How Improved Are the AL’s Other Playoff Contenders Following the MLB Trade Deadline?

Back in March I thought 83-87 wins would be enough to win the AL Central. I also stated that head to head victory totals could be the difference. Well, those guesses were off. There is a pretty good chance that three AL Central teams survive to make the playoffs, but it sure looks like it might take 90-93 wins to win the ALC division.

I still think the Twins can win the division but August will be huge, despite a tough schedule. because 18 of 28 games are at Target Field. Cleveland and Kansas City don't look like they are going to implode either, so the Twins need to win against those two teams and go on a roll.

The only teams that look improved to me are KC and Seattle. The Royals picked up some solid relievers and the Mariners got some bats. I'm not too impressed by the players that shifted teams.

The improvement for the Twins will have to come from the return of Correa and consistency from a pretty talented but unproven bunch of players (Lewis, Festa, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin). They also need continued fine play from Castro and Woods Richardson. Finally, every good team relies on their top players and veterans of which the Twins have a few (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, bullpen, Buxton, Kepler, Santana, and Margot. The catchers just need to catch the ball. 

It's hard not to be a little jealous of the KC fans.  The Royals were absolutely awful last year, but ownership went all in on improving the team.  When they see an opportunity they are very aggressive and this year it has worked out well.

Having said that, I like the Twins present day roster and minor league system better than the Royals.  I think the Twins still finish ahead of them by multiple games.  But most improved team this year?  No doubt, it is the Royals.

We have some very important games against CLE and I believe one more series with KC. If we can get healthy and play well in those games we have a real good postseason shot. It'd be great to catch the Guardians, win the division and get a bye. We do NOT want to play the Yankees in a three game wildcard series. We all know how that will end...

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

 

"The Twins aren't in as good of position as I had expected them to be by now." Was that on a hunch? Or was that driven by statistics and all that regression that was sure to happen? Twins have KC breathing down their necks playing real good ball. Witt hitting nearly .500 for the month of July. Getting good pitching too. Cleveland has slowed down some yet still holds a larger lead than before the all-star break. Yeah they're just lucky. Those Fangraph % change dramatically with a 6 or 7 game winning or losing streaks. And I haven't even mentioned Correa who's dealing with Plantar fasciitis again. Albeit his other foot. If he comes back hitting near his career totals that's a plus. If he's last years version the Twins are in trouble.

The Twins are to the Royals what the Guardians are to the Twins. 

I think the Twins win the season series and grab the #2 WC spot. I don't necessarily trust Boston or KC and wouldn't be shocked if the #3 WC spot goes to the team that doesn't win the AL West.

As for the division, I just don't see it. 8 games remaining. Just resigned to the Twins losing the tie-breaker. They're not going 7-1 against the Guards. 4-4 is more likely. In that scenario, could the Twins pick up 7 non head-to-head games by October? 

48 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Cleveland has slowed down some….

Um…sitting with the best record in baseball. Yep. Better than the Phillies. Better than the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Orioles. Also, better record than the Twins in their last 10 games.

So, not exactly looking terribly vulnerable at the moment.

22 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Um…sitting with the best record in baseball. Yep. Better than the Phillies. Better than the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Orioles. Also, better record than the Twins in their last 10 games.

So, not exactly looking terribly vulnerable at the moment.

I was being sarcastic. They're 7-5 since the all-star break. So they have slowed down some. Point being, Twins have still lost ground to them

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals.

Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low.
https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league

4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

We will know in the next 2 weeks.  Really need to sweep the Sox this weekend.  

Lorenzen is probably who the Twins should have targeted but Kansas City big need is their offense not rotation.  They have 4 decent above average hitters and rest terrible.  Cleveland added depth 

Seattle is the only one who added a difference maker.

When I saw that the Pads gave up their 2 best prospect for Tanner Scott, that’s when I became glad we stood pat on the trade deadline. 

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zipsing-up-the-trade-deadline/

Looks like everyone in the AL that the Twins are fighting with got more better (making me wonder how the math actually works). 

Yet the Twins still retain a very much higher percentage chance of making the playoffs than those trailing them in the standings. 

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Lorenzen is probably who the Twins should have targeted but Kansas City big need is their offense not rotation.  They have 4 decent above average hitters and rest terrible.  Cleveland added depth 

Seattle is the only one who added a difference maker.

When I saw that the Pads gave up their 2 best prospect for Tanner Scott, that’s when I became glad we stood pat on the trade deadline. 

While Lorenzen is a better 5th starter than what the Royals have I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Festa’s. In the playoffs he becomes the long reliever. If you need a long reliever the game is already lost and you could throw anybody out there 

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd add Hunter Harvey to the guys that Kansas City added prior to the deadline, just for listing purposes. 

Overall, the best name going to any team here is probably Arozarena to Seattle right? I don't know that I see a lot of difference makers listed otherwise.

Chisholm may be a inference maker in New York,

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

How improved?

More than the Twins.

We need a major league owner  !!!

Even the royal fans are more excited since the off-season and deadline moves  , and it took a new ownership  that is looking out for the interest of the fans ...

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We need a major league owner  !!!

Even the royal fans are more excited since the off-season and deadline moves  , and it took a new ownership  that is looking out for the interest of the fans ...

The Royals didn’t promote a Wallner level hitter though.  I think he is a much more exciting addition.  Festa has had 2 good appearances in a row after the first two where he gave up runs but still pitched 5 innings to save the pen some.  We have better internal reinforcements than anyone as we also have the return of Odyssey… Randy Dobnak.  

On 8/1/2024 at 1:01 PM, Craig Arko said:

This weekend Twins play the White Sox; Guardians play the Orioles. Chance to gain After the beat down Cleveland put on the Orioles yesterday, if they even win 1 of the remaining 3, the Twins would only pick up 1 or 2 games.

Well, kinda. After the beat down Cleveland put on the Orioles yesterday, even if they only win 1 of the next 3, the Twins are looking at picking up 1 or 2 games. And I wouldn’t bet on the Orioles winning 2 of the next 3 in Cleveland.

With a current 6.5 game gap, Twins probably need to dominate Cleveland in their remaining matchups regardless. We’re getting very close to the point where wild card would be the only realistic path.

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Probable Wildcard foes:

Baltimore - New York - Red Sox - Royals

Orioles have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

Yankees have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

Red Sox have 8 guys with OPS+ over 100

Royals have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100

TWINS have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100

I think that we can compete with any Team offensively once Correa is healthy - no doubt!

True.

But this only carries over to the actual matchup if you assume the respective pitching performances will be equal. And the Twins pitching hasn’t been even too close to the equal of any of these clubs with the exception of Boston.

Hence, the frustration with the deadline.