Bye Round or Bust: Another Reason for the Twins to Be Aggressive

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are continuing to close the gap widened by the Cleveland Guardians. The goal should be securing a postseason bye. The time to be aggressive is now.

 

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Since the season ended against the Houston Astros last year, the Minnesota Twins have gone out of their way to do almost everything wrong from an engagement perspective. They didn’t need to pull off a Juan Soto trade or sign Blake Snell to an ugly contract. What they did need to do was ride the positive momentum.

With ownership slashing payroll and the television debacle playing out, there have been multiple self-induced missteps. Now, suggesting that additional funds are nowhere to be found at the deadline, despite a potential influx to right the television situation, Minnesota is doing it to themselves again. In a position to make the playoffs, and with a core that can make noise, now isn’t the time to shy away from competition.

Of the teams mentioned above, the Twins may benefit most from putting themselves in a better position. Minnesota is not a juggernaut, and no amount of additions they make will change that reality. Suggesting that they may play flat if they have a first-round bye in the postseason only makes sense if you’d prefer Rocco Baldelli’s team play more games in hopes of winning a World Series. Postseason expansion has helped to keep more organizations engaged in the regular season, but the quick wild card series isn't something that the Twins should want to repeat.

The Twins should look to position themselves so that their path to the Fall Classic avoids as many pitfalls as possible. While they handled the Blue Jays in a short series a season ago, anything can happen over the course of three games. There are questions as to how the starting rotation will hold up behind the top three arms. The underbelly of the bullpen is concerning, and the roster must remain fresh if they are going to execute that final sprint.

Right now, the Twins farm system may be deeper than it has at any time in recent memory. The big league roster also doesn’t have gaping holes that need substantial additions to move it forward. There should be no reason that a starter and reliever, at minimum, can't be acquired. Derek Falvey should be told he can go for it, and that doesn’t mean he has to acquire gaudy salaries. What it does mean is that he should be allowed to operate in a manner where no stone is left unturned.

It’s possible that the Twins' ownership will further limit payroll next season with decreasing television revenues. Continuing to operate this way, while the team is drawing well and competitive, is a slap in the face to fans and a focus on winning. Minnesota is doing everything it can with the players they have now. There is room for them to do more by bringing in a few key reinforcements.

An additional investment, with long-term ripple effects, was warranted this offseason and didn’t happen. It’s warranted again right now, and there are just days for everyone in the front office to get aligned on making it happen. Now isn’t the time to just dip a toe in. Go after it.

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[LambchoP]

If we don't go for it now, then when? If we're going to win a world series it has to be now, with Correa and Buxton locked up, Royce Lewis under contract before he gets way too expensive for us. It wouldn't take much either. Just a rental starter and one good lefty reliever is all it would take imo...

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I totally agree.  I'm betting though that ownership will handcuffed the FO once again.  If they add salary via a trade they probably will need to either get cash in return or dump an equal amount by getting rid of an existing player or two.  I would be surprised if they ask Correa to waive his no trade deal so they can trade him.  For ownership, it's only about the money.

[tony&rodney]

Tanner Scott and Blake Snell for our Sunday evening?

What I keep going to is the cost in prospects. We have seen several trades already where it seemed the cost was relatively light MIA-NYY & MIA-AZ and a recent one where the price was dear (SD-TB). It is impossible to know how other teams value the players in the Twins organization much less how the Twins order their own prospects.

I would guess that there is a depth chart and thus areas where some good players could be seen as useful in a trade. Steer and CES were dealt under that model. So, what is the guess for who the Twins would dangle?

[terrydactyls]

Rumors of additional money from MLB and a new TV deal being eminent "should" allow the front office to go after both a starter and a reliever.   And after seeing the returns for needed players (teams' prospects in the 20's),  there is no possible explanation for the Twins not being aggressive - except maybe gross incompetence.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’ll say it again like I did this past offseason; Blake Snell is already a twin. His brother lives near Seattle. Bring him in for the playoff push, show you are truly going forward, and that will help with the tv push and playoff seats more than just about anyone else no?

[thelanges5]

If not now, when? FO will do their best with what Joe P gives them. 

[Karbo]

I fear we are in for a disappointing trade deadline. Other teams have already gotten some players for less than I expected. Yet this FO seems to think they can wait everyone out.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I fear we are in for a disappointing trade deadline. Other teams have already gotten some players for less than I expected. Yet this FO seems to think they can wait everyone out.

Falvey is pretty notorious for waiting too long in the offseason. Just have to see what he does at the deadline.

[bean5302]

Blake Snell is the target for the Twins. No other player makes more sense to turn the Twins into a real World Series competitor. 

Snell, Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson with Ober as a 5th starter for a long series if needed. That should hopefully be a rotation stronger than last year's come playoff time. With a shift away from the super strikeout prone lineup last year, the Twins have more steady run production as well.

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Blake Snell is the target for the Twins. No other player makes more sense to turn the Twins into a real World Series competitor. 

Snell, Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson with Ober as a 5th starter for a long series if needed. That should hopefully be a rotation stronger than last year's come playoff time. With a shift away from the super strikeout prone lineup last year, the Twins have more steady run production as well.

Should have already happened.

Snell will end up a Yankee. 

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Should have already happened.

Snell will end up a Yankee. 

I suspect the Giants are A) holding out till the last minute to make a decision on selling B) holding out for the best offer.

Snell may wind up with the Yankees since they were all-in on him this past offseason. The thing is, it won't take much for the Twins to beat any even mostly unreasonable offer. So they should frigging beat the offer.

[GNess]

Great article. FO - get busy!

[Eris]

Blake Snell has a complicated contract which makes it difficult to agree on trade valuation. He has an opt out after this season and a player option after 2025. Is the acquiring team getting a 2 -3 month rental or a player under contract for 1.5 to 2.5 seasons. 

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, Eris said:

Blake Snell has a complicated contract which makes it difficult to agree on trade valuation. He has an opt out after this season and a player option after 2025. Is the acquiring team getting a 2 -3 month rental or a player under contract for 1.5 to 2.5 seasons. 

There is no player option after 2025.

He's signed through this season, with a player option for 2025, at $30m, half of which is deferred. 

And he'll almost certainly opt out of 2025, barring catastrophic injury. 

For all practical purposes, you're getting a rental owed $5M.

 

 

[Linus]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Blake Snell is the target for the Twins. No other player makes more sense to turn the Twins into a real World Series competitor. 

Snell, Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson with Ober as a 5th starter for a long series if needed. That should hopefully be a rotation stronger than last year's come playoff time. With a shift away from the super strikeout prone lineup last year, the Twins have more steady run production as well.

This is spot on. If you are going to do something make a difference. Unfortunately the Twins will not risk the chance that he gets hurt and picks up the player option. 

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Eris said:

Blake Snell has a complicated contract which makes it difficult to agree on trade valuation. He has an opt out after this season and a player option after 2025. Is the acquiring team getting a 2 -3 month rental or a player under contract for 1.5 to 2.5 seasons. 

The option should make the cost in terms of prospects less.  He is either a rental or a liability in 2025 becasue the only way he opts in is if he gets hurt or performs very poorly.  

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is spot on. If you are going to do something make a difference. Unfortunately the Twins will not risk the chance that he gets hurt and picks up the player option. 

The player option doesn't hurt anybody that badly, though.

2024 - $5MM remaining
---------------------------------------
2025 - $15MM (player option)
2026 - $17MM signing bonus, non-transferable SF has to pay
2027 - $15MM deferred from 2025.

The acquiring team only has to pay $15MM for Snell in 2025, skips 2026, then has to pay $15MM in 2027 deferred. It's an easy player option to absorb.

[madtowntwin]

Just a thought here....But as a former Tampa Pitcher considering the Yankees and the AL East. Would you really want to go back and have to throw so often against that division again?? Granted - The new schedule format has softened that daunting proposition somewhat, but I've got to believe that he and his agent have to be saying: "Been there - Done that."

[Blyleven2011]

Good article  ....

Dip a toe or make a big splash ???

The MO of the FO  will always keep us guessing  ,  the bullpen  is a major concern , especially our lefthanders  , if we could have what we had in 2023 with varland , paddack  , Stewart  , theilbar , Jax,  Duran  and others , that would solidify tĥe bullpen , 2 montgs to go , figure it out quicly to overtake cleveland  ...

NO WILD CARD FOR THIS FAN , WIN THE DIVISION ....

Just strengthen the lefthanders  in bullpen  , puk would have been nice but to little to late ...

[bean5302]

59 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

Just a thought here....But as a former Tampa Pitcher considering the Yankees and the AL East. Would you really want to go back and have to throw so often against that division again?? Granted - The new schedule format has softened that daunting proposition somewhat, but I've got to believe that he and his agent have to be saying: "Been there - Done that."

It's been 4 years since Snell was pitching in the AL East. In 2020, this was the Twins team:

SP1 Berrios, SP2 Maeda, SP3 Dobnak, SP4 Hill, SP5 Pineda
Cl - Rogers, RP2 - Clippard, RP3 - Duffey, RP4 - May, RP5 - Alcala, RP6 - Romo, RP7 - Thielbar
C - Garver, Jeffers
1B - Sano, 2B - Arraez, 3B - Donaldson, SS - Polanco
LF - Rosario, CF - Buxton, RF - Kepler
DH - Cruz
Util - Cave, Gonzalez, Adrianza

5 of the 25 people on that team remain on the Twins 26 man/40 man. With so much turnover, I don't know as the teams would be the same, but I suppose the stadiums would be.

[dxpavelka]

Worth noting that all of the things that make Snell an attractive option for the Twins also make him so for probably 8 other teams.

 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The player option doesn't hurt anybody that badly, though.

2024 - $5MM remaining
---------------------------------------
2025 - $15MM (player option)
2026 - $17MM signing bonus, non-transferable SF has to pay
2027 - $15MM deferred from 2025.

The acquiring team only has to pay $15MM for Snell in 2025, skips 2026, then has to pay $15MM in 2027 deferred. It's an easy player option to absorb.

Understood. I don’t believe the Twins would risk it. I wish they would but I’m really skeptical. 

[thelanges5]

Even the Cubs, who are in  last place in the NL Central are going for it. Just traded for Isaac Paredes.

[old nurse]

A lot of assumptions being made here.. The blogger has the notion that the Twins can make up 4.5 games by making an addition . The Giants are 4.5 back. Maybe they are out looking for a middle infield help to bolster their chance to make up the 4.5 games. 

Snell has missed 10 starts so far this season. Without a dominant post season run I would doubt that teams are going to be looking to give him 30 million unless it is for 2 seasons. He has had too many seasons with injuries. 

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Maybe they are out looking for a middle infield help to bolster their chance to make up the 4.5 games. 

So Julien plus an low-A prospect in the 15-20 range for Snell?

[DocBauer]

I've never been an apologist for the Twins ownership, but I've never been a basher either.  But to cut the payroll as much as they did, while still...supposedly...receiving $40-45M from Diamond  Sports that they didn't anticipate  receiving, and now possibly receiving a $ bump from MLB to help teams acquire help, they simply have zero excuses not to help this team move forward toward a possible division win, and some playoff victories. 

The only reason not to make a couple quality moves is:

A} Opportunity. Sure seems like only a couple teams are open for business as sellers at this point. That's  really going to decrease availability,  possibly driving up player cost in any deal. Now, that might change over the weekend and the next couple of days, but I don't think there's as much out there as some believe there to be.

B} Overall cost. I agree the Twins have a deep system right now. And they don't exactly have a ML team overflowing with 30+ year olds ready to be  replaced. They can afford to make a couple smart deals to help this team, this season, without destroying the system. But if other teams drive up the cost for available players, at some point, I can see the FO just saying no.

I believe a LH pen arm of QUALITY is needed. I don't want a lefty just because that's how they throw. I want someone who can be counted on in the 7th inning and not make me nervous when they take they mound. 

I'd like to have a quality SP added to protect against Paddack breaking down, or anyone else getting injured, and not being compelled to rely on Varland, Festa, etc. The problem is, if you want someone "better than" one of the current rotation arms, who's actually available that fits that role? Is Snell really the only one that might be available? And if so, how far do you go "in" to go get him? Or anyone else that might be made available? 

[Jocko87]

I think we are wisely coalescing around the idea the quality is the only important factor at this deadline.  Marginal improvements just won't do it.  Unfortunately, that means we may have a quiet deadline.  I'm OK with that but I'll probably take a few days off of the site if it happens. 

Snells option isn't a factor with a player of his quality.  A team will be willing to pay what seems a high price because the upside is 40 ace innings in the playoffs.   It's the aisle the Twins absolutely should be shopping in.  I'm afraid it will be one team that blows the top off to win and convince the Giants to sell. 

I think Falvey has that move in his arsenal but his history would suggest he's not likely to make it unless it's an overwhelming win.  Money won't matter. He didn't get this roster where it is by throwing things around.

Lockdown lefty from the pen, ace starter.  That's the list for me.  As @USAFChief has been saying, any three prospects you want.  I'm willing to endure future TD articles bemoaning their absence.  

My price is any three prospects unless one of them is in the top 5, excluding Lee and Jenkins.  Erod or Zebby you only get two total pieces.  That's a lot for a rental, but it's the only kind of piece that makes sense.  It may be a quiet deadline.

[Craig Arko]

It appears Yankees, Padres, and Cubs are all fishing for Snell. Seems pretty unlikely the Twins can outbid all of them. I still think Kikuchi might happen. Not holding breath, though.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Craig Arko said:

It appears Yankees, Padres, and Cubs are all fishing for Snell. Seems pretty unlikely the Twins can outbid all of them. I still think Kikuchi might happen. Not holding breath, though.

It's not unlikely the Twins can outbid them. 

It's unlikely they will outbid them.