Cardinals 9, Twins 2: Bailey Ober Really Hates Missouri in March

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins' miserable start continued Sunday, as the offense stayed cold against Andre Pallante and the Cardinals. Bailey Ober was obliterated, and the only positives were another strong day for Willi Castro and some fine relief work from Randy Dobnak, who entered for Ober in the third and finished the game.

Image courtesy of © Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 2 2/3 IP 8 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (77 Pitches, 44 Strikes, 57.1%)
Home Runs: Willi Castro (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.439), Trevor Larnach (-.079), Ryan Jeffers (-.042)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

After a couple of uninspiring games against the supposedly rebuilding Cardinals, the Twins wrapped up their series in St. Louis against the sneakily effective Andre Pallante. An extreme ground-ball pitcher, Pallante posted a sub-4.00 ERA last year in his first year as a starter over 120 innings. He also dominated the Twins last August at Target Field, throwing seven innings of one-run ball. He was pretty good again today.

He got ahead of leadoff man Matt Wallner 0-2, before Wallner battled back to draw a walk. Carlos Correa tapped to short to advance Wallner, and Byron Buxton blooped a jam-shot single to score the game's first run (the Twins' first lead of the year).

On the mound for the Twins was Bailey Ober—who, outside of a few notable blow-ups, performed as one of the better pitchers in the American League, and even has a little dark-horse Cy Young steam heading into 2025. He didn't look like that in his first start last year, and today was (in some ways) even worse.

He began by walking newly-assigned Twins assassin Lars Nootbar. Willson Contreras then lined out sharply (109 MPH) to Harrison Bader in left field, and Brendan Donovan walked on a close pitch. A wild pitch advanced the runners, but Ober managed to strike out the red-hot Nolan Arenado and induced Alec Burleson to pop out to end the threat. It took 28 pitches, but Ober was squeezed on a couple of calls and held his composure.

That wasn't the case in the second. Nolan Gorman rifled a single to right, backup catcher Pedro Pages jumped all over a hanging slider and laced a ground-rule double right off the chalk line in left field. Victor Scott II, who has been lethal in the field against the Twins thus far, attacked the first fastball he saw and launched a three-run home run to flip the game on its head.

Scott posted a 40 OPS+ last season, indicating he was a 60% worse than an average hitter. However, he hit a game-tying home run against Zebby Matthews in the game now known for Edouard Julien making two misplays in the ninth to lose the series. In retrospect, that was a pretty big loss- the Twins had just come off their road trip to Texas (ending with the Jorge Alcala blow-up game) and San Diego. No one could have been sure the team was cursed yet at that point, but losing a series to the non-contending Cardinals at home was, perhaps, the first sign that something was terribly wrong. And Victor Scott II played a big part in that.

Anyway, Scott now has three career home runs.

Meanwhile, Pallante was starting to cruise, retiring six consecutive Twins batters on ground-outs. Wallner put an end to that by crushing a fastball (107 MPH) off the wall in right-center field. Correa then drew a walk, but Buxton struck out on a pitch in the dirt and Trevor Larnach grounded out to end whatever threat there was.

And then Ober truly fell apart. The Cardinals started taking vicious hacks, the home plate umpire gave Ober nothing on the edges, and the first five Cardinals reached, culminating in a three-run homer run from Pages, the glove-first catcher subbing for the bat-first Ivan Herrera. That shot made it 8-1 Cardinals. The ambush was reminiscent of the Royals in Ober's first start of 2024. Maybe keep him out of Missouri for the first one next time.

The velocity sat 90-91 but the main issue was his command. For every fastball he placed at the top of the zone in 2024, it sat thigh-high most of the time today, and his off-speed stuff wasn't sharp enough to keep hitters honest. He was done after recording eight outs.

The Twins continued to top Pallante's pitches into the ground, although Willi Castro was able to get ahold of a hanging curveball (Pallante did not command that pitch well for much of the day) for his first home run of the year.

Randy Dobnak made his 2025 debut, delivering five and a third innings of one run ball. That was interrupted by a 58 minute rain delay, but Dobnak kept the ball out of the middle of the zone and threw strikes for the most part, despite the layoff.

The Twins were then presented with what figures to be the biggest weakness for their hitting group, a bulk left-handed pitcher. Steven Matz came out following the rain delay and carved up the Twins lineup. Matz has had flashes of success around myriad injuries in his career, but a team that is functional against lefties should have been able to make him sweat a bit, at the least.

Castro laced an extra base hit against Matz in the seventh, for what it's worth. He, and to a lesser extent Larnach, have been the only bright spots for a lineup that so far looks pretty similar to the end of 2024.

 

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
Performing
Contributing
Low Impact/Slumping
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers	Christian Vazquez
1B	Ty France
2B	Mickey Gasper	Brooks Lee	Edouard Julien
3B	Royce Lewis	Jose Miranda
SS	Carlos Correa
LF	Trevor Larnach
CF	Byron Buxton ?	Harrison Bader	DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
RF	Matt Wallner
UTIL	Willi Castro ?
SP1	Pablo Lopez	Bailey Ober ?	Joe Ryan
SP2	Chris Paddack	Simeon Woods Richardson
CR	Jhoan Duran ?	Griffin Jax
SR	Brock Stewart	Louis Varland	Cole Sands
MR	Danny Coulombe	Justin Topa	Michael Tonkin
LR	Randy Dobnak	Jorge Alcala ?

 

What’s Next: Chris Paddack (5-3, 4.99 ERA in 2024) faces off against old friend Martin Perez (5-6, 4.53 ERA in 2024) as the Twins look to get off the mat against the historically bad White Sox. The Sox have actually won a game in 2025- granted it was against the one team that rivals them in terms of organizational messiness, the Angels. Paddack was trending upwards in Spring Training, but no conclusions should be drawn from a start against the White Sox outside his ability to maintain velocity throughout the start.
Perez has settled in as a mid-rotation option for teams that don't plan to contend. He is a lefty though, so it will be another test to see what Baldelli cooks up as a counter.

Postgame Interviews:
 

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Dobnak	0	0	0	0	0	79	79
Varland	0	0	12	0	23	0	35
Topa	0	0	17	0	8	0	25
Durán	0	0	0	0	24	0	24
Jax	0	0	21	0	0	0	21
Coulombe	0	0	0	0	16	0	16
Sands	0	0	14	0	0	0	14
Alcalá	0	0	0	0	12	0	12

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[Peter]

Not good at all! After 3 games it’s officially panic time!!! Need sweep/series win against white sox!!!

[Althebum82]

Horribly ugly game.  Almost as ugly series overall.  Decision on choice for the 26th roster spot......well, whodathunkit, but so far it is looking like a good move.....

[jkcarew]

If the club plans on being down 7 or 8 runs by the 3rd inning frequently, Dobnak was 100% the right decision. Gotta give credit where credit is due. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ober’s velo was down, and even if at times it seemed he got squeezed a bit, his command was poor. That was not the 2024 Ober I saw today. Curious if he either isn’t built up enough or is fighting something.

Plus, this lineup feels lifeless. Castro and Larnach both seem to have solid at bats. France has hit the ball hard in this series but a lot of balls hit at guys. Otherwise they are really missing a GUY. Nelson Cruz 2019 or 2023 Lewis helped this offense work. I would not be hesitant to add Keaschall and Rodriguez as soon as possible to inject life. I’m not saying by tomorrows game, but I don’t know how this lineup survives as currently constructed if they truly want Keaschall and Rodriguez to be in aaa for 2 whole months. Both would bring more life than a few options currently on the roster 

[silverslugger]

And it's snowing in the two States north of Missouri.  Let's all just go back to bed and pretend that the 2025 MLB season didn't start in March, sheeesh!

[thelanges5]

This is from Dan Hayes and explains the performance. But why even make the guy start?

 

[TheLeviathan]

Never has the team's play on the field so closely aligned with my feelings on ownership.

[Parfigliano]

Dobnak did his job.  The rest did not.

[pete rukavina]

And the Cardinals are not [predicted to be] good.

[Danchat]

12 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

This is from Dan Hayes and explains the performance. But why even make the guy start?

 

If true, seems like malpractice... all it would have taken is to bump Ober down the order and have Dobnak or an emergency option from AAA pitch the game. Ugh.

[LastOnePicked]

38 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

This is from Dan Hayes and explains the performance. But why even make the guy start?

Must be contagious. After the first series most Twins fans are feeling sick to their stomachs too.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just a couple of thoughts:

1. Why start Ober if he were ailing? Maybe it’s just too hard for Rocco to adjust his mindset.

2. What was up with Provus on Castro’s home run call? It made the score 8-2 and he made it sound like the Twins just walked off the World Series. It was embarrassing.  On the other hand, maybe he was just showing some heart.

3. Dobnak - gritty outing, doing just what he’s supposed to do.  Other than Castro and maybe Larnach, can any other Twin make that claim after this series?

4. This team needs leadership and it should come from Correa and Buxton. They’ll show up. Eventually. Maybe.

5. Actually this next series is important. Hate to show up for the home opener series 0-6. Minnesota sports fans, especially Twins fans, are renowned front runners. They jump on and off the bandwagon very quickly.

6. Have we fired Rocco yet?  Outclassed in every element of the game this series, including heart.

7. Morneau talking about how Contreras’ hitting woes could be partly due to changing positions was interesting. Aah, what does he know - that can’t be?   Changing positions all the time is a core plank of the Rocco strategy  

[thelanges5]

45 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Dobnak did his job.  The rest did not.

And this is his reward ⚾️

 

[Aggies7]

Tear down and start over. Whatever the plan is hasn’t worked in years. None of the games were ever really in doubt. How sad is that?

[USAFChief]

59 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

This is from Dan Hayes and explains the performance. But why even make the guy start?

 

Seems kind of odd to have him start. Paddack last pitched Tuesday and would have been on normal rest. Woods Richardson hasn't pitched since I don't know when. 

 

I guess it's like the scheduled days off thing. Whatta ya gonna do?  Impossible to adjust. These things just happen, eh Rocco?

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

And this is his reward ⚾️

 

Predictable. He'll clear waivers and be back in St Paul soon enough. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

And this is his reward ⚾️

 

A display of zero appreciation. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I was completely tied up doing other things today and just now saw the score. Lucky me that I had other things to do.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am thinking it is not fun for these guys to come to the clubhouse. They are already dragging. It showed in the final few innings I saw of the opener, and in some of Rocco’s comments about spring training, This regime has always seen its players as statistical profiles assigned a uniform number, and it finally caught up to them late last summer. Simulation models do not run collapses like that last season, but human beings do. 

[Parfigliano]

17 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

And this is his reward ⚾️

 

They will regret it

[Aggies7]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Seems kind of odd to have him start. Paddack last pitched Tuesday and would have been on normal rest. Woods Richardson hasn't pitched since I don't know when. 

 

I guess it's like the scheduled days off thing. Whatta ya gonna do?  Impossible to adjust. These things just happen, eh Rocco?

Always an excuse isn’t there? Beyond tiring to constantly hear it. Was the entire team sick since Thursday?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I have no opinion on whether Ober should have pitched sick today, or been bumped back a few days.

Cleveland scratched Tanner Bibee from their opener, and Bibee came back 3 days later today to pitch 5.2 scoreless innings. But then you also hear about those stories of guys who pitch great while sick (or hung over).

So who knows, 

[PDX Twin]

Quote

This team needs leadership and it should come from Correa and Buxton. They’ll show up. Eventually. Maybe.

They'll be there to pick up their obscene paychecks.

I haven't been paying close attention to games, but when I've been actively watching, there seems to be absolutely zero energy or enthusiasm in any player. It looks like they are "mailing it in" and playing out the string like it's end-of-season, out-on-contention garbage time instead of the first week, when you set the tone for the season. 

Maybe it's time for some phantom injuries and callups for the prospects. Honestly, they can't do worse than what we are seeing and should add some energy.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This is just one series. 3 games. It happens. But if they lose the series to the CWS we'll know we have some major problems.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Props to Dobber. The man did his job. No one else did.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

They'll be there to pick up their obscene paychecks.

I haven't been paying close attention to games, but when I've been actively watching, there seems to be absolutely zero energy or enthusiasm in any player. It looks like they are "mailing it in" and playing out the string like it's end-of-season, out-on-contention garbage time instead of the first week, when you set the tone for the season. 

Maybe it's time for some phantom injuries and callups for the prospects. Honestly, they can't do worse than what we are seeing and should add some energy.

As I posted after yesterdays game, aside from 6-7 weeks at the end of 2023 this team has lacked having a personality for 4 full seasons now. Very lifeless and listless team. This is very much a problem. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

22 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I am thinking it is not fun for these guys to come to the clubhouse. They are already dragging. It showed in the final few innings I saw of the opener, and in some of Rocco’s comments about spring training, This regime has always seen its players as statistical profiles assigned a uniform number, and it finally caught up to them late last summer. Simulation models do not run collapses like that last season, but human beings do. 

They look lifeless out there. Would have gone with Austin Martin over Gasper and I would have given Kiersey some ABs this series. This team desperately needs some energy and excitement. It is more often found with young players than it is retreads or guys that have been here a while and are way too comfortable.

[jud6312]

After this weekend I think I'll wait a while before turning my free trial to Twins TV to a paid subscription. 

 

What a lifeless series. Very disappointing.

[ashbury]

39 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Tear down and start over. Whatever the plan is hasn’t worked in years. None of the games were ever really in doubt. How sad is that?

If there's a teardown it needs to be with a new front office.  If a new one comes anyway with new ownership, I would not saddle them with the old regime's decision.  Come on Pohlads, quit fighting for the last dollar and sell to the current high bidder.