How Improved Are the AL’s Other Playoff Contenders Following the MLB Trade Deadline?

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Probable Wildcard foes:

Baltimore - New York - Red Sox - Royals

Orioles have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

Yankees have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

Red Sox have 8 guys with OPS+ over 100

Royals have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

TWINS have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

I think that we can compete with any Team offensively once Correa is healthy - no doubt!

True.

But this only carries over to the actual matchup if you assume the respective pitching performances will be equal. And the Twins pitching hasn’t been even too close to the equal of any of these clubs with the exception of Boston.

Hence, the frustration with the deadline.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Royals didn’t promote a Wallner level hitter though.  I think he is a much more exciting addition.  Festa has had 2 good appearances in a row after the first two where he gave up runs but still pitched 5 innings to save the pen some.  We have better internal reinforcements than anyone as we also have the return of Odyssey… Randy Dobnak.  

I'm still not quite sure what kind of player is goibg to be about wallner  , yes when he connects it is impressive the power he has , but the strikeouts give me concern , he has been better of late  ...

The regression of Julien and wallner this spring  , but others were off to a slow start  too  ...

Since we didn't make any addional  players , I would like to advocate keirsey Jr  and severino  be given a look at solidify our lineup with consistency  ...

Nice to see dobnak make it back  , let's hope his story continues   ,  Festa has 4 starts , no opinion  on him ...

Kansas city  addressed pitching needs last off season and the deadline  and the off season additions helped them get to the deadline  and then make additional pitching additions , there is not to many names on their pitching staff that was there last year  ...

As I stated,  the Royals and fans have to feel pretty good about at least a wild card or maybe the divisional winner chance , their odds went up   ...

Pitching is what wins games and the royals certainlyhave improved their's , not saying we don't have good pitching , I like our top 3 starters , a good lefthander would have been a nice addition 

[Brandon]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm still not quite sure what kind of player is goibg to be about wallner  , yes when he connects it is impressive the power he has , but the strikeouts give me concern , he has been better of late  ...

The regression of Julien and wallner this spring  , but others were off to a slow start  too  ...

Since we didn't make any addional  players , I would like to advocate keirsey Jr  and severino  be given a look at solidify our lineup with consistency  ...

Nice to see dobnak make it back  , let's hope his story continues   ,  Festa has 4 starts , no opinion  on him ...

Kansas city  addressed pitching needs last off season and the deadline  and the off season additions helped them get to the deadline  and then make additional pitching additions , there is not to many names on their pitching staff that was there last year  ...

As I stated,  the Royals and fans have to feel pretty good about at least a wild card or maybe the divisional winner chance , their odds went up   ...

Pitching is what wins games and the royals certainlyhave improved their's , not saying we don't have good pitching , I like our top 3 starters , a good lefthander would have been a nice addition 

I agree that a good lefthander would be nice, but the Twins retained or readdressed their depth and signed Santana and a few relievers.  It’s nice to see the Woods-Richardson develop into that 4th starter and it looks like Festa, or Paddack, or Mathew’s or Dobnak could be that 5th starter.  I like we have options that all deserve a chance.  Also Varland but I think it’s time to either move to the pen or in a trade..

[Blyleven2011]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I agree that a good lefthander would be nice, but the Twins retained or readdressed their depth and signed Santana and a few relievers.  It’s nice to see the Woods-Richardson develop into that 4th starter and it looks like Festa, or Paddack, or Mathew’s or Dobnak could be that 5th starter.  I like we have options that all deserve a chance.  Also Varland but I think it’s time to either move to the pen or in a trade..

Yes santana has turned out to be a good clutch hitter and mvp worthy defense  , not bad for an aging veteran that is playing like a youngster  , I'd start thinking of an extension  for santana  , he's definitely strengthened first base  ...

1 year with a 2nd year option ... 

Let's get the pen back to where it was at the end of last season  , minus Stewart  who is injured and may not pitch again this year  , seems like he takes forever to heal after being out on the IL list  ...

SWR has pitched better than anyone' imagined , but can he maintain the endurance , he did finish strong last season in AAA  , so that is encouraging , as far as the 5th starter goes it's going to be a team effort  , I really want paddack if healthy and varland in the pen  like last year  ...

[Major League Ready]

On 8/1/2024 at 10:55 AM, bean5302 said:

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals.

Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low.
https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league

4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

That's a really interesting odds summary.  It really gets to the core of the discussion here of the impact of what they did or did not do on the likelihood of winning the WS.  The Twins had a 6.3% chance of winning the WS before the deadline moves.  You are good with numbers and analysis.  How much would you estimate the Twins odds would have gone up had they traded for say Kikuchi and Scott?    

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That's a really interesting odds summary.  It really gets to the core of the discussion here of the impact of what they did or did not do on the likelihood of winning the WS.  The Twins had a 6.3% chance of winning the WS before the deadline moves.  You are good with numbers and analysis.  How much would you estimate the Twins odds would have gone up had they traded for say Kikuchi and Scott?    

Not much, IMHO. I don't believe in Kikuchi at all as a playoff guy. I'd rather have Lopez, Ryan and Ober on the bump, and I'd suspect most models would feel neutralish as well. My feeling was the Twins needed an "ace" to significantly improve their odds. Scott's great, but how much a lefty reliever impacts the Twins chances is pretty debatable if they're in the hole after the starter walks off the field after the 5th or 6th inning. I believe in Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala, and Griffin Jax. I think the Twins have the power in the bullpen they need to keep close games from getting away from them in the playoffs.