Could Nolan Arenado Staying in St. Louis Shake a Good Twins Trade Target Loose?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Despite trade speculation surrounding the former All-Star third baseman this offseason, St. Louis could enter the season with him on their 26-man roster. If so, could their roster crunch lead to the Twins poaching a hard-hitting left-handed bat?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals trading third baseman Nolan Arenado has felt inevitable since the offseason began a little over three months ago. The organization nearly accomplished the feat in mid-December, agreeing to a trade that would have sent the 33-year-old to the Houston Astros. However, he invoked his no-trade clause, blocking what would have been a blockbuster transaction out of a desire to steer himself to a different destination. Now, Arenado is still a Cardinal, and the probability of him donning their red, white, yellow, and navy blue threads as the 2025 MLB regular season begins is steadily increasing.

On the most recent episode of Seeing Red (a St. Louis Cardinals podcast), co-hosts Bernie Miklasz and Will Leitch dissected the difficult decisions President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office brass would need to steer through if Arenado stayed in St. Louis. In the episode, Miklasz discussed the implications of Arenado potentially staying put, proclaiming, "It means that maybe Thomas Saggese won't make the club out of spring training or would not have much of a role if he does." He continued, "Sure, it means maybe Brendan Donovan will be in left field a lot more than we thought, which means (Lars) Nootbar in center, who knows, more than we thought.

"If anybody, if it hurts anybody, so to speak, with Arenado staying, the guy that affects the most, I think might be (Alec) Burleson, because there goes left field at-bats, there goes a ton of DH at-bats, and, you know, would he be around the club just to kind of back up (Willson) Contreras at first base?" Miklasz cotinued. "I don't know. I think it probably impacts him more than anyone." Evidently, the odd player out of a potential roster crunch in St. Louis could be Alec Burleson. If that becomes the case, the Twins should be proactive in trying to acquire him.

Burleson, 26, jumped onto the scene in 2024 after struggling in his first two seasons with St. Louis, hitting .269/.314/420 with 147 hits, 35 walks, 20 doubles, 21 home runs, and a 104 OPS+ over 595 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter demonstrated a contact-skilled profile, posting a very low 12.8% strikeout rate while hitting the ball hard and spraying it around the field. Burleson did struggle with chasing pitches outside the zone, evidenced by a 34.5% chase rate. However, he broke out with St. Louis last season, blossoming into a more complete hitter with plus power. (Just don't think too much about his home run celebration. HE WAS A DJ IN COLLEGE, OKAY!?)

 Like most left-handed batters, Burleson struggled against same-handed pitching, slashing a neasky .195/.229/.286 over 142 plate appearances. That said, he excelled against right-handed pitching, hitting .292/.341/.464 with 18 home runs over 453 plate appearances. The power-hitting lefty also possesses defensive flexibility, playing the following positions last season:

• Right field - 324 innings
• Left field - 230 1/3 innings
• First base - 117 innings

Interestingly, these three positions are where Minnesota is lacking depth, making a move for Burleson even more enticing. The idea of acquiring another left-handed bat could be perceived as redundant, if you get too hung up on imagining him as an outfielder. That said, the Twins would be wise to use their limited roster flexibility on a position player who excels at hitting, regardless of handedness. Burleson's value resides in the fact that he could become Minnesota's primary designated hitter or first baseman against righty starters.

The club's front office finds themselves caught between a rock and a hard place, needing to improve the roster while adhering to strict payroll limitations. That's no problem here, as Burleson is yet to reach arbitration eligibility and will make only $800,000 next season. He's under team control until the end of the 2028 regular season. Minnesota prides itself on finding creative solutions to improve the team. Again, acquiring Burleson is seemingly contingent on Arenado staying in St. Louis. Still, the Twins would be wise to make a concerted effort to land the cost-controlled, power-hitting left-handed bat.

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[WSoxTerritoryTwinsFan]

Don’t know a ton about Burleson other than rostering him on my fantasy team last year. I can say that he was fantastic for weeks at a time so there’s tons of potential. Just don’t know how another LH outfielder fits on this team. But interesting!

[dxpavelka]

14 minutes ago, WSoxTerritoryTwinsFan said:

Don’t know a ton about Burleson other than rostering him on my fantasy team last year. I can say that he was fantastic for weeks at a time so there’s tons of potential. Just don’t know how another LH outfielder fits on this team. But interesting!

Not to mention another LH hitting OF with a .514 OPS against LHP.  On the other hand, and, yes, I know that an 11 PA sample size is too small to draw solid conclusions from but he DID have a .258 OPS in Target Field.

 

[Riverbrian]

As I read the Arenado staying in St. Louis domino dilemma expressed by Bernie Miklasz. 

I had one thought.  That's a lot being attached to Arenado. That's turning Arenado into a roster construction bottleneck and a cannonball through Cardinal short and long range planning, 

Then I had another thought. They may be struggling to trade Arenado but that still doesn't mean they have to just sit there and allow him to be a cannonball to your hopes and dreams because they couldn't trade him, 

If you want Gorman or Donovan to play 3B... Play Gorman or Donovan at 3B. Easy Peasy. Arenado is reduced to being an expense issue. Being just an expense issue is much better than being an expense and a cannonball through tomorrow.  

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

It would give plenty of fodder for TD, with the prompting of additional "We have too many LH hitting outfielders" articles and comments.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  Well thought out and written.  Just another filler article to take up space.  It just indicates how nothing the Twins off season is.  Just write about things we know aren't going to happen.

[CRF]

Burleson is a nice player, and he's gonna get better. I don't see the Cards trading him anywhere. 

[Mark G]

I love it!  A left handed hitting corner outfielder who doesn't hit left handers well, but is good against right handers.  He can platoon with........um.......he can platoon with........🤔 let me get back to you.  

[Ctwink]

Not sure why anyone would suggest trading for ANOTHER LH outfielder.......................

[LambchoP]

He's obviously not a fit for our OF since we already have similar players in the corners with Larnach and Wallner. Getting a power bat to split time and platoon first base with Miranda though could be a nice fit. Pretty sure with ample at bats this guy would outhit Mickey Gasper or the other minor league nobody we picked up as depth. Trades like this could really upgrade the team. Although the fact he's lefty and the fact that he would improve the first base situation tells me there's no way it'll happen. Maybe if they'll give him to us for Paddack or Vasquez;)

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

As I read the Arenado staying in St. Louis domino dilemma expressed by Bernie Miklasz. 

I had one thought.  That's a lot being attached to Arenado. That's turning Arenado into a roster construction bottleneck and a cannonball through Cardinal short and long range planning, 

Then I had another thought. They may be struggling to trade Arenado but that still doesn't mean they have to just sit there and allow him to be a cannonball to your hopes and dreams because they couldn't trade him, 

If you want Gorman or Donovan to play 3B... Play Gorman or Donovan at 3B. Easy Peasy. Arenado is reduced to being an expense issue. Being just an expense issue is much better than being an expense and a cannonball through tomorrow.  

 

 

Although I agree with that they can play someone other than Arenado, but my guess they wanted to trade him because of the money he makes, not because his production.  His production to money is out of line. He still put up 2.5 bWAR, but when you are making over 20 mil and your team wants to cut payroll that is type of contract that will go. His bWAR was still 3rd on the team. 

It is unlikely they would have a guy that can still put up numbers sit on the bench while making 21 mil this year and 16 and 15 the next couple of years, not to mention the near 50 mil they owe him until he turns 50 years old. 

Although he may just be a money problem, that is a problem for mid payroll teams like Cards. Hard to just eat the money and play someone else, unless he becomes a negative player.  

[thelanges5]

He’s played 250 innings at 1B in the MLB.  He can platoon with Miranda there.  That shores up the first base situation. We still need a right handed corner bat. Maybe we could give Jo Adell a change of scenery?

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  Well thought out and written.  Just another filler article to take up space.  It just indicates how nothing the Twins off season is.  Just write about things we know aren't going to happen.

No doubt. 

At this point of the "do nothing offseason" for the Twins I would honestly be pretty pissed off if they did a trade that cost us one or more better prospects just for the sake of acting like they actually did something to better this team. 

For example, they way everyone was gushing over getting Dylan Cease the last week and a half.  So we send probably 3 high prospects for a guy who plays every 5th day and who, most definitely, will not resign here.  And if we did land him... well then what?  What about all of the other holes that were not addressed?  Can he play 1st base when he's not pitching?  Can he pinch hit against a hard throwing lefty in the 8th inning?? Bringing in Cease at this point would be laughable and would only serve to waste future capital to use for trades when the Twins have new owners.  He wouldn't remotely be enough to move the needle for 2025. 

This season, for all intents and purposes, is already over.  The team didn't make the playoffs last year in a division that has three other teams that did actually improve their teams over the offseason who also all made the playoffs last season.  

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

  Cease at this point would be laughable and would only serve to waste future capital to use for trades when the Twins have new owners.  He wouldn't remotely be enough to move the needle for 2025. 

This season, for all intents and purposes, is already over.  The team didn't make the playoffs last year in a division that has three other teams that did actually improve their teams over the offseason who also all made the playoffs last season.  

It has been a miserable off season  watching other teams add players to try and help their teams  ...

The cease trade doesn't make sense to mortgage the future for one season  , now if they could get him to sign an extension  , that's a different story .. 

You don't trade for cease unless that is the last piece of the puzzle to be contenders , we need more consistency in hitting , better defense  , just plain smarter baseball ..

we have to have a consistent harmony throughout the whole team and we haven't that , so yes the season ahead is not looking good but I will watch and listen to all the games but I'm not spending any money on them , I already passed on twins fest  ( how did attendance turn out for that , no reports on TD that i have read ) ....

Go twins is all I can say , either they tank or either they go win the division , but my gut tells me they finish 3rd or 4th ...

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Although I agree with that they can play someone other than Arenado, but my guess they wanted to trade him because of the money he makes, not because his production.  His production to money is out of line. He still put up 2.5 bWAR, but when you are making over 20 mil and your team wants to cut payroll that is type of contract that will go. His bWAR was still 3rd on the team. 

It is unlikely they would have a guy that can still put up numbers sit on the bench while making 21 mil this year and 16 and 15 the next couple of years, not to mention the near 50 mil they owe him until he turns 50 years old. 

Although he may just be a money problem, that is a problem for mid payroll teams like Cards. Hard to just eat the money and play someone else, unless he becomes a negative player.  

Agree with you completely. I'll add to your thoughts.

You don't want to intentionally depreciate your asset. Trading him would become increasingly difficult if he is consistently bypassed. 

I agree with you 100%

However. The team is obviously trying to go a different direction.

If he impedes that... you have two problems instead of one. All teams have bad money on the books. That's one problem. Letting that bad money stand in your way... that's a second problem. 

 

[saviking]

seriously, you want to trade for ANOTHER left-handed corner outfielder.

[chpettit19]

How good of a defender is he? 104 OPS+ isn't anything to write home about but he'd be strictly platooned here so that'd likely be higher with fewer ABs against lefties. If he's an upgrade defensively at a cOF or 1B spot he could make some sense. The Twins still have at least 1 open lineup spot and they can use it to rotate people through the DH spot so I'm not at all worried about Larnach and Wallner in the corners.

A strict platoon at 1B with Miranda would be a waste of Miranda, though. Don't like that idea at all. But they should be able to easily get all 4 guys in the lineup against righties at this point in time. But Miranda had an .856 OPS against righties last year compared to Burleson's "breakout" .805 OPS against them. Miranda doesn't need a platoon. He's got a better OPS against righties than lefties in his MLB career. I don't get why people are trying to short side platoon Miranda.

[PatPfund]

Interesting players are all over, but I just don't see the fit here. Our cheap, young left-hitting outfielders had MLB 'OPS+'s of 116 (Larnach) and 149 (Wallner) last year with no sign it was a fluke. We have another lefty OF at AAA who is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. And 104 as a breakout doesn't really cut it at 1B.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How good of a defender is he? 104 OPS+ isn't anything to write home about but he'd be strictly platooned here so that'd likely be higher with fewer ABs against lefties. If he's an upgrade defensively at a cOF or 1B spot he could make some sense. The Twins still have at least 1 open lineup spot and they can use it to rotate people through the DH spot so I'm not at all worried about Larnach and Wallner in the corners.

A strict platoon at 1B with Miranda would be a waste of Miranda, though. Don't like that idea at all. But they should be able to easily get all 4 guys in the lineup against righties at this point in time. But Miranda had an .856 OPS against righties last year compared to Burleson's "breakout" .805 OPS against them. Miranda doesn't need a platoon. He's got a better OPS against righties than lefties in his MLB career. I don't get why people are trying to short side platoon Miranda.

I'd take him for one reason and one reason only. 

Adding left handed hitting so the number of left handed hitters on the 26 man exceed what Rocco can put to sleep against left handed pitching. 

If the Twins broke camp with 7 left handed hitters. I'd be just fine with that. 

[arby58]

The issue the article doesn't address is what do the Cardinals want/need that would align with the Twins wants/needs. From looking at the Baseball Trade Values website, they aren't too keen on the Cardinals net assets at either the MLB or MiLB level. It appears starting pitching is an area of need based on their numbers. If so, there is pretty close alignment between the value of Zebby Matthews (15.0) and Burleson (16.5). If the Twins tossed in a lower level prospect (they give Travis Addams a value of 1.4) this would about balance out. Are we willing to give up high-prospect Matthews and another halfway decent one for ANOTHER left handed bat with a fairly pedestrian OPS+? I'm thinking not.

[Finlander]

No. Sorry - useless acquisition for what the team seems to need, for all the reasons in previous posts.

Maybe the plan is to run with what we have for now, while a sale is worked out. Maybe Falvey has some trade templates in place with other teams for discussion at a later date, after the team sale is locked and there is more clarity on any potential payroll adjustments. I hope. But I'm flashing back to Jim Carrey in Dumb & Dumber: "So you're saying there's still a chance?!?"

 

 

[tony&rodney]

A simple no.

[ashbury]

Unplayable against lefties, not a difference maker against righties, meager contribution on defense. Little wonder if he's on the verge of losing his 40-man spot. 

Hard pass.

[Doctor Wu]

Burleson struggled against same-handed pitching, slashing a neasky .195/.229/.286 over 142 plate appearances. 

On to more important matters, is neasky an actual word?

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Burleson struggled against same-handed pitching, slashing a neasky .195/.229/.286 over 142 plate appearances. 

On to more important matters, is neasky an actual word?

Not according to dictionary.com, but it appears that one can make at least 100 words by unscrambling the letters:

https://unscramblex.com/anagram/neasky