Has Edouard Julien Played His Way Out of the Twins' Future Plans?

[Eric Blonigen]

One young Twins infielder came back from the brink of organizational disinterest this season. Asking it to happen again next year seems like a tall order.

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Edouard Julien’s 2024 season has not gone how he, the Twins, or fans expected. Sent down twice this season, his current stint on the major-league roster started Aug. 15, and the results haven’t been pretty. He’s played in just one game over the past 10 days, evoking the question: What should fans make of his usage and results, and does he still factor into the Twins' plans in 2025 and beyond?

His Journey
Julien was drafted in the 18th round in 2019. Thanks to COVID, he made his professional debut in 2021, and fairly quickly, he looked like a patented late-round success story. He crushed in the 2022 Arizona Fall League, leading the league in walks and runs while slugging .683. Two weeks into the 2023 season, he received his first call-up and was a part of a historically good corps of rookies, along with Matt Wallner and Louie Varland. Over the course of 2023, he put up a .263/.381/.459 line, good for a 136 wRC+, third among all second basemen. He had power and patience, regularly spitting on pitches outside the zone. This led to him finishing the season with some Rookie of the Year votes, while being worth 2.8 fWAR.

This isn’t to say he didn’t have his warts: his defense at second base wasn’t good (-1 OAA); he had a 31% strikeout rate, driven by in-zone whiffs; he didn’t do well against lefties. Many saw him as a future first baseman or DH, and at worst, a platoon player. Exact role aside, he appeared to be firmly within the Twins' plans in some capacity.

During the offseason, he worked on his fielding, and entering the 2024 season, he looked to have claimed second base both offensively and defensively. In April, Julien looked like he had figured it all out. He put up an .861 OPS and seemed confident at second base. Davy Andrews even wrote a song, “Edouard Julien, Are You Gonna Rule Again?”. As it turns out, it was not meant to be - at least this season.

His results since the calendar flipped to May have been sub-replacement level. Across 180 plate appearances, he has just a .525 OPS, and that’s actually buoyed by a .320 BABIP. That’s bad for a backup catcher, let alone for a middle infielder or first baseman. To make matters worse, he’s hit just one homer and isn’t barreling the ball much at all—just 5.5% of his plate appearances end that way. Looking at Julien's Savant page, there's a frightening amount of blue.

Julien is sporting an unsightly 35% K-rate. Specifically, he’s striking out looking at an unsustainable rate.

Even worse, many of those come on pitches down the heart of the plate, where he’s been worth -7 runs.

He’s swinging at 19% of pitches just outside the zone, a 5% increase since last year. Overall, he’s swinging at about 30% fewer pitches than the average player. This suggests that his feel at the plate has disappeared, which is further backed up by a 5.7% drop in his walk rate, year over year.

His defense at second has also slid once again, and on the season, he’s now worth -3 OAA at second. He’s close to unplayable right now in all parts of his game, and would benefit from a reset. The end of the season isn’t a great time for that, as he will now feel the pressure of fighting for a 26-man roster spot entering 2025.

Who’s Behind Him?
Julien is capable of playing first, second, or DH. Thinking about the Twins depth chart, second base is likely to be manned by one of Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee for the next several seasons. Luke Keaschall is all but ready for a promotion to Triple-A, and will likely join the Twins at some point in 2025. His best positions are second base or center field, further crowding the infield. Willi Castro plays a lot of infield as well. So, it’ll likely be tough for Julien to crack any of those positions.

First base is likely to be an open competition between Jose Miranda (who was in a spot much like the one Julien is in now, a year ago), Alex Kirilloff (if he is still on the roster in 2025) or Julien. But a first baseman needs to hit. There are currently real question marks surrounding all three of those players’ ability to do that well enough for the position. If there were any likelihood of the Twins spending in the offseason, signing a Carlos Santana type would probably be the path of least resistance, and would prevent the Twins from having to decide which option at first is the least suboptimal. Since spending seems unlikely, it’s anyone’s guess.

Takeaways
Look, it’s possible that after the season ends, Julien will reveal that he’s been playing hurt, as Miranda was in 2023. Maybe he spends his offseason working with Driveline to improve his swing. Or, it’s possible that the league simply adjusted to Julien, and he needs to respond with an aggressive adjustment of his own. Regardless, it’s likely that he remains in the organization, as his potential trade value is severely depressed. Assuming he does, he will probably begin the season with the Saints, and will need to hit his way back onto the roster. Even if he does that, he may have regained more value as a trade chip given his defensive (in)flexibility. It’s up to Julien to figure out what his future holds. Unfortunately, this season raised more questions than it answered.

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[bean5302]

Yes. Julien is now where Larnach was a year ago. Julien is considered low value injury replacement depth at this point. When Brooks Lee leapfrogged Julien, and Julien moped and subsequently struggled to find his game in AAA, it became clear what direction this was heading.

Julien can resurrect his career still, but this has been a truly catastrophic year for him. He's going to need to swing at mediocre pitches like Larnach started doing in an attempt to put more balls in play. BB rates are going to plummet, strikeout rates should also drop, but the razors edge approach Julien had been using is clearly not sustainable.

[S Bart]

The Twins have too many young players and will have to cut ties and trade a few of them. Kiroloff is one and Julien may be another. Besides the hitting issues, he had a good deal of fielding challenges at 2nd base. 

I am really worried about Miranda playing first base. Santana will be hard to replace. Here, Twins will probably dump Santana due to age. Well, he is the player who leads the team in RBIs and HRs. I am also worried about them retaining Castro who set a record for flexibility at positions and was the only all star representatives. He is due a slary increase and ownership may balk. 

[S Bart]

Julien set a Twins record for the number of times that a player lost his batting helmet. It was a bit funny. For him and the other young ones including Lewis, they need to work on their hitting connected to their weak strikeout sections during the winter break. 

[roger]

I can't see any reason for the Twins keeping Julien.  Well, one.  And that's the fact he has little value and wouldn't bring much in a trade.  So I don't see him being moved over the winter.  Hopefully, he will have a better spring and do well at St. Paul next April-July.  They might then be able to include him in a trade and get something for him.

As for the mention about first base above, I sincerely hope one of the Twins few moves this winter is to re-sign Santana.  Guy hits ok and has been spectacular at first base

[Guest]

And then there's the Legend of St. Paul, ..., Peyton Eeles.

Julien won't make the opening day roster in 2025 and he's worth little on the trade market now.  Hello, AAA.

 

[BH67]

It's presumptuous to consider the future of any Twins player right now. The team may have an empty front office in a week.

[mickster]

27 minutes ago, S Bart said:

The Twins have too many young players and will have to cut ties and trade a few of them. Kiroloff is one and Julien may be another. Besides the hitting issues, he had a good deal of fielding challenges at 2nd base. 

I am really worried about Miranda playing first base. Santana will be hard to replace. Here, Twins will probably dump Santana due to age. Well, he is the player who leads the team in RBIs and HRs. I am also worried about them retaining Castro who set a record for flexibility at positions and was the only all star representatives. He is due a slary increase and ownership may balk. 

An example of not trading prospects when you can - they are what they are, prospects and getting proven talent is a key way to use them

 

[mickster]

8 minutes ago, BH67 said:

It's presumptuous to consider the future of any Twins player right now. The team may have an empty front office in a week.

do you play the FO or Rocco?   OR both.   Spreadsheet managing cost this team a shot at the postseason this year.   Stop the platooning and Pinch hitting and let the players play..........I was a Rocco fan, but I am past that now

[Parfigliano]

23 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

And then there's the Legend of St. Paul, ..., Peyton Eeles.

Julien won't make the opening day roster in 2025 and he's worth little on the trade market now.  Hello, AAA.

 

Unplayable.  Untradable.  Not good.

[RpR]

Second base will be open next spring for whom ever gets the nod.

Julien is kaput, Lee is no better than Julien, Lewis WILL NOT leave Third Base he is a poor fielder there and Second is more challenging.

Who is at Spring Training next year, is a total mystery , as is who wins 2nd Base.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This is a very similar discussion we had with Miranda at this time last year...

He is young and cheap.  Unless they include him in some sort of trade, expect Julien to be in the organization for the next few years.

[GNess]

Young players often go through struggles only to develop into quality MLB players. Julien still has a chance to turn things around, but the window may be closing as a Twin.

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, S Bart said:

The Twins have too many young players and will have to cut ties and trade a few of them. Kiroloff is one and Julien may be another. Besides the hitting issues, he had a good deal of fielding challenges at 2nd base. 

I am really worried about Miranda playing first base. Santana will be hard to replace. Here, Twins will probably dump Santana due to age. Well, he is the player who leads the team in RBIs and HRs. I am also worried about them retaining Castro who set a record for flexibility at positions and was the only all star representatives. He is due a slary increase and ownership may balk. 

Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered and he'll have to sign a pure MiLB contract somewhere.
Julien has no trade value, but he still has options. No reason to cut bait on him right now.

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered and he'll have to sign a pure MiLB contract somewhere.
Julien has no trade value, but he still has options. No reason to cut bait on him right now.

No reason to keep him either.

Until this year, the Saints , over the past few years, had a goodly number of players who Had played in the majors, trade him for one of those.

Maybe with Toronto.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

It is alarming to see some of the Twins 'prospects' completely fall flat on their face as opponents develop a scouting report.

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No reason to cut bait on him right now.

Unless the 40-man spot itself can be put to better use.  I haven't looked at what prospects need protecting from Rule 5.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

This goes for quite a few Twins' players - I'd be curious to see what they look like with a different approach at the plate. Not saying a new hitting instructor would be a miracle worker - but it wouldn't necessarily hurt. I look to Brent Rooker as the cautionary tale of giving up on someone too early in their career.

[Riverbrian]

He has options... He has service time. He costs the minimum to the bottom line. 

He has a career .347 OBP - Major League Average this year is .312

He has a career .753 OPS - Major League Average this year is .712

He is still above average after having what most would consider... a rather crappy year. 

This isn't a guy you just toss aside. 

What the hell are we talking about? 

[JD-TWINS]

Julien is a big disappointment & Lee is more disappointing. Both are young. If Keaschall hadn’t needed arm surgery I think he may have had a shot at 2B by June 1 next year - recovery time puts him in flux until mid-summer at a minimum.

Julien at 1B can’t be a serious option. He’s mediocre at 2B. His offense over last 5 months has shown very little promise. Trade value is low - can always move him for very little or release him next summer if he continues on current path. ……..He’s done it (130 OPS+ in ‘23) - so has Kirilloff (117 OPS+ in ‘23).

I think Castro is leaned on early next year at 2B and they bring in OF help from FA market.

Lee???? What’s he going to turn into? His current offense isn’t very bright! He may need 2-3 months in St Paul to get right next year?

[farmerguychris]

I don't think he's played his way out of being part of our future for one reason- he's cheap.  Until he becomes arbitration eligible he won't take up much payroll, and isn't that one of the most attractive things to this ownership group in a player?

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

And then there's the Legend of St. Paul, ..., Peyton Eeles.

Julien won't make the opening day roster in 2025 and he's worth little on the trade market now.  Hello, AAA.

 

Ah yes, Payton Eeles.  Not tall enough, not strong enough, not anything enough, not a prospect, not worth drafting, or so everyone thought. 

But then he went and hit well at all levels and can run and steal a base.  Lives at the ballpark.  Plays with his hair on fire and runs through brick walls for fun, they say.  I'd put him on the 25 man roster next year ahead of Julien, just to see if Eeles can wake up all the other zombies on the MLB squad.  Heck, maybe they should have tried that a couple of weeks ago.

[1985Fan]

Career numbers aside, he is unplayable in his current status. His glove has cost games and he does nothing, other than strike out, at the plate. They can keep him at AAA if they have room after protecting other prospects. He will have to make drastic improvements to be considered for the MLB roster, and I don’t see his glove as good enough to play anywhere in the field. Maybe he can improve his trade value so he can garner something in return. I doubt it. 

[RpR]

Second base will be open next spring for whom ever gets the nod.

Julien is kaput, Lee is no better than Julien, Lewis WILL NOT leave Third

[chinmusic]

Well, apparently, Julien is still in the Twins plans, at least for tonight. He's leading off and DHing.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

An example of not trading prospects when you can - they are what they are, prospects and getting proven talent is a key way to use them

 

Imagine thinking after what he did last year, that Julien should be traded.......no team would do that. How could this team even afford to field a team if they traded every player that was good as a rookie?

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

This goes for quite a few Twins' players - I'd be curious to see what they look like with a different approach at the plate. Not saying a new hitting instructor would be a miracle worker - but it wouldn't necessarily hurt. I look to Brent Rooker as the cautionary tale of giving up on someone too early in their career.

Are we thinking the coaches told him not to swing at 3rd strikes in the zone?

[NYCTK]

34 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Ah yes, Payton Eeles.  Not tall enough, not strong enough, not anything enough, not a prospect, not worth drafting, or so everyone thought. 

But then he went and hit well at all levels and can run and steal a base.  Lives at the ballpark.  Plays with his hair on fire and runs through brick walls for fun, they say.  I'd put him on the 25 man roster next year ahead of Julien, just to see if Eeles can wake up all the other zombies on the MLB squad.  Heck, maybe they should have tried that a couple of weeks ago.

Seriously. This team should DFA'd Margot months ago, and the only reason Julien is on the team is because he's already on the 40 man. Did he deserve a call up with his 35% K rate in his second AAA stint? 

Not to rag on the guy too much, but he was called up again on August 15th. The season turnaround happened on August 17th? He's the polar opposite of Jose Iglesias with the New York Mets. 

Giving Payton a chance might have been a catalyst. You never know. He wasn't undeserving of the chance. He had more BBs than Ks in AAA, and enough pop in the bat to be playable. No idea how his defense looks, but I wager it can't be worse than Julien. 

 

[karcherd]

2 hours ago, S Bart said:

The Twins have too many young players and will have to cut ties and trade a few of them. Kiroloff is one and Julien may be another. Besides the hitting issues, he had a good deal of fielding challenges at 2nd base. 

I am really worried about Miranda playing first base. Santana will be hard to replace. Here, Twins will probably dump Santana due to age. Well, he is the player who leads the team in RBIs and HRs. I am also worried about them retaining Castro who set a record for flexibility at positions and was the only all star representatives. He is due a slary increase and ownership may balk. 

Santana is leading the team with 22 HR and 65 RBi's, I don't think those numbers for a supposed contending team are anything to brag about.  And he is second on the team in AB's with the next closest over 100 AB's less.  Of course he is leading the team and we are about to be eliminated from the playoffs.  Can we at least try for quality rather than average production.  And Castro should be playing 3 to 4 days a week, he is being overvalued because he plays a lot of positions, his production has fallen off dramatically the second half of the season.  A contending team should not have Willi Castro leading in AB's, oh wait maybe we aren't a contending team.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien is a big disappointment & Lee is more disappointing. Both are young. If Keaschall hadn’t needed arm surgery I think he may have had a shot at 2B by June 1 next year - recovery time puts him in flux until mid-summer at a minimum.

Julien at 1B can’t be a serious option. He’s mediocre at 2B. His offense over last 5 months has shown very little promise. Trade value is low - can always move him for very little or release him next summer if he continues on current path. ……..He’s done it (130 OPS+ in ‘23) - so has Kirilloff (117 OPS+ in ‘23).

I think Castro is leaned on early next year at 2B and they bring in OF help from FA market.

Lee???? What’s he going to turn into? His current offense isn’t very bright! He may need 2-3 months in St Paul to get right next year?

Luke Keaschall is a full go from day 1 in spring. He had the surgery when he did because it would allow him to be full go from day one. Mid-summer is not at all his timeline. Day 1 of spring training is. They should go into spring with an open competition for 2B that includes Eeles and Keaschall both having a legitimate chance to take that job and run with it. 

Julien isn't going anywhere. Lee isn't going anywhere. Castro is the wild card. But neither of them deserve any sort of roster spot being handed to them. It's time to let the play on the field decide playing time.