Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 2 2/3 IP 8 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (77 Pitches, 44 Strikes, 57.1%)
Home Runs: Willi Castro (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.439), Trevor Larnach (-.079), Ryan Jeffers (-.042)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
After a couple of uninspiring games against the supposedly rebuilding Cardinals, the Twins wrapped up their series in St. Louis against the sneakily effective Andre Pallante. An extreme ground-ball pitcher, Pallante posted a sub-4.00 ERA last year in his first year as a starter over 120 innings. He also dominated the Twins last August at Target Field, throwing seven innings of one-run ball. He was pretty good again today.
He got ahead of leadoff man Matt Wallner 0-2, before Wallner battled back to draw a walk. Carlos Correa tapped to short to advance Wallner, and Byron Buxton blooped a jam-shot single to score the game's first run (the Twins' first lead of the year).
On the mound for the Twins was Bailey Ober—who, outside of a few notable blow-ups, performed as one of the better pitchers in the American League, and even has a little dark-horse Cy Young steam heading into 2025. He didn't look like that in his first start last year, and today was (in some ways) even worse.
He began by walking newly-assigned Twins assassin Lars Nootbar. Willson Contreras then lined out sharply (109 MPH) to Harrison Bader in left field, and Brendan Donovan walked on a close pitch. A wild pitch advanced the runners, but Ober managed to strike out the red-hot Nolan Arenado and induced Alec Burleson to pop out to end the threat. It took 28 pitches, but Ober was squeezed on a couple of calls and held his composure.
That wasn't the case in the second. Nolan Gorman rifled a single to right, backup catcher Pedro Pages jumped all over a hanging slider and laced a ground-rule double right off the chalk line in left field. Victor Scott II, who has been lethal in the field against the Twins thus far, attacked the first fastball he saw and launched a three-run home run to flip the game on its head.
Scott posted a 40 OPS+ last season, indicating he was a 60% worse than an average hitter. However, he hit a game-tying home run against Zebby Matthews in the game now known for Edouard Julien making two misplays in the ninth to lose the series. In retrospect, that was a pretty big loss- the Twins had just come off their road trip to Texas (ending with the Jorge Alcala blow-up game) and San Diego. No one could have been sure the team was cursed yet at that point, but losing a series to the non-contending Cardinals at home was, perhaps, the first sign that something was terribly wrong. And Victor Scott II played a big part in that.
Anyway, Scott now has three career home runs.
Meanwhile, Pallante was starting to cruise, retiring six consecutive Twins batters on ground-outs. Wallner put an end to that by crushing a fastball (107 MPH) off the wall in right-center field. Correa then drew a walk, but Buxton struck out on a pitch in the dirt and Trevor Larnach grounded out to end whatever threat there was.
And then Ober truly fell apart. The Cardinals started taking vicious hacks, the home plate umpire gave Ober nothing on the edges, and the first five Cardinals reached, culminating in a three-run homer run from Pages, the glove-first catcher subbing for the bat-first Ivan Herrera. That shot made it 8-1 Cardinals. The ambush was reminiscent of the Royals in Ober's first start of 2024. Maybe keep him out of Missouri for the first one next time.
The velocity sat 90-91 but the main issue was his command. For every fastball he placed at the top of the zone in 2024, it sat thigh-high most of the time today, and his off-speed stuff wasn't sharp enough to keep hitters honest. He was done after recording eight outs.
The Twins continued to top Pallante's pitches into the ground, although Willi Castro was able to get ahold of a hanging curveball (Pallante did not command that pitch well for much of the day) for his first home run of the year.
Randy Dobnak made his 2025 debut, delivering five and a third innings of one run ball. That was interrupted by a 58 minute rain delay, but Dobnak kept the ball out of the middle of the zone and threw strikes for the most part, despite the layoff.
The Twins were then presented with what figures to be the biggest weakness for their hitting group, a bulk left-handed pitcher. Steven Matz came out following the rain delay and carved up the Twins lineup. Matz has had flashes of success around myriad injuries in his career, but a team that is functional against lefties should have been able to make him sweat a bit, at the least.
Castro laced an extra base hit against Matz in the seventh, for what it's worth. He, and to a lesser extent Larnach, have been the only bright spots for a lineup that so far looks pretty similar to the end of 2024.
Trends:
| Healthy | Hurt | ||
| Performing | |||
| Contributing | |||
|
Low Impact/Slumping
|
|||
| IL/Minors | |||
| C | Ryan Jeffers | Christian Vazquez | |
| 1B | Ty France | ||
| 2B | Mickey Gasper | Brooks Lee | Edouard Julien |
| 3B | Royce Lewis | Jose Miranda | |
| SS | Carlos Correa | ||
| LF | Trevor Larnach | ||
| CF | Byron Buxton ? | Harrison Bader | DaShawn Keirsey Jr. |
| RF | Matt Wallner | ||
| UTIL | Willi Castro ? | ||
| SP1 | Pablo Lopez | Bailey Ober ? | Joe Ryan |
| SP2 | Chris Paddack | Simeon Woods Richardson | |
| CR | Jhoan Duran ? | Griffin Jax | |
| SR | Brock Stewart | Louis Varland | Cole Sands |
| MR | Danny Coulombe | Justin Topa | Michael Tonkin |
| LR | Randy Dobnak | Jorge Alcala ? |
What’s Next: Chris Paddack (5-3, 4.99 ERA in 2024) faces off against old friend Martin Perez (5-6, 4.53 ERA in 2024) as the Twins look to get off the mat against the historically bad White Sox. The Sox have actually won a game in 2025- granted it was against the one team that rivals them in terms of organizational messiness, the Angels. Paddack was trending upwards in Spring Training, but no conclusions should be drawn from a start against the White Sox outside his ability to maintain velocity throughout the start.
Perez has settled in as a mid-rotation option for teams that don't plan to contend. He is a lefty though, so it will be another test to see what Baldelli cooks up as a counter.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| TUE | WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Dobnak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 79 |
| Varland | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 35 |
| Topa | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 25 |
| Durán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Jax | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Coulombe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Alcalá | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 |







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