Willi Castro

[stringer bell]

Willi Castro is currently on a roll. He has essentially doubled his batted average, halved his strikeout rate and continued to play good defense all over the field. With the injury to Byron Buxton, there has been discussion whether Willi should become the primary center fielder in Buck's absence. 

What I would like to discuss here is what the best role for him is going forward and what has changed since he was signed to a minor league contract just before Christmas in 2022. 

First and foremost, he has earned the trust of the manager. Rocco Baldelli trusts Castro to handle several positions defensively, make good and aggressive base running decisions and handle himself against left and right handed pitchers. This has won Castro lots of playing time. He currently has played in every game, starting 26 of 30 and is among the top three Twins in plate appearances. 

Secondly, he has picked up his hitting against left handed pitching. Willi is mashing to the tune of 1.250 OPS versus southpaws. Last season, he lagged against lefties with a .636 OPS. On the other hand, Willi's OPS against right handers has suffered (only .646 to date). I would expect regression to the mean in both, especially given his career platoon splits are basically neutral. 

Finally, and maybe because my expectations have changed, there seems to be a downturn in both defense and base running. Castro has been guilty of a couple of notable base running mistakes, he's been nabbed stealing three times already and has more bobbles and bad routes in the outfield than I recall from 2023. He's still a good defender in left field (the best the Twins have) and is a good fielder at third base. He has already played much more shortstop in 2024 than he did in 2023 and he's no Carlos Correa at short (not many are).

In summary (and IMHO), Willi Castro has followed up a breakthrough season with another solid start and has attained the status of a regular at the age of 27. While it is early in the season, he has thus far shown that 2023 wasn't a fluke and that he can do a lot of things to help the Twins win ball games. He appears to thrive playing wherever he is needed and looks to be an asset that the Twins would be smart to keep, maybe for more than his years of team control.

[bean5302]

It's almost never a good investment to keep players after they're slated to hit free agency. The exceptions are super star players and the faces of the franchise for marketing value.

He appears to be about a league average bat with adequate defense, and though the Twins are having him focus on maximizing his strike outs to better fit Falvey's preferred method of reducing wear and tear on players bodies. By striking out, players can just walk back to the dugout with a scowl like a real bad*** instead of risking their health by having to run after putting a ball in play.

Next year will be Castro's final year of arbitration, and if he repeats last year's performance, he's going to get expensive for a utility guy, probably clocking in somewhere around Farmer's $6MM mark. There really isn't a spot on the Twins' roster for Castro as a starter right now. It looks like Julien has claimed 2B with newly passable defense, Correa is cemented at SS and there are less expensive (and probably better) options for 3B like Lewis and Miranda. In the outfield, Castro won't be a big asset in the corners and Buxton is cemented into starting CF. The Twins would probably be better off parting with Castro before 2025, but if the organization cleans up the depth chart and there is a real need for Castro, it might not be bad to bring him back.

Beyond 2025, I don't see Castro being a good fit for the Twins at all.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's almost never a good investment to keep players after they're slated to hit free agency. The exceptions are super star players and the faces of the franchise for marketing value.

He appears to be about a league average bat with adequate defense, and though the Twins are having him focus on maximizing his strike outs to better fit Falvey's preferred method of reducing wear and tear on players bodies. By striking out, players can just walk back to the dugout with a scowl like a real bad*** instead of risking their health by having to run after putting a ball in play.

Next year will be Castro's final year of arbitration, and if he repeats last year's performance, he's going to get expensive for a utility guy, probably clocking in somewhere around Farmer's $6MM mark. There really isn't a spot on the Twins' roster for Castro as a starter right now. It looks like Julien has claimed 2B with newly passable defense, Correa is cemented at SS and there are less expensive (and probably better) options for 3B like Lewis and Miranda. In the outfield, Castro won't be a big asset in the corners and Buxton is cemented into starting CF. The Twins would probably be better off parting with Castro before 2025, but if the organization cleans up the depth chart and there is a real need for Castro, it might not be bad to bring him back.

Beyond 2025, I don't see Castro being a good fit for the Twins at all.

If Rocco Baldelli ran out the same nine game after game, I might agree with you. However, he's pretty likely to use his whole bench several days in a row. Add on the impact of injuries and having a truly versatile player to fill the slack at as many as seven positions is worth Kyle Farmer dollars. 

I've mentioned this before. I think there's a chance that Willi Castro is better than a typical utility player, but more of a Tony Phillips/Ben Zobrist/Whit Merrifield type that becomes a tenth regular, filling in wherever there is need without much loss at the plate or in the field. I don't think there's enough evidence yet one way or the other, but with this year and next coming under team control, I think there will be evidence of how good and how important Willi Castro is to the team. 

Castro just turned 27 a week ago, so he would be in his age 29 year for free agency--on the young side. As long as he's a plus runner, I think he can be very valuable.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's almost never a good investment to keep players after they're slated to hit free agency. The exceptions are super star players and the faces of the franchise for marketing value.

He appears to be about a league average bat with adequate defense, and though the Twins are having him focus on maximizing his strike outs to better fit Falvey's preferred method of reducing wear and tear on players bodies. By striking out, players can just walk back to the dugout with a scowl like a real bad*** instead of risking their health by having to run after putting a ball in play.

Next year will be Castro's final year of arbitration, and if he repeats last year's performance, he's going to get expensive for a utility guy, probably clocking in somewhere around Farmer's $6MM mark. There really isn't a spot on the Twins' roster for Castro as a starter right now. It looks like Julien has claimed 2B with newly passable defense, Correa is cemented at SS and there are less expensive (and probably better) options for 3B like Lewis and Miranda. In the outfield, Castro won't be a big asset in the corners and Buxton is cemented into starting CF. The Twins would probably be better off parting with Castro before 2025, but if the organization cleans up the depth chart and there is a real need for Castro, it might not be bad to bring him back.

Beyond 2025, I don't see Castro being a good fit for the Twins at all.

Castro's value is filling in for injured players across several positions or guys getting a day off and doing it quite well.  He had 2.5 bWAR last year and already has 1.1 this year.  He is on a 6 WAR pace.  Let's say he only gets half way there.  (3 WAR).  He covers the role of 2 bench players and that flexibility producing 2.5 WAR or more is not too expensive.  Quite the opposite.  He is a valuable piece.  IDK that I would extend him but I sure keep him here next year.

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If Rocco Baldelli ran out the same nine game after game, I might agree with you. However, he's pretty likely to use his whole bench several days in a row. Add on the impact of injuries and having a truly versatile player to fill the slack at as many as seven positions is worth Kyle Farmer dollars. 

I've mentioned this before. I think there's a chance that Willi Castro is better than a typical utility player, but more of a Tony Phillips/Ben Zobrist/Whit Merrifield type that becomes a tenth regular, filling in wherever there is need without much loss at the plate or in the field. I don't think there's enough evidence yet one way or the other, but with this year and next coming under team control, I think there will be evidence of how good and how important Willi Castro is to the team. 

Castro just turned 27 a week ago, so he would be in his age 29 year for free agency--on the young side. As long as he's a plus runner, I think he can be very valuable.

It's hard to invest much in this discussion when you're comparing Willi Castro to borderline Hall of Famers like Phillips and Zobrist. Whit Merrifield, though? Sure, I think Castro could have a 99% ceiling of a Whit Merrifield-ish career at 20 WAR with a peak of 3.0-3.5 annual WAR or so, but even his 90% ceiling is Eduardo Escobar. So what if Castro does hit his 90-95% potential ceiling?

Castro needs to be:
A) Good enough to be an every day player. (check, if he hits his near ceiling)
B) Substantially better than any other cheap option the Twins have to be that every day player. (here's the problem)

The Twins have: Buxton, Kirilloff, Martin, Larnach, Wallner, DeKeirsey, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez as current or pipeline outfield options who could be on the Twins after next year.
The Twins have: Julien, Martin, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Prato, Lee, Keashall, and Schobel as current or pipeline infielder options who could be on the Twins after next year.

The same arguments against spending on high floor free agent/veteran guys like Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer, and Manuel Margot apply to Willi Castro once he reaches free agency. Castro is not a super star player, and there is absolutely nothing in his history to suspect he ever could be.

It's foolish to spend $5-10MM a year on a utility player when you're on a budget because they're usually available for league minimum out of your farm system. Is Willi Castro at 2.5-3.0 WAR worth $7-10MM more than Walker Jenkins at $780k or Brooks Lee at $780k?

[jorgenswest]

Castro is so valuable to the Twins and will be next year also. It is possible that he will lead the Twins in plate appearances this year without a defined starting position. He is second so far this year just one behind Julien. Last year he was 4th in plate appearances. He is an everyday player for this team without an everyday position.

He can run, play key defensive positions well and has shown some pop in his bat. He is fun to watch.

[ashbury]

His best role is what he is now: super sub.  He can credibly play the two critical up-the-middle positions, and his batting resume with the Twins has been highly acceptable.  I wouldn't install him as a starter over any of the incumbents, but he can be pressed into "starters minutes" at any position except pitcher and catcher if the need arises..  That's what a super sub does and I can't say that about Austin Martin, who simply isn't a shortstop.  Gotta give the FO credit for picking him up.  Some here are worried about his future salaries, but I don't see him reaching the $10M level, and if the Twins can keep him around for Kyle Farmer money, he's a good replacement in the role they envisioned for Farmer himself.

[Linus]

Castro is one of the few players that can legitimately play several positions acceptably well (although he has struggled a little in CF this year). He can run, switch hitter there is a lot to like in the true utility role. If we can pay Farmer 6.25 this year we can pay Willi 5.5 next year. 

[Major League Ready]

Since joining the team, Casto has produced 3.8 WAR, 2nd only to Edouard Julien.  He is not going anywhere unless he is very mediocre the rest of the season.  

 

1	Edouard Julien	MIN	140	525	23	76	51	5	15.4%	31.4%	.211	.349	.254	.372	.465	.366		137	-1.1	21.8	-0.1	4.0
2	Willi Castro	MIN	155	525	11	75	46	36	8.0%	25.3%	.161	.343	.262	.341	.423	.334		115	5.2	14.3	6.0	3.8
3	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	124	446	19	62	64	4	9.2%	25.3%	.224	.349	.282	.373	.505	.379		146	-2.1	21.9	-0.7	3.7
4	Max Kepler	MIN	145	549	25	77	76	2	9.3%	20.9%	.211	.288	.260	.332	.470	.344		121	-2.6	11.5	1.4	3.2
5	Royce Lewis	MIN	59	241	16	37	53	6	8.3%	22.8%	.251	.358	.315	.378	.566	.402		161	-0.5	17.0	0.2	2.5
6	Carlos Correa	MIN	150	642	19	68	70	0	10.7%	22.6%	.163	.279	.233	.319	.396	.312		99	-3.1	-3.8	4.7	2.3
7	Michael A. Taylor	MIN	129	388	21	48	51	13	6.7%	33.5%	.223	.278	.220	.278	.442	.308		96	3.0	0.9	6.1	2.0
8	Matt Wallner	MIN	89	287	15	43	45	2	10.8%	33.8%	.248	.315	.231	.359	.479	.363		134	0.3	12.2	-6.4	1.6
9	Kyle Farmer	MIN	146	438	11	56	51	4	7.1%	22.8%	.139	.290	.238	.308	.377	.301		92	-0.7	-4.8	4.6	1.4
10	Jorge Polanco	MIN	80	343	14	38	48	4	10.5%	25.7%	.199	.310	.255	.335	.454	.340		118	-0.1	7.3	-4.7	1.4
11	Byron Buxton	MIN	113	447	18	61	53	10	8.5%	31.5%	.210	.281	.217	.295	.427	.310		98	4.1	3.2	-5.8	1.3
12	Donovan Solano	MIN	134	450	5	43	38	0	8.9%	22.2%	.109	.366	.282	.369	.391	.338		116	-2.9	6.0	-9.0	1.2
13	Christian Vázquez	MIN	121	421	7	39	37	3	6.4%	23.8%	.088	.279	.222	.273	.309	.258		62	-3.8	-22.8	19.9	1.1
14	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	116	419	13	49	51	1	8.6%	24.3%	.181	.327	.265	.339	.446	.340		119	-1.8	7.6	-13.0	0.9
15	Joey Gallo	MIN	111	332	21	39	40	1	14.5%	42.8%	.262	.244	.177	.301	.440	.320		104	0.3	1.8	-4.8	0.8
16	Trevor Larnach	MIN	70	256	10	35	48	1	12.5%	31.6%	.204	.323	.240	.332	.443	.335		115	-0.1	4.2	-6.1	0.7
17	Jordan Luplow	MIN	32	73	2	10	4	2	12.3%	26.0%	.143	.262	.206	.315	.349	.298		89	1.0	0.0	-0.6	0.2
18	Andrew Stevenson	MIN	25	40	0	4	1	4	5.0%	20.0%	.027	.241	.189	.250	.216	.216		32	0.3	-2.9	1.6	0.0
19	Kyle Garlick	MIN	14	30	2	2	4	0	6.7%	36.7%	.250	.200	.179	.233	.429	.280		77	-0.1	-1.0	-0.5	0.0
20	Austin Martin	MIN	23	69	1	17	6	2	8.7%	18.8%	.143	.265	.222	.290	.365	.294		91	0.2	-0.5	-2.3	-0.1
21	Carlos Santana	MIN	28	115	4	9	13	0	7.8%	17.4%	.146	.190	.184	.270	.330	.270		75	-0.1	-3.4	-1.1	-0.1
22	Manuel Margot	MIN	26	63	1	7	3	1	11.1%	23.8%	.073	.225	.182	.270	.255	.245		58	0.4	-2.6	-1.8	-0.3
23	Jose Miranda	MIN	59	212	5	17	21	1	5.2%	16.0%	.121	.263	.236	.283	.357	.283		80	0.1	-5.2	-4.9	-0.3
24	Nick Gordon	MIN	34	93	2	13	7	0	1.1%	11.8%	.143	.179	.176	.185	.319	.213		30	0.5	-7.3	-0.5	-0.5

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 5/2/2024 at 3:14 PM, bean5302 said:

It's hard to invest much in this discussion when you're comparing Willi Castro to borderline Hall of Famers like Phillips and Zobrist. Whit Merrifield, though? Sure, I think Castro could have a 99% ceiling of a Whit Merrifield-ish career at 20 WAR with a peak of 3.0-3.5 annual WAR or so, but even his 90% ceiling is Eduardo Escobar. So what if Castro does hit his 90-95% potential ceiling?

Castro needs to be:
A) Good enough to be an every day player. (check, if he hits his near ceiling)
B) Substantially better than any other cheap option the Twins have to be that every day player. (here's the problem)

The Twins have: Buxton, Kirilloff, Martin, Larnach, Wallner, DeKeirsey, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez as current or pipeline outfield options who could be on the Twins after next year.
The Twins have: Julien, Martin, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Prato, Lee, Keashall, and Schobel as current or pipeline infielder options who could be on the Twins after next year.

The same arguments against spending on high floor free agent/veteran guys like Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer, and Manuel Margot apply to Willi Castro once he reaches free agency. Castro is not a super star player, and there is absolutely nothing in his history to suspect he ever could be.

It's foolish to spend $5-10MM a year on a utility player when you're on a budget because they're usually available for league minimum out of your farm system. Is Willi Castro at 2.5-3.0 WAR worth $7-10MM more than Walker Jenkins at $780k or Brooks Lee at $780k?

It’s kind of a stretch to expect to consistently have a 2-3 WAR utility player coming out of your farm system every 3-6 years.

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

It’s kind of a stretch to expect to consistently have a 2-3 WAR utility player coming out of your farm system every 3-6 years.

Castro played in 125 games last year. He doesn't get to the 2-3 WAR range without playing almost every day. Which $700k starter are you benching for him and his $6MM salary? That's the point. Castro doesn't add much value over the typical every day starting position player in MLB so it's not advisable to keep him on the roster when he costs 6-7x what his replacement player will cost unless there is a very strong need.

Also, the Twins should be developing a starting caliber (2+ WAR) position player 1-2x per year. They've got 6 years of team control and 9 positions (including DH) to fill.

Teams should spend money on guys they can't expect to develop regularly (4+ WAR guys). Those big WAR free agent guys are expensive for mid-market teams like the Twins, and in order to have the budget to get them, mid-market teams can't blow all of their budget on good utility guys.

[stringer bell]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Castro played in 125 games last year. He doesn't get to the 2-3 WAR range without playing almost every day. Which $700k starter are you benching for him and his $6MM salary? That's the point. Castro doesn't add much value over the typical every day starting position player in MLB so it's not advisable to keep him on the roster when he costs 6-7x what his replacement player will cost unless there is a very strong need.

Also, the Twins should be developing a starting caliber (2+ WAR) position player 1-2x per year. They've got 6 years of team control and 9 positions (including DH) to fill.

Teams should spend money on guys they can't expect to develop regularly (4+ WAR guys). Those big WAR free agent guys are expensive for mid-market teams like the Twins, and in order to have the budget to get them, mid-market teams can't blow all of their budget on good utility guys.

The thing is that no one is being benched so that Willi is in the lineup. Injuries and platoon splits give Castro the chance to play almost every day and in the maybe 10% of games that he might not start, he can come off the bench to perhaps steal a base or be a defensive replacement.

According to BBRef, Willi Castro is at 1.0 WAR for the current season. Multiply that time five and and he is a 5 WAR player without a permanent home. Honestly, I don't expect Castro to keep hitting like he has (and he's had ample BABiP luck), but it is possible that he adds to his value more defensively and on the bases in the remaining 4/5 of the season.

My thought with Castro was that he made gigantic strides as a 26-year old. What if he again gets better in this, his age 27 season? Someone as versatile as he is, without huge platoon splits could be very valuable to the Twins or any other team. 

[tony&rodney]

Santana, Margot, Farmer, and Kepler will undoubtedly be working elsewhere next season. Having Willi Castro as a utility player for around $6 million next year will not break the budget if that is what happens. Seems like this idea/conversation is jumping way ahead of where we are right now. It is May of 2024. 

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Castro played in 125 games last year. He doesn't get to the 2-3 WAR range without playing almost every day. Which $700k starter are you benching for him and his $6MM salary? That's the point. Castro doesn't add much value over the typical every day starting position player in MLB so it's not advisable to keep him on the roster when he costs 6-7x what his replacement player will cost unless there is a very strong need.

Also, the Twins should be developing a starting caliber (2+ WAR) position player 1-2x per year. They've got 6 years of team control and 9 positions (including DH) to fill.

Teams should spend money on guys they can't expect to develop regularly (4+ WAR guys). Those big WAR free agent guys are expensive for mid-market teams like the Twins, and in order to have the budget to get them, mid-market teams can't blow all of their budget on good utility guys.

The most successful teams among the group you referenced did not have a free agent making more than $16M/year.  That was Cain for Milwaukee in 2018 in in the first year of a 5 year deal.  He produced 2.5 WAR over the remaining 4 years.  The last team in this group (KC) to win a world series did not have a free agent that produced more than 1.5 WAR.  The teams that produced the most from free agency did so by getting the highest percentage of WAR/Dollar spent.  That's most often a combination of mid-tier free agents like Cain that have a great year or inexpensive guys that produce 2-3 WAR.

		% of	Cost
	WINS	WAR	per WAR
2019 Twins	101	30%	3.357	Cruz 13M / Gonzalez 10.5 / Castro 8.2 / Pineda 5 / Perez 3.5
2018 Brewers	96	29%	3.403	Cain / 16M / Chacin / 7.75 / Miley 2.5
2019 Rays	96	26%	1.968	Morton / 15M / Garcia 3.5 / D'Arnaud 1
2013 Pirates	94	29%	1.878	Liriano / Martin 7.5 / Grili 3.4
2012 Athletics	94	47%	1.877	Cespedes 9M / Crisp 8.5  /  Balfour 4.1 / Colon 2 / Gomes 1

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The most successful teams among the group you referenced did not have a free agent making more than $16M/year.  That was Cain for Milwaukee in 2018 in in the first year of a 5 year deal.  He produced 2.5 WAR over the remaining 4 years.  The last team in this group (KC) to win a world series did not have a free agent that produced more than 1.5 WAR.  The teams that produced the most from free agency did so by getting the highest percentage of WAR/Dollar spent.  That's most often a combination of mid-tier free agents like Cain that have a great year or inexpensive guys that produce 2-3 WAR.

		% of	Cost
	WINS	WAR	per WAR
2019 Twins	101	30%	3.357	Cruz 13M / Gonzalez 10.5 / Castro 8.2 / Pineda 5 / Perez 3.5
2018 Brewers	96	29%	3.403	Cain / 16M / Chacin / 7.75 / Miley 2.5
2019 Rays	96	26%	1.968	Morton / 15M / Garcia 3.5 / D'Arnaud 1
2013 Pirates	94	29%	1.878	Liriano / Martin 7.5 / Grili 3.4
2012 Athletics	94	47%	1.877	Cespedes 9M / Crisp 8.5  /  Balfour 4.1 / Colon 2 / Gomes 1

I don't know which of my points you're trying to refute, but I gather you're 100% on board with the Santana, Farmer, Desclafani, and Margot. I can't say I agree with your opinion that high floor depth and utility players should be the focus for a team on a tight budget.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know which of my points you're trying to refute, but I gather you're 100% on board with the Santana, Farmer, Desclafani, and Margot. I can't say I agree with your opinion that high floor depth and utility players should be the focus for a team on a tight budget.

If that's what you got from my post, IDK what to say.

[Riverbrian]

Willi Castro has started 18 straight games. 

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 5/6/2024 at 8:18 AM, Riverbrian said:

Willi Castro has started 18 straight games. 

 

Are you sure one or two of those games weren't just a little bit curved?

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Are you sure one or two of those games weren't just a little bit curved?

They were in between two bodies of water. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

46 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

They were in between two bodies of water. 

Ah... Wait a minute... Have they been playing in the water all this time?

Ryan's polo background has served him well.

[stringer bell]

I’ve sung Willi’s praises for a while, but he’s not a regular center fielder. I didn’t see the game on Tuesday, but it sounds like he had a rough game out there. It’s a continuation of his defensive struggles at a key position. 
 

I think Willi’s best defensive position is left field and he’s been good at third base. He was passable at short filling in for Correa and has struggled in center. 

[Mike Sixel]

Been impressed at him again this year, was not expecting him to be good again, given his history. Excellent signing by the FO.

[stringer bell]

On 5/15/2024 at 12:14 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Been impressed at him again this year, was not expecting him to be good again, given his history. Excellent signing by the FO.

Bumping this thread after no posting in ten days. The thought in the OP was that Castro might develop into a "unassigned regular", which has happened so far this year, mostly due to the injuries of Buxton, Correa and Lewis. IMHO, the overall results have been uneven. Willi has a 60% stolen base success rate (well below average) and hasn't contributed that much in the base running area. He struggled as the primary center fielder and was acceptable as the primary shortstop when Correa was injured. BBRef has Willi at -5 runs on defense and 0 for base running. Last year, Willi provided +4 runs from base running and +5 from fielding. 

Castro leads the 2024 Twins in plate appearances and I believe he is a plus defender in left field and third base, but he has been stretched into playing more center field and shortstop. The offense has held up and looking ahead, playing Castro primarily in positions where he's a better defender, he's a very valuable member of the team.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Bumping this thread after no posting in ten days. The thought in the OP was that Castro might develop into a "unassigned regular", which has happened so far this year, mostly due to the injuries of Buxton, Correa and Lewis. IMHO, the overall results have been uneven. Willi has a 60% stolen base success rate (well below average) and hasn't contributed that much in the base running area. He struggled as the primary center fielder and was acceptable as the primary shortstop when Correa was injured. BBRef has Willi at -5 runs on defense and 0 for base running. Last year, Willi provided +4 runs from base running and +5 from fielding. 

Castro leads the 2024 Twins in plate appearances and I believe he is a plus defender in left field and third base, but he has been stretched into playing more center field and shortstop. The offense has held up and looking ahead, playing Castro primarily in positions where he's a better defender, he's a very valuable member of the team.

Castro is going to probably make $6MM if the Twins tender him a contract. I'm not sure where you get "plus defender in left field" though? He's a career 3.6 UZR/150 guy in left field, -1 OAA, -7 Total Zone/yr, 0 DRS/yr. He's been unplayably bad in center field. His career marks at SS are pretty rough, but a lot of that was his first couple years. He's been decent enough there for the past few years. I suspect Castro would have taken a significant step forward in defensive value at any position if he wasn't deployed in a utility fashion.

Unfortunately, he's taken a big step back in speed at least based on Statcast's sprint speed. For his career, he's hovered around 28.5, but this year he's dropped to 27.9 (not suited for CF). This bears itself out in his sprints to 1B. Castro is getting a better jump out of the hole at the plate than ever, but he's losing ground against his younger self down the base line. For what it's worth, Castro's base running while not trying to steal seems to be very good this year.

He's on pace to hit 4.2 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR having played in every single game this year so far on the back of a recent huge surge at the plate. We'll have to see how the rest of the year treats Castro and who the GM is at the end of the year when Falvey's contract runs out.

[stringer bell]

53 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Castro is going to probably make $6MM if the Twins tender him a contract. I'm not sure where you get "plus defender in left field" though? He's a career 3.6 UZR/150 guy in left field, -1 OAA, -7 Total Zone/yr, 0 DRS/yr. He's been unplayably bad in center field. His career marks at SS are pretty rough, but a lot of that was his first couple years. He's been decent enough there for the past few years. I suspect Castro would have taken a significant step forward in defensive value at any position if he wasn't deployed in a utility fashion.

Unfortunately, he's taken a big step back in speed at least based on Statcast's sprint speed. For his career, he's hovered around 28.5, but this year he's dropped to 27.9 (not suited for CF). This bears itself out in his sprints to 1B. Castro is getting a better jump out of the hole at the plate than ever, but he's losing ground against his younger self down the base line. For what it's worth, Castro's base running while not trying to steal seems to be very good this year.

He's on pace to hit 4.2 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR having played in every single game this year so far on the back of a recent huge surge at the plate. We'll have to see how the rest of the year treats Castro and who the GM is at the end of the year when Falvey's contract runs out.

BBRef had him in positive territory in Defensive Runs Saved last year. From what I can see, Willi has plus range over most left fielders and a far better arm than average. I have a hard time seeing why his sprint speed would diminish that much year to year in his age 26 to 27 years, but I guess I don't dispute it. 

[bean5302]

59 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

BBRef had him in positive territory in Defensive Runs Saved last year. From what I can see, Willi has plus range over most left fielders and a far better arm than average. I have a hard time seeing why his sprint speed would diminish that much year to year in his age 26 to 27 years, but I guess I don't dispute it. 

...and he's -23 DRS/yr this year. All his years of fielding are small sample sizes because he's been used as a utility guy. That's why I use his career numbers.

Castro does not currently have more effective range than the average left fielder because he runs poor routes so it takes him more distance to get to the ball, offsetting his small advantage in speed over the average left fielder (27.4 ft/sec vs. 27.9 ft/sec). He also has a poor error rate. If the Twins deployed him as a starting left fielder instead of a utility player, I do expect his defense would improve to be above average. Sprint speed starts declining after age 25, in general, dropping 0.5 ft/sec isn't ginormous. Could be Castro gained 10lbs or didn't adjust his offseason workouts to keep his speed or maybe he had a small tweak of his ankle or something hampering him a little.

If Castro keeps performing at the plate, he's certainly going to be tendered at $6MM, but he'd be better used as a full time outfielder than a utility guy since I'm not sure there's space in the infield. Tough to say how the the year will shake out in terms of roster, prospects, etc.

[DocBauer]

IMO, Castro is a good, solid, pretty much average or somewhat above performer offensively. That's based on his 108 OPS+ in 2023 and his 120 OPS+ so far in 2024, which is probably unsustainable. I know the run game portion of his performance is down right now, but I can see that picking up.

Defensively, and this is MY OPINION based on watching him quite a lot as a Twin, eye test if you will, his best 2 spots are LF and 3B. I also believe he's just fine at SS...though Lee will have something to say about that soon...and he's decent/solid/OK in CF. IMO, his issues in CF are playing there too much. I remain hopeful Martin or Keirsey will establish themselves as a 4th/5th OF with offensive value as the PRIMARY backup CF.

But unless we see real regression...which we aren't seeing so far...Castro is NOT an Al Newman, or even Punto type of utility player. I think the comp to guys like Merrifield are fair. He's really a average or above 10th man who fills a unique roll in the lineup, or off the bench. I don't believe he needs to be extended at this time for sure. We've still got him under control for 2025 to continue to see how he does. But he's certainly not going to break the payroll next season, and I doubt he'd do so IF signed to a 2 or 3yr extension. But again, it's not a decision that has to take place for at least a year.

But I can see a logical scenario where he remains a Twin through his age 30 season on some sort of a $5-6M per extension. There's a lot of talent on this team that is going to remain fairly inexpensive for the next few years, on hand, and coming up. 

For now, he's valuable, productive, important, and under control for 2025. 

[DJL44]

On 5/2/2024 at 3:14 PM, bean5302 said:

It's foolish to spend $5-10MM a year on a utility player when you're on a budget because they're usually available for league minimum out of your farm system. Is Willi Castro at 2.5-3.0 WAR worth $7-10MM more than Walker Jenkins at $780k or Brooks Lee at $780k?

If the Twins gave Castro a 3 year $15M contract extension he would be quite tradeable. Contracts have value beyond the context of your current roster.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins gave Castro a 3 year $15M contract extension he would be quite tradeable. Contracts have value beyond the context of your current roster.

and if he finishes the year at wRC+ 90? Negative value on a team with a payroll crunch. See book of Vazquez, chapter Christian.

[stringer bell]

I'm going to bump this thread again as we approach mid-season. Castro has maintained a projected 5 WAR season, while demonstrating maximum versatility. From what I can see, he is on track to play in 20+ games at five defensive positions, perhaps the first ever to do this. He has played in every game and he leads the team in plate appearances.