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Posted

With an important series win on the line, the Twins pitched well the entire game, and Royce Lewis delivered a key RBI double to put his team ahead in the eighth. However, a crucial error by Edouard Julien gave the Cardinals life in the ninth, and they capitalized, turning the game on its head and taking the series to go.

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher:
Zebby Matthews: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K (86 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 66.2%)
Home Runs: Willi Castro (11)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.658), Austin Martin (-.294), Manuel Margot (-.160)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

image.png.7ee273396b283b4e377af75bec3ca8ef.png

I was in attendance for Friday's 6-1 loss to the Cardinals, and although it was not a particularly poorly played game by the Twins, it was about as bad a viewing experience as one could get. One thing the Rocco Baldelli-led Twins have been good at, however, is bouncing back from embarrassing or gut-punch losses, and they certainly accomplished that against Sonny Gray on Saturday. With the AL Central race tightening with Cleveland's poor play and the Royals' recent surge, winning a home series against a dysfunctional Cardinals team was imperative.

Zebby Matthews gave his best effort. The rookie righthander struck out six batters through three innings, showcasing his slider as a viable out pitch against both lefties and righties. He allowed leadoff singles in the second and third, but struck out Lars Nootbar on a tight slider to end the second, and got Matt Carpenter to pop out to end the third.

Opposing Matthews was Erick Fedde, who had dominated the Twins in his two starts with the White Sox and was acquired for a hefty price by the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Fedde hasn't been great since switching uniforms, with his middling strikeout rate dropping to 15.8% as a Cardinal and his ERA at nearly 5.00. He began his day by trying to sneak a cutter inside to leadoff hitter Willi Castro, and Castro yanked it 417 feet onto the pavilion in right field.

The Twins quieted down after that. Edouard Julien led off the third with a base hit, but Austin Martin rapped into a double play, with second baseman Brendan Donovan making a slick play to graze the base with his foot as he fired to first. Minnesota loaded the bases in the fourth, with José Miranda being hit by a pitch, followed by two-out walks to Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana. Manuel Margot, starting in place of the injured Max Kepler, swung through a high fastball to end the threat.

Matthews was cruising for a while. After a 1-2-3 fourth inning, he got two quick outs in the fifth, bringing up rookie center fielder Victor Scott II. Scott is fast and looks good in center, but he was hitting .219 in Triple A, and .147 in the majors. He took a hack at a Matthews's slider, which the fellow rookie left up in the zone, and demolished it--to everyone's surprise, including Scott's. It looked kind of like a golfer who had been hitting their driver in the woods all day, so they just decide to swing as hard as they can and somehow it ends up right down the middle.

Meanwhile, Fedde was really settling in, and benefiting from a fairly wide strike zone. He used his sinker to induce ground balls, while Twins hitters were happy to pop up and/or get jammed on his cutter. He left a few offspeed and breaking pitches in the zone, but only when the Twins hitter was looking for the sinker or cutter. It was a really nice performance for the former first-round pick, who ended up having his first taste of success in Korea, and who began the year pitching for (perhaps) the worst team in history. He then gets traded to one of the more respected franchises in sports, only for them to immediately free-fall out of contention.

The Twins were certainly happy to see him exit the game following the sixth. Andrew Kittredge, who has had closing experience with some good Rays teams of recent memory, allowed one-out singles to Margot and Julien, putting runners on the corners with one out. Martin has been swinging it well lately (.346/.414/.462 line in August), but quickly grounded into his second double play of the day.

After a strong two scoreless innings from Cole Sands, the Twins turned to Griffin Jax for the eighth, who struck out two in a brief 1-2-3 inning. That's well and good, but it likely means that the Twins will be without Sands, Duran and Jax for the first game of the Atlanta series, so expect a lot of Jorge Alcalá and Caleb Thielbar.

Facing an effective lefty reliever in JoJo Romero in the eighth, Castro started the frame with a walk. Royce Lewis was called upon to pinch hit for Trevor Larnach and wasted no time, crushing an 0-1 change-up 107 MPH into the left-center gap to score Castro and regain the lead.

After a fly ball from Miranda that moved Lewis to third, the Twins had a golden opportunity to add some insurance. Kyle Famer was called to pinch-hit for Matt Wallner, and the Cardinals countered by bringing in a right-hander, Shawn Armstrong. This decision could be questioned, since Wallner has been hitting, and Romero had been struggling. Instead, you have a cold Farmer facing a fresh Armstrong with a key run on third. Famer ended up popping out on one pitch, and Ryan Jeffers then grounded out to end the threat.

Jhoan Duran came out for the ninth, and started by striking out Carpenter on a 99-MPH fastball. Then the fun started. Nolan Arenado singled off of Julien's glove, and Donovan tapped a two-hopper to Julien in the next at-bat. Going for the force out at second, Julien threw wide. The ball sailed into left field, putting runners at second and third with just one out. Facing Tommy Pham, Duran buried two splitters to get ahead in the count, and locked Pham up with a curveball right down Broadway. It was an extraordinary recovery, in an at-bat where one could have made a fine case for just issuing a free pass.

Nootbar would not be so kind. He swung at a first pitch splitter up in the zone and bounced it through the hole the other way to score both baserunners, flipping the game and giving the Cardinals the lead.

Trends:

           
  Healthy Hurt      
Performing Great          
Fine          
Poor          
IL/Minors          
           
C Ryan Jeffers 📈 Christian Vazquez 📈      
1B Carlos Santana 📈 Alex Kirilloff 📉 Jose Miranda 📉    
2B Edouard Julien 📈 Kyle Farmer 📈'      
3B Royce Lewis 📈        
SS Carlos Correa 📈 Brooks Lee 📈      
LF Matt Wallner 📈 Trevor Larnach 📈 Austin Martin 📈    
CF Byron Buxton 📉 Manuel Margot 📉      
RF Max Kepler 📉        
UTIL Willi Castro 📉        
SP Pablo Lopez 📈 Bailey Ober 📈 Joe Ryan 📉 Chris Paddack 📉 Louie Varland 📈
RSP David Festa 📈 Zebby Matthews 📈
Simeon Woods Richardson 📈
   
CR Jhoan Duran 📈 Griffin Jax 📈      
SR Brock Stewart 📉 Jorge Alcala 📉 Cole Sands 📈    
MR Trevor Richards 📉 Caleb Thielbar 📈 Scott Blewett 📈    
LR Josh Winder 📈 Ronny Henriquez 📈 Randy Dobnak 📉    

What’s Next: Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA), looks to bounce back from a frustrating outing against San Diego, in which he was pinpoint and dominant until Manny Machado hit a two-run home run that tied the game. Ober will face Atlanta's Max Fried (7-7, 3.57 ERA), who has had a great career but has struggled with injuries in his final year before he enters free agency. and carries a 6.10 ERA for August. The Braves have been beset by an abnormal amount of injuries this year, and that has caused their performance to crater, though they remain in playoff position.

Postgame Interviews:

 


Bullpen Usage Chart:

  WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
Richards 0 0 44 0 0 44
Durán 0 0 0 16 25 41
Sands 15 0 0 0 26 41
Thielbar 17 0 18 0 0 35
Jax 0 0 0 19 12 31
Alcalá 0 0 25 0 0 25
Henríquez 17 0 0 0 0 17
Blewett 0 13 0 0 0 13

View full article

Posted

Eddy Julien deserves as much condemnation today as Gary Anderson did at the Metrodome 26 years ago – hardly any. In both cases, a single bad play resulting in defeat is only the symptom, and the offense squandering numerous opportunities to put the game away earlier is the cause.

Yes, the Twins defense needs to be solid more regularly. But the ongoing feast/famine cycle of the batting lineup is unpleasant, no matter if Correa and Buxton are sidelined. Twins pitchers have found a way to step up while missing a couple key arms. The bats need to do likewise.
 

Posted

Rocco needs to take a hard look at what is best for the team. Julian made a bad throw to Santana the other day, has bobbled the ball several times recently, and now makes a grave mistake that cost the Twins a game. I sympathize that bad plays happen but one needs to review his multiple fielding mishaps lately. Regardless, Lee will be returning soon, and Julian will be delegated back to St. Paul. Yes, Buxton is a good player when he is healthy but "resting him" upon his return almost every other day is ridiculous at this point in the season.  Farmer is a nice team guy, but he has a .192 average and continues to play on a regular basis. Correa has planter faucitis which can reoccur every season.  A person can at least bat in this situation. The team has reached the brink and smart strategy, and thought-out decisions will need to be made. If not, the team will not make the playoffs. Baldelli's constant strange chess moves are mindboggling and costly at times. The team will expand the roster in one week. KC will be on the schedule the very next day and Cleveland will soon follow.  Ultimately, Baldelli needs to be strongly evaluated on his managerial decisions at the end of the season. 

Posted

 

2 players to win $3

Royce Lewis
STL 3 @ MIN 2 Final
LESS than 1.5 Total Bases
LIVE: 2 Bases
Riley Greene
DET 9 @ CWS 4 Final
MORE than 0.5 Total Runs
LIVE: 1 Runs

 

i made this bet when i seen Royce wasent starting,   Double did me in,   gave me a good Chuckle  only $ 1-- bet
Posted

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision.

That brings me to my "dead horse" complaint. It's absolute madness that they continue to roster 2 below replacement level players with the only intent to use them against 25% of the league in the box and play them as little as possible up the middle. Margot and Farmer should not be on this roster. This obsession with platooning and pinch hitting makes no sense. They had a combined 5 PAs today. All of them against righties. This strategy of maximizing your output against 25% of the league at the cost of hurting your output against 75% is nonsense! Especially for corner players!

This utterly predictable situation is going to kill them in the playoffs. Rostering them is on Falvine and being so utterly predictable in game is on Rocco. This is an organizational problem that they need to fix. I can't imagine what numbers they're looking at that make this strategy make sense. Guys who flat out can't hit 75% of the pitchers in the majors shouldn't be on contending rosters. Stop the madness!

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision.

 

That decision also prevented using Farmer for the single, solitary, lonely reason that makes any sense: now he's not available as a late game defense replacement for Julien. 

Worse, he's at SS--which they've steasfastly avoided all season if possible--and Castro's in the OF and you're worse defensively at 2 additional positions. 

Which ignores the question of why use both Jax and Duran yesterday.  

Not to mention: Why pitch to LH hitting regular Nootbar with 2 outs, 2 on and 1st base open, RH hitting backup catcher due up and the other catcher likely not available. So slim chance of PH.

 

 

 

Posted

Stings to waste a good start from a rookie pitcher. Julien is not a good fielder and he knows it. This really makes his yips in the field more challenging. I’m wrong plenty but stated numerous times that Julien and a prospect should have been dealt for a controllable starter last winter while his trade value was high. 

Posted
1 hour ago, CRF said:

A lot of blame to go around in this one. Disgusting. This makes 3 very bad losses in a little over a week. That just can't happen, if we want to catch Cleveland. 

Not catching CLE short of plane crash.

Posted
1 hour ago, CRF said:

A lot of blame to go around in this one. Disgusting. This makes 3 very bad losses in a little over a week. That just can't happen, if we want to catch Cleveland. 

Not catch.  This proves.

Posted
48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision.

That brings me to my "dead horse" complaint. It's absolute madness that they continue to roster 2 below replacement level players with the only intent to use them against 25% of the league in the box and play them as little as possible up the middle. Margot and Farmer should not be on this roster. This obsession with platooning and pinch hitting makes no sense. They had a combined 5 PAs today. All of them against righties. This strategy of maximizing your output against 25% of the league at the cost of hurting your output against 75% is nonsense! Especially for corner players!

This utterly predictable situation is going to kill them in the playoffs. Rostering them is on Falvine and being so utterly predictable in game is on Rocco. This is an organizational problem that they need to fix. I can't imagine what numbers they're looking at that make this strategy make sense. Guys who flat out can't hit 75% of the pitchers in the majors shouldn't be on contending rosters. Stop the madness!

Wow.  Nail.  Head.

Posted

I would’ve walked Nootbar, even if they had another left-handed bat. Nootbars numbers are good against the Twins.

Posted

I won't defend the pinch-hitting nonsense, but are we really expecting Rocco to treat Julien like a reliever and pull him when he makes mistakes? Hasn't he been better fielding at 2B, and is there any precedent for him getting spelled late with a defensive replacement? I dunno, I think this is over-analysis. At some point, poor play has to be pinned on the player and not the manager.

Matthews has some nasty stuff, if he can get that pitch count down he might be able to get a little further into games. He has a bright future.

Posted
16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision....

Chpettit19, this isn't directed uniquely to you, but I'm going to respond to this one because I also consider myself "annoyingly neutral" on managers. And despite what I'm going to say next, I'm annoyingly neutral on this decision. 

For his career, Farmer has hit righties better than Wallner has hit lefties. For this season, Farmer has hit righties worse than Wallner has hit lefties. But overall, Farmer hitting against a righty or Wallner hitting against a lefty are both bad options to choose from.

But there's another variable. Somebody throws the ball. And in this case, there's a pretty big difference between Marmol's resulting options.

Going into today, for the year, Romero has a 1.5 bWAR and a 2.45 ERA that translates into a 173 ERA+. For the year, Armstrong has a -0.4 bWAR and a 5.02 ERA that translates to an 81 ERA+.

So it's not as simple as choosing Wallner against a lefty vs. Farmer against a righty. It's also choosing Wallner against a lights-out lefty vs. Farmer against a raunchy righty.

I join others in saying that a downside to choosing the Farmer option is what it did to the defense, and that definitely ended up biting us.

But there were also likely eleventy-seven other factors that went into the decision, and I'm not smart enough to claim that I know them.

As I said, I'm annoying neutral on managers, primarily because of the previous paragraph. I try not to use the words "always" and "never" because there's a lot of gray in life. But here's a sentence in which I'll use both. There is ALWAYS more information feeding into a manager's decision than we are aware of, and we will NEVER have access to all that information. 

Posted
37 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

1 out to get and poof another real tough ugly loss. Can't be losing like this to teams totally out of contention. Terrible 9th. Even our leadoff hit was totally wasted. Fans can rightly be ticked today

I've been ticked since last Sunday  when acala melted down  ...

We are supposed to have a major league manager  and a previous manager as bench coach  , what's wrong with this picture  ...

Heads should roll this  offseason  , no ifs ands or buts , this is getting old  ,  don't play fundamentals  , no consistency in the hitting  or lineups ( i know we have injuries ) , no small ball when the opposing teams continue to play small ball against us ...

We need a new voice  , I heard Rocco    ( broadcasting team mentioned it ) that Pablo  had a fantastic start  yesterday  , that's complete nonsense  , Pablo struggled early and battled  and got through the game unscathed  with no runs allowed  ( it was a good game , yes ) ,  I never listen anymore to pre or post games of Rocco because  it's all BS  ...

I will never cut Rocco any slack  and it all started in the 2019 playoffs  when he really had to manage , during the 2019 season  the players had career years and he just sat back and reaped an award  ...

Posted
11 minutes ago, Danchat said:

...Matthews has some nasty stuff, if he can get that pitch count down he might be able to get a little further into games. He has a bright future.

This was the first time I've seen Matthews, and I would concur. During the broadcast, they named that the most pitches he's thrown in a professional game is 92, so I suspect he'll be on a short leash, but I agree -- he could be a diamond in the rough.

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

With runners on 1B & 3B with 1 out, I thought they'd try a delayed steal, a squeeze, just send Julien to 2B, a hit & run or something but they decided to do nothing.

Other teams play small ball and manufacture runs against us , but our manager is reluctant to give the team an easy out , they would rather see a strike out or a double play ...

I'm at my wits end since last Sunday  ...

I feel better now ...

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Lost in the ninth inning debacle is the fact that Zebby pitched his best game yet!

He pitched well. Really well.

But of course the most pitches he's thrown in a game in his professional career is 92. So he's out of the game after five, and you need 4 IP from the pen, minimum, every time he pitches. Same for Festa.

They don't throw innings in the minors either (105 across all of 2023, for example) so here we sit worried about innings in August. For most of our starters. 

I will never understand why they choose to not prepare their pitchers for the big leagues.

Posted
28 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Chpettit19, this isn't directed uniquely to you, but I'm going to respond to this one because I also consider myself "annoying neutral" on managers. And despite what I'm going to say next, I'm annoying neutral on this decision. 

For his career, Farmer has hit righties better than Wallner has hit lefties. For this season, Farmer has hit righties worse than Wallner has hit lefties. But overall, Farmer hitting against a righty or Wallner hitting against a lefty are both bad options to choose from.

But there's another variable. Somebody throws the ball. And in this case, there's a pretty big difference between Marmol's resulting options.

Going into today, for the year, Romero has a 1.5 bWAR and a 2.45 ERA that translates into a 173 ERA+. For the year, Armstrong has a -0.4 bWAR and a 5.02 ERA that translates to an 81 ERA+.

So it's not as simple as choosing Wallner against a lefty vs. Farmer against a righty. It's also choosing Wallner against a lights-out lefty vs. Farmer against a raunchy righty.

I join others in saying that a downside to choosing the Farmer option is what it did to the defense, and that definitely ended up biting us.

But there were also likely eleventy-seven other factors that went into the decision, and I'm not smart enough to claim that I know them.

As I said, I'm annoying neutral on managers, primarily because of the previous paragraph. I try not to use the words "always" and "never" because there's a lot of gray in life. But here's a sentence in which I'll use both. There is ALWAYS more information feeding into a manager's decision than we are aware of, and we will NEVER have access to that information. 

I'll add that in that situation they were looking for someone to put the ball in play with 1 out and a guy on 3rd and Wallner is a bigger strikeout concern. I don't disagree with your general stance, there are a lot of variables. But Jojo Romero had walked a guy, given up a double with an exit velo of 107.2, and a flyout with an exit velo at 96. He wasn't on his game today and that was clear. Rocco has those numbers in real time, too. My concern is how automatic these decisions are in basically any close game. Lefty on the mound? Pinch hit. Even if that means Farmer is going to face a righty or if Margot is 0-fer on the season. Doesn't matter. Pinch hit. Can't risk the lefty facing a lefty. That puts the other team in charge. They get to dictate what they want. Marmol was the one in the tough spot, but Rocco made it easy on him. Jeffers and Santana were next. Marmol deciding when to take out the superior reliever was the tough choice. Rocco let him off the hook with the auto-pinch hit.

I don't care about Farmer's career numbers against righties. They're meaningless for this decision. This isn't April, it's 6 days from September. Farmer is who he is this year. So is Margot. They can't hit righties. Farmer has a .485 OPS and .150 BA against righties this year. At some point the numbers this season need to start factoring in. It's beyond time, as far as I'm concerned. Margot is 0-28 as a pinch hitter. 0-28. It's time to stop pinch hitting him this year. That's not what they expected, but at some point it's time to move beyond what you expected and base decisions on what you have. Farmer and Margot should never face righties. Never. I don't blame Rocco totally for that. Kepler wasn't feeling it today so had to play someone else. Limited options. That's why I blame Falvey and Levine, too, for having him on the roster. Farmer shouldn't play at all, but he's here and everyone on the roster has to play eventually. Just the reality of the game.

I 100% agree that Rocco has a million more data points than we do. But I don't see this situation as all that complicated. Margot should never pinch hit for the Twins again. Farmer should not have pinch hit today. The decision was based on a season long plan. It's not all Rocco's fault. This is the organizational philosophy they follow. But it's darn near September. It's time to start making decisions based on this year's numbers and not the projections you had for this year. Can Rocco throw out a bunch of reasons why he did what he did? Of course. But, as far as I'm concerned, it just isn't that complicated. Wallner had the better chance there. Farmer is no longer a major league player. They need to stop pretending he is.

Posted
3 hours ago, CRF said:

A lot of blame to go around in this one. Disgusting. This makes 3 very bad losses in a little over a week. That just can't happen, if we want to catch Cleveland. 

Reality. 

Not catching CLE. Try hold on to WC.

Posted
2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision.

That brings me to my "dead horse" complaint. It's absolute madness that they continue to roster 2 below replacement level players with the only intent to use them against 25% of the league in the box and play them as little as possible up the middle. Margot and Farmer should not be on this roster. This obsession with platooning and pinch hitting makes no sense. They had a combined 5 PAs today. All of them against righties. This strategy of maximizing your output against 25% of the league at the cost of hurting your output against 75% is nonsense! Especially for corner players!

This utterly predictable situation is going to kill them in the playoffs. Rostering them is on Falvine and being so utterly predictable in game is on Rocco. This is an organizational problem that they need to fix. I can't imagine what numbers they're looking at that make this strategy make sense. Guys who flat out can't hit 75% of the pitchers in the majors shouldn't be on contending rosters. Stop the madness!

You. Knew. 5 seconads ahead i know. Rocco didnt.  

BIG PROBLRM

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