The Twins Have a First Base Problem

[Doctor Gast]

24 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

relying of potential like that of Miranda and Kiriloff is how we got tee times in October.

Not relying on their potential at 1B is part of the reason why the Twins are not in the playoffs.

[mrcharlie]

21 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Buck was an awful DH, but has been hampered by leg injuries. Could moving to first keep his head in the game and his bat in the lineup?

I floated this idea two seasons ago with the same response from readers.  It seems readers believe, like BB, that his place is in CF. PERIOD.  That view is I believe is contrary to team play.  Given that Correa, for one example, declared, "This is Buck's team."; says a lot to me.  A team lead by a 'me first' personality has one big hurdle to overcome before they find long term success.  

[Finlander]

Lewis balked at a move to 2B, so I doubt he'd agree to play 1B.

As much as I'd love to see MN make a deal with TB for Yandy Diaz (they have talented youngsters coming up), or try a rare in-division change of scenery deal with Chicago for Vaughn (maybe based around Julien/Kirilloff - WSox have been overly righthanded in recent years), it won't happen because of the budget issues.

So I'd give Miranda first shot. If he's healthy, he'll hit. His lost 2023 was due to fighting through his injury. He did slump at the end of last year too, but the entire team seemed to slump, maybe not coincidentally after the non-action at the trade deadline, so it's not all on him despite the back issue. Why posters keep mentioning platoon options is beyond me too, as Miranda actually hits righties just fine.

Larnach might be a fit there too. He has the bat and the build for it. Might be his best path to more playing time. He's historically had problems with lefties and breaking pitches, but he looked like he improved a bit, at least with hitting the offspeed stuff. It'll be interesting to see how the gloves get shuffled in spring training.

Rooker's bat would sure play well there.

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, Finlander said:

Lewis balked at a move to 2B, so I doubt he'd agree to play 1B.

 

I also read that Lewis was less than enthusiastic about playing second base. However, this may have due to his injuries. Second base requires more movement than third base and his body was not up to it.

I can appreciate that Royce Lewis still has the tools to be a productive MLB hitter and he really seems like he would like to be a star. I hope he reaches his goals. I have watched Lewis play quite a bit over the last several years. Yes, he has had debilitating injuries that have clouded his performance and other such reasonable excuses. However, Royce has become a very big dude and his flexibility, reflexes, and speed will not be returning to 2020 Royce.

The Twins need to move past statues as infielders. I'm a little frustrated watching Julien, Martin, Farmer, Lewis, Miranda, and Kirilloff types turn a  ground ball into a base hit. I admit that my patience has been stretched.  It may be too early to judge Brooks Lee and Willi Castro is a good utility player. Lewis has a chance to develop as a first baseman and free up the bat to play every day. 

Certainly, the Twins should be having these conversations and many more internally and with their players too. Falvey is on the clock. No amount of crying over spilled milk (budget) will matter if the Twins repeat their deserved fourth place AL Central position of this past season. I'm not interested in rolling it back again and hoping for good luck for the Twins and bad luck for all of Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City in 2025. I'm looking for proactive moves that push the team forward in positive ways. If Royce Lewis is to be on the team next year, he fits best at first base imho.

[gmwannabe]

Ryan Mountcastle from the O's for prospects. Paddocks $7.5 million to pay for it. 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Not relying on their potential at 1B is part of the reason why the Twins are not in the playoffs.

Actually the veteran bargain basement guy at 1B was a big reason they DID make the playoffs in 2023

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually the veteran bargain basement guy at 1B was a big reason they DID make the playoffs in 2023

True, the chemistry was much better in '23

[TwinsDr2021]

On 10/19/2024 at 8:32 AM, mikelink45 said:

 

Sometimes it does - We have given a lot of older players a chance - 27 is actually peak performance age.

OK, name a handful of players that debut at 27 and turn in full time starters?

[William K Johnson]

On 10/18/2024 at 9:17 AM, rv78 said:

With the departures of Kepler and Margot they'll both be needed in the outfield. 

Lewis will be in left, which frees up one of them for first.

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

True, the chemistry was much better in '23

I don't often admit that I'm wrong.  (I'm not often wrong) But in mid-May when Solano had 5 RBI I laid into the team for signing  him.  But from almost that immediate moment until the end of the season he carried them and they don't even sniff the playoffs without him.  Felt like Santana was going to do the same this year.  He faltered (offensively) down the stretch.  We'll miss his defense next year.  And Kepler's.  Built in excuses for next year.  We'll get some ******** (from fans as well as the team) about not being able to justify paying for that defense but then hear excuses about not having it.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

OK, name a handful of players that debut at 27 and turn in full time starters?

If you guys are talking about Carson McCusker, he is 26.

Read this: https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/carson-mccuskers-2024-season-is-defying-everyones-expectations/

Payton Eeles and Carson McCusker were two of the more interesting players in the Twins minor league system this past season and certainly among the top five most exciting to watch. No reason to be skeptical of talent just because it was bypassed for reasons beyond their control: one player is seen as too short and the other as too tall.

If you are talking about someone else ..... never mind, lol.

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If you guys are talking about Carson McCusker, he is 26.

Read this: https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/carson-mccuskers-2024-season-is-defying-everyones-expectations/

Payton Eeles and Carson McCusker were two of the more interesting players in the Twins minor league system this past season and certainly among the top five most exciting to watch. No reason to be skeptical of talent just because it was bypassed for reasons beyond their control: one player is seen as too short and the other as too tall.

If you are talking about someone else ..... never mind, lol.

McCusker might be 26 but IF he hits the bigs it probably won't be until after he turns 27.

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

McCusker might be 26 but IF he hits the bigs it probably won't be until after he turns 27.

 

.... and a year later he turns 28. The Twins need players, age shouldn't be an issue. I don't know if McCusker is actually the guy the franchise is looking for but there isn't any reason the Twins shouldn't be giving him a long look in Spring Training. McCusker was quite impressive last season. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

.... and a year later he turns 28. The Twins need players, age shouldn't be an issue. I don't know if McCusker is actually the guy the franchise is looking for but there isn't any reason the Twins shouldn't be giving him a long look in Spring Training. McCusker was quite impressive last season. 

I didn't say it did.  Was merely responding to you responding to someone else saying something about guys debuting at 27 by saying he was only 26 and I pointed out that by the time he debuted he would probably be  27.  Actually there IS empirical evidence about players who debut older don't last as long in the big leagues.  But yes, I believe that if he's the best guy for the position in the Spring, he should be the starter.  However, I would expect that to be highly unlikely.  Truth be told I'm not sure that top 5 in strikeouts in Texas League fits as "impressive."

 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If you guys are talking about Carson McCusker, he is 26.

Read this: https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/carson-mccuskers-2024-season-is-defying-everyones-expectations/

Payton Eeles and Carson McCusker were two of the more interesting players in the Twins minor league system this past season and certainly among the top five most exciting to watch. No reason to be skeptical of talent just because it was bypassed for reasons beyond their control: one player is seen as too short and the other as too tall.

If you are talking about someone else ..... never mind, lol.

He turns 27 May 22 and only has 91 plate appearances in AAA, so it is very unlikely he is on the Twins in the first couple of months of the season. I will ask the same question how may guys that debut at this age (Late 26 or age 27) turn into impact full players? And like DX said above there is empirical evidence that says they won't, yes even after all the wishing and hoping from Twins fans that our prospects are the exception to the rule, not the rule.

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

OK, name a handful of players that debut at 27 and turn in full time starters?

Not many. 

Do they have to turn into a full time starters? Can they just turn into David Fry? Actually... can they just do better than Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer or Cristian Vazquez did last year. 3 players who kept a roster spot all season long.

The Twins committed 1,440 AB's to players who performed under .655 OPS for the year. 

Right now... Michael Helman is listed on the 26 man roster on roster resource. Does anybody really expect the 28 year old Helman to be on the 26 man roster opening day?

I expect them to pay 4 million to a 30 year old Manuel Margot type instead. I expect players like Alex Verdugo and Alex Kirilloff to get chance after chance instead. 

Now I understand that the front office is supposed to know that Helman could never out perform Manuel Margot. They may be right. However... if they do indeed know these things. How did we end up with 1,440 AB's from players under .655 OPS. If they are that precise with their knowledge... they must have known that those players would OPS under .655 OPS for 1,440 AB's or so... and they rostered them anyway.

If front offices know these things. How did the Mets choose Brett Baty over Mark Vientos? 

I don't know what a 28 year old Michael Helmen will do in the majors if given a chance. I make no claims. However... I am pretty sure that he won't be given a chance. Someone like Travis Jankowski will take that opportunity away from him. 

The end result of this sort of thing. Not many is the answer to your question. 

 

[tony&rodney]

I am just wondering how many times people have watched McCusker play? If you haven't watched him on numerous occasions you are not familiar with his skill set. His age is totally irrelevant. In fact, one could see his age as a plus because his maturity is something the Twins need on the roster.

We know how reticent the Twins are to using position players within their organization who were "finds" or drafted in the lower rounds. This is not true in their view of pitchers. Rolling out the retreads and high draft choices who are less athletic than McCusker or Eeles is a sure recipe for a repeat of 2024. Change needs to happen. If the Twins are not going make several trades, they need to find other ways to infuse the team with talent. All I expect is that the guys mentioned receive the same shot as the retreads already on the 40 person roster. 

[TopGunn#22]

All great points Riverbrian.  This is part of the frustration of baseball.  I can see the benefit of bringing in a guy like Jose Iglesias to be a 2B/SS kind of guy.  Last season in 291 AB's he hit .337 with an OBP of .381, a SLG of .448 for an OPS of .830.  In 2022 with Colorado in 467 AB's he hit.292 an OB% of .328 a SLG of..380 and an OPS of .708.  He is an exceptionally good glove man.  He's basically Luis Arraez "lite" with a MUCH better glove.

These kind of guys have value.  They are not impactful, but they don't hurt you a lot either.  Rookies are unproven and "unknown" quantities.  That describes guys like Kiersey and Helman.  It's OK to have a couple of Kiersey's and Iglesias's on a team.  You just can't have too many of either in any given area or position.

Case in point:  The Twins rotation down the stretch.  Very few teams in the history of baseball make the post season with THREE rookies in their starting rotation.  You can have a really GOOD rookie (Mark Fidrych, Fernando Valenzuela, Doc Gooden) but you can't have THREE of them, even if one of them is Doc Gooden or Fernando.  Each of our rookie pitchers had their ups and downs, but there were predictably more downs than ups in the final month of the season.  Add to that an overworked and too often under performing bullpen and it was a recipe for the eventual disaster.

Having Lopez, Ryan and Ober in the rotation (and hopefully all healthy) brings that "2nd Year" SP count down to just 2.  But having another veteran arm in the rotation for depth (Griffin Jax, FA Pitcher?) would give the Twins a little longer runway.  It's easier to add an impactful BP arm than a rotation arm, so if Jax DID move to the rotation Varland and a FA bullpen guy could fill the hole left by Jax.

Most of what Riverbrian talked about was lineup/position players we wasted AB's on.  Not the rotation or the bullpen.  But regardless of who owns the team, the FO will need to make some trades to re-balance the roster.  They may need to initiate some position changes to re-balance the roster.  They need a little more experience in their rotation and a little more "stuff" in their bullpen.  They need a little more speed in the lineup but also less strikeouts and more bat to ball contact.  

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

regardless of who owns the team, the FO will need to make some trades to re-balance the roster.  They may need to initiate some position changes to re-balance the roster.  They need a little more experience in their rotation and a little more "stuff" in their bullpen.  They need a little more speed in the lineup but also less strikeouts and more bat to ball contact.  

Yes, more "stuff" in the pen and better team speed, but I'm focused on defense. Watching the Twins in the field was often painful. My offseason plans involve searching for paths to improving the defense behind our pitching staff. I'm actually less concerned with the pitching than I am with the gloves on the statues behind the guys on the mound. Of course, it will be impossible to make too many changes as a matter of reality. Still there are changes that can be made. The unknown is how other teams value players within the Twins organization and whether mutually beneficial trades can be completed.

[RpR]

On 10/19/2024 at 5:32 AM, Doctor Gast said:

No friend, as I stated in my original statement. Miranda & Kiriloff's potential has proven itself over & over again when healthy. 1B is a good place to recover from their surgeries because there's less moving around & less arm action to limit soft tissue injuries that accompany surgeries. Keep them at 1B so they can fulfill their potential. That's contrary to social media hype but it's the true translation.

Yep, Kirilloff is SO good, the Twins FO went shopping for a true professional First Base player.

Yep, again, put poorly functioning players at First Base so opposing teams can tell their players to hit is towards First or Third where the Twins defense is a mirage.👍

[ashbury]

On 10/18/2024 at 11:30 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Buck was an awful DH, but has been hampered by leg injuries. Could moving to first keep his head in the game and his bat in the lineup?

I think it's the other way around.  The lesson I took from 2023 was that if Byron isn't healthy enough to roam CF, he won't hit well either.  Rest him or put him on IL.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

I think it's the other way around.  The lesson I took from 2023 was that if Byron isn't healthy enough to roam CF, he won't hit well either.  Rest him or put him on IL.

Healthy enough to play CF isn’t mutually exclusive to playing 1B.

[mikelink45]

On 10/20/2024 at 10:02 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

OK, name a handful of players that debut at 27 and turn in full time starters?

I don't have time to go into all of them right now. I'm up in Gaspe Quebec. So how about just two Hall of famers. Ichiro and Earl Averill. 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Healthy enough to play CF isn’t mutually exclusive to playing 1B.

And it depends on the injury, etc etc.  My reply was brief and the truth is complex.  In 2023 we knew about the knee, in 2024 there was the hip and I forget what else.  If those body parts impede the swing, 2023 just serves as a cautionary example - the details have to be left to those close to the situation.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't have time to go into all of them right now. I'm up in Gaspe Quebec. So how about just two Hall of famers. Ichiro and Earl Averill. 

So a guy from 60 years ago and a guy from Japan (I said not guys from Cuba or Japan) but there are better more recent examples like Merrifield but they are very rare, so to expect any of the Twins guys do it is a fools errand and that is the reason most teams actually trying to win don't count on guys like that for anything but injury replacement or bench players.

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So a guy from 60 years ago and a guy from Japan (I said not guys from Cuba or Japan) but there are better more recent examples like Merrifield but they are very rare, so to expect any of the Twins guys do it is a fools errand and that is the reason most teams actually trying to win don't count on guys like that for anything but injury replacement or bench players.

Sorry but I'm traveling and I haven't got time to go further. Now with what the point is I don't care what age somebody is. If they can fill in for a year or two use them. They don't have to go over the Hall of Fame. But last year we went for a 38-year-old for the position. So why not a 27-year-old?