Is the Twins' Competitive Window Open Wider Than We Think?

[Matthew Lenz]

'Tis the season where many of the prospect publications update their top 100 lists and team rankings ahead of the upcoming season. Baseball America took it a step further, and named candidates who could be the top prospect a year from now as well as those who could enter the top 100. What does their forecasting tell us about the Minnesota Twins' competitive window?

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

There is a consensus among rankers that Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall are top-100 guys. Baseball America adds Zebby Matthews at No. 73, while most others either have him outside of the top 100 or didn't include him given his accrued service time in 2024. Looking ahead to 2026, BA named Jenkins as a contender to be the top prospect in baseball, as well as Brandon Winokur and Connor Prielipp as guys to watch for in their top-100 list (our own Jamie Cameron would add 2025 IFA signee, Eduardo Beltre, to that list as well, and he came in for a mention on a similar list by Baseball Prospectus).

In short, BA is predicting the Twins to have at least three more players, including two newcomers, on their top 100 a year from now. That's without considering the 2025 MLB Draft, wherein the Twins have three top-55 picks.

If we look back at recent history, the Twins have experienced a changing of the guard in the 2020s, as a number of former prospects have reached the big leagues and many of those have established themselves as regular contributors. That list includes:

• Ryan Jeffers debuting in 2020
• Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, and Trevor Larnach in 2021
• Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jhoan Durán, and José Miranda in 2022
• Edouard Julien in 2023
• Brooks Lee, Michael Helman, Jair Camargo, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and Austin Martin in 2024

Regardless of what you think of those players' level of production, it's a developmental win to have that many players debut and stay at the major-league level. Moreover, that core has changed an organization that consistently lost 90 games in the 2010s to a team consistently competing for a playoff spot in the 2020s. In fact, that young core showed so much promise that the Twins shocked the world—okay, mainly Stateside baseball fans—by signing Carlos Correa not once, but twice. That signing, along with acquiring Pablo López, propelled the young core and the entire organization into their first competitive window since the late 2000s.

As some of these players begin to enter their arbitration years and with the Pohlads implementing a cap ceiling, it's fair to wonder how long this competitive window might remain open. The latter of those two concerns will, hopefully, go away in the coming months, but we need to temper expectations: new ownership doesn't guarantee more spending. To the former concern, prospect development is hard to predict and rarely linear, but Baseball America’s predictions paint a pretty nice picture for the future of Twins baseball. While you can't solely rely on your best prospects to carry your big-league team, multiple publications rank the Twins as one of the best farm systems in baseball. A bevy of nationally unheralded prospects who have produced in the minors are candidates to make debuts in 2025, including guys like Payton Eeles and Andrew Morris. Although it's safer to temper expectations with prospect development, if the 2020-2024 debut classes have shown us anything, it's that the Twins know how to develop their guys.

So while you have a very fair argument to think the “cheap Pohlads” are wasting this competitive window, I’d encourage you to also consider the Twins' latest wave of prospect promotions, along with the up-and-coming group. Pair that optimism with an ownership group who might actually invest in the team, and all of a sudden, the Twins' current competitive window is only in its infancy.

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[Karbo]

Only time will tell about ownership, but some of these guys coming up on rookie deals, should make the payroll a little easier to manage.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have two guys who could drive the team if they were players who posted 150 games per year. Correa and Buxton are both really good but injuries and days off are just a reality for them. Thus the team needs a couple of players to step forward and drive the lineup. Any two of Wallner, Lewis, Rodriguez, Keaschall, and Jenkins could potentially manage that either now or next season (2025-2026). The key will be for at least two to step forward and some others to provide solid play.

As far as windows go, most teams manage to have a few players and some prospects capable of pushing their teams into the playoffs. The question is always health and performance. Especially this time of year fans are feeling pretty good about their team .... for the most part. There are exceptions.

[mikelink45]

It is the transition - can the Twins promote and improve?  Seeing Lee and Lewis regress at the end of the year, Julien regress all year, Wallner having to spend time in AAA, Miranda having a poor ending last year and Jeffers seeming to rise then fall back again makes me worry that we lack the last element = the ability to get the players over the MLB hump and then help them adjust as the league adjusts to them. 

[Brandon]

Wallner was omitted from the list in the article.

after 3 season Ober, Ryan and Lopez are free agents.  Festa will probably replace one of them.  If we replace the other one or two who leave then the competitive window stays open.  Good starting pitching is the key.  Also need to find a good SS to take over for Correa at some point too.  But we already have young offensive players who will be here 4-6 more seasons and more on the way.  
 

In conclusion we will be competitive forever😎

[thelanges5]

Definitely like the direction that we are heading. Front office has done a good job building the farm system and pitching depth. Don’t expect the new owners to go crazy but we should be in the middle or top third of spending not in the bottom third. ⚾️

[old nurse]

The Twins window is this year and next  2027 is a labor contract year. I wouldn’t bet on smooth sailing for that one. 

[old nurse]

Yet another tired payroll complaint. I would hazard a guess that there are accounting things other than depreciation the clubs can use. Depreciation over a 15 year period of a billion or two sale does save a lot of tax money elsewhere. Calvin Griffith was probably the last owner to be living off income from baseball. 

[Danchat]

It's hard to buy into this after the Twins collapsed in 2024 with some obvious flaws in the roster needing to be fixed just for no effort to be made to solve those problems. Yes, the rotation has 3 quality starters but the rotation went off the rails in September due to injury and regression. The bullpen had highs and lows as we saw a gaggle of mediocre relievers get shelled then DFA'd and we're crossing our fingers for over half the pen. And the hitters are a complete mystery box given the need for help at 1B, 2B, and outfield depth. And running back basically the same roster isn't going to help with the durability issues most the players have.

There is legitimate upside to this team, but after watching what this team has accomplished the past 3 seasons, it feels like more of the same.

[gman]

The team has a lot of good players trying to find traction on their careers. I look for Sands, Alcala, SWR, & Festa to do some growing on the pitching side. Also expect Lee, Lewis, Wallner and Miranda to cement their positions on the team.  Along with adding potentially Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Mathews the team should keep adding and growing.

[TheLeviathan]

Wait...when did we actually open that window?

[Matthew Lenz]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Only time will tell about ownership, but some of these guys coming up on rookie deals, should make the payroll a little easier to manage.

Yes, they will but the guys who have been around longer will get more expensive.

[Matthew Lenz]

9 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Wait...when did we actually open that window?

I'm not going to let a month and half of terrible, downright awful baseball takeaway from the rest of the 2024 season. I'm not giving them a moral victory, but they've won the division three times and made the playoffs four times in the last six seasons. 2019 and 2020 didn't have many of the names above, they missed in 2021 and 2022, so I guess the answer to your question is 2023?

[Jocko87]

The whole point is to keep the window open, 24/7 like the 7/11. 

Talk of the window closing is a loser mindset.  Very hard when these things are happening with payroll but just maintaining a top 10-15 payroll and solid farm system can keep the window open regardless of what the Dodgers do.  This organization is well positioned to do just that with a little cash infusion.

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Yet another tired payroll complaint. I would hazard a guess that there are accounting things other than depreciation the clubs can use. Depreciation over a 15 year period of a billion or two sale does save a lot of tax money elsewhere. Calvin Griffith was probably the last owner to be living off income from baseball. 

Huh?

[Matthew Lenz]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Wallner was omitted from the list in the article.

after 3 season Ober, Ryan and Lopez are free agents.  Festa will probably replace one of them.  If we replace the other one or two who leave then the competitive window stays open.  Good starting pitching is the key.  Also need to find a good SS to take over for Correa at some point too.  But we already have young offensive players who will be here 4-6 more seasons and more on the way.  
 

In conclusion we will be competitive forever😎

Ahhh Wallner! I even had a second pair of eyes look at it. Thanks for pointing it out...he's being added now.

[Matthew Lenz]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I think that the Twins are going to need that extended window to get their fans back.  It's good to see good players coming up and in the pipeline.  You need replenishment to keep windows open or at least cracked.

Your comment on winning the fans back is fair and interesting. I think that timeframe could be expedited if the next owner invests in the club.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Twins window is this year and next  2027 is a labor contract year. I wouldn’t bet on smooth sailing for that one. 

This is a good point.  With TV revenue changing dramatically I wouldn’t be surprised if the owners play hardball in the next negotiation.

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Yes, they will but the guys who have been around longer will get more expensive.

They will shed $31.4M in payroll next year (or sooner) between, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Dobnick, and the decrease in Correa’s contract.  This combined with new ownership that will hopefully spend a little more and we will be in pretty good shape.  The young guys and a few prospects like Rodriquez, Matthews, etc will still need to step up but they should be able to put a good product on the field for the next few years.

[IndianaTwin]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They will shed $31.4M in payroll next year (or sooner) between, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Dobnick, and the decrease in Correa’s contract.  This combined with new ownership that will hopefully spend a little more and we will be in pretty good shape.  The young guys and a few prospects like Rodriquez, Matthews, etc will still need to step up but they should be able to put a good product on the field for the next few years.

And if the arb-eligible players show enough this year to eat up most of that $31.4 in increased salaries, that's a good problem to have.

[sweetmusicviola16]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They will shed $31.4M in payroll next year (or sooner) between, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Dobnick, and the decrease in Correa’s contract.  This combined with new ownership that will hopefully spend a little more and we will be in pretty good shape.  The young guys and a few prospects like Rodriquez, Matthews, etc will still need to step up but they should be able to put a good product on the field for the next few years.

If you look though pretty much the entirety of the 31.4 mil will get eaten up by the arbitration cases of some 9 players. Which if the guys are receiving these raises it probably means they have done OK. You also have to hope that someone will step up to replace Castro. Matthews, Raya, Soto, etc should be able to replace Paddack easy enough.  That leaves us with still needing to find a backup C. I also hope that our 1B depth is figured out soon.

[LastOnePicked]

They don't really act like a team in the midst of a competitive window. And honestly, when the chips are down, the don't play like one either. We'll see if that changes, but I don't think they're in any way an improved club over last year, and last year gave them a fourth-place finish.

[RpR]

You are probably correct.😪

[thelanges5]

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If you look though pretty much the entirety of the 31.4 mil will get eaten up by the arbitration cases of some 9 players. Which if the guys are receiving these raises it probably means they have done OK. You also have to hope that someone will step up to replace Castro. Matthews, Raya, Soto, etc should be able to replace Paddack easy enough.  That leaves us with still needing to find a backup C. I also hope that our 1B depth is figured out soon.

I think Camargo and Cartaya battle it out for 2026. Perhaps Keaschall at 1B depending on how he come back from his TJ surgery. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

4 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

I'm not going to let a month and half of terrible, downright awful baseball takeaway from the rest of the 2024 season. I'm not giving them a moral victory, but they've won the division three times and made the playoffs four times in the last six seasons. 2019 and 2020 didn't have many of the names above, they missed in 2021 and 2022, so I guess the answer to your question is 2023?

I would've agreed with 2023 if 2024 had maintained that momentum....but it didn't.  Worst of all....this team is just very same-y.  Especially on offense.  They can't run.  They are really streaky hitters.  Defensively they have some issues.  Their right/left splits and platoons are problematic.  

I would've felt a lot better had Julien not face planted.  If Royce Lewis hadn't showed us more red flags than green ones.  Brooks Lee debuted and killed it.  If Wallner could've stayed up.  If Correa could've stayed on the field.  If we still had hope that "Buxton is an MVP guy" could be real.  It isn't and it won't be ever again.

I also would feel better if there was more hope of rebounds and debuts.  E-Rod is exciting.  But he's the 87th left handed hitting corner outfielder on our roster.  Matched only by the 87 guys who we wish could play 2B or 3B well but pretty much can't.  

I don't feel like any window has been opened yet.  And I won't until I see what core is keeping it open.

[Linus]

Of course the answer is…..it depends.  They have a bunch of youngish players in the bigs and in the minors.  If most succeed than yes the window will stay open.  If theses younger players plateau or regress then the answer is a resounding no.  One concern I have about extending this window is the Twins have no good prospects at catcher, SS and maybe CF depending on how Jenkins develops (I think the guy is going to get huge and will end up in RF; Em Rod seems stretched to be a plus CF)  These are the three most important spots on the field and the Twins will have to bring that in from outside the org.

[sweetmusicviola16]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

Of course the answer is…..it depends.  They have a bunch of youngish players in the bigs and in the minors.  If most succeed than yes the window will stay open.  If theses younger players plateau or regress then the answer is a resounding no.  One concern I have about extending this window is the Twins have no good prospects at catcher, SS and maybe CF depending on how Jenkins develops (I think the guy is going to get huge and will end up in RF; Em Rod seems stretched to be a plus CF)  These are the three most important spots on the field and the Twins will have to bring that in from outside the org.

Danny De Andrade still looks like a SS. But so much can happen to a player at A ball between now and then.

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Danny De Andrade still looks like a SS. But so much can happen to a player at A ball between now and then.

Yep thought of him but I don’t consider him a top prospect 

[sweetmusicviola16]

idk, I kept my windows closed this past couple of weeks. Would've froze my *** off if I hadn't and the pipes would have frozen. Frozen pipes reminds me a bit of Zoll's first off season as GM.

[Joe A. Preusser]

The pipeline is real.  Pitching coming in waves.  We have more hitters (mostly LH) than we know what to do with.  Keep it rolling.  Especially X100 the pitching. 

Trades and opportunities will sort themselves out.  Keep the forward progress moving.