The Twins Have a First Base Problem

[LambchoP]

The best solution would be to sign a power hitting first baseman to a couple year contract, but we know that's not happening. We have a few big leaguers who could fight for the job. At this point I have almost no faith in Kiriloff or Julien. That leaves Miranda, who is much better at third base. If Lewis can find his power stroke again and learn first base, it'd probably be the best for the team. We could have better defenders at third with Miranda or Lee and playing first would probably help Lewis stay healthier. As for minor leaguers, maybe see if Severino can hit up in the show, he's got the prototypical 1b power. Maybe Keaschal can play there if he's not needed at second base. Will be interesting to see who gets the job. My guess is it will be a competition in spring training between AK, Julien, Miranda and a few minor leaguers. Or ownership just says screw it and signs Alonso or Goldschmidt lol 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm curious what Lee will look like in the spring. Last spring he had a herniated disc and back spasms, and then when he did come back in August eventually he had to have cortisone shots in his shoulder for some issues there too.

A healthy Brooks Lee is a better defender than the one you describe (at least in my opinion.)

Brooks Lee has always been scouted as a poor athlete. Even when the Twins drafted him. He looks polished in his instincts, movement, and balance which could serve him well enough to hold down 2B or 3B full time.

Lee is a lot like the now 34 year old Kyle Farmer from a physical skills standpoint. Farmer managed to even handle SS because he was incredibly reliable at the position in 2021. If Lee was almost perfect in the field, he could handle SS.

[tony&rodney]

The idea of rostering Miranda and Kirilloff has value but counting on them to be starters is not a solid plan for a winning season. I would rather be pleasantly surprised by both of them becoming outstanding hitters as DHs and role players rather than entering the season relying on them.

The Twins have their first baseman on the roster already and he has some promise on both side of the ball if he works at it. Royce Lewis is my first baseman unless he can return a pitcher like Logan Gilbert. Lewis is too stiff to play the other infield positions and his arm is erratic. Yes, he could work to improve but I'm more interested in starting the season with someone who can make the plays behind the pitchers. The pitchers suffered enough last season with defenders who couldn't quite get to this ground ball or that pop up. It is time to use guys who convert the outs into outs.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd say the Twins just have a middle-of-the-order-bat problem, but 1st and/or DH are places they could definitely use to fill that hole. The problem is they don't have any money to spend so it's really just about finding whatever offense they already have in house or making trades to try to improve the lineup. I hope they don't sell too much of the future, but there could be some savvy trades to be made.

The Twins have plenty of guys who lack athleticism who they could hand 1B gloves tomorrow and tell them to get to work so I'd prefer their additions be at other positions if they're bringing guys in. Don't like the idea of moving Wallner there and taking away his best defensive asset in his arm. But Larnach could make sense. I'd prefer they just teach Lewis to throw a baseball instead of putting one of their best athletes at 1B, but if he can't figure out his throwing motion then he'd be an option. Miranda and Kirilloff are options, but all 3 of those guys (actually all 4 with Larnach included) have had health problems most, or all, of their careers.

The Twins have a first base problem. But mostly they have a health and talent problem. Those are all connected, but the health problem is the biggest problem, and it can no longer be looked at or treated as a "bad luck" problem. You've built a roster of injury prone guys or you've built a training and rest and rehab program that leads to increased injuries. Either way it's hurting your performance. The Twins have some guys in house they can move to 1B. In fact, they have a lot of guys in house who's best position probably is 1B. The problem is they lack guys who can fill the positions they're currently in. Get healthy, talented players and 1B will figure itself out.

Unfortunately chpetitt, this health problem makes every position a question mark right now. Correa, Buxton and Lewis are great talents. But we celebrate when we get a half of a season out of them combined it seems. Other positions guys don't perform with the bat or the glove. Other positions guys can't hit the opposite side pitcher for squat. I would like to say we have 2 or 3 positions without uncertainty, but I can't. 

[mrcharlie]

3 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Either Wallner or Larnach needs to bring a first baseman's mitt to spring training.

Wallner has the arm to be effective in the outfield.  Larnach can move around between OF, 1st and DH.  That said; I don't understand the quick judgement that Santana is not a viable candidate to come back.  He did enough to earn that option in 2025. He can be a solid defender and mentor to the young players.  All this chatter about kiraloff and Miranda solves nothing.  Both players have negatives I believe that only continues to create problems... K's trust with coaches and Miranda's one dimensional offense.  I view them as good candidates for trade.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

This is something I considered going into a deeper discussion on. It seems like the position has been dropping off in recent years, perhaps because big plodding mashers just don’t cut it anymore for some reason or another. It’s reflected in the wRC+ for the position, in that 20 years ago 1st baseman were around 15-20% better hitters than league average but recently it’s more in the 107-115 range.

That’s part of the reason I focused on the Twins’ rank at the position rather than the raw numbers. It’s understandable that not every team will have a guy who’s 2004 Shawn Green (126 wRC+, 10th among first basemen, minimum 200 PA) in modern baseball. But the Twins have gone 13 years without cracking the top 10, and their first basemen have tended to be more or less merely slightly above league-average hitters in their best years

This year the league has the book out on the HR-focused hitter (in contrast to line drive hitters) this season a decline of 415 HRs & 1B is loaded with this type of hitter thus we see a big drop off in production this season. IMO we'll continue to see a drop off in production at 1B throughout the league for years. The Twins have focused on this type of hitters in the draft & development for years & it's funny that those hitters never made to the MLB. Now that the book is out, the Twins have to change their focus on hitters & how to develop them. 

If Falvey had the money he would have spent it on MAT & Rhys Hoskins. Fortunately, we didn't have the money. From now on we need to forget about this type of hitter. 

[CRF]

For some reason, I've always thought that Larnach was a guy who should/could be switched over to 1B. Now would be the perfect time to give it a try. 

[Fatbat]

The Twins have a blank slate at 1st base right now. Every possible player should be considered but not every player. We have a great opportunity to put a young player at 1B and benefit from the correct decision.  Who that is, I hope the FO figures it out soon. 

[mrcharlie]

The premiss of the article relates to the historical lack of offense out of 1st base.  In 2024 Santana produced better than many other Twins while also doing Gold Glove work in the field.  Yes, he did not provide the numbers of Morneau or Hrbek but few players can do that across MLB today.  The Twins have many other more pressing issues to consider.  Figure out the bullpen, develop a training program to keep players on the field, become more athletic via trade and promotion of prospects would be my priorities.

[The Great Hambino]

43 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

Wallner has the arm to be effective in the outfield.  Larnach can move around between OF, 1st and DH.  That said; I don't understand the quick judgement that Santana is not a viable candidate to come back.  He did enough to earn that option in 2025. He can be a solid defender and mentor to the young players.  All this chatter about kiraloff and Miranda solves nothing.  Both players have negatives I believe that only continues to create problems... K's trust with coaches and Miranda's one dimensional offense.  I view them as good candidates for trade.

Re: Santana,

To me it's not a question of whether he did enough to justify his contract - he certainly did, and even if you projected a slight decline as he slides a year further down the aging curve, it's not unreasonable to think he can provide value in 2025.   It's a question of whether they can be the highest bidder for his services.  It just takes one team with deeper pockets and use for an above-average switch-hitting bat and plus glove at first (say, the Mets if they don't get Alonso to come back) to take the decision out of the Twins' hands.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

That leaves Miranda, who is much better at third base. If Lewis can find his power stroke again and learn first base, it'd probably be the best for the team. We could have better defenders at third with Miranda or Lee and playing first would probably help Lewis stay healthier. 

No, Miranda grades out much better defensively at 1B than he does at 3B and Lewis grades better than Miranda at 3B. Your idea would downgrade the defense at both positions compared to playing Lewis at 3B and Miranda at 1B.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Buck was an awful DH, but has been hampered by leg injuries. Could moving to first keep his head in the game and his bat in the lineup?

[RpR]

34 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Buck was an awful DH, but has been hampered by leg injuries. Could moving to first keep his head in the game and his bat in the lineup?

For heaven's sake - NO!

[RpR]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, Miranda grades out much better defensively at 1B than he does at 3B and Lewis grades better than Miranda at 3B. Your idea would downgrade the defense at both positions compared to playing Lewis at 3B and Miranda at 1B.

Miranda at 3rd base this year improved slightly; Lewis was lousy, just like his bat.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, RpR said:

Miranda at 3rd base this year improved slightly; Lewis was lousy, just like his bat.

Miranda improved at 1B to mediocre but his success rate at 3B was just as poor as 2023.

Jose Miranda Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Lewis has the better arm and range. He's clearly better than Miranda at 3B.

Royce Lewis Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

44 minutes ago, RpR said:

For heaven's sake - NO!

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Miranda improved at 1B to mediocre but his success rate at 3B was just as poor as 2023.

Jose Miranda Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Lewis has the better arm and range. He's clearly better than Miranda at 3B.

Royce Lewis Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Last year he was but not this year.

[KBJ1]

Can't say I'm  at all excited about a Lee/julien middle infield if Correra goes down. Santana saved our butt last year, but likely won't  be back. Bringd us back to the hoped for miranda/Kiriloff platoon, which Kiriloff has majorly disappointed at. Still need a RH bat for LF and a SP. Maybe Jax as SP?

Then we would still need bullpen help - a lot of it - but at least bullpen pitchers are much cheaper than quality starters.

Same problems as last year, only maybe with Margot, Santana & Kepler off the books, they can sign someone of note.

My preference would be a Gurriel type for Lf, make Jax a SP and sign 3 good bullpen guys. Cheapest route.

[DocBauer]

I've been harping on this for a couple weeks now. Figuring out 1B is one of the 3 biggest holes I see on the roster currently. There's only a couple guys in FA that could provide a quality solution there, but doubt the Twins are going to spend any major $ this offseason, and I sure don't want them to gut the roster to add a 1B. They'd be much more likely to trade a prospect...or two...in a deal for a young 1B that's cost controlled for a few years. But shouldn't you be able to fill 1B internally rather than trade young prospects to do so??

With all due respect to Santana, he surprised me greatly with how well he produced this season, overall. And while none of his numbers were exactly great, and he's simply not the player he was in his youth, he was a solid contributor all but the first month of the season. And the defense was as good as advertised. And I wouldn't object very strongly if the Twins brought him back for another season. BUT, after 3 poor seasons he had a bit of a renaissance in 2023, and maintained that in 2024 for the Twins. Can we really expect/hope for a THIRD season in a row of his recent caliber of play at age 39yo? 

I'm hoping the Twins can afford to bring back Kirilloff and his remaining option back for another shot at being hopefully healthy for a full season for once. That's a lot of HOPE! But I'd rather give him one more shot rather than move on a year too soon. Frankly, I have my doubts he's going to be part of the solution here, but again, I'd like to give it a shot. I think Miranda and Julien are the best in house options at this point. Miranda was outstanding last year before the back issue. Can he stay healthy for a full season? If so, he's a viable part of the 1B situation. Despite a really poor 2024 from Julien, I still believe there's a good hitter in there. He was excellent in the minors, and really good in his rookie season with the Twins. I'm betting the one horrendous season is the outlier at this point. If I'm right, he and Miranda are going to spend a lot of time at 1B and DH and this whole OP becomes a pretty moot point. 

RE: Royce Lewis, I have no issues with his defense at 3B most days. And I think he's only going to get better. I've never been aware of any issues throwing the ball until last year, so I'd like to believe it was a glitch and he'll iron that part of his game out. I do think Lee is every bit as good, or better, at 3B as Lewis is. If Lee is 100% and is hitting the way we all hope, and the way he was mashing at AAA last year, I think a viable argument can be made to put him at 3B and move Lewis to 1B. That ISN'T some kind of punishment for Lewis. It means Lee is as good or better at 3B, and Lewis has the tools to be an excellent defensive 1B to go along with a potentially awesome bat. 

And who says you can't have a good athlete at 1B? You want as many good athletes as you can get, and put your best players/bats on the filed and in the lineup on a daily basis. I've never understood the thought that a good athlete was "wasted" by playing 1B, or corner OF. I mean, if E Rodriguez is a legitimate CF but Buxton is just better, and ER moves to a corner spot, is he really being "wasted" there? So why not Keaschall at 1B at some point in 2025? He played there some last season, mostly due to his ailing shoulder, and is big enough for the spot, and a fine athlete. Why not him at 1B? Just because he can play INF and OF doesn't mean he'd be wasted as a potentially fine 1B with a great offensive game.

 

 

[USAFChief]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd say the Twins just have a middle-of-the-order-bat problem, but 1st and/or DH are places they could definitely use to fill that hole.

Bingo.

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d say that brought a playoff series win no?

That had nothing to do with the collapse at the end of this season. 

just said it did nothing to improve the team.  prove me wrong

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m a proponent of Lee at 3B & Lewis at 1B. Problem is they still have no solid proof that Lee will hit enough after seeing ‘24……,& Julien doesn’t give a warm and fuzzy feeling on offense nor defense.

My assumption is that unless Lee is tearing cover off the ball in Spring, he starts out at AAA. Julien is a long-shot at 2B w/o an offensive resurgence. Seems until Keaschall or someone can solve 2B issues, Castro will be the central figure there daily.

Lee - Correa - Julien/Keaschall - Lewis has nice “potential” as a unit. Castro & Miranda for depth………guys gotta hit though or defensive alignment is moot.

Lee better hit from the first time he picks up a bat or the Larnach / Kirilloff comparisons start soon and feel all to real.

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have tremendous potential at 1B in-house, so again it doesn't make sense to go outside, especially with the salary crunch. 1st we have Miranda & Kiriloff, both profile well there, the only problem is injuries. If allowed to be focused at 1B, that'd help the process of recovery from surgeries & improve their defense. We have Severino on the 40-man, McCusker or someone like Lewis that might be transferred from 3B.

I was a big advocate of trading Julien. Not because I didn't like him but because FO wasn't going to play him at 1B, his future wasn't 2B, his trade value peaked & we had big needs to be filled. Now the league has the book on him, they have taken away his HR edge & he'll be a SO king unless he adjusts totally to a different approach. Although his range has improved at 2B, his stats have dipped because he's not making the plays. He has always been low on the 2B totem pole but now it's obvious even to his fans. Julien should have been traded last season at a high trade price but now he no longer profiles well at 1B because his HR edge has been taken away & it's more obvious to most that he shouldn't be considered at 2B. He's no longer should be considered as part of the Twins' future & should be traded while he still has some hype value.

I really have great expectations for both Miranda & Kiriloff if finally given the opportunity to be the mainstay at 1B. Don't trade either of them until then & don't try to fill 1B again outside the organization.

Potential is a nice word.  What it really means is unfulfilled potential.  Translation-failure.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Potential is a nice word.  What it really means is unfulfilled potential.  Translation-failure.

No friend, as I stated in my original statement. Miranda & Kiriloff's potential has proven itself over & over again when healthy. 1B is a good place to recover from their surgeries because there's less moving around & less arm action to limit soft tissue injuries that accompany surgeries. Keep them at 1B so they can fulfill their potential. That's contrary to social media hype but it's the true translation.

[TopGunn#22]

bean, glad you clarified why Lewis was looking like a 45 year old.  I'm 66, just retired and finally, after a 20 year absence returned to playing slow pitch softball after having played fast pitch until I was 46 years old.

I strained a hip abductor and it's been SO SLOW to heal.  I makes it very painful to run.  You CAN run, you just can't run very fast because the abductor just won't let you.  I stretch it 2 times a day, but I've been told I just need to rest it.

The plan is to do no running for October, November, December (just take batting practice those months) and then in January see how it feels.  I didn't realize that a hip abductor was part of the laundry list of injuries Lewis was suffering from.  I now have newfound respect for what he was battling through.  They say it's the biggest muscle in the body and a strain is a BEAST to deal with. 

There are myriad possibilities of what the Twins can do this off season.  Trades, FA acquisitions, promoting some guys, cutting or releasing others.  A lot of this won't matter if the Twins don't have the Royce Lewis of 2023 or at least the one that was playing at an All Star level before the injuries started piling up.

We are just a different team when Lewis is hitting cleanup and driving in runs.  Without him, or if he's severely limited like he was down the stretch, we're just not as good as Cleveland, Kansas City or Detroit.  We need "Our Guy" back and healthy.  

[mikelink45]

On 10/18/2024 at 8:43 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Agree, I am all for giving another 27 year old minor league player a shot, It usually works.

 

Sometimes it does - We have given a lot of older players a chance - 27 is actually peak performance age.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

just said it did nothing to improve the team.  prove me wrong

Lopez had a down year compared to 2023 but still had 3.6 war.

Arraez had 1.1 war and a .739 ops, along with a 109 rc+. All perfectly ok numbers.
 

After their poor start to the year, they played at a 100 win pace from the end of April through the early part of August. Then the team forgot how to hit in any sensible way. That is still mind boggling to me.

Lopez makes the team better. 

 

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

No friend, as I stated in my original statement. Miranda & Kiriloff's potential has proven itself over & over again when healthy. 1B is a good place to recover from their surgeries because there's less moving around & less arm action to limit soft tissue injuries that accompany surgeries. Keep them at 1B so they can fulfill their potential. That's contrary to social media hype but it's the true translation.

relying of potential like that of Miranda and Kiriloff is how we got tee times in October.

[tony&rodney]

It is interesting to read how people view the possibilities for first base for next season. Seems like both of Miranda and Kirilloff could be good at the plate but it is generally agreed that they are less than stellar with a fielding glove on their hand. Something tells me that the Twins DFA Kirilloff, yet I'm in favor of using the duo as pinch hitters and at DH, with only occasional time in the field until they show some improvement. Royce Lewis is my first base guy. It is his best opportunity to stay healthy, get his bat going, and make a case for a larger salary in the future. With some work, Lewis could be a decent fielder at first base. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lopez had a down year compared to 2023 but still had 3.6 war.

Arraez had 1.1 war and a .739 ops, along with a 109 rc+. All perfectly ok numbers.
 

After their poor start to the year, they played at a 100 win pace from the end of April through the early part of August. Then the team forgot how to hit in any sensible way. That is still mind boggling to me.

Lopez makes the team better. 

 

I fear that when I used the phrase "most entertaining Twins hitter in a decade" you thought I meant Arraez.  Partially my fault since I misspoke.  I should have said generation not decade.  Trust me Arraez, while a very good hitter, is NOT the Twins 1B that you had to stop whatever you were doing whenever he went to the plate just to make sure you didn't miss something.