If You’re Ready to Believe in Willi Castro (and You Should), Everything Changes

[John Bonnes]

What if Willi Castro is not just an over-achieving utility guy? What if he’s an everyday starter? 

(Also, he already is.)

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

We know we should be paying more attention to Willi Castro. For the last year and a half, he has consistently been one of the most valuable Twins players, whether you’re measuring by new-school (WAR, WPA) or old-school (at-bats, defensive flexibility) metrics. But the fact that he’s been in a utility role and that this breakthrough performance was (mostly) unexpected means he tends to be overlooked, even when we don’t mean to.

That may be ending, at least for 2024. With Edouard Julien in Triple-A and Brooks Lee’s season getting a late start due to a herniated disc, we know where we’ll find Castro for the foreseeable future: playing second base. Maybe more importantly, we’re also now finding him and his .350 OBP in the lineup’s leadoff spot. 

So, for the next few weeks, the Twins will have a defensively proficient second baseman and leadoff hitter who has posted 113 OPS+ over the last two years. He also leads the Twins in games played over that span. He is also 27 years old. 

That doesn’t sound like a utility player. It sounds like a regular, and maybe even one a team builds around. If you—and the Twins—are ready to see Castro as an everyday starter, several twists regarding the Twins’ future lineup emerge.

Castro Has Leapfrogged Four Prospects
If Castro secures the leadoff spot, regardless of the position he plays, he’ll need to stay in the lineup. That means the Twins have four highly-regarded (or formerly highly-regarded) prospects in St. Paul who are all competing for one spot this year. Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Julien, and Lee are all competing for a semi-open spot in either left field or at second base. Castro can take whichever spot is left over, but he won’t be replaced or lose at-bats when he does so. His switch-hitting bat at the top of the lineup is the priority.

Will the Twins Leave Good Enough Alone?
Baseball teams and players don’t like to mess with something that is working. So, if Willi Castro continues to thrive while playing a solid second base, especially while hitting leadoff, how tempted will the Twins be to leave him there?

That could be especially true if Wallner finds his way back to a corner outfield spot and recreates last year’s success. Or, if Austin Martin shows the capability to hold down a corner outfield spot on a regular basis. Once the left field corner spot is secured, where will the Twins’ leadoff hitter play, if not at second base?

Where Does This Leave Julien and Lee?
The Twins clearly believe in Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee, and for good reason. But in the near term, do they rank higher than Castro? Does that near-term thinking end after the 2024 season, or does it extend to the 2025 season? Or beyond?

While we’re on a roll with question marks, let’s see how many more we can stuff into this section. Given the glut of prospects fighting for a single spot on the roster, at what point do the Twins start to view some of that depth as redundant? Or, if "redundant" is too strong a word, when does it at least allow them to loosen their grip a bit during trade deadline talks? Do the Twins believe enough in Castro to consider trading away some of their top infield prospects? 

(Do you?)

Those questions also become a little more complicated when looking forward to the 2025 season. Additional lineup spots will be open next year, when Max Kepler and Carlos Santana are likely no longer on the team. Plus, there could be another open spot in 2026, because Castro will become a free agent after the 2025 season. Which raises perhaps the biggest question… 

Does a Contract Extension Make Sense for Either Side?
This year, the Twins will have their final chance to offer Castro arbitration, where we can estimate he’ll make roughly $5-7 million. That’s a fair amount of money for a utility infielder, but a bargain for a second baseman hitting atop the batting order. The Twins should be very interested in signing that player to an extension that pays him through the balance of his prime years.

Especially because those prime years are right now and in the near future, not in the past. Castro is only 27, which is great news for the Twins but even better news for Castro, as he’ll hit the free market as a 28-year-old, providing a golden opportunity to sign a multi-year deal.

It’s hard enough to get a contract extension done with a player a year before free agency. Given his age and breakthrough success, Castro would likely be advised to drive a hard bargain, rather than miss his shot at hitting the open market. On the other hand, he may have the same perception problem with the rest of the league with which we’re wrestling: he’s “only” a utility player. Given his journey so far, four years of guaranteed money might be appealing. 

Whether or not this is a possibility is a major factor in most of the questions above. If Castro is determined to be a free agent at the end of 2025, his future value is limited, compared to the various prospects in question. In addition, keeping Castro in his utility role and slotting the prospects for a full-time position makes a lot more sense. One key input into the decision to prioritize Castro over some of the above (or not) is the extent to which they view him as keepable beyond 2025, and projectable over the first few years of that span.

How Far Should the Twins Go?
It’s one thing to say “we all should be paying more attention to Willi Castro.” It’s another to unpack what that means, and to adjust one’s thinking about where he fits into the Twins’ future lineup. Committing to that future with a contract extension or trading away a prized prospect is a big step farther down the path.

But Castro has earned that consideration. Perhaps our expectations and the traditional “utility infielder” label are blinding us to his value. The Twins (and Twins fans, and Twins Daily) pride themselves on recognizing market inefficiencies in MLB and taking advantage of them. It's not a coincidence that Castro is about to set a new benchmark for positional flexibility within a season, previously approached only by two other Twins super-utility guys. It looks like the Twins have a doozy of a blind spot within their own organization, and need to explore pivoting accordingly.

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How far would you go?

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[arby58]

A lot of good points and food for thought! Having a 'super utility' player who can play pretty much every day in multiple positions is, to me, as or more valuable than just nailing him to 2B. I do think he needs to be at the top of the lineup most days and one of Julien or Lee and one of Larnach or Wallner needs to go as trade material for pitching. Which will probably depend on what they get in return. 

[bean5302]

Willi Castro's will probably wind up with a wRC+ 110 type of season again this year. I expect he's probably a plus defender as a full time 2B. Basically, he's what Jorge Polanco was in terms of value. Probably a 3.5 WAR player at the end of this year is my guess. I'd suspect Castro will be closer to the $7MM range than $5MM if he plays at or above that.

This Twins' front office has shown a strong affinity for the super utility player. Marwin Gonzalez was kind of the first go-around, Kyle Farmer was expected to fill that role, and Castro really outperformed expectations owning it as the latest so I'm sure the front office is pretty enamored with him.

Then again, the only real reason to keep a guy nearing free agency is if you don't have somebody coming up through the system to replace him or they're a franchise cornerstone. The Twins have plenty of highly projectable depth who may well be able to fill Castro's boots for 1/10th the cost. 

With the Twins competing for a playoff spot, I could see them trading Margot or Farmer should they rebound or DFA'ing them at the deadline if they regress back to early season form. It'd be surprising for the Twins to trade Castro this year, but keeping Castro beyond the end of this season feels wasteful to me right now. Have to see how the year plays out more.

 

[Jocko87]

I believe in Willi but nothing really changes. They won't be spending $10m when one of Lee, Julien or Martin is a legit player at 700k. The kids have to play their way onto the field and that minimum level is getting higher every year.  Willi is a large part of that but any thoughts of building around him just don't make a lot of sense.  He might be a really nice trade piece next year.

He's basically been what I thought Farmer would be. He could easily be worth Farmer's salary next year, high level insurance for the kids.  

[Hrbeks Divot]

Great article, John. You should think about writing for this site more often. 😁

I think it depends on how much faith they have in Julien or Lee to hit at the top of the order for the foreseeable future and where their trade value lies right now. They hit a small lottery ticket with Castro and should either attempt to sign him to a reasonable deal - $24 mil at 4 yrs - or trade him while his value is at its peak and bring up the young guys to let them fly.

[Doctor Gast]

Castro can play middle field well which means he can anywhere in the OF & INF well. He isn't just a utility player, he's a super utility player, LAD knew the importance of having super utility player Chris Taylor for years & he proved to be very valuable. One shouldn't take a super utility player for granted but many do. A super utility player adds depth everywhere & IMO Castro will grow into even more of an impact player.

I'd like to keep Castro around for a while. Lee is set at 2B, LF is still up in the air, RF will be up in the air after Kepler leaves,  Martin is our other super utility player & Julien, Miranda & Kiriloff will fight it out at 1B. Hope is Wallner will find his way & then there is Larnach & when will Emma be ready? It wouldn't be a bad idea to extend switch-hitting Castro as insurance & keep our options open, He wouldn't be expensive & his trade value would be appealing if he gets pushed out.

[Beast]

Many seem to be penciling in Julien as a long-term solution.  I’m not so sure.

He has a long way to go to get back here.  This was thought of as a quick get-right trip to AAA, but he’s been just as bad down there.  I’m not writing him off by any means, but he needs to prove it again over a fairly large sample.

I’d like to see Lee get the next crack at 2B.  He’s a more complete hitter than Julien (he’s not all or nothing).  He likely won’t be as susceptible to these prolonged, detrimental slumps that drag the entire offense down.  He’s at least as good as Julien defensively, with the added flexibility to play SS/3B.

Castro seems to thrive in his super utility role.  His value is multiplied by being able to play anywhere, allowing for all sorts of lineup combinations/defensive alignments.  I don’t see any reason right now to lock him into one of the most inconsequential defensive positions on the field.  Lee is nearly ready, Miranda needs as many ABs as possible, and we’re giving ABs to guys like Margot in the OF.  Castro can find every day ABs in the OF and occasional fill-in duty in the infield.  That’s how you maximize the current roster, in my opinion.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I don't think that I necessarily extend him, but I'm mighty glad to have him around.  I think his job next year depends on Austin Martin.  If Martin can be a player of similar value for $700K, then Castro is part of a trade package of some sort.  If not, then he sticks around and we wait for the next young player to replace him.  Keeping him beyond next year doesn't seem necessary at this point, but prospects are called prospects for a reason and all those young guys who "could replace him" or who are "locked in" at a position might wash out before they establish themselves. 

In the meantime, Castro is really fun to watch. 

BTW, I like this Bonnes fellow's writing.  It's nice to find a new guy around here like that!  Keep up the good work!

[Fatbat]

Only a few people were bigger doubters than I was about Castro and they were all in the Tigers org.  I am amazed by him every game.  He just might help in a walkoff tonight 🤷‍♂️

[DJL44]

Utility players and second basemen don't make the big bucks. Offer him a 3 year $18M deal and see if he accepts. He's probably worth $30-40M over the next 3 seasons.

[rv78]

I see it as a simple solution. He replaces Kyle Farmer if/when Lee, Julien, Wallner, etc, etc, etc prove they belong on the big league roster. Afterall, Farmer is gone after this season and Castro is still here in 2025. He reminds me a lot of Eduardo Escobar. He too was a utility guy who forced his way into regular playing time with the Twins and went on to have a few good seasons with the DBacks also. I'd be looking to keep him. A reasonable 3 or 4 year contract extension in the neighborhood of Farmers current $6M contract won't hinder the FO if they do decide to trade him before the contract ends.

[Todd Nelson]

Well in the near term I think the roster question. that needs to be answered is ...Who is the Correa's backup on the depth chart? If its not Farmer then DFA him to create space for Julien or Lee. There is no reason that Castro can't lead off 5 or 6 times a week playing anywhere on the field giving everyone else a break yet still bringing up the top notch in field talent to develop at the MLB level. Longer term who know? The money they waste on dated talent every year and their reluctance to admit and change course suggests the front office won't cut Farmer or Margaux . Willi Castro would be well worth a 4 year extension now rather than signing another and then another "experienced" player to backup the youth should they falter.

 

[Karbo]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Willi Castro's will probably wind up with a wRC+ 110 type of season again this year. I expect he's probably a plus defender as a full time 2B. Basically, he's what Jorge Polanco was in terms of value. Probably a 3.5 WAR player at the end of this year is my guess. I'd suspect Castro will be closer to the $7MM range than $5MM if he plays at or above that.

This Twins' front office has shown a strong affinity for the super utility player. Marwin Gonzalez was kind of the first go-around, Kyle Farmer was expected to fill that role, and Castro really outperformed expectations owning it as the latest so I'm sure the front office is pretty enamored with him.

Then again, the only real reason to keep a guy nearing free agency is if you don't have somebody coming up through the system to replace him or they're a franchise cornerstone. The Twins have plenty of highly projectable depth who may well be able to fill Castro's boots for 1/10th the cost. 

With the Twins competing for a playoff spot, I could see them trading Margot or Farmer should they rebound or DFA'ing them at the deadline if they regress back to early season form. It'd be surprising for the Twins to trade Castro this year, but keeping Castro beyond the end of this season feels wasteful to me right now. Have to see how the year plays out more.

 

IMO it's questionable if they could find a taker for Farmer, or Margot.

[Karbo]

Looking at next season they will be minus Margot, Farmer, probably Santana and Kepler. That leaves room for Lee, and Wallner, keeps Martin as 4th outfielder, allows time for Miranda and possibly AK, if he can ever stay healthy. that leaves Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner for OF. Miranda/AK, Lee, Correa, Lewis in the IF. So IMO it is important to keep Castro. After all, look at these players and think, how many IL trips there are, and who can fill those spots better than Castro?

[Brandon]

I wonder how the shrinking revenue from TV will affect contracts moving forward.  Not just for the Twins but industry wide.  To me this makes it harder to peg a good contract for him.  I have him at 3-4 years at 12-15 million per season contract value.  If we can extend him in that 10 million per season range he is worth considering for an extension, for his age 28-31 seasons. I am not sure how much room we have in the budget going forward.  I wonder if the Twins will scale payroll back more next year.  Attendance is terrible and the TV contract isn’t paying from what I can see.  
from Castro’s perspective, I bet he is really happy here and would be willing to sign an extension.  He was let go by Detroit and has that experience in his mind.  Why mess with a good thing if he gets paid?  

[Linus]

Interesting topic. I definitely keep him at whatever the arb number is next year. Not so sure about an extension. He’s truly a competent fielder at multiple positions and he’s already better at second than Julien. After writing this I think I would at least entertain an extension at the right price. Think of all the money spent for poor backups. 

[David Maro]

He has value because he is the only player to play every game this year.When availability is important he there and ready to play.

[Riverbrian]

Willi Castro's can be found when given opportunity.

Most don't get opportunity. 

I'd rather give a 2nd opportunity to a Willi Castro or a 1st opportunity DaShawn Keirsey than watch a Joey Gallo blow his 40th opportunity. 

Also... for all major league baseball players trying to keep a major league job or earn one. Multiple positions are multiple doors to walk through in search of that opportunity. 

 

[baul0010]

16 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I believe in Willi but nothing really changes. They won't be spending $10m when one of Lee, Julien or Martin is a legit player at 700k. The kids have to play their way onto the field and that minimum level is getting higher every year.  Willi is a large part of that but any thoughts of building around him just don't make a lot of sense.  He might be a really nice trade piece next year.

He's basically been what I thought Farmer would be. He could easily be worth Farmer's salary next year, high level insurance for the kids.  

Sadly, (for the Twins) his fate will be playing out his arbitration and hitting free agency.  It will have to go down as a success for finding a cheap player and maximizing his skills.  Because of our newfound salary cap, we won't be able to sign him with a cheaper Julien needing 2nd.  

I'm not sure why but I always enjoyed watching Castro with the Tigers.  He always seemed to get a clutch hit against us.  I was excited to see when we had signed him and a little baffled at why the Tigers gave up on him.  It is awesome to see him flourish and I hope he gets a large contract somewhere.  He seems like a pretty good dude for deserves it!

[JD-TWINS]

Signing him for $8M/yr for 4 years starting in ‘26 is a good move!

RF - LF - 2B - SS are all places he “could” spend time at next year & forward.

I know this will bring some wrath but IMO, Julien & Martin & Castro have 2B covered going forward in ‘25 and beyond.

Lee at 3B solidifies the left side through ‘28 with CC.

Larnach - Wallner - Martin - Castro - Kirilloff are the Corner guys from ‘25 forward.

ROYCE at 1B m. This gives him a long-term home……injury risks go way down ……,Twins fill a Power Hole at that position ……,,etc. Royce could also move to LF …….he would fill a hole there too as an everyday guy on the grass.

Lee - CC - Julien - Lewis (Julien at 1B doesn’t work for me) with Castro playing behind the Glove guys as needed and also playing regularly in the OF.

[Jocko87]

45 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

Sadly, (for the Twins) his fate will be playing out his arbitration and hitting free agency.  It will have to go down as a success for finding a cheap player and maximizing his skills.  Because of our newfound salary cap, we won't be able to sign him with a cheaper Julien needing 2nd.  

I'm not sure why but I always enjoyed watching Castro with the Tigers.  He always seemed to get a clutch hit against us.  I was excited to see when we had signed him and a little baffled at why the Tigers gave up on him.  It is awesome to see him flourish and I hope he gets a large contract somewhere.  He seems like a pretty good dude for deserves it!

It's not just the Twins, it's the CBA and the basic economics of the game. The market for 30 year old solid vets is horrible as it's a stars and paid like scrubs league. The Twins have top 100 prospects pushing him out on top of that. No stopping it.

Other than the financial realities Brian is correct as well. Unknown ceiling over known floor in the majority of the cases. When a Gallo doesn't work out you've also missed out on the chance to progress another young piece.

There are a ton of good older players out there but they are used as filler. The Royals basically filled out their roster with them and its working so far. Next year might be the opposite.

59 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Willi Castro's can be found when given opportunity.

Most don't get opportunity. 

I'd rather give a 2nd opportunity to a Willi Castro or a 1st opportunity DaShawn Keirsey than watch a Joey Gallo blow his 40th opportunity. 

Also... for all major league baseball players trying to keep a major league job or earn one. Multiple positions are multiple doors to walk through in search of that opportunity. 

 

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

IMO it's questionable if they could find a taker for Farmer, or Margot.

If they're still playing so poorly their small contracts can't be moved, it's DFA time.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Utility players and second basemen don't make the big bucks. Offer him a 3 year $18M deal and see if he accepts. He's probably worth $30-40M over the next 3 seasons.

6 $50MM+ 2B contracts for active players in MLB right now. Agreed utility players don't usually get paid. I suppose that's one upside for "positional flexibilty" for the Twins. They get to underpay their players.

[arby58]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Willi Castro's will probably wind up with a wRC+ 110 type of season again this year. I expect he's probably a plus defender as a full time 2B. Basically, he's what Jorge Polanco was in terms of value. Probably a 3.5 WAR player at the end of this year is my guess. I'd suspect Castro will be closer to the $7MM range than $5MM if he plays at or above that.

He's 2.2 WAR through 74 games, so 3.5 seems a little low. Speaking of Polanco, he's currently 0.0 WAR and an OPS of .595 for the Mariners. Even if all the trade was for the Twins was a salary dump, it looks like a smart move in sending him west. I suspect they look to re-sign Castro. The other possible utility players (Lee, Martin) don't have his range of possible positions or the speed he brings to the top of the line-up. When he's on, he's electric.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

6 $50MM+ 2B contracts for active players in MLB right now. Agreed utility players don't usually get paid. I suppose that's one upside for "positional flexibilty" for the Twins. They get to underpay their players.

Who are they underpaying?  Specifically that is unique to the league.

There must be some kind of hidden points system on TD for getting in shots at the front office.  I never get invited to the fun parties.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Signing him for $8M/yr for 4 years starting in ‘26 is a good move!

RF - LF - 2B - SS are all places he “could” spend time at next year & forward.

I know this will bring some wrath but IMO, Julien & Martin & Castro have 2B covered going forward in ‘25 and beyond.

Lee at 3B solidifies the left side through ‘28 with CC.

Larnach - Wallner - Martin - Castro - Kirilloff are the Corner guys from ‘25 forward.

ROYCE at 1B m. This gives him a long-term home……injury risks go way down ……,Twins fill a Power Hole at that position ……,,etc. Royce could also move to LF …….he would fill a hole there too as an everyday guy on the grass.

Lee - CC - Julien - Lewis (Julien at 1B doesn’t work for me) with Castro playing behind the Glove guys as needed and also playing regularly in the OF.

[DocBauer]

I'm not going to get in the $ numbers of a deal, but I can see an extension for Castro being a smart idea. He has a solid bat, switch hits, has some pop and some speed. He plays at least solid defense at 5 spots, though he has made appearances in RF and 1B, he's just usually not been needed there. I don't think he's a STAR player, but he's a very good one. And the fact that he's a "super utility" player doesn't mean he isn't an every day player.

13 position players on a roster, one of them always a 2nd catcher. That's 12 guys to fill 8 spots in the field and 1 at DH. Only 3 players remain to PH, PR, platoon, etc. Even in a theoretical world where you could set your roster and never have anyone hurt, guys will still need days off.

Wallner, Buxton, Rodriguez, Martin, Larnach, Lewis, Correa, Lee, Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Vazquez or ?, looks really good, potentially, for 2025 and beyond. But don't tell me there's not room for Castro in the lineup and on the roster when we know guys DO get injured. 

I'd like him to stick around for a few more years.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If they're still playing so poorly their small contracts can't be moved, it's DFA time.

Margot is hitting .281 v. LH pitching …..that skill & OF depth were the reasons he was acquired. It’s not Margot’s fault he has to routinely start v. RH pitching because Kepler was hurt - Wallner was absolutely terrible - Larnach had a bad toe - Kirilloff went in the tank after 3 weeks.

.281 BA - .356 OBP - .747 OPS v. Lefties

.230 BA - .308 OBP - .617 OPS overall

He’s been just fine for most of the past 7 weeks!

 Farmer is hitting .196 and was at .085 on May 1st. His defense is at least average if not better. If he can get to .225-.230 by September he’s the player they wanted. Career BA of .255 so after his start, a .225 finish would be him hitting to his career average for 4 1/2 months.

[bean5302]

36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Margot is hitting .281 v. LH pitching …..that skill & OF depth were the reasons he was acquired. It’s not Margot’s fault he has to routinely start v. RH pitching because Kepler was hurt - Wallner was absolutely terrible - Larnach had a bad toe - Kirilloff went in the tank after 3 weeks.

.281 BA - .356 OBP - .747 OPS v. Lefties

.230 BA - .308 OBP - .617 OPS overall

He’s been just fine for most of the past 7 weeks!

 Farmer is hitting .196 and was at .085 on May 1st. His defense is at least average if not better. If he can get to .225-.230 by September he’s the player they wanted. Career BA of .255 so after his start, a .225 finish would be him hitting to his career average for 4 1/2 months.

I'm well aware they've all been hitting well lately. Their season stats are still poor, and if they remain at the same level they're currently at, both Farmer and Margot will be DFA candidates because the hot streak will have come to an end.

[rv78]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Margot is hitting .281 v. LH pitching …..that skill & OF depth were the reasons he was acquired. It’s not Margot’s fault he has to routinely start v. RH pitching because Kepler was hurt - Wallner was absolutely terrible - Larnach had a bad toe - Kirilloff went in the tank after 3 weeks.

.281 BA - .356 OBP - .747 OPS v. Lefties

.230 BA - .308 OBP - .617 OPS overall

He’s been just fine for most of the past 7 weeks!

 Farmer is hitting .196 and was at .085 on May 1st. His defense is at least average if not better. If he can get to .225-.230 by September he’s the player they wanted. Career BA of .255 so after his start, a .225 finish would be him hitting to his career average for 4 1/2 months.

If given enough time and opportunities even the young players may battle their way out of a slump, which is what Margot and Farmer have been given. It doesn't change the fact their poor performance for the first part of the season probably cost the Twins some games in the Win column. Tell me how you'll feel about this if the Twins miss the playoffs by a game or two. Just because they are now hitting better doesn't make them the better players to be using or keeping for that matter. That's like saying Kepler was worth having on the team for 9 years since he had 1 & 1/2 years of good hitting. Both Farmer and Margot are bench/fill-in players. Both are very replaceable by a AAA player ready to make an impact if given the chance and can stay healthy. You say, if Margot can get to .225-.230 and Farmer to .225 are the best players this organization can give those at bats to, then they are in a more sorry state than most of us realize.