The Jhoan Durán Panic Is Hugely Overblown

[Nick Nelson]

The right-hander has an ERA over four as the postseason approaches, and fan confidence seems to be shaken as he navigates a late-season slump in results. 

But ... has Jhoan Durán actually pitched poorly of late? I would argue, not really. More than anything, bad luck and bad defense have let him down.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

His latest patch of outings has people sounding the alarm on Jhoan Durán here in the crucial final stretch of the season. On the surface, that seems understandable: Over his past dozen appearances, he has a 6.30 ERA and opponents have batted .326 against him. On Saturday, the hard-throwing righty was charged with three runs that turned a two-run lead into a deficit. His next time out, on Wednesday, Durán gave up three hits in the ninth, putting a three-run lead at risk before finally sealing up the win.

But here's the thing. That was Durán's 23rd save conversion in 25 tries this year. In the capacity of closer, he's gotten his job done as well as you could ask. And while there have been some hiccups along the way in terms of results, lately those have related less to poor pitching and more to other factors outside his control.

Consider this: In the same span of 12 appearances where Durán has posted a 6.30 ERA, he has also posted a 0.68 FIP. Within this sample of work, he has struck out 17 hitters with one walk in 10 innings, and he hasn't allowed a home run. In fact, Durán has not allowed a home run since June 21st. His xERA, at 2.83, is in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers. There was a time where his strikeouts were concerningly down and his control was spotty, but that's no longer the case. 

 

Since the All-Star break Durán leads all Twins pitchers in strikeout rate (33%), and he has walked only three of 82 batters during that span. His swinging-strike rate is a very healthy 16 percent. In terms of pure performance, and basically everything under his direct power, Durán is dominating, even while missing a few ticks from his still-elite velocity.

So what's up with those pesky hiccups? No one can deny that Durán has let some games spiral under his watch -- charged with five losses in 20 appearances since the All-Star break despite the above numbers. And I'm not trying to absolve Durán entirely from blame with these outcomes; there have been mistakes and lapses in execution, like on Wednesday night when he grooved an 0-2 fastball down the middle to LA's #9 hitter, helping the Angels mount a ninth-inning threat. 

But ask yourself, logically: If Durán were pitching so poorly, and his stuff were so drastically diminished as to be driving these outcomes ... Wouldn't he be struggling to miss bats, or throw strikes? If he's so frequently leaving pitches out over the plate, wouldn't an opposing hitter have squared up a single one for a homer in the past three months?

The reality is, Durán is pitching very well. He's been getting papercut to death by singles, many of which are grounders or soft liners that simply went to the wrong place. Or, they didn't, but were completely bungled by the Twins defense, which has been staggeringly awful in the late stage of the season. 

Wednesday's save was a perfect example of the snake-bitten curse that has afflicted Durán in the second half, during which he's been victimized by a .460 (!) BABIP: four Angels hitters put the ball in play, and three went for singles. Durán still got wriggled out of the jam and closed out the win, as he usually has. And despite all the uproar I saw, I just don't see a case that he pitched badly. 

The difference between Nolan Schanuel's ground-ball RBI single with one out, which brought the score to 6-4, and the Michael Stefanic groundout to short, which ended the game rather than bleeding through and scoring the tying run, is pretty much negligible in terms of Durán's influence. In both cases he did his job.

That's steadily been the case for Durán in the second half of the season, even if the results have sometimes betrayed his strong work. While that's certainly liable to happen again in the future -- especially if Minnesota's defense doesn't sharpen up -- there isn't really anything specific to Durán's performance that should have people feeling concerned about him. As long as he keeps doing his job, the Twins will be in good shape, and he'll loom as an intimidating postseason factor. Provided they start making some plays behind him.

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[Doctor Gast]

Duran had some problems coming off the IL in the beginning of the season that set him back. He's still not 100% where he was last year where he would come in any time in the game & be lights out. But he's still very good & does well set in as the expected 9th-inning closer. Twins need to adjust to where he's at right now & not expect him to be the same as last season.

[jmlease1]

Hopefully we can get Correa back on the field so he can help steady the defense. He's so steady back there, so smart with his positioning that it helps everyone.

he's definitely been a little more nervy for us lately, but a lot of the underlying numbers are still very good. He's had a bizarre level of balls drop in for hits when guys actually manage to put one in play lately, and you have to think that will even out.

I also have to keep reminding myself that this is only his 3rd season in MLB!

[Obie]

A stat guru on here can speak with greater knowledge, but my eyeball opinion is that he needs to stop throwing his splitter for strikes, especially early in the count. Use it as a chase pitch when he's ahead in the count and keep it below the zone. He needs to throw his plus fastball more frequently. Location and pitch selection are his biggest problems, IMHO.

[LambchoP]

He may be still feeling the after effects of his early season oblique injury. His velo is down a bit from last year, but you really can't complain about a guy "only" throwing 100-102. Although it was a blast watching him hit 103 104 last year. I think the main issue is he's been pretty awful in non saves situations, but then in one or two run close games or save situations, he's been dominant. I don't think there's anything to worry about with Duran. He's our closer, and he deserves to be. 

[Twodogs]

16 minutes ago, Obie said:

A stat guru on here can speak with greater knowledge, but my eyeball opinion is that he needs to stop throwing his splitter for strikes, especially early in the count. Use it as a chase pitch when he's ahead in the count and keep it below the zone. He needs to throw his plus fastball more frequently. Location and pitch selection are his biggest problems, IMHO.

https://puckettspond.com/posts/jhoan-duran-called-out-twins-coaches-walk-off-home-run-guardians-01hyc10yzs3j

 

It seems that he doesn't necessarily have complete control of what he throws, or when.  So some of those pitch selections might not be his fault?

[mike8791]

I don't care what all the "stats" tell me.  He has eight losses this year - 5 since the all star break.  There's no putting lipstick on that stat!

[S Bart]

When he entered the Target playing field with fanfare last year, I had confidence in him. This year, the blinking lights and music has alerted me to potential danger. He seems to normally permit hitters to get on base which promotes nail biting.  UGH...

[Aggies7]

41 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

I don't care what all the "stats" tell me.  He has eight losses this year - 5 since the all star break.  There's no putting lipstick on that stat!

How many were manfred losses? For some reason, he’s not good in non-save situations, but his manager key likes throwing him into those situations. And I can think of two losses in the last month off the top of my head that were directly because of the defense.

[Nashvilletwin]

Fans aren’t the only ones in a “panic” over Duran. As we all remember, after Ober’s sterling seven inning, 83 pitch, one-hit outing last week, Rocco brought in Duran to pitch the eighth and face the 6-7-8 hitters, saving Jax theoretically to face the top of the order in the ninth.

Seems Rocco is in a bit of a tizzy too over his star closer.

[Nick Nelson]

50 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Fans aren’t the only ones in a “panic” over Duran. As we all remember, after Ober’s sterling seven inning, 83 pitch, one-hit outing last week, Rocco brought in Duran to pitch the eighth and face the 6-7-8 hitters, saving Jax theoretically to face the top of the order in the ninth.

Seems Rocco is in a bit of a tizzy too over his star closer.

Griffin Jax has been arguably the best reliever in the majors, definitely in the top five. I wouldn't view it as a slight to Duran. Baldelli's been using Jax in the highest-leverage situations for a long time now, in that game it just happened to map out in the ninth.

[Blyleven2011]

My eye test says he was lights out his rookie year , following year he was very good but slipped some ,

This year he definitely isn't showing his dominant self , could it be the injury to start the season , he has three pitches , they're all hitable if the battter knows what's coming , he does get beat more often  on his secondary pitches than his fastball  .. 

[Rosterman]

He's doing his job. Trying to mix speeds too much at times. Become a better pitcher.

Even Jax has his moments (never bring in Jax with a runner on second, folks). 

Give Duran the role of closer and let him be. If you need to give him a closing day off, do. Just...no 8th inning matchups. Next season, he should be able to face any batter that comes to the plate.

[NYCTK]

He's been a big disappointment. But that's due to expectations. I thought he was Clase. Turns out he's just a very good reliever instead of a shutdown stalwart.  

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, mike8791 said:

I don't care what all the "stats" tell me.  He has eight losses this year - 5 since the all star break.  There's no putting lipstick on that stat!

He's pitched in 53 games and 10 times the team has been significantly worse off, largely because of him. This isn't bad, per se. But it's not great. The much, and rightfully, maligned Clay Holmes has been in 60 games with 12 hurting his team. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, Obie said:

A stat guru on here can speak with greater knowledge, but my eyeball opinion is that he needs to stop throwing his splitter for strikes, especially early in the count. Use it as a chase pitch when he's ahead in the count and keep it below the zone. He needs to throw his plus fastball more frequently. Location and pitch selection are his biggest problems, IMHO.

I agree that he seems to throw more breaking pitches early than he used to. He used to throw gas, get ahead and then use the curve and splitter to put guys away. Maybe that's an attempt to put hitters off balance who come to the plate gearing up for a 1000 mph fastball. The problem is he misses with that curveball too often on the first pitch or two, gets behind, and gets hit. Look, I'm just a guy behind a computer but I would like to at least see him come up throwing gas early in the count and use the breaking pitches to get guys out rather than trying to use breaking pitches to set up the fastball.

[Aggies7]

55 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

He's been a big disappointment. But that's due to expectations. I thought he was Clase. Turns out he's just a very good reliever instead of a shutdown stalwart.  

Clase is 44 for 47 on save opportunities (93%). Duran is 23 for 25 (92%).

Surprised he’s getting criticized as being “off”

[Aggies7]

48 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

He's pitched in 53 games and 10 times the team has been significantly worse off, largely because of him. This isn't bad, per se. But it's not great. The much, and rightfully, maligned Clay Holmes has been in 60 games with 12 hurting his team. 

Holmes is 29 for 41 in save opportunities. That’s 70%. Duran is at 92%. Most of the top ten closers in the game right now have 2-4 blown saves this season. Kirby Yates looks to be the best at 30 of 31.

Top ten leaders in total saves/opps

Helsley 44/48

Clase 44/47

Finnegan 36/41

suarez 32/36

Iglesias 31/34

Yates 30/31

Hader 29/31

Holmes 29/41

Diaz 27/31

Jansen 26/30

Duran is doing just fine in his role. It stinks that he can’t perform well in other spots, but the twins don’t have anyone else who has shown they can be great at closing. Jax, for as good as he is, has 12 blown saves in the last two seasons 

[Linus]

 Completely agree. People are comparing him to a ridiculous standard based on how lights out he was last year. More importantly the Twins defense is really bad. Rarely do they help the pitcher and frequently they hurt the pitcher. 

[Shaitan]

51 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Clase is 44 for 47 on save opportunities (93%). Duran is 23 for 25 (92%).

Surprised he’s getting criticized as being “off”

50 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Cla

No idea why it's double quoting you. This site completely breaks by Chromebook some days.

Anyway, I agree with you. 

And part of it is the weird expectations of closers. The data shows a minimal difference in save percentage between Guardado and Nathan (and Rivera, for that matter). It's been talked to death elsewhere, but the difference between an average closer (Guardado) and a great one (Nathan) tends to be a couple of losses per year. People really overvalue the save stat.

Stats be damned, I also agree that Duran has been just fine this year.

tbh, I never thought he was a top tier closer even last year. He's a very good pitcher, but not a great pitcher IMHO.

[Shaitan]

Just make this headline the TD site banner, minus "Jhoan Duran"

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

36 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Just make this headline the TD site banner, minus "Jhoan Duran"

Heh. Nicely done.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

Clase is 44 for 47 on save opportunities (93%). Duran is 23 for 25 (92%).

Surprised he’s getting criticized as being “off”

Saves, to a lesser extent than Ws and Ls, are a dumb stat. I don't ever look at them. I will always look at a closer's WPA or Shutdowns/Meltdowns over Saves/Blown Saves.

Clase - 40 / 4

Jax - 37 / 9

Duran - 31 / 10

Clay - 27 / 12

Edwin Diaz - 22 / 9

Some other notables: 

Mason Miller - 25 / 4

Kirby Yates - 36 / 5

Jorge Alcala - 21 / 8

Okert - 8 / 10

Thielbar - 10 / 8

 

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Griffin Jax has been arguably the best reliever in the majors, definitely in the top five. I wouldn't view it as a slight to Duran. Baldelli's been using Jax in the highest-leverage situations for a long time now, in that game it just happened to map out in the ninth.

Agree and disagree.  Jax is definitely one of the best relievers, but the number of times Duran has come in to pitch in front of Jax this season can certainly be counted on one hand I believe.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

46 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree and disagree.  Jax is definitely one of the best relievers, but the number of times Duran has come in to pitch in front of Jax this season can certainly be counted on one hand I believe.

Facing the bottom of the order in the 9th is a lower leverage situation than facing the heart of the order in the 8th, given the same score. 

[Aggies7]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

No idea why it's double quoting you. This site completely breaks by Chromebook some days.

Anyway, I agree with you. 

And part of it is the weird expectations of closers. The data shows a minimal difference in save percentage between Guardado and Nathan (and Rivera, for that matter). It's been talked to death elsewhere, but the difference between an average closer (Guardado) and a great one (Nathan) tends to be a couple of losses per year. People really overvalue the save stat.

Stats be damned, I also agree that Duran has been just fine this year.

tbh, I never thought he was a top tier closer even last year. He's a very good pitcher, but not a great pitcher IMHO.

He struggled around the middle or later of last season IIRC. To the point where he was a genuine concern. But then he showed up in a big way in the postseason. He was nearly perfect. If he can do that again, I’ll live with “only” a 92% save percentage 😂

[Nashvilletwin]

48 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Facing the bottom of the order in the 9th is a lower leverage situation than facing the heart of the order in the 8th, given the same score. 

In the instance to which I referred, Duran faced the bottom of the order in the eighth, leaving Jax to theoretically face the top of the order in the ninth.  I was implying that this move by Rocco - putting Duran in ahead of Jax in a non save situation against a weaker lineup - suggested a little more confidence in Jax and a little less in Duran , at least on that particular day.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Just make this headline the TD site banner, minus "Jhoan Duran"

I'm reliably informed that optimism is verboten here.

[Shaitan]

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm reliably informed that optimism is verboten here.

"Everything's okay" is terrible at generating clickthru.

[DocBauer]

I don't believe Duran has been quite as good as he has been the previous two seasons. That doesn't mean he hasn't been good, and affective overall. And Nick has done a good job of showing the underlying numbers. When you K a high % and have a low BB % and a low HR %, you SHOULD be successful. And while not quite as dominate as he has been, he has been largely successful.

I know some of the results haven't been good lately. But everything is magnified for a RP when they have a bad day, or bad luck. By bad luck I mean a fly ball that drops in, a seeing eye single, or a bad play by a defender. One run allowed is USUALLY OK. Two runs can often lead to disaster. For a starter, over multiple innings, that's part of the game. For a late inning reliever, it can be a loss. Nobody is perfect, and again, things get magnified when it happens to a reliever.

I still trust Duran. I won't excuse him, however, for a few too many honest hits this season, or a few too many balls hard hit. As successful as he's been, I think he's been a little "off" at times. The question is, has he just been a little off with some of his command? Has the sequencing been a little off at times? Or, as crazy as it sounds, is throwing 99-101 making it easier for batters to time his stuff and maybe he should take just a little off of his splinker and curve to change the batters timing?

I think he's got a DOMINATE repertoire overall. But throwing 101-103 consistently is pretty tough. Again, there's probably just a few tweaks in delivery and sequencing that might make all the difference. But I keep thinking his secondary offerings with just a little change in velocity could really befuddle the batters.