What Does An Edouard Julien Bounceback Look Like?

[Cody Pirkl]

Edouard Julien went through a painful sophomore slump in 2024. He is now battling to make the opening-day roster against several other worthy candidates. What does an Edouard Julien bounceback look like?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Edouard Julien came on strong in 2023 with his elite plate discipline and left-handed thump, helping to propel the team down the stretch. 2024 was a different story. It felt like opposing pitchers figured Julien out, and he could not adjust. 2025 is a make-or-break season for Julien. Can he put himself back in the Twins’ plans?

Plate discipline was Julien’s calling card during his 2024 breakout. He was a prime candidate to lead off against right-handed pitching despite a strikeout rate of over 30% due to his ability to get on base. His patient approach allowed him to work walks and get ahold of plenty of mistakes in favorable counts, resulting in a slash line 35% above league average.

In 2024, that plate discipline crossed the line into being overly passive, as Julien led the league in looking strikeouts despite spending a large chunk of the season in Triple-A. His OPS dropped from .839 to .616, as opposing pitchers seemed to realize they could fill up the zone to get to two strikes and catch Julien fishing when he was forced into swing mode. His walk rate declined from 15.7% to 11%

The obvious answer for Julien to opposing pitchers' adjustments is to become a touch more aggressive. The less obvious but all too familiar adjustment has more to do with handling breaking pitches. Julien didn’t manage an expected batting average of .200 or an expected slugging percentage of .300 against breaking balls or offspeed pitches in 2024. He swung and missed at both over 40% of the time.

This adjustment is easier said than done, but the Twins should have a blueprint for addressing it. Struggles against non-fastballs previously defined Trevor Larnach’s career, and we finally saw him make progress in 2024. From 2023 to 2024, Larnach dropped his whiff rate against breaking balls by over 15%. Larnach maintained a 10% walk rate while cutting his strikeout rate from 34% to 22.3%. If Edouard Julien can come anywhere close to this level of adjustment, it would be nearly impossible to keep him out of the lineup.

Another factor in Julien’s return to form with the Twins may be his defense. Despite flashing at times defensively and reports from the Twins that his defense had improved, Julien graded out worse in several defensive metrics from his 2024 season. Brooks Lee, on the other hand, looks to be an elite defender at second base. For Julien to hold down the position, it will likely take at least average defense to go along with a significant offensive rebound. First base may also be an option should the need arise, but second base is likely his best immediate path onto the roster.

Brooks Lee is coming off a tough debut in his own right, and the Twins likely don’t want to pencil superutility man Willi Castro into an everyday second base role. Edouard Julien can come out firing this spring and win the second base job when the team heads north for the season.

Edouard Julien once looked like a core member of the Twins lineup, but a lot changed over the last season. Now, in an open competition to make the team out of spring training, he needs an enormous bounceback season. Can Eddie Julien adjust back?

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[High heat]

I don’t think Julien getting back to ‘23 form is out of the question.  He did not adjust last season and the power disappeared.  I think an adjustment to being more aggressive early in counts and looking for pitches to drive.  (Some Jason Kubel guess swings is ok). A lot of that comes down to coaching and implementing a plan.  
 

Defensively The Twins need to move Julien to 1B.  The Twins have some really good options at 2B going forward and Julien will never be a good defender there.  Move Julien to 1B let him learn the footwork and movement needed for 1B and removes his biggest weakness at 2B his arm.  

[DJL44]

I disagree that Brooks Lee is likely to be an elite defender at 2B. He's probably going to be good enough, with good hands and an accurate arm, but I don't think he has elite range (not enough foot speed).

That said, I don't see how Julien makes it to the top of the defensive depth chart at 2B above Castro or Lee. I don't see a long or short-term future for Julien at 2B. I think he needs to learn how to play 1B.

If he can't improve his performance against breaking balls, then his career is over. I don't think he's ever going to be as good against breaking pitches as he is against fastballs, but it's possible he makes a marginal improvement this season. If you're going to bet on an offensive profile, his career numbers (.235/.343/.399) are a good place to start. That's good enough to contribute at the MLB level, but not good enough to be an everyday starter.

 

 

[RpR]

On 2/20/2025 at 3:35 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

Edouard Julien went through a painful sophomore slump in 2024. He is now battling to make the opening-day roster against several other worthy candidates. What does an Edouard Julien bounceback look like?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Edouard Julien came on strong in 2023 with his elite plate discipline and left-handed thump, helping to propel the team down the stretch. 2024 was a different story. It felt like opposing pitchers figured Julien out, and he could not adjust. 2025 is a make-or-break season for Julien. Can he put himself back in the Twins’ plans?

Plate discipline was Julien’s calling card during his 2024 breakout. He was a prime candidate to lead off against right-handed pitching despite a strikeout rate of over 30% due to his ability to get on base. His patient approach allowed him to work walks and get ahold of plenty of mistakes in favorable counts, resulting in a slash line 35% above league average.

In 2024, that plate discipline crossed the line into being overly passive, as Julien led the league in looking strikeouts despite spending a large chunk of the season in Triple-A. His OPS dropped from .839 to .616, as opposing pitchers seemed to realize they could fill up the zone to get to two strikes and catch Julien fishing when he was forced into swing mode. His walk rate declined from 15.7% to 11%

The obvious answer for Julien to opposing pitchers' adjustments is to become a touch more aggressive. The less obvious but all too familiar adjustment has more to do with handling breaking pitches. Julien didn’t manage an expected batting average of .200 or an expected slugging percentage of .300 against breaking balls or offspeed pitches in 2024. He swung and missed at both over 40% of the time.

This adjustment is easier said than done, but the Twins should have a blueprint for addressing it. Struggles against non-fastballs previously defined Trevor Larnach’s career, and we finally saw him make progress in 2024. From 2023 to 2024, Larnach dropped his whiff rate against breaking balls by over 15%. Larnach maintained a 10% walk rate while cutting his strikeout rate from 34% to 22.3%. If Edouard Julien can come anywhere close to this level of adjustment, it would be nearly impossible to keep him out of the lineup.

Another factor in Julien’s return to form with the Twins may be his defense. Despite flashing at times defensively and reports from the Twins that his defense had improved, Julien graded out worse in several defensive metrics from his 2024 season. Brooks Lee, on the other hand, looks to be an elite defender at second base. For Julien to hold down the position, it will likely take at least average defense to go along with a significant offensive rebound. First base may also be an option should the need arise, but second base is likely his best immediate path onto the roster.

Brooks Lee is coming off a tough debut in his own right, and the Twins likely don’t want to pencil superutility man Willi Castro into an everyday second base role. Edouard Julien can come out firing this spring and win the second base job when the team heads north for the season.

Edouard Julien once looked like a core member of the Twins lineup, but a lot changed over the last season. Now, in an open competition to make the team out of spring training, he needs an enormous bounceback season. Can Eddie Julien adjust back?

 

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"What Does An Edouard Julien Bounceback Look Like?"

One this site a lot of wishful thinking.

His glove work is and always has been poor; at first he would be a disaster.

[High heat]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

"What Does An Edouard Julien Bounceback Look Like?"

One this site a lot of wishful thinking.

His glove work is and always has been poor; at first he would be a disaster.

The things he doesn’t do well defensively are much limited at 1B.  He has a poor arm, he struggles with the transfer and has at best average range at 2B.  

You dont have to make many throws at 1B and range is a step and a dive either direction.  
 

I actually think he would be ok to good defensively at 1B. Julien is similar to Jeff Kent defensively.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that the Julien renaissance probably looks like something a little bit south of his rookie season offensively, but likely north of it defensively.  As has been written about by many, he needs a change in approach to adjust to the major league pitchers' adjustment to him.  I think that's doable.  It's not like he hasn't hit in the past at every level, as well as (briefly) at the majors.  His "passivity" at the plate frustrates many a fan, but would you rather have a Max Kepler weak pop up or weak ground out?  The strikeouts and the weak contact are both outs and neither are going to do anything for the scoring situation, and yet we scholarshipped Kepler for years.  For Julien, a little more aggressiveness early in the count might lead to more of the 131 OPS+ player that we saw in 2023.  I would be very pleased with a solid hitter at the 115-120 OPS+ level. 

If you assume that his defense is never going to improve (except it did) then he is destined only for the land of the DH, but I would maintain that the improvement that we saw for a while at the beginning of last season (before he turned into a real mess everywhere) is probably more indicative for what we can expect.  If you've already made up your mind about his defense, there are plenty of other productive players in Twins history that you would have missed out on.  The combination of a near .800 OPS hitter with a near average defender would certainly play.  Now if he can just get back there!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

hit ball fair
reach base safe
play defense good

[chpettit19]

Take his VBA (vertical bat angle) from 45-50 to 30-35 and he'll be alright. Easier said than done, but many in the industry believe the Orioles concentrate pretty hard on VBA and being able to adjust your swing to pitch locations so hopefully Mr. Borgschulte can help Julien with that and get him back closer to what he was in 2023.

[NYCTK]

Only thing that would get me a bit excited is seeing hit something like .342/.468/.526 in with a sub 25% K rate in Spring Training. 

Just like he did last Spring Training...

[Linus]

I hope he can make it back but I am not counting on it.  Forget 2023 - his babip was 373 and the league had never seen him.  The league adjusted last year and he did not.  It’s a story as old as baseball.  The bar is even higher because of his defensive deficiencies.  He did improve in basic fielding of ground balls but let’s be honest he was brutal when he first came up.  His arm is poor and he lacks instincts.  His turn on the double play is slow and he frequently feeds the double play way out of rhythm.  They should move him to first ASAP or just DH him.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, High heat said:

Defensively The Twins need to move Julien to 1B.  The Twins have some really good options at 2B going forward and Julien will never be a good defender there.  Move Julien to 1B let him learn the footwork and movement needed for 1B and removes his biggest weakness at 2B his arm.  

He's a right handed thrower and not particularly tall, neither of which is ideal for 1B. They tried Julien at 1B in 42 games in 2021, then a combined 12 games in 2022-2024. It looks like the Twins (even though strongly valuing positional flexibility) learned that Julien was not 1B material.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Only thing that would get me a bit excited is seeing hit something like .342/.468/.526 in with a sub 25% K rate in Spring Training. 

Just like he did last Spring Training...

If your point is that ST numbers aren't indicative of the regular season, I would point out that on the morning of May 4 Julien had an OPS of .827 across 117 PA, playing every game the Twins were in.  After that his OPS in the majors was .488.  Yes, the 31st game represents a cherry-picked endpoint, and I have no idea if he slipped in the bathtub that next morning and damaged something - it's just to illustrate that he continued a good start to his year until one day he suddenly did or could not.

[Nashvilletwin]

What does Julien’s bounce back look like?
 

Starting 2B or 1B for the ChiSox, Reds, A’s, Rays, or Rockies, etc. and a 2026 All Star nod. 

[Guest]

Ain't happening.  Julien's ultimate problem is dealing with Uncle Charlie.  Wishing upon a Larnach-star isn't a strategy.  The problem has been pointed out to Julien for over a year.  See you in St. Paul, Eddie....

[TwinsDr2021]

Sometimes I don't get this site, Julien is 200 days older than Eeles and has MLB 709 plate appearances with slash of .235/.343/.399/.742 and he is done and Eeles is the future with 469 minor league plate appearances.

I am not saying Julien he will make it or not or that Eeles won't end up with a better career. But I will say if the Twins would have held him out of the majors the last two years and he was putting up .900 OPS in the minors the same people saying he is done would be calling him the future.

[Doctor Gast]

Julien was never good at 2B no matter how much they spin the stats & have Correa & Santana cover for him. His problem is more than a sophomore slump, like Larnach he has to reinvent himself. Most of his power came from waiting for a nice FB that he could pull. Now all he'll get is junk on the outside of the plate. So now he'll have to be more aggressive w/o striking out & learn how to hit those junk pitches. I doubt very much that he'll ever generate that power he had even if he's able to reinvent himself he won't profile at 1B. I saw no future for Julien at 2B & advocated to trade him. Now that he's not a fit at 1B, I definitely want to trade him. IMO Julien's Renaissance won't be arriving.

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

"What Does An Edouard Julien Bounceback Look Like?"

One this site a lot of wishful thinking.

His glove work is and always has been poor; at first he would be a disaster.

Like Ty France

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

 His "passivity" at the plate frustrates many a fan, but would you rather have a Max Kepler weak pop up or weak ground out?  The strikeouts and the weak contact are both outs and neither are going to do anything for the scoring situation, and yet we scholarshipped Kepler for years. 

Kepler had an elite glove; Julien has a little League glove.!!!

[jorgenswest]

I found his approach at the plate in his first training game encouraging.

First at bat. First pitch down the middle. Line drive single.

Second at bat. Takes ball 1 and ball 2. He took a called strike pitch 3 but he was ahead in the count. The pitch was in the upper away part of the strike zone. Pitch 4 was an outside middle strike that he lined out to left field.

Third at bat. First pitch center up in the strike zone. Ground out.

His approach didn’t work last year. I can’t argue with his approach yesterday. The one called strike was when he was ahead 2-0. He should shrink the strike zone when ahead. I suppose he could have taken that first strike in at bat 3 but at this point I would rather see him error on the side of aggressiveness.

[Muppet]

I'm a Julien believer. He was electric a couple of years ago. A one-two punch of Julien and Lewis looked like it had the makings of a Mauer Morneau pair, or a Canseco McGwire... you get the picture. 

I remember either a writer or podcaster about a year ago comment on Julien's delayed development due to his coming up in Quebec where baseball wasn't prominent enough to have top tier coaching at the pre-college level. I'm hopeful that he just needs a bit of time to learn how to overcome the setback at the highest level. 

Part of having rookies succeed is being willing to put up with sophomore slumps and growing pains. Let's just hope that this is the year. 

[DJL44]

The Astros are looking for a lefthanded bat who can play infield so they can move Altuve to the outfield. If Julien has trouble making the roster he could find a home elsewhere.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Astros are looking for a lefthanded bat who can play infield so they can move Altuve to the outfield. If Julien has trouble making the roster he could find a home elsewhere.

Maybe he can join Kyle Garlick with the Reno, Aces; Garlick had a .773 OPS , with 28 home runs down there.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Julien was never good at 2B no matter how much they spin the stats & have Correa & Santana cover for him. His problem is more than a sophomore slump, like Larnach he has to reinvent himself. Most of his power came from waiting for a nice FB that he could pull. Now all he'll get is junk on the outside of the plate. So now he'll have to be more aggressive w/o striking out & learn how to hit those junk pitches. I doubt very much that he'll ever generate that power he had even if he's able to reinvent himself he won't profile at 1B. I saw no future for Julien at 2B & advocated to trade him. Now that he's not a fit at 1B, I definitely want to trade him. IMO Julien's Renaissance won't be arriving.

Julien has flaws, but being a pull hitter isn't one of them. He went the other way at an above average rate both years. His super steep VBA forces him to. This is not the spray chart of a guy just trying to pull fastballs.

[Joe A. Preusser]

We're talking about Austin Martin somehow becoming an elite outfielder, but Julien  can't do what thousands of past young major leaguers have done and figure out how to adjust their hitting approach?  

He's not going to just forget how to crush fastballs.  If he improves enough against offspeed stuff he'll force pitchers to throw more of them.  Easier said than done, but simple path.

[Riverbrian]

17 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Julien was never good at 2B no matter how much they spin the stats & have Correa & Santana cover for him. His problem is more than a sophomore slump, like Larnach he has to reinvent himself. Most of his power came from waiting for a nice FB that he could pull. Now all he'll get is junk on the outside of the plate. So now he'll have to be more aggressive w/o striking out & learn how to hit those junk pitches. I doubt very much that he'll ever generate that power he had even if he's able to reinvent himself he won't profile at 1B. I saw no future for Julien at 2B & advocated to trade him. Now that he's not a fit at 1B, I definitely want to trade him. IMO Julien's Renaissance won't be arriving.

I apologize but I'm really confused by your post. 

Did Larnach reinvent himself? Did Larnach make adjustments? Don't they all make adjustments along the way? If Julien hits like Larnach... will that be enough? 

Pull hitter? Not in the games I watched. Julien has always hit the ball hard the other way... and yes... he can also turn on a pitch. 

No future at 2B? Defensively... he has been on par with Lux, Rengifo, Torres, Cronenworth and Westburg.

But... Ok... he must be moved to 1B where his bat isn't sufficient to play?

His 2023 slugging numbers would have ranked 6th among 1B last year. .459 would have tied with Pete Alonso and would have ranked ahead of Matt Olson. His 2023 OPS would have ranked 4th with last years numbers.  

I get it... his 2024 wasn't good. But his 2023 was really really really good. 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

We're talking about Austin Martin somehow becoming an elite outfielder, but Julien  can't do what thousands of past young major leaguers have done and figure out how to adjust their hitting approach?  

He's not going to just forget how to crush fastballs.  If he improves enough against offspeed stuff he'll force pitchers to throw more of them.  Easier said than done, but simple path.

The chances of either of the two happening are pretty low.  If I had to bet on one of them it would be Julien making some sort of a comeback but for every young hitter that figures it out there are two that don’t.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I apologize but I'm really confused by your post. 

Did Larnach reinvent himself? Did Larnach make adjustments? Don't they all make adjustments along the way? If Julien hits like Larnach... will that be enough?

No future at 2B? Defensively... he has been on par with Lux, Rengifo, Torres, Cronenworth and Westburg.

But... Ok... he must be moved to 1B where his bat isn't sufficient to play?

His 2023 slugging numbers would have ranked 6th among 1B last year. .459 would have tied with Pete Alonso and would have ranked ahead of Matt Olson. His 2023 OPS would have ranked 4th with last years numbers.  

I get it... his 2024 wasn't good. But his 2023 was really really really good. 

Like I wrote before, for Julien it was more than a sophomore slump where he'll just make a minor adjustment. He'll have to completely change his hitting approach. That's why I stated that I considered him as 1B candidate in '23 but in '24 how the league has completely figured him out (much like they did with Gallo) So you can throw those '23 stats out the window, it's not going to happen.

& as wrote before Julien isn't good at 2B, defensive stats can't be trusted & they be spun to say anything you want them to say. & it really helps to have Correa & Santana cover for you. When Correa was down it was obvious how bad he was. It's better to have a better 2Bman & have the SS & 1Bman to play their regular defensive positions.

So far I haven't seen him adjusted offensively yet. I hope he can & regain some semblance of power he had in '23 so he can somewhat profile at 1B. But my expectations are not high.

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Like I wrote before, for Julien it was more than a sophomore slump where he'll just make a minor adjustment. He'll have to completely change his hitting approach. That's why I stated that I considered him as 1B candidate in '23 but in '24 how the league has completely figured him out (much like they did with Gallo) So you can throw those '23 stats out the window, it's not going to happen.

& as wrote before Julien isn't good at 2B, defensive stats can't be trusted & they be spun to say anything you want them to say. & it really helps to have Correa & Santana cover for you. When Correa was down it was obvious how bad he was. It's better to have a better 2Bman & have the SS & 1Bman to play their regular defensive positions.

So far I haven't seen him adjusted offensively yet. I hope he can & regain some semblance of power he had in '23 so he can somewhat profile at 1B. But my expectations are not high.

I don't know what 2025 is going to bring. I won't pretend to.

I'd like him to stop looking at strike 3 as much as he does and be a little more aggressive with two strikes. I think that would be helpful but... completely change his approach?

These guys change approaches all the time sometimes within a single AB. However... that looking for the right pitch served him pretty well... he carried us in 2023. It was Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers and Julien who covered for Correa, Buxton and Gallo having down years in 2023. Julien may have struck out 31% of the time but he also led the team in walks... led the team in on base percentage. 2024 on the other hand wasn't good but 2023 wasn't good for Correa and 2024 was very good for Carlos.

Julien is 25 years old making the minimum with 600 MLB AB's under his belt. The Twins have coaches and analytic infrastructure to work on whatever he needs to work on. 

Defense? I'm not going to defend his defense... I have seen better defenders. I get it. I'm certainly not going to spin defensive metrics. That's for other people to do. I'm just trying to say... it's a dial not a switch. 

For those who can't see past defense and claim the world comes to an end with Julien putting a glove on his left hand. I'm just placing him in a defensive pile with others who played the position last year. 

It's a dial... not a switch. Gleyber is in that pile, the Yankees reached the World Series and he just signed a 15 million dollar deal with the Tigers after a .708 OPS season. Gavin Lux was the primary 2B with the Dodgers... They did alright. The Padres did alright when Cronenworth shifted over to 2B from 1B. The Orioles did OK when Westburg shifted to 2B from 3B.  It's a dial... not a switch. 

Correa and Santana covering defensively? I'm going to assume that you mean having good defenders at those two positions can cover for someone not as good at another position. I have to assume that because the thought that Correa helped Julien's range by getting to balls that Julien couldn't get to would be basically impossible. 

If what I assume you meant is what you meant... OK... I won't argue that having a couple of good defenders in the infield... could cover for a weaker defender at another spot. That is true but the same would also have to be true at the plate. In 2023... Julien covered for a sub par Correa at the plate. But in the end... the 2B gets ball hit at him and the SS gets ball hit at him. Range is not going to change that.  

[Cody Pirkl]

On 2/24/2025 at 8:51 AM, DJL44 said:

I disagree that Brooks Lee is likely to be an elite defender at 2B. He's probably going to be good enough, with good hands and an accurate arm, but I don't think he has elite range (not enough foot speed).

That said, I don't see how Julien makes it to the top of the defensive depth chart at 2B above Castro or Lee. I don't see a long or short-term future for Julien at 2B. I think he needs to learn how to play 1B.

If he can't improve his performance against breaking balls, then his career is over. I don't think he's ever going to be as good against breaking pitches as he is against fastballs, but it's possible he makes a marginal improvement this season. If you're going to bet on an offensive profile, his career numbers (.235/.343/.399) are a good place to start. That's good enough to contribute at the MLB level, but not good enough to be an everyday starter.

 

 

For what it's worth, 2B was actually Lee's best position by Outs Above Average last year in a small sample.

I think everything comes down to the bat for Julien. His offensive skillset is much different than Lee's or Castro's, and if he can come anywhere near his rookie production, it's hard to see either of them out hitting him. 

Defense can often be a deal breaker with this Twins regime, but I think they're going to need offense this year. Vazquez stayed, and it sounds like France and Bader are going to play a ton. They may reach a point where their offense is struggling and they have no choice but to play Julien if he's hitting.

[Cody Pirkl]

22 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Ain't happening.  Julien's ultimate problem is dealing with Uncle Charlie.  Wishing upon a Larnach-star isn't a strategy.  The problem has been pointed out to Julien for over a year.  See you in St. Paul, Eddie....

Us as fans may be "wishing" but I can assure you Julien and the Twins have been doing a lot more than that. It's not an easy problem to overcome, but the fact that we just saw Larnach, who's actually a very similar style hitter overcome it has to mean at least something. Larnach had the issue for years as well.