How Improved Are the AL’s Other Playoff Contenders Following the MLB Trade Deadline?

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s Trade Deadline has passed, and some contenders have made blockbuster moves while other clubs are focused more on internal options to improve their rosters. Let’s examine the AL’s ever-changing playoff picture to see how the Twins stack up.

The Twins have two paths to the playoffs: the AL Central title is still in reach, or the club can qualify as one of the three Wild Card teams. Minnesota has been behind Cleveland in the AL Central for most of the season, but the Guardians showed some weaknesses in July. However, Cleveland isn’t the only team that Twins fans need to keep their eye on in the coming weeks. Let’s break down the AL Central and Wild Card race.

AL Central Race (Record, Games Ahead/Behind the Twins)
Cleveland Guardians (65-42, +6.5)
Trade Deadline Additions: OF Lane Thomas, RHP Alex Cobb
Cleveland continues to outshoot their expectations with the AL’s best record. The Twins have played well since their terrible 7-13 record to start the season but continue to be behind the Guardians. Cleveland has an even tighter payroll than the Twins, making adding impact players at the trade deadline difficult. Their farm system has dropped on national rankings, and Twins fans might have hoped that the Guardians would go all-in by the deadline. However, that didn’t happen, and now it looks like a three-team race for the division title. 

Kansas City Royals (59-49, 0.0)
Trade Deadline Additions: RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Lucas Erceg, SS Paul DeJong
Kansas City surprised many by spending big this winter on Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, and Garrett Hampson. This was a team that lost 106 games last season, and these additions would only slightly move the needle. Instead, Kansas City started the season on a hot streak by winning over 60% of their games in April and May. Adding the players above helps with Kansas City’s depth and it could move the needle in the AL Central race. 

AL Wild Card Race (Record, Games Ahead/Behind the Twins)
New York Yankees (64-45, +4.5)
Trade Deadline Additions: OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Thomas Balboni Jr., RHP Mark Leiter Jr.
New York missed the playoffs last season, which the front office wanted to avoid in 2024. The Yankees made the most significant trade of the winter by acquiring Juan Soto in his final year before free agency. Yankees GM Brian Cashman addressed some of the team’s weaknesses by acquiring the players listed above at the deadline. Can New York hunt down Baltimore and win the AL East? Otherwise, the Twins might be forced to go to Yankee Stadium for a Wild Card match-up. 

Boston Red Sox (56-50, -2.0)
Trade Deadline Additions: RHP Quinn Priester, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Lucas Sims
Boston is in third place in the AL East but only one game behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. Many projection models had the Red Sox pegged as the worst team in the division, especially since the team finished 23 games out of first place in 2023. Jarren Duran has played at an MVP level, and other players have compiled surprise performances to keep Boston in the race. There will be some key AL East games in the weeks ahead to decide who wins the division and who earns a Wild Card spot.  

Seattle Mariners (57-52, -2.5)
Trade Deadline Additions: OF Randy Arozarena, RHP Yimi Garcia, DH Justin Turner, RHP JT Chargois
Seattle made aggressive moves early in the trade deadline cycle to bolster the outfield and pitching staff. Last season, the Mariners missed the playoffs even with a better record than Minnesota. Clearly, the front office is trying to avoid last season’s shortcomings. Seattle has struggled since the All-Star Break but is clearly in the mix for the last Wild Card spot. 

Tampa Bay Rays (55-52, -3.5)
Trade Deadline Additions: INF Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, OF Dylan Carlson,
Tampa Bay is close to a Wild Card spot and traded away multiple big-league pieces, including Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, and Jason Adam. The Rays have been run like this for quite some time, with the front office trading away MLB pieces to rebuild the farm system. It will be interesting to see if Tampa Bay can stay in the race with new faces populating their roster. 

Which teams are the biggest threats to the Twins? What will it take for Minnesota to track down Cleveland for the AL Central title? Leave a comment to start the discussion. 

 

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[Parfigliano]

TC added Dobnak (obligatory) so its just like a trade.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd add Hunter Harvey to the guys that Kansas City added prior to the deadline, just for listing purposes. 

Overall, the best name going to any team here is probably Arozarena to Seattle right? I don't know that I see a lot of difference makers listed otherwise.

[Karbo]

KC has made some good moves since the end of last season. It seems that bringing the new guys has helped the younger guys learn how to win. Certainly a team that should be watched.

[tony&rodney]

Back in March I thought 83-87 wins would be enough to win the AL Central. I also stated that head to head victory totals could be the difference. Well, those guesses were off. There is a pretty good chance that three AL Central teams survive to make the playoffs, but it sure looks like it might take 90-93 wins to win the ALC division.

I still think the Twins can win the division but August will be huge, despite a tough schedule. because 18 of 28 games are at Target Field. Cleveland and Kansas City don't look like they are going to implode either, so the Twins need to win against those two teams and go on a roll.

The only teams that look improved to me are KC and Seattle. The Royals picked up some solid relievers and the Mariners got some bats. I'm not too impressed by the players that shifted teams.

The improvement for the Twins will have to come from the return of Correa and consistency from a pretty talented but unproven bunch of players (Lewis, Festa, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin). They also need continued fine play from Castro and Woods Richardson. Finally, every good team relies on their top players and veterans of which the Twins have a few (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, bullpen, Buxton, Kepler, Santana, and Margot. The catchers just need to catch the ball. 

[Road trip]

It's hard not to be a little jealous of the KC fans.  The Royals were absolutely awful last year, but ownership went all in on improving the team.  When they see an opportunity they are very aggressive and this year it has worked out well.

Having said that, I like the Twins present day roster and minor league system better than the Royals.  I think the Twins still finish ahead of them by multiple games.  But most improved team this year?  No doubt, it is the Royals.

[LambchoP]

We have some very important games against CLE and I believe one more series with KC. If we can get healthy and play well in those games we have a real good postseason shot. It'd be great to catch the Guardians, win the division and get a bye. We do NOT want to play the Yankees in a three game wildcard series. We all know how that will end...

[bean5302]

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals.

Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low.
https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league

4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

[chpettit19]

Going to be a very fun last couple months of the season. Looks to me like 8 teams fighting for 6 spots. Texas has a lot of talent and are hoping to get some big name guys back (and just got Jung back) so it's possible they have a 12 game winning streak in them to jump right back into the fray as well. Twins can't afford a lengthy losing streak of any sort. 

KC and Cleveland both have significantly better run differentials than the Twins. KC actually has the best expected w/l record in the division. They are +1 in the win column on the Twins right now. I agree with others that winning the division is important and they need to do all they can to get that top spot. Cleveland has 55 games left. If they go 28-27 they end up with 93 wins. The Royals have 53 games left. They need to go 34-19 to top 93 wins. The Twins have 55 games left. They have to go 35-20 the rest of the way to top 93 wins. That is very little margin for error to take the division. Twins have their work cut out for them there.

[Karbo]

Looks to me like the only way to pass Cle is to pretty much sweep the remaining games we have them.

[Schmoeman5]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

 

"The Twins aren't in as good of position as I had expected them to be by now." Was that on a hunch? Or was that driven by statistics and all that regression that was sure to happen? Twins have KC breathing down their necks playing real good ball. Witt hitting nearly .500 for the month of July. Getting good pitching too. Cleveland has slowed down some yet still holds a larger lead than before the all-star break. Yeah they're just lucky. Those Fangraph % change dramatically with a 6 or 7 game winning or losing streaks. And I haven't even mentioned Correa who's dealing with Plantar fasciitis again. Albeit his other foot. If he comes back hitting near his career totals that's a plus. If he's last years version the Twins are in trouble.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins are to the Royals what the Guardians are to the Twins. 

I think the Twins win the season series and grab the #2 WC spot. I don't necessarily trust Boston or KC and wouldn't be shocked if the #3 WC spot goes to the team that doesn't win the AL West.

As for the division, I just don't see it. 8 games remaining. Just resigned to the Twins losing the tie-breaker. They're not going 7-1 against the Guards. 4-4 is more likely. In that scenario, could the Twins pick up 7 non head-to-head games by October? 

[jkcarew]

48 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Cleveland has slowed down some….

Um…sitting with the best record in baseball. Yep. Better than the Phillies. Better than the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Orioles. Also, better record than the Twins in their last 10 games.

So, not exactly looking terribly vulnerable at the moment.

[gman]

The Twins could always sign a couple more doctors, PT's and trainers to help keep their current core healthy. That would be like making a few good trades. Wouldn't cost anything but money? 🤔... Oh yeah. Everybody comes in once a week and gets a complete physical and a ouchee measure to see if they should be playing and getting a week off.

[Schmoeman5]

22 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Um…sitting with the best record in baseball. Yep. Better than the Phillies. Better than the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Orioles. Also, better record than the Twins in their last 10 games.

So, not exactly looking terribly vulnerable at the moment.

I was being sarcastic. They're 7-5 since the all-star break. So they have slowed down some. Point being, Twins have still lost ground to them

[Craig Arko]

This weekend Twins play the White Sox; Guardians play the Orioles. Chance to gain some ground?

[Parfigliano]

48 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

This weekend Twins play the White Sox; Guardians play the Orioles. Chance to gain some ground?

Big chance

[USAFChief]

How improved?

More than the Twins.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals.

Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low.
https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league

4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

We will know in the next 2 weeks.  Really need to sweep the Sox this weekend.  

[Brandon]

Lorenzen is probably who the Twins should have targeted but Kansas City big need is their offense not rotation.  They have 4 decent above average hitters and rest terrible.  Cleveland added depth 

Seattle is the only one who added a difference maker.

When I saw that the Pads gave up their 2 best prospect for Tanner Scott, that’s when I became glad we stood pat on the trade deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zipsing-up-the-trade-deadline/

Looks like everyone in the AL that the Twins are fighting with got more better (making me wonder how the math actually works). 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zipsing-up-the-trade-deadline/

Looks like everyone in the AL that the Twins are fighting with got more better (making me wonder how the math actually works). 

In defense of Falvey, he further improved his PR making it seem like probably Detroit and Chicago were asking for a lot more from the Twins than other teams intentionally because it was inside the division, though it makes no sense from a rental perspective as it doesn't make the Twins better next year if they get Flaherty or some other rental.

Falvey is definitely better in interviews and in front of the camera than, say, Dave St. Peter, Joe Pohlad or Thad Levine.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

"The Twins aren't in as good of position as I had expected them to be by now." Was that on a hunch? Or was that driven by statistics and all that regression that was sure to happen? Twins have KC breathing down their necks playing real good ball. Witt hitting nearly .500 for the month of July. Getting good pitching too. Cleveland has slowed down some yet still holds a larger lead than before the all-star break. Yeah they're just lucky. Those Fangraph % change dramatically with a 6 or 7 game winning or losing streaks. And I haven't even mentioned Correa who's dealing with Plantar fasciitis again. Albeit his other foot. If he comes back hitting near his career totals that's a plus. If he's last years version the Twins are in trouble.

Some of both. The Twins need to pound the Guardians into the ground for my personal happiness. I'm not sure why I dislike Cleveland so much, but I just don't like that city to have nice things. It has to remain the same as the hastily made tourism videos.

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zipsing-up-the-trade-deadline/

Looks like everyone in the AL that the Twins are fighting with got more better (making me wonder how the math actually works). 

Yet the Twins still retain a very much higher percentage chance of making the playoffs than those trailing them in the standings. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Lorenzen is probably who the Twins should have targeted but Kansas City big need is their offense not rotation.  They have 4 decent above average hitters and rest terrible.  Cleveland added depth 

Seattle is the only one who added a difference maker.

When I saw that the Pads gave up their 2 best prospect for Tanner Scott, that’s when I became glad we stood pat on the trade deadline. 

While Lorenzen is a better 5th starter than what the Royals have I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Festa’s. In the playoffs he becomes the long reliever. If you need a long reliever the game is already lost and you could throw anybody out there 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd add Hunter Harvey to the guys that Kansas City added prior to the deadline, just for listing purposes. 

Overall, the best name going to any team here is probably Arozarena to Seattle right? I don't know that I see a lot of difference makers listed otherwise.

Chisholm may be a inference maker in New York,

[Blyleven2011]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

How improved?

More than the Twins.

We need a major league owner  !!!

Even the royal fans are more excited since the off-season and deadline moves  , and it took a new ownership  that is looking out for the interest of the fans ...

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Brandon said:

Lorenzen is probably who the Twins should have targeted but Kansas City big need is their offense not rotation.  They have 4 decent above average hitters and rest terrible.  Cleveland added depth 

Seattle is the only one who added a difference maker.

When I saw that the Pads gave up their 2 best prospect for Tanner Scott, that’s when I became glad we stood pat on the trade deadline. 

Probable Wildcard foes:

Baltimore - New York - Red Sox - Royals

Orioles have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

Yankees have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

Red Sox have 8 guys with OPS+ over 100

Royals have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

TWINS have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

I think that we can compete with any Team offensively once Correa is healthy - no doubt!

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We need a major league owner  !!!

Even the royal fans are more excited since the off-season and deadline moves  , and it took a new ownership  that is looking out for the interest of the fans ...

The Royals didn’t promote a Wallner level hitter though.  I think he is a much more exciting addition.  Festa has had 2 good appearances in a row after the first two where he gave up runs but still pitched 5 innings to save the pen some.  We have better internal reinforcements than anyone as we also have the return of Odyssey… Randy Dobnak.  

[jkcarew]

On 8/1/2024 at 1:01 PM, Craig Arko said:

This weekend Twins play the White Sox; Guardians play the Orioles. Chance to gain After the beat down Cleveland put on the Orioles yesterday, if they even win 1 of the remaining 3, the Twins would only pick up 1 or 2 games.

Well, kinda. After the beat down Cleveland put on the Orioles yesterday, even if they only win 1 of the next 3, the Twins are looking at picking up 1 or 2 games. And I wouldn’t bet on the Orioles winning 2 of the next 3 in Cleveland.

With a current 6.5 game gap, Twins probably need to dominate Cleveland in their remaining matchups regardless. We’re getting very close to the point where wild card would be the only realistic path.