Why the Minnesota Twins Dodged a Bullet by Not Re-signing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda

This team has all sorts of financial flexibility. It would be defendable if they had spent the money on someone else instead of just putting it in their pocket.

Sonny Gray has a FIP of 3.21 and 135 innings pitched. He is having a season right in line with his last 5 seasons. The Cardinals got a bargain, especially when you consider how backloaded that contract is.

They used the financial flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster?

I’d disagree that happened.

Joe Ryan is a future ace?

He’s darn near 30, has never put together a full season, gives up a ton of home runs, has one career playoff inning, has a career ERA around 4.00, and had a 3.60 ERA this year before likely being done for the year.

I’d grant no more than decent #2 guy to good #3 guy.

Maeda and his deal shouldn’t limit anyone’s “flexibility” and is inconsequential.  Gray’s contact may be constraining for a couple years (if you couldn’t trade him later), but this team is likely leading the division if he’d been in the rotation all year vs. some of the alternatives.

In order for anything positive to come out of it, they’d have to actually use the resources saved at some point.  They wouldn’t even use a fraction of it to bolster the bullpen in free agency or the deadline.  If they had, they’d also likely be in first place.  

Cody, I agree 100% that not resigning either was a good move.  Maeda has been horrible for the Tigers.  He started showing signs of falling off a cliff last year with his uneven performances and he's been a dumpster fire this year.  

Gray is the tougher call, but I thought there would be no way he could duplicate his 2023 CY Young runner-up season.  I think the Cardinals overpaid and Sonny is their problem now.

I disagree with the idea that not signing them provided the Twins with "flexibility" at the trade deadline.  The Twins would have been stiff as a board at the deadline no matter what.  They had clear needs for one rotation spot and one or two bullpen arms and the FO/Ownership fell flat.  While Cleveland and Kansas City made moves, the Twins added a pitcher that their manager clearly has no confidence in using in any kind of high leverage situation.  The Twins would have been better off calling Varland up to take the spot Richards now occupies.  Instead, we're treading water while Cleveland stumbles and the Royals are breathing down our neck.  

Now, had they not been entirely focused on cutting payroll and instead invested that money this off season in Blake Snell, you'd be looking at a playoff rotation of Snell, Lopez and Ober.  I'd ride with that.  Or, if they had traded Kepler to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes you would be seeing more Wallner & Larnach and at least have a veteran major league LH starter in your rotation. 

It does not bode well for the Twins to be so heavily reliant on THREE rookie pitchers no matter what their talent and potential is.  One rookie pitcher...OK.  THREE?  It's like watching Mullins play QB for the Vikings.  Something good might happen, but that interception is lurking just around the corner.  

Saving money on gray and maeda to spend elsewhere  ...

The twins did not dodge the bullet in signing Margot and his inability to pinch hitting  , re- signing farmer hasnt helped eitheŕ  , twins have pinch hit the most of any teams and the results have been poor ...

The twins took on two contracts in trades for 2024 ( margot and descalfini ) only because the previous team paid down on the contracts  ...

We dodged the bullet on payroll and that is all we did  , descalfini never pitched beyond spring training ...

We'll see how gray pans out today against the twins ...

The Twins were only interested in Maeda on a 1 year deal.  If he signed a 1 year deal I bet he would have better results for the Twins but he still would be trending down this year.  120 innings of 4.74 ERA for 12 million while not ideal is not the end of the world either.  
The Jury is still out on Gray.  I feel like he’s been solid this season but there are two more to go.  Woods-Richardson has made their exits ok.  

Gray & Maeda were big name SPs, where in FA demand big money. IMO FA most of the time is waste of money. I had no faith in Maeda & Gray wasn't going to give you a lot of innings for what you're paying for. Even if we had the money, I'd rather spend it on extending our younger talent. Gray started out well with STL but have no idea what's he doing now nor care.

I firmly agree with not signing any player over 30 to long term contracts.  What would the Twins do now if they were stuck with Gray for 2 more years?  His ERA has gone way up since the All Star break,  They have three established starters,  three promising rookies now in the rotation,  Morris is looking really good at St. Paul and there are several more promising arms behind him.  It isn't about how much money you spend it's about how you spend your money.

I agree that it isn't good to sign aging vets to long term deals. Seems like a no brainer.  The FO obviously knew that the farm is full of guys about to arrive and they have.  Two more waves of young guys behind them. 
 

Ryan will always be a potential ace. But will he ever be an actual one?

I’d trust the 3 rookies in the playoffs.  They need to walk thru that fire to take a step in their development. 

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Even if we had the money, I'd rather spend it on extending our younger talent. 

That is defensible. They aren't doing that either.

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

One other benefit we got Cody was the pick obtained by offering Gray the QO.  So not all benefits were financial-related.

We have a name on that pick now: Kyle DeBarge. We'll see how that pans out, although they did pick him underslot and give some of the money to Hill.

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"The decision not to re-sign Gray and Maeda also kept the Twins flexible heading into the 2024 trade deadline. ... Should they find themselves in contention, they have the prospect capital and financial flexibility to make a big move at the deadline without the albatross of aging pitchers on their payroll."

 

Someone let Mr Christie know the trade deadline was a month ago. 

Exactly. Was this article written two months ago and just posted now? No problem with not so going either as it certainly gave us some more flexibility. We WERE setup and failed to do anything at the deadline.

"The Twins were able to add depth to their bullpen and make critical upgrades to their lineup, which has helped them remain competitive in the AL Central. With the money saved from not re-signing Gray and Maeda, the Twins have been better positioned to adapt to the challenges of the 2024 season."

I stopped reading at the above point in the article. This implies they spent the money they saved from not signing Gray...clearly not the case. Also, the twins clearly would be better off if Gray was just inserted into their current rotation. 

The article implies that the Twins were seriously considering bringing them back and opted not to at the last minute. The Twins didn’t even consider bringing them back which was the correct decision. Gray said as much in yesterday’s Trib. He knew right away they weren’t going after him. The idea that the saved money was critical to building the lineup is just false. It was the largest chunk of the $30 million payroll reduction. 

Maybe the front office and the "cheap" Pohlad's do have a clue as to what they are doing after all.   

13 hours ago, Beast said:

They used the financial flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster?

I’d disagree that happened.

Joe Ryan is a future ace?

He’s darn near 30, has never put together a full season, gives up a ton of home runs, has one career playoff inning, has a career ERA around 4.00, and had a 3.60 ERA this year before likely being done for the year.

I’d grant no more than decent #2 guy to good #3 guy.

Maeda and his deal shouldn’t limit anyone’s “flexibility” and is inconsequential.  Gray’s contact may be constraining for a couple years (if you couldn’t trade him later), but this team is likely leading the division if he’d been in the rotation all year vs. some of the alternatives.

In order for anything positive to come out of it, they’d have to actually use the resources saved at some point.  They wouldn’t even use a fraction of it to bolster the bullpen in free agency or the deadline.  If they had, they’d also likely be in first place.  

Man, what a terrible take on Ryan.  

I could make all sorts of arguments for him, but I'll just say this:  I would trust him to start a playoff game for us.  

When he went down it hurt bad.  We'll have to piece together our #3,4 starts in the playoffs now.  

Don't tear down a great pitcher to make your speculative arguments.