joe Ryan? We got him MLB-ready. The only ace caliber pitcher we've had is Sonny Gray, who we acquired for our #1 draft pick, and then we let walk after winning our first playoff game in 20 years.

Want to compare to Cleveland and what they put into the rotation? Trevor Bauer (Cy Young). Shane Bieber (Cy Young), Corey Kluber (2x Cy Young), Tanner Bibee (future Cy?). Now, Cleveland didn't draft/develop all these guys, but they all got established in Cleveland. Okay, Joe Ryan dark horse Cy Young can be compared here, then. Yeah, that Joe Ryan with his 3.1 fWAR career high. About 1/2 what a Cy Young winner actually produces.

Festa? Yeah, he looks like he might pan out as a back end guy. Matthews? He got clobbered in his only MLB experience and he's getting smoked again in AAA. Matthews has okay stuff, and the velo helps his stuff play up. Sounds an awful lot like Louis Varland, eh?

It's great to look at starting pitching prospects and exclaim how amazing they're going to be in a year or two. It's tradition here at TD. All the Twins mediocre ceiling starters are a guaranteed Cy Young waiting to happen.
Jhoan Duran <-- bullpen
Brusdar Graterol <-- bullpen, traded
Cade Povich <-- traded
Chase Petty <-- traded
Tyler Wells <-- lost in rule 5, probably bullpen
Kohl Stewart <-- washed out
Landon Leach <-- washed out
Josh Winder <-- washed out
Jordan Balazovic <-- washed out
Stephen Gonsalves <-- washed out
Lewis Thorpe <-- washed out
Fernando Romero <-- washed out
Tyler Jay <-- washed out
Chris Vallimont <-- washed out
Blayne Enlow <-- washed out

Matt Canterino <--- This guy is a perfect example. He's got 30 innings at AA like 4 years ago where he walked 6 batters per 9 innings, and the fans are still hung up on him.

Cue the next group of guaranteed studs (chance of being an MLB starter) depth like Morris (5%), Lewis (1%), Culpepper (5%), Raya (1%), Adams (0%).

Then, harder to quantify/further away we have Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, and Connor Prielipp. Living the dream down there of future Cy Youngs in the making. Just like every other MLB team fan base, except those fan bases have probably all been more successful than the Twins, who were better at drafting/developing pitching under Terry Ryan than Derek Falvey.

The higher the fewer.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

As I said in a comment later in the thread, it may not be another POBO job. The Twins are constantly voted one of the 8-15 best front offices in baseball in surveys of executives year after year. Falvey is well respected amongst his peers. He's not going to be unemployed long. He'll be one of the top guys in another front office real quick.

The same was said of Thad Levine.

 

Posted

If anything, I think the Pohlads have been too hands-off.

The conservative era of gentleman’s baseball under Terry Ryan had stopped working, and now the Derek Falvey application of StatCast baseball has clearly stopped working. It looks like the media is finally coming around, but it’s a few years too late, in my opinion. (off topic, but i can point you to an exact date…)

I still have a ton of faith in this organization and the guys who work out of the limelight to get this organization turned around again. Think Mike Radcliff, who passed away in 2023. Or think of higher public profile guys like Paul Molitor and Dan Gladden who are still very involved and can spot winners. 

Community Moderator
Posted
14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The same was said of Thad Levine.

 

Not by me because I still don't really have a good guess at what's going on with him and what his professional goals were then or are now. 

And a bunch of people claimed Popkins wasn't qualified to be an MLB hitting coach and would never get hired by another MLB team yet he was unemployed for a whopping 20 days before Toronto hired him.

Verified Member
Posted

I apologize...I read the headline and started laughing. That's all I'm going to say. 

Posted
54 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

A team that fields 4-5 players on a daily basis whose skills are best suited for DH needs to average close to six runs per game.

I respect this. Although I know you include Royce Lewis in this group of full time designated hitters, I do not.

I think the team has an obligation to play Lewis at his drafted position and give him some run. If he plays well (enough) at third or short, and proves you wrong, all the better. If he plays subpar for too long, like Julien, then at least the rest of us fans can arrive at a consensus.

A first overall pick with the “it” factor that Royce Lewis has, deserves as much.

Posted
3 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

"Rocco and the staff keep showing up ... That's what I'm focused on"

Without context (I'm not scaling that paywall), this doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement.

It also invites troubling parallels between the manager and the great Brick Tamland: "People seem to like me because I'm polite and I'm rarely late."  The standard is the standard!

What struck me as totally mind boggling is Falvey says he still has a tone of belief in the guys in that locker room, essentially the same team that has gone 26-47 last year til now. So tired of his excuse making, stonewalling and cluelessness. At least this year after a typically rotten offseason, he’s promoted Keaschall and acquired Bride and Clemens. He’s had this team 8 years and here we are losing record save one season where he actually tried in the offseason 2018-2019.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I respect this. Although I know you include Royce Lewis in this group of full time designated hitters, I do not.

I think the team has an obligation to play Lewis at his drafted position and give him some run. If he plays well (enough) at third or short, and proves you wrong, all the better. If he plays subpar for too long, like Julien, then at least the rest of us fans can arrive at a consensus.

A first overall pick with the “it” factor that Royce Lewis has, deserves as much.

The pick of Royce Lewis at #1-1 - I was totally on board. He began as a pretty athletic player in the minor leagues and nobody is going to forget the string of grand slams. However, whether it is because of injuries or a bulked up physique, Royce is not the flexible, swift player who signed in 2017. If you have been watching him play for the St. Paul Saints, he mostly looks overmatched at the plate, stiff in the field, and not running anywhere close to full speed. Yes, I thought he would be a good first baseman and I'm still holding out hope Lewis can return to the team and be a consistently sound player for the Twins at any position. Currently, Lewis looks like baseball might be a challenge for him. I hope he figures it out. The Twins and their fans could use a strong Lewis.

A couple of people have referenced injuries as a point of the Twins current situation. Other teams have also suffered similar numbers or worse losses. Take a look at how the Detroit Tigers are currently playing and consider the loss of 6 pitchers, the starting catcher, 2 starting outfielders, and 2 reserves. By comparison the Twins have been much healthier.

Posted
10 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

The pick of Royce Lewis at #1-1 - I was totally on board. He began as a pretty athletic player in the minor leagues and nobody is going to forget the string of grand slams. However, whether it is because of injuries or a bulked up physique, Royce is not the flexible, swift player who signed in 2017. If you have been watching him play for the St. Paul Saints, he mostly looks overmatched at the plate, stiff in the field, and not running anywhere close to full speed. Yes, I thought he would be a good first baseman and I'm still holding out hope Lewis can return to the team and be a consistently sound player for the Twins at any position. Currently, Lewis looks like baseball might be a challenge for him. I hope he figures it out. The Twins and their fans could use a strong Lewis.

A couple of people have referenced injuries as a point of the Twins current situation. Other teams have also suffered similar numbers or worse losses. Take a look at how the Detroit Tigers are currently playing and consider the loss of 6 pitchers, the starting catcher, 2 starting outfielders, and 2 reserves. By comparison the Twins have been much healthier.

The “Royce Lewis problem” is a problem of the Twins’ own making.

Detroit is 8-4 since moving Javy Baez to center field. Baez is 12-34 since then and has homered in three straight games. (Small sample.) Talk about trying something new and hitting on it!

Posted
11 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The “Royce Lewis problem” is a problem of the Twins’ own making.

Detroit is 8-4 since moving Javy Baez to center field. Baez is 12-34 since then and has homered in three straight games. (Small sample.) Talk about trying something new and hitting on it!

Not sure I understand how your response is related to mine. How did the Twins mess up Lewis? He is looking rough again in today's game. Sure hope he can come around. Lewis needs another week or so at AAA.

Javy is a really good athlete and the injuries gave him another shot. Hinch seems to get quite a bit out of his players. 

Posted

Falvey was hired to get the pitching pipeline going & the pipeline is finally starting to flow. But everything else he has failed miserably. There is so much to criticize, I'm going to generalize.

I'm all for analytics, but if player evaluations and baseball philosophies are way off, analytics can't help you. Those weird analytics are focused on & the important fundamentals are ignored. We are a mid-market team; to be competitive, we need to draft & develop our own players & trade for promising young players to cover any holes. We aren't doing that. Many times they place players in positions where they think their bats play, but not their gloves plus have biases. Then the Twins' defense suffers a lot. They also like to place players where they don't belong. Some can fake it, if their bat plays, but others can't mentally or physically handle it & they flounder, aren't developed to the max & fizzle out, wasting their potential..

Falvey has great difficulty zeroing in on needs, initiating & finalizing trades, which is key to mid-market teams to succeed. Part of it is not having the ability & the other is that he loves to hoard all his prospects even if they are redundant. Therefore, he tries to become a poor man, NYY, we can't compete with them in FA (it's ridiculous to try) so we are a much inferior team. If you don't develop your own players, can't trade for them & can't compete in FA then we are lost.

IMO, a leader must take responsibility for any shortcomings. What gets to me the most about Falvey is that he doesn't own up to anything. It's always the trainers or batting coaches or cheap owners; next will be the core & will be quick to dismantle it to save face. 

What made the '87 & '91 Twins so good was the core & the FO keeping them together. After our '23 success, Falvey began to tinker with the core. (My greatest enjoyment this spring is following Polanco). Tinkering with the core & not raising up deserving in-house players IMO affects chemistry, fire & morale among the ranks (IMO,that's why we have so little of it). IMO. the core doesn't need to go, it's Falvey & Co. We have wasted enough time, its should have been done last offseason. But I think nothing will help until after this season is over then bring back MacPhail & let him clean house. 

Posted

A new manager might not run the stupid contact play into rally killing out after rally killing out. He/she might not play the infield in all the doggone time, giving up extra runs like early in today’s Boston game.  He might not leave in struggling starters to give up 8-10 runs, thus giving up games that might have been salvaged and take out pitchers who have 7 IP 2 only to have the bullpen blow it. 

 

I think they may well start winning more games with an experienced baseball man. Could they have had Francona this last offseason?

 

Posted

Lewis is relevant to this conversation to the extent that the front office has no idea what to do with him.

You and I can agree on a lot, but we won’t agree on Royce Lewis. 

19 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Lewis needs another week or so at AAA.

I would have Lewis in the Twins lineup starting at shortstop against the Orioles Tuesday night. 

So let’s say the Twins lose, Lewis looks a little sluggish in the field, and goes 0-4 at the plate, with some missed chances to knock some runs in? Pat him on the back and say “get ‘em tomorrow”

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