Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, mike8791 said:

In general agreement with the rotation as strength of the team!  Lopez, Ober and Ryan are solid.  SWR has looked good this spring.  The hope is that he has more stamina to avoid another late season meltdown.  Paddack is big question mark, but ok to begin the season as #5 in the rotation.  

My concerns are the following:

1. As you noted, a 4+ ERA for Lopez is not a sign of a #1 starter.  And his spring training results are worrisome with an 8.0 ERA to date.   What';s behind this?  Is he experimenting with a new pitch or is there something more serious here?  Why no mention of this in article?

2. I question the depth of the rotation.  We saw what Ryan's injury did to the team's performance late in the season.  Who will step up if one of the big 3(or 4) is injured?  Festa has been very disappointing this spring.  Mathews has been much better but his falloff last season is concerning.  There is no one else after Mathews who could step into a major league rotation as of now.

Looks to me like the success of the rotation has some ? marks.  Twins have some surplus in IF(less now w/Lewis injury) and rotation(assuming guys like Feta, Morris, maybe Lewis excel at St. Paul).   Cease would be a quantum jump in quality.  Perhaps with a sale on the horizon by Aug. 1st, the Twins will be able to make such an acquisition w/new owners.  One can always hope!

 

Again with the "new ownership is going to spend like a drunken sailor" theory.

[dxpavelka]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2.

2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn.
Liriano > Lopez 
Pavano = Ryan
Baker < Ober
Slowey > Paddack
Blackburn = SWR

Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

If SWR is not a LOT better than Blackburn it's a good thing there are a half dozen guys on the farm that probably are.  Something that could NOT be said in 2010.

[Otaknam]

It’s a bit of hyperbole to call the Twins top starters as a “three headed monster”, which implies that they are lock down number 1 or 2 starters. None of these three are aces. However, they are very solid starters and give the team a good chance to win during most of their starts. Beyond those three, the  strength of the starting pitching is the young but still unproven depth that will undoubtedly be needed sooner rather than later. Hopefully, SWR builds on his 2024 and very solid spring, and maybe adds a couple of ticks on his fastball. 

[IndianaTwin]

From the OP: Young starters may find themselves put to the test for the Twins this year, and that's always a risky proposition. We saw this play out in the late stage of 2024 after Ryan went down. The dependability of the rotation was greatly diminished as Woods Richardson posted a 5.23 second-half ERA, Matthews took his lumps, and starters generally struggled to get through five innings on a regular basis, increasing the bullpen's burden.

 

Post All-Star Break, starters made it through five innings in 42 of 68 games. That's 62 percent of the time, closer to two-thirds of the time than half, which is what "generally" implies. 

[Patzky]

So about the Sheriff.. he did pretty darn good tonight 

[jkcarew]

On 3/17/2025 at 8:35 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Festa walked 3 of 54 batters faced. I can assure you the Twins are most pleased with that than concerned about his results in 11 innings with a .450 BABIP. If he can throw the ball in the zone he's gonna be successful.

So the reduced K rate (and against spring training competItion), the hard hit extra base hits/HRs…and most notably, the return to the minors of their top pitching prospect at age 25 after a 3.76 FIP over 13 starts and 64 innings in his rookie year…these were all part of the plan.