Why the Minnesota Twins Dodged a Bullet by Not Re-signing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda

[Cody Christie]

The Twins were interested in bringing back Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in free agency last winter. Luckily, it seems the team dodged a bullet by letting both veterans sign elsewhere. 

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins entered the 2024 offseason with two of their top starting pitchers, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, hitting free agency. Both had been key contributors in the Twins’ rotation, with Gray finishing as a finalist for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and Maeda showing flashes of brilliance despite dealing with injuries. The decision not to re-sign these pitchers might have raised some eyebrows initially, but as the 2024 season progresses, it’s becoming clear that the Twins may have dodged a bullet.

Age and Durability Concerns
Both Gray and Maeda were on the wrong side of 30 as they entered free agency. Gray, at 34, and Maeda, at 36, were already facing the natural decline that comes with age. Maeda, in particular, had struggled with injuries in recent years, missing significant time in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and not fully returning to form in 2023. While both pitchers remained effective when healthy, the risk of further injuries or declining performance was high.

The 2024 season has shown that these concerns were well-founded. Gray has already spent time on the injured list with shoulder issues, and Maeda’s velocity has continued to drop, raising concerns about his long-term effectiveness. For the Twins, avoiding the temptation to invest in aging pitchers with uncertain futures has allowed them to keep their payroll flexible and avoid being saddled with potentially dead money.

Focus on Younger Talent
Instead of locking themselves into contracts with Gray and Maeda, the Twins wisely focused on developing and acquiring younger talent. The emergence of younger pitchers like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober has been a bright spot for the team. Before his shoulder injury, Ryan took a step forward in 2024, showing the potential to be a future ace. Ober has also been a consistent performer, providing stability at the top of the rotation.

Other young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews are also getting a chance this season, which might not have been possible with veterans occupying the back of the rotation. By prioritizing youth, the Twins have saved money and set themselves up for long-term success. Younger pitchers tend to be more resilient and have higher upside, making them a better investment for a team looking to build a sustainable winner.

Financial Flexibility
Re-signing Gray and Maeda would have likely required significant financial commitments, limiting the Twins’ ability to address other areas of need. Gray’s performance in 2023 positioned him for a lucrative contract (3 years, $75 million), while Maeda, despite his age and injury history, could still command a respectable deal (2 years, $24 million) given his track record. Instead, the Twins used their financial flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster.

This strategic decision has paid off. The Twins were able to add depth to their bullpen and make critical upgrades to their lineup, which has helped them remain competitive in the AL Central. With the money saved from not re-signing Gray and Maeda, the Twins have been better positioned to adapt to the challenges of the 2024 season.

Avoiding Decline in Performance
Pitchers often face a steep decline in their mid-to-late 30s, and the Twins were likely wary of committing to Gray and Maeda for this reason. Decline in velocity, increased susceptibility to injuries, and decreased overall effectiveness are common issues pitchers face as they age.

Both Gray and Maeda have shown signs of this decline in 2024. Gray’s once-dominant curveball has lost some of its bite, leading to higher home run rates, while Maeda’s control has become more erratic, leading to more walks and fewer strikeouts. These struggles would have been magnified had the Twins re-signed them, potentially making the back end of their contracts a significant burden.

The Trade Market and Future Flexibility
The decision not to re-sign Gray and Maeda also kept the Twins flexible heading into the 2024 trade deadline. With a younger, more dynamic rotation, the Twins have been able to assess their needs more accurately as the season progresses. Should they find themselves in contention, they have the prospect capital and financial flexibility to make a big move at the deadline without the albatross of aging pitchers on their payroll.

This strategic positioning is crucial for a team looking to compete not just in 2024 but in future seasons as well. By avoiding long-term commitments to Gray and Maeda, the Twins have kept their options open, allowing them to pursue opportunities that could make a more significant impact.

The decision to let Gray and Maeda walk in free agency was a calculated risk that proved wise. The Twins have avoided the pitfalls of aging and declining pitchers while positioning themselves for both current and future success. By focusing on younger talent, maintaining financial flexibility, and keeping their options open, the Twins have set themselves up to dodge the bullet that re-signing Gray and Maeda might have been. As the 2024 season unfolds, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this was the right move for the team’s long-term vision.

What are your impressions of Gray and Maeda during the 2024 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[DJL44]

This team has all sorts of financial flexibility. It would be defendable if they had spent the money on someone else instead of just putting it in their pocket.

Sonny Gray has a FIP of 3.21 and 135 innings pitched. He is having a season right in line with his last 5 seasons. The Cardinals got a bargain, especially when you consider how backloaded that contract is.

[Beast]

They used the financial flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster?

I’d disagree that happened.

Joe Ryan is a future ace?

He’s darn near 30, has never put together a full season, gives up a ton of home runs, has one career playoff inning, has a career ERA around 4.00, and had a 3.60 ERA this year before likely being done for the year.

I’d grant no more than decent #2 guy to good #3 guy.

Maeda and his deal shouldn’t limit anyone’s “flexibility” and is inconsequential.  Gray’s contact may be constraining for a couple years (if you couldn’t trade him later), but this team is likely leading the division if he’d been in the rotation all year vs. some of the alternatives.

In order for anything positive to come out of it, they’d have to actually use the resources saved at some point.  They wouldn’t even use a fraction of it to bolster the bullpen in free agency or the deadline.  If they had, they’d also likely be in first place.  

[TopGunn#22]

Cody, I agree 100% that not resigning either was a good move.  Maeda has been horrible for the Tigers.  He started showing signs of falling off a cliff last year with his uneven performances and he's been a dumpster fire this year.  

Gray is the tougher call, but I thought there would be no way he could duplicate his 2023 CY Young runner-up season.  I think the Cardinals overpaid and Sonny is their problem now.

I disagree with the idea that not signing them provided the Twins with "flexibility" at the trade deadline.  The Twins would have been stiff as a board at the deadline no matter what.  They had clear needs for one rotation spot and one or two bullpen arms and the FO/Ownership fell flat.  While Cleveland and Kansas City made moves, the Twins added a pitcher that their manager clearly has no confidence in using in any kind of high leverage situation.  The Twins would have been better off calling Varland up to take the spot Richards now occupies.  Instead, we're treading water while Cleveland stumbles and the Royals are breathing down our neck.  

Now, had they not been entirely focused on cutting payroll and instead invested that money this off season in Blake Snell, you'd be looking at a playoff rotation of Snell, Lopez and Ober.  I'd ride with that.  Or, if they had traded Kepler to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes you would be seeing more Wallner & Larnach and at least have a veteran major league LH starter in your rotation. 

It does not bode well for the Twins to be so heavily reliant on THREE rookie pitchers no matter what their talent and potential is.  One rookie pitcher...OK.  THREE?  It's like watching Mullins play QB for the Vikings.  Something good might happen, but that interception is lurking just around the corner.  

[Blyleven2011]

Saving money on gray and maeda to spend elsewhere  ...

The twins did not dodge the bullet in signing Margot and his inability to pinch hitting  , re- signing farmer hasnt helped eitheŕ  , twins have pinch hit the most of any teams and the results have been poor ...

The twins took on two contracts in trades for 2024 ( margot and descalfini ) only because the previous team paid down on the contracts  ...

We dodged the bullet on payroll and that is all we did  , descalfini never pitched beyond spring training ...

We'll see how gray pans out today against the twins ...

[Karbo]

I agree that letting Maeda go was a good decision, but the jury is still out on Gray. I would much rather have Gray out there than either Festa or Mathews.

[USAFChief]

"The decision not to re-sign Gray and Maeda also kept the Twins flexible heading into the 2024 trade deadline. ... Should they find themselves in contention, they have the prospect capital and financial flexibility to make a big move at the deadline without the albatross of aging pitchers on their payroll."

 

Someone let Mr Christie know the trade deadline was a month ago. 

[Brandon]

The Twins were only interested in Maeda on a 1 year deal.  If he signed a 1 year deal I bet he would have better results for the Twins but he still would be trending down this year.  120 innings of 4.74 ERA for 12 million while not ideal is not the end of the world either.  
The Jury is still out on Gray.  I feel like he’s been solid this season but there are two more to go.  Woods-Richardson has made their exits ok.  

[Doctor Gast]

Gray & Maeda were big name SPs, where in FA demand big money. IMO FA most of the time is waste of money. I had no faith in Maeda & Gray wasn't going to give you a lot of innings for what you're paying for. Even if we had the money, I'd rather spend it on extending our younger talent. Gray started out well with STL but have no idea what's he doing now nor care.

[Rufus]

I firmly agree with not signing any player over 30 to long term contracts.  What would the Twins do now if they were stuck with Gray for 2 more years?  His ERA has gone way up since the All Star break,  They have three established starters,  three promising rookies now in the rotation,  Morris is looking really good at St. Paul and there are several more promising arms behind him.  It isn't about how much money you spend it's about how you spend your money.

[Fatbat]

I agree that it isn't good to sign aging vets to long term deals. Seems like a no brainer.  The FO obviously knew that the farm is full of guys about to arrive and they have.  Two more waves of young guys behind them. 
 

Ryan will always be a potential ace. But will he ever be an actual one?

I’d trust the 3 rookies in the playoffs.  They need to walk thru that fire to take a step in their development. 

[GNess]

This entire argument is framed by the budget restraints the franchise has imposed on its self. However unreasonable these restraints are they are the reality. Given that not resigning Gray and Maeda makes some sense. Of course, the Twins are embracing the in-season MLB development of young pitchers - what other choice have they given themselves?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Even if we had the money, I'd rather spend it on extending our younger talent. 

That is defensible. They aren't doing that either.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

One other benefit we got Cody was the pick obtained by offering Gray the QO.  So not all benefits were financial-related.

We have a name on that pick now: Kyle DeBarge. We'll see how that pans out, although they did pick him underslot and give some of the money to Hill.

[bean5302]

Maeda lost velocity again, and we've all seen what happens there so the Twins were right to skip him over, but Sonny Gray has looked dominant most of the year again this year, save for 3 very unlucky starts recently.

Sonny Gray through All Star Break - 3.34 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.80 xFIP
Sonny Gray after All Star Break - 5.50 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 2.69 xFIP
Sonny Gray overall - 3.91 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 2.77 xFIP

Gray's curve has lost some of it's bite? His stuff+ rating this year is the best of his entire career, including his curveball rating at 119 vs. career 111 and his slider at 151 vs. career 128. His pitches are more difficult to hit vs. the average competition than they've ever been in his career.

If the Twins make the playoffs with 3 rookies in the rotation (a scenario which you'd struggle to find an analyst, front office or owner saying is desirable), they still don't have a Sonny Gray caliber pitcher in their rotation. This team is at a disadvantage vs. most playoff teams when it comes to the likely starters for the first 2-3 games, though Lopez has finally shown some signs he could be a major asset. The Twins absolutely need him to be the best version of himself to have a fair chance, provided they make the playoffs.

It's not during the regular season that ace starter is such a weapon, it's when you're in must win games and your lineup is facing an ace pitcher from the other team.

[Hrbeks Divot]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"The decision not to re-sign Gray and Maeda also kept the Twins flexible heading into the 2024 trade deadline. ... Should they find themselves in contention, they have the prospect capital and financial flexibility to make a big move at the deadline without the albatross of aging pitchers on their payroll."

 

Someone let Mr Christie know the trade deadline was a month ago. 

Exactly. Was this article written two months ago and just posted now? No problem with not so going either as it certainly gave us some more flexibility. We WERE setup and failed to do anything at the deadline.

[DKrz56]

"The Twins were able to add depth to their bullpen and make critical upgrades to their lineup, which has helped them remain competitive in the AL Central. With the money saved from not re-signing Gray and Maeda, the Twins have been better positioned to adapt to the challenges of the 2024 season."

I stopped reading at the above point in the article. This implies they spent the money they saved from not signing Gray...clearly not the case. Also, the twins clearly would be better off if Gray was just inserted into their current rotation. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

They were right about Maeda, and Gray never would have come back. But it is frustrating they didn’t acquire a different playoff level starter, especially this past offseason. 

[Parfigliano]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They were right about Maeda, and Gray never would have come back. But it is frustrating they didn’t acquire a different playoff level starter, especially this past offseason. 

With Rocco here Gray wasnt coming back.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

With Rocco here Gray wasnt coming back.

The two of them just couldn’t get close enough. Doesn’t mean that happens with every starter obviously. But Gray wanted elsewhere. 

[Linus]

The article implies that the Twins were seriously considering bringing them back and opted not to at the last minute. The Twins didn’t even consider bringing them back which was the correct decision. Gray said as much in yesterday’s Trib. He knew right away they weren’t going after him. The idea that the saved money was critical to building the lineup is just false. It was the largest chunk of the $30 million payroll reduction. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Maeda lost velocity again, and we've all seen what happens there so the Twins were right to skip him over, but Sonny Gray has looked dominant most of the year again this year, save for 3 very unlucky starts recently.

Sonny Gray through All Star Break - 3.34 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.80 xFIP
Sonny Gray after All Star Break - 5.50 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 2.69 xFIP
Sonny Gray overall - 3.91 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 2.77 xFIP

Gray's curve has lost some of it's bite? His stuff+ rating this year is the best of his entire career, including his curveball rating at 119 vs. career 111 and his slider at 151 vs. career 128. His pitches are more difficult to hit vs. the average competition than they've ever been in his career.

If the Twins make the playoffs with 3 rookies in the rotation (a scenario which you'd struggle to find an analyst, front office or owner saying is desirable), they still don't have a Sonny Gray caliber pitcher in their rotation. This team is at a disadvantage vs. most playoff teams when it comes to the likely starters for the first 2-3 games, though Lopez has finally shown some signs he could be a major asset. The Twins absolutely need him to be the best version of himself to have a fair chance, provided they make the playoffs.

It's not during the regular season that ace starter is such a weapon, it's when you're in must win games and your lineup is facing an ace pitcher from the other team.

xFIP assumes every pitcher gets an average rate of 1 HR per 10 flyballs (10% HR/FB). Here are the homeruns Sonny has given up since the break. 

7/20 - Marcel Ozuna 108.3 & 107.9 mph EV, Austin Riley 112.4 mph, Eddie Rosario 106.3 mph (all 4 were HR in either 29 or 30 parks in MLB)

8/1 - Seiya Suzuki 110 mph EV, HR in 30/30 parks

8/6 - Brandon Lowe 104.4 mph EV, HR in 30/30 parks

8/12 - Elly De La Cruz 102.2 mph EV (26/30), Spencer Steer 96.3 & 97.7 mph (HR in 12 & 19 parks)

8/18 - Shohei 113.5 mph EV, HR in 30/30 parks

Maybe 1 of those HR is bad luck. He deserved the rest of 'em.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

With Rocco here Gray wasnt coming back.

Can't believe that this tired and demonstrably false narrative still has legs. He's said worse publicly about Marmol than he did about Rocco. 

Last season Sonny averaged 5.8 IP and 88 pitches per start.

This season Sonny averages 5.9 IP and 88 pitches per start.

He was just quoted talking about how this team handling pitching changed how he approached pitching and that it helped him a lot.

[DocBauer]

Did they dodge a bullet by not signing Maeda? Yes.

Did they dodge a bullet by not signing Gray? Yes and no. With Ryan out, I'd rather have Gray in the rotation. But he's slipped a bit expertly and isn't getting younger. And he's still owed some good $ the next 2 years. While we certainly miss Ryan at the moment, having SWR in the rotation has been great, and will pay future benefits at a low cost. Further, Festa and Matthews are getting great experience at the moment.

So I'm going to answer yes and no.

The problem is a general inaccuracy in regard to the "savings" being re-invested on the team in any way. Completely false narrative unless we begin to see changes in 2025 and beyond. 

Just ONE proven, trustworthy pen arm and a better RH 4th OF with any "savings" could have really helped. Maybe another 3 to 5 wins at this point?

So yes...and no...and a PLEASE.

[Danchat]

I don't see the argument against Gray. His numbers are very strong and his FIP suggests his ERA will decrease. Of course it's risky to pay pitchers into their mid-30s, but do you the Cardinals regret handing out that deal? Absolutely not.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Add another 30/30 HR to Sonny's 2nd half total tonight.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

This team has all sorts of financial flexibility. It would be defendable if they had spent the money on someone else instead of just putting it in their pocket.

Sonny Gray has a FIP of 3.21 and 135 innings pitched. He is having a season right in line with his last 5 seasons. The Cardinals got a bargain, especially when you consider how backloaded that contract is.

Flexibility with not taking on $35M per year for these two guys extends past 2024.

In ‘23, in games started by these two, the Twins had a losing record. Approximately, 6 games under in their starts combined. ERA is great (lack of run support sucked for Gray) but replacing the W’s is what needed to occur. Team has managed to do that and then some. Team has a better record by 10 plus games over this point in ‘23 with a Staff & Rotation ERA that’s much higher.

Gray’s ERA in ‘24 is going to be at least 4.00 after tonight’s game. He’s 1.22 runs per 9 innings higher than his ‘23 mark……,he’s 1/2 a run higher than his career 3.51 ERA. His FIP may be in line as you say but he’s not getting good results - not $25M/yr results. Granted, he may improve over next 5 weeks!

If Varland can slot into the Pen & Winder comes back up with more similar results, I think they’ll be fine through the next 6–10 weeks!

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

I don't see the argument against Gray. His numbers are very strong and his FIP suggests his ERA will decrease. Of course it's risky to pay pitchers into their mid-30s, but do you the Cardinals regret handing out that deal? Absolutely not.

His ERA is up 1.22 runs over ‘23 and one-half a run higher than his career mark of 3.51. I doubt the Cardinals love those numbers…….his ERA is over 4.00 after tonight.

He’s pitching a decent amount of innings.

He can improve or bounce back over his last 6-7 starts.

He started out well but has been steadily declining………they don’t regret it yet but they aren’t enamored with his performances.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

33 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Add another 30/30 HR to Sonny's 2nd half total tonight.

And another 28/30 (that's at least a 29/30 because that's definitely out in the Coors air)

[Rufus]

Maybe the front office and the "cheap" Pohlad's do have a clue as to what they are doing after all.