Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

The clear strength of this year's Twins team lies in its pitching staff, and their rotation — led by a three-headed monster and backed by plenty of depth — is one of the biggest reasons to believe.

Image courtesy of Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Last season, Pablo López took a step backward, Joe Ryan missed the last two months, Chris Paddack missed the whole second half, and a bunch of rookies were thrown into the fire for a team attempting to contend. Through all of this, plus Sonny Gray exiting via free agency, Twins starters still finished with a top-five FIP in the American League, and they had the highest strikeout rate.

Here in 2025, they Twins are bringing back the whole gang, including a (hopefully) healthy Ryan and Paddack. Meanwhile, talented young hurlers will look to gain traction in the majors after getting their first taste, while prospects continue to progress toward big-league debuts.

It's an exciting time for the Twins rotation. Let's break it down.

TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Rotation: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
Depth: David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Travis Adams, Randy Dobnak
Prospects: Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Charlee Soto, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 9th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 7th out of 30

THE GOOD
Between López, Ryan and Bailey Ober, the Twins are heading into the season with a trio of legitimate frontline starters who could be counted on to pitch in a playoff scenario. It wouldn't be surprising if any of them were All-Stars. There aren't many teams around the league that can go three-deep in the rotation with this kind of quality and proven performance. 

It all starts with Pablo at the top. Preparing for his third consecutive Opening Day appearance, López has starred during his time in a Twins uniform, ranking ninth among MLB starters in fWAR since the start of 2023 with a pair of masterful postseason gems under his belt. López's results were down a bit last year but the stuff and underlying metrics were outstanding. He's locked in as a No. 1 starter, although it remains to be seen whether he get back on his previous track toward true "ace" billing.

Ober was consistently excellent last year, blossoming into the pitcher we all hoped he could become. While a few major clunkers scuffed up his overall numbers a bit, the big right-hander was usually very effective on the mound, posting an identical 3.60 ERA and FIP in 30 starts following his season-opening blow-up in Kansas City. 

Ryan was even better than Ober, and arguably the Twins' best pitcher when his season was cut short by a shoulder strain suffered in early August. At that time he was cruising along, with a 3.60 ERA of his own through 135 innings. His exceptional control helped Ryan hold opponents to a .257 on-base percentage, and his 3.1 fWAR ranked among the top 35 MLB starters even though he missed almost one-third of the season.

Health for pitchers is always precarious, but these three give ample reason for confidence on the durability front. López and Ober have not missed a start over the past two years, putting previous injury woes behind them. Ryan is coming off a season-ending teres major strain, but had a clear record of health before that, and appears to be fully recovered. He has nine strikeouts and two walks in 4 ⅔ innings this spring.

The team's fourth veteran starter, Chris Paddack, is much more of a question mark from a health standpoint. He's been limited to 115 innings across three seasons with the Twins due to elbow issues that required surgery in 2022 and flared up again last year. He does have good stuff and considerable upside when he's able to pitch, but the team can hardly count on him being available for even a majority of the season.

Which is okay because they've got a robust stable of young arms who are either ready or almost ready to enter the fold. Several have already gotten their feet wet in the big leagues. That includes fifth starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who accrued significant experience by making 28 starts with the Twins last year. 

His experience gave him an edge over David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom were optioned to Triple-A on Sunday but made their impressions in major-league camp. Matthews in particular has drawn rave reviews for the improvement he's already showing over last year, when he was the biggest breakout player in the Twins system.

Festa and Matthews will lead a loaded St. Paul rotation that also figures to include Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis and Travis Adams, giving Minnesota an enviable level of high-level minor-league talent to draw from when needed. Further down the line, prospect Charlee Soto is the one to watch – a sturdily built 19-year-old with upper-90s velocity and a stellar changeup. He's got the makings of a front-of-rotation workhorse. 

THE BAD
Young starters may find themselves put to the test for the Twins this year, and that's always a risky proposition. We saw this play out in the late stage of 2024 after Ryan went down. The dependability of the rotation was greatly diminished as Woods Richardson posted a 5.23 second-half ERA, Matthews took his lumps, and starters generally struggled to get through five innings on a regular basis, increasing the bullpen's burden.

If the Twins are forced to go without, say, Paddack and one member of their rotation-fronting trio, we'll see some relatively untested arms thrown into the fire. That's not necessarily a bad thing, because as mentioned above, there's much to like about the young stable of starting pitchers. But again, there's risk.

I think this unit has a relatively high floor, barring a massive wave of injuries, so really the big question is how high their ceiling is. The Twins have a good rotation – can it be great? That really depends on their veterans staying mostly healthy and finding ways to elevate. Can López lock in some consistency and assert himself as a true standout No. 1, or will he again post an ERA in the 4 range? Can Ryan and Ober replicate or improve on their 2024 campaigns? Will Paddack finally be able to tap into the upside that is continually associated with him? Is the Derek Falvey pipeline ready to deliver? 

These questions will determine the true quality of the Twins starting pitching corps, which could just as easily be elite as pretty good.

THE BOTTOM LINE
This has the potential to be a top-three rotation in all of baseball, but that'll require good health and some breakthroughs from the younger crop of MLB-ready arms. If things click the way the Twins are hoping, with their quality depth setting up a dependable starter to take the mound for nearly every game, they're going to be a tough team to beat. You just don't find that many teams with actually good pitchers in the back of their rotation and the Twins are arguably about eight-deep in that regard right now.

Share your thoughts on the outlook at starting pitcher below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis Series:

• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

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[mike8791]

In general agreement with the rotation as strength of the team!  Lopez, Ober and Ryan are solid.  SWR has looked good this spring.  The hope is that he has more stamina to avoid another late season meltdown.  Paddack is big question mark, but ok to begin the season as #5 in the rotation.  

My concerns are the following:

1. As you noted, a 4+ ERA for Lopez is not a sign of a #1 starter.  And his spring training results are worrisome with an 8.0 ERA to date.   What';s behind this?  Is he experimenting with a new pitch or is there something more serious here?  Why no mention of this in article?

2. I question the depth of the rotation.  We saw what Ryan's injury did to the team's performance late in the season.  Who will step up if one of the big 3(or 4) is injured?  Festa has been very disappointing this spring.  Mathews has been much better but his falloff last season is concerning.  There is no one else after Mathews who could step into a major league rotation as of now.

Looks to me like the success of the rotation has some ? marks.  Twins have some surplus in IF(less now w/Lewis injury) and rotation(assuming guys like Feta, Morris, maybe Lewis excel at St. Paul).   Cease would be a quantum jump in quality.  Perhaps with a sale on the horizon by Aug. 1st, the Twins will be able to make such an acquisition w/new owners.  One can always hope!

 

[mikelink45]

Good analysis - I wonder if Zebby passed Festa in the pecking order?  I have mentioned elsewhere that I hope Paddack looks good and we trade him before he breaks down again.  This team has so many players position and pitching who seem fragile and it might be good to move some when they are healthy and performing.  Paddack is first in mind from the pitching staff.  We have already seen Topa, Tonkin, and Stewart tweaked this spring and if Topa comes back he would be the next pitcher I would trade.

I like the volume of arms and look forward to more youth in the rotation. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Great overview of the Twins starting pitching situation.  Indeed, the top three are really solid and I hope that one of them can truly take another step forward and really become that stopper that every team needs to guard against losing streaks.  Remember, if the other team doesn’t score — you can’t lose.

The younger talent - SWR, Festa, Matthew’s, etc. really looks the part of MLB starters, which is a big change from many past years when we were promoting guys on the basis of “has been a minor league starting pitcher” in order to fill one of three (or even four!) holes in the rotation to start the year.  Honestly, it’s hard to be anything but optimistic about this staff.  I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll say it again, there are VERY few years in Twins history with a starting staff that looked this good.  Let’s hope they deliver!

[Nashvilletwin]

Falvey deserves credit for building a solid core rotation for good overall $ value. Pitching generally wins, so, for a cash constrained franchise like the Twins, this is part of a solid strategy.

Now, if Lopez could just get someone out this spring….

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Pitching is always a risk due to the nature of the position.  Un-natural stress, motions, and angles.  With the added max-effort expectations, it is a boon to see pitchers make it through an entire season.

More than any other position, the Twins SP will determine how competitive the Twins will be this year.  I agree that on paper, the Twins have a very high floor.  If they a see a larger amount of success from the Paddack, Festa, Matthews group. it will be interesting to see if they try to parlay some of that depth into a position of need (MLB 1B / C prospect)

[TheLeviathan]

The pitching pipeline appears to be up and running.  

We also appear to be primed to waste this pitching staff with our lack of offense.

[bean5302]

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2.

2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn.
Liriano > Lopez 
Pavano = Ryan
Baker < Ober
Slowey > Paddack
Blackburn = SWR

Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

[LambchoP]

I think a great strategy would be to trade Paddack at or before the deadline before he wears down. If he can stay healthy until then and put up ok numbers, we should be able to get something for him. Pitching is always a premium at the deadline. Maybe we package him with someone else for a front line starter. Maybe an heir apparent catcher to Vasquez? If one or both of Festa and Mathews looks ready to go and replace Paddack, I think this would be the way to go. No way he stays healthy and effective all year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

32 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Falvey deserves credit for building a solid core rotation for good overall $ value. Pitching generally wins, so, for a cash constrained franchise like the Twins, this is part of a solid strategy.

Now, if Lopez could just get someone out this spring….

I was just going to post something like this. Falvey is due a lot of praise for the starting rotation, the pipeline of prospects (including a great spring by Connor Prielipp. Remember this lefty!) and the outstanding relief staff. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

1. As you noted, a 4+ ERA for Lopez is not a sign of a #1 starter.  And his spring training results are worrisome with an 8.0 ERA to date.   What';s behind this?  Is he experimenting with a new pitch or is there something more serious here?  Why no mention of this in article?

 

I didn't mention Lopez's ERA in 14 innings this spring because I find it irrelevant to his outlook this season. He's healthy, that's what matters. Same is true for SWR and his 0.82 ERA on the flip side.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have a strong starting pitcher contingent. They will need to ride these guys for any success this season. The only question in the rotation is Chris Paddack. Paddack wasn't going to bring anything worth mentioning in a trade and he can be a solid starter for the team.

The support behind the staff is good. Festa has good stuff and although he wasn't overpowering this spring he is a guy who can fill in. Both Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris carved through MLB batters this spring and are solid bets to be good starters when their opportunity arrives. No team is going to trade a middle of the order bat and the Twins have enough 7-8-9 hitters, thus it makes sense to wait until next offseason before any trades.

My couch tells me that the Twins pitching is solid and the question marks are all related to the position players. Can the bats score runs and will the gloves corral those routine outs?

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

The Twins have a strong starting pitcher contingent. They will need to ride these guys for any success this season. The only question in the rotation is Chris Paddack. Paddack wasn't going to bring anything worth mentioning in a trade and he can be a solid starter for the team.

The support behind the staff is good. Festa has good stuff and although he wasn't overpowering this spring he is a guy who can fill in. Both Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris carved through MLB batters this spring and are solid bets to be good starters when their opportunity arrives. No team is going to trade a middle of the order bat and the Twins have enough 7-8-9 hitters, thus it makes sense to wait until next offseason before any trades.

My couch tells me that the Twins pitching is solid and the question marks are all related to the position players. Can the bats score runs and will the gloves corral those routine outs?

Agree

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I think a great strategy would be to trade Paddack at or before the deadline before he wears down. If he can stay healthy until then and put up ok numbers, we should be able to get something for him. Pitching is always a premium at the deadline. Maybe we package him with someone else for a front line starter. Maybe an heir apparent catcher to Vasquez? If one or both of Festa and Mathews looks ready to go and replace Paddack, I think this would be the way to go. No way he stays healthy and effective all year.

Chris Paddack has only been healthy at a full season trade deadline once in his entire career (2019). A great strategy would be to trade him before the regular season opens (depending on any health issues that pop up) rather than having him blocking better pitchers.

[PatPfund]

All offseason, I thought the biggest need this team had was a healthy veteran arm to soak up quality innings, and prevent last year's mess of running-on-fumes untested arms (plus the unavoidable regression by some of them). Morris and Zebby have eased that a bit this spring (both have looked good against good players), but Festa is a reminder (even if this is a spring mirage) that development in rarely done in a straight line.

I like where we are starting, but expect we'll see at least 2 St Paul Saints starting for the Twins by May 1st. That scares me a bit less than a couple months ago.

[rdehring]

Question.  You didn't list Raya as a probably Saints starter.  He is going to be in St. Paul as a starter, isn't he?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2.

2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn.
Liriano > Lopez 
Pavano = Ryan
Baker < Ober
Slowey > Paddack
Blackburn = SWR

Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

Maybe.  However, Liriano had his best season as a Twin (outside of his rookie year, when he really was great), but going into the season didn't really have a track record indicating that he would be that good.  After that season, he was not good for at all until he made it to Pittsburgh. If I had to draft one to be my SP1, it would definitely be Lopez over Liriano (unless we're using the rookie season).  I would probably also argue that Ryan was also better than Pavano.  I will give you Slowey over Paddack, but SWR last season was much better than the 2010 version of Blackburn.  So, yes.  Deep.  But I would argue pretty strong too. 

 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Maybe.  However, Liriano had his best season as a Twin (outside of his rookie year, when he really was great), but going into the season didn't really have a track record indicating that he would be that good.  After that season, he was not good for at all until he made it to Pittsburgh. If I had to draft one to be my SP1, it would definitely be Lopez over Liriano (unless we're using the rookie season).  I would probably also argue that Ryan was also better than Pavano.  I will give you Slowey over Paddack, but SWR last season was much better than the 2010 version of Blackburn.  So, yes.  Deep.  But I would argue pretty strong too. 

 

We know what happened in 2010 so I'm comparing my expectations this year to what actually happened in 2010.

That said, Liriano was perhaps the best starter in baseball in 2006. Obviously missed 2007 and a big portion of 2008, but he was very good in the 14 limited innings starts 2008. 2009 was a rough year for him (like Lopez's season last year), but Liriano had shown potential ace upside previously.

When it comes to Pavano, Ryan's current track record wasn't as good as Pavano's was coming into 2010, and Ryan's typical full season (especially with the 2nd half flop), would be about on par with what Pavano did in 2010.

I expect about a 4.50 ERA from Woods-Richardson this year. Maybe 1.0 WAR? Blackburn had a longer leash to get pummeled back in 2010, but with 12 of the 26 starts (46%) were at least 5.0 innings with less than a 4.00 ERA, and 14 of 26 (54%) being a quality start. Compared to SWR's numbers (43%) and (25%), respectively, Blackburn's 2010 was pretty even with SWR's 2024, IMHO.

[DocBauer]

The top 3 are all legitimate All Star possibilities, for what that's worth, and playoff caliber starters. If I had to pick one to have the best season and get Cy Young votes it would be Lopez. It's all about a little more consistency earlier in the season for him.

SWR could regress. But he could also progress, which he was doing in 2024 until he ran out of gas setting a career high in IP.

Paddack is the mystery man. I'm not expecting anything more than a dozen starts, 70 IP, and just keep the Twins in games until he's hurt. And maybe that's more than enough with the younger and more talented Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Lewis ]sitting at AAA getting a little more time to settle in and develop.

I think there's a chance Paddack could surprise. When he came up he was a 2 pitch pitcher. Since then his breaking balls have advanced. If he can maintain velocity this year...unlike last season...and get the feel for his changeup back, he might actually be good.

High floor but a pretty high ceiling here as well. Odd but crazy good that the arms waiting in AAA are probably better than those of the 4-5th arms currently in the rotation.

[jkcarew]

“ His experience gave him an edge over David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom were optioned to Triple-A on Sunday but made their impressions in major-league camp.”

Quite different impressions I would think. The impression Festa made is that he has a mountain of work to do on the new approach that nobody knew he needed.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

The impression Festa made is that he has a mountain of work to do on the new approach that nobody knew he needed.

The changes surprised me.  I watched a couple of his outings and it was obvious that he was working on new pitches and a new start from the stretch and not necessarily worried about getting outs or making a team. David must have had numerous conversations with coaches, other players, and advisors about his repertoire after last season. Remember, Festa was excellent after his first two outings last year.  Apparently the decision made involved a new approach (no windup) at the start and adding pitches. Unsurprisingly, these changes take some time and the hope is that refinement and command boosts him to a top to mid rotation pitcher. The Twins made a decision that Chris Paddack was entrenched in their rotation just as Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Perhaps Festa knew that decision last October and sought a means to stick out at some point this season. Hopefully the changes make him a better pitcher and more equipped to successfully navigate through MLB lineups 3-4 times by July.

Festa, Matthews, and Morris all seem capable of success at the MLB level and more experience refining command and pitches can only help them. Is it possible that the Saints games will be more entertaining than the Twins this summer? 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

“ His experience gave him an edge over David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom were optioned to Triple-A on Sunday but made their impressions in major-league camp.”

Quite different impressions I would think. The impression Festa made is that he has a mountain of work to do on the new approach that nobody knew he needed.

I'm not exactly sure about him pitching from the stretch, but he's working on a 2 seamer to help against RH batters. 

Originally, I thought i had heard it was a curveball, but the 2 seamer has been reported about the time ST began.

I think this is also an example of not putting too much stock in ST numbers. It's great when someone blows batters away, or knocks the crap out of the ball, but we never really know what's being worked on over such a small sample size.

[Nick Nelson]

8 hours ago, rdehring said:

Question.  You didn't list Raya as a probably Saints starter.  He is going to be in St. Paul as a starter, isn't he?

Between him and the 5 guys I mentioned, I'd certainly think he's most likely to go back to Wichita given his youth and the need to build stamina. I also didn't mention Dobnak. I dunno how they're gonna handle the number of Triple-A caliber starters, honestly. It's a good question. Maybe a lot of piggybacking? 

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

“ His experience gave him an edge over David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom were optioned to Triple-A on Sunday but made their impressions in major-league camp.”

Quite different impressions I would think. The impression Festa made is that he has a mountain of work to do on the new approach that nobody knew he needed.

Festa walked 3 of 54 batters faced. I can assure you the Twins are most pleased with that than concerned about his results in 11 innings with a .450 BABIP. If he can throw the ball in the zone he's gonna be successful.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that the Saints games will be more entertaining than the Twins this summer? 

Were we not saying the same thing this time a year ago?  The Saints finished 70-79.

I'm a prospect hound and I always want to believe.  If the Twins themselves look a little questionable, brighter days are surely ahead - why, just look at the crop we have coming up.  Oh, our AAA team is gonna be stacked.  🌈  🦄

In the FalVine era, really only the 2017 and 2023 AAA teams had good records.  That 2017 Red Wings squad was headlined on offense by ... checking ...  Matt Hague, Niko Goodrum, JB Shuck., and with pitching by ... Alex Slegers, David Hurlbut and Drew Rucinski.  Okay, be fair, that was the new FO getting its legs under itself.  But that mighty 2023 Saints team was led by ... Andrew Stevenson, Mark Contreras, Chris Williams, and the pitchers ... Dobnak, Woods-Richardson, and someone called Patrick Murphy.  Okay, SWR is legit.  But winning didn't come predominantly from massive numbers of plate appearances and innings pitched by the young stars we want to see - those wins came instead from retreads similar to the retreads the other AAA teams were putting out there too.

Sure, go to Saints games - if I still lived there I would too - but keep the expectations in check.  You'll be seeing lots of playing time for guys you aren't even aware at the moment that the organization might be signing.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Were we not saying the same thing this time a year ago?  The Saints finished 70-79.

Not at all. Huge difference in personnel from last year to now. 

You are correct  that winning is not as big a focus, even at AAA.

I'm a big fan of milb.com and didn't watch as many AAA as AA and A+.

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Not at all. Huge difference in personnel from last year to now. 

You are correct  that winning is not as big a focus, even at AAA.

I'm a big fan of milb.com and didn't watch as many AAA as AA and A+.

I was responding more to the message and not particularly about calling you out - indeed I didn't do any due-diligence beforehand to find what you personally might have said a year ago, and you probably weren't touting the Saints for 2024.  

It's an evergreen subject though, and gets expressed at one minor league level or another.  Wichita a couple of years ago was said to be a juggernaut, and instead we had a fizzle.  It almost stands to reason why it would automatically be so - if players are actually ready to dominate their league, they wouldn't be placed there in April, and if they showed dominance then they'd be moved up.

I agree that AA and A-ball are more likely to be entertaining.  AAA is basically my last choice for going to a ballgame unless I'm going with a group.  I suppose I've belabored my apathy toward AAA before.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, rdehring said:

Question.  You didn't list Raya as a probably Saints starter.  He is going to be in St. Paul as a starter, isn't he?

Raya's hurt right now. I imagine he will spend time in St. Paul this summer. So will CJ Culpepper.

[Doctor Wu]

22 hours ago, mike8791 said:

As you noted, a 4+ ERA for Lopez is not a sign of a #1 starter.  And his spring training results are worrisome with an 8.0 ERA to date.   What';s behind this?  Is he experimenting with a new pitch or is there something more serious here?  Why no mention of this in article?

Good points. He had a rocky spring training last year too, and some pointed out that he was indeed experimenting with new pitches, or mixes of pitches, but what's the excuse this year? Sure, it's only spring training, but I would hope for more encouraging signs, especially from a  vet like Lopez.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2.

2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn.
Liriano > Lopez 
Pavano = Ryan
Baker < Ober
Slowey > Paddack
Blackburn = SWR

Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

Some interesting comparisons. I still hope that Ryan has a better career than Pavano, and I'm thinking that SWR will beat Blackburn's numbers by a wide margin. But I also think Paddack is and will be a better pitcher than Slowey, health permitting of course.