3 Former Top 5 Twins Prospects Sent to Minor-League Camp

[Seth Stohs]

On Monday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins reduced their spring training roster to 41 players by sending a group of three former top prospects to minor-league camp.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Just 10 days away from Opening Day, the Twins have little time left to reduce their roster to 26 active players. On Sunday, we learned that Jhoan Durán, Caleb Thielbar and Anthony DeSclafani will start the season on the Injured List. Josh Winder is already on the 60-day injured list. So really, they have fewer cuts left to make than it appears, because injured guys won't take up those active places. 

Take a quick look through Twins top prospect lists between 2019 and 2022, and you are likely to find Jordan Balazovic, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda quite high on them. All three of these players have shown up on some global Top-100 rankings in their time. Yet on Sunday, March 17, 2024, all three of them were told that their seasons would begin in Triple-A. 

All three have had highs and lows in their young careers. At times, their prospect lights shone bright. At other times, injuries or on-field (or even off-field) issues kept them from reaching the potential many believe that each possesses. 

Let’s take a look at all three and figure out what they most need to work on not only to get back to the Twins, but also to stick with the team.

Jordan Balazovic 
It’s a strange place to be for a former top prospect. Balazovic burst onto the scene in 2018, when he put together a strong rookie season in the Gulf Coast League and Keith Law pointed him out as a top prospect. The 2016 fifth-round pick from Mississauga, Ontario has had ups and downs in his time with the Twins. In fact, earlier this year, he was designated for assignment to make room for a waiver claim. He cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul, so he’s not on the 40-man roster.

A quick look at the Balazovic profile and it’s impossible not to see why people would be excited. He's 6-foot-5 and lanky. His fastball averaged 95.2 mph. He’s got a sharp mid-to-high-80s slider that can be a strikeout pitch. He also has a low-80s curveball that can be 12-6 or 11-5 in shape, because of his high release point. He also can throw a splitter. It will be interesting to see if or how his pitch mix is updated throughout the season and in his transition full-time to the bullpen. The stuff is there.

What he needs to focus on most: Consistency and command. 

There are times when Balazovic has shown good control and kept the walks down. Other times, he can have extended stretches of poor control. As we all know, too, control is just part of the equation. Command is even more vital. Being able to command the ball within the strike zone is crucial in the big leagues, where hitters just don’t miss mistakes as often. 

José Miranda 
Miranda was the third of four high-school hitters selected in the first 75 picks of the 2016 draft. He had the size and strength to be a top prospect, but he often found himself in the 15-25 range of prospects. We kept hearing about his potential, and it definitely showed up at times with power. However, it always felt like there was a limiting factor. He didn’t strike out much, but he also didn’t walk. In other words, he was a very aggressive hitter who would not only swing at too many pitchers’ pitches, but had tremendous bat control and often put those pitches in play with weak contact.

During the lost 2020 season, Miranda put in a lot of time really working on better understanding the strike zone. He wanted to understand not only what was a strike, but what pitches he could put into play with authority. 

If you look at Miranda’s Contact% in the big leagues, it was 77.5% in 2022 and 77.3% in 2023. That’s negligible. But digging into the details, we see something that might be a factor. In 2022, when swinging outside the zone, he made contact on 63.8% of swings. In 2023, that number bumped up to 66.9%--not a huge jump, but noticeable. On the other side, on pitches inside the strike zone, he made contact 88.2% of the time in 2022 and that number dropped to 85.8% in 2023.

These aren’t huge changes on their own. However, it can be noted that he made contact more often with pitches outside the zone, likely resulting in weaker contact. At the same time, more swing-and-miss on pitches in the zone. Again, that combined 5.5% doesn’t seem like a huge deal. But sometimes that turns a 2-1 count into a 1-2 count, or a 3-1 count (hitter’s advantage) into a 2-2 count (pitcher’s advantage).

So as I’ve said throughout spring training, with Miranda it isn’t so much about the stat line for me. It’s all about plate discipline. When he improved his ability to lay off tough pitches, as he did in 2021 and 2022, he mashed. He hit for average and power. In 2023, when he swung at more pitches outside the zone, the numbers just weren’t there. So, I will be watching how his strike zone judgment improves in 2024. 

What he needs to focus on most: Controlling the zone. 

To be fair, Miranda spent the 2023 season fighting a shoulder injury. It cost him time in spring training, and during the season, and then late in the season he had surgery. This spring, he really only acted as a designated hitter and played some first base. Hopefully, the shoulder continues to improve and he can get back to third base as well. 

Trevor Larnach
The Twins' first-round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, Larnach is still struggling to establish himself. While he didn’t play during the COVID-marred 2020 season, he did spend that year at CHS Field. Despite the lost season, he was called up quickly in 2021. Each year when he has been called up, he has done very well. He has shown immense power and offensive ability. At his best, he has a great swing that hits line drives to the opposite field. There was some concern about his ability to turn on pitches with authority, but a look back at some of his home runs in Triple-A and the big leagues shows that he’s got plenty of power to the pull side. 

You hear it talked about often: Larnach’s struggles have come from an inability to hit breaking balls or changeups. There’s no denying that. There has been a lot written on these pages about that, which you can find here. 

His Barrel rate has increased in each of his three seasons. His Hard Hit rate has increased each season, from 33.5% in 2021 to 46.0% in 2023. His average exit velocities have been either 90.0 mph or 90.1 mph during those three years, and his maximum exit velocity is a robust 112.0. 

Two things jump out to me, though. His Launch Angle was 13.1 degrees his first two MLB seasons. In 2023, it jumped to 17.5 degrees. In addition, his fly-ball rate jumped from 39.0% in 2022 to 47.8% in 2023. 

Don’t get me wrong. Launch angle is good. Obviously, avoiding ground balls is a good thing. However, there is also a limit to productive launch angles. Lazy fly balls and pop-ups are just as easily turned into outs as grounders. But has it been preached into his mind so much that hitting the ball in the air and pulling the ball and hitting homers are what he needs to do, has it messed up what makes him a great natural hitter? In an ideal world, I’d love to watch Larnach with a season full of line drives to left or left-center. Every once in a while, turn on a pitch, but go back to hitting the ball hard somewhere on a line.  

What he needs to focus on most: Hit the ball where it’s pitched.

Get back to some basics, the things that made him a first-round pick. Keep it simple. Don’t overthink it. See ball in zone, hit ball. Larnach is a big, strong dude. He’s going to hit a lot of homers one year soon.

"Back to the basics" is a good theme for any pitcher or hitter to remember. For pitchers, mix up your pitches, throw strikes and really work on command inside the zone. For hitting, know the strike zone. Try not to expand the zone. Hit it hard where it is pitched. 

This is a big season for all three of these former top prospects. Larnach turned 27 last month. Miranda and Balazovic will turn 26 during the season. Larnach has been passed up, at least for now, by Matt Wallner. However, Wallner has struggled this spring, and Max Kepler is likely gone into free agency a year from now. Miranda knows that Royce Lewis is going to get the majority of time at third base. Edouard Julien has taken over at second base, and Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are getting close. Alex Kirilloff hasn’t taken hold of a position, first base or DH yet, and Carlos Santana is on a one-year deal. Playing time can be had. And with how liberally the Twins use their 40-man roster in the bullpen, Balazovic could get more chances. 

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The Twins' spring roster now stands at 41 players. Nine of them are non-roster guys. Twenty-one pitchers are still in camp (three of them non-roster invitees). There are still four catchers (two non-roster). There are eight infielders; just one is a non-roster player. There are five outfielders, all on the 40-man roster. Two utility players remain. 

Non-Roster players remaining include right-handed pitchers Matt Bowman, Jeff Brigham, and Daniel Duarte. Brian O’Keefe and Chris Williams are the two non-roster catchers. The versatile Niko Goodrum, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, and Brooks Lee remain in big-league camp as well.

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[Shaitan]

Reading between the lines, you seem to be suggesting that Larnach's coaching might be to blame for his stalled development?

[mnfireman]

26 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Reading between the lines, you seem to be suggesting that Larnach's coaching might be to blame for his stalled development?

System failure. Not all batters are the same, but the team seems to be coaching them that way....launch angle = HRs.

Some guys are more adept at hard hit line drives, with some of those becoming HRs, instead of the highlight reel, tape measure shots.

Maybe coach to the players strengths, or trade them for guys that fit the system. 

[h2oface]

Better to have Wallner getting no hits and striking out all April, eh? I think, since all have options, you would do well to let the worst performing player suck in AAA until he warms up and starts hitting. No need to have in left field striking out all month. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Seth! Very good analysis. Hope they can figure it out.

[jkcarew]

The points regarding Larnach (and Martin) may be legitimate, but it’s not a Twins issue. It’s a league-wide phenomenon.

MLB developmental systems are going to try to maximize in-game power with every single prospect they get their hands on…let alone a 6-3 220+ lb guy with limited defensive value like Larnach. If it doesn’t work for one guy…there’ll be plenty of others to take his place. Blame analytics. Larnach may simply have been better off professionally having been born 20 years earlier than he was.

 

[jorgenswest]

All players need to make adjustments as they work through the minors. Some handle it and make it. Some take more time. If Larnach is going to have an impact on a corner or DH he is going to need to hit and hit with power. He will need to hit breaking balls well enough to force pitchers to throw the fastball more often. Those changes have been slow in coming. If Martin is going to be more than a utility player he needs to hit with some extra base power. That has been slow in coming partially due to injury. I hope that he continues to seek more power in his approach. With a little more pop he is a major league regular.

 

[Kenny Powers]

At least Larnach (.850 OPS) and Miranda (.816 OPS) have had success through AAA.  Both certainly remain viable options with value.  But it's no mystery why Balazovic has not only fallen off the prospect lists - but off the roster completely.  He did ok in AA (not great - but ok) but then has been shelled in AAA:

162 innings, 6.22 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over the last two years at AAA.  I saw him pitch there a couple times and watched lots of hard hit balls.  I was surprised he remained on the prospect lists for the last two years.  I guess initial scouting/reputation carry a lot of weight for making those lists.  However, the production never matched the hype for him once he got past A ball.

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Reading between the lines, you seem to be suggesting that Larnach's coaching might be to blame for his stalled development?

No, because I know they have different, unique improvement plans for each player. That said, we've heard it with Austin Martin. The Twins wanted to pull more power out of him, and after trying it, and struggling, he went back to his old mentality with the bat (get on base, use the whole field, etc.).  Adding power has helped a lot of players over the years. It's probably helped Larnach as he does have the ability. I just think it'd also be good for him to hit the ball the opposite way more, focus on contact. he's still got enough power to launch homers, but contact now is the key. 

 

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

System failure. Not all batters are the same, but the team seems to be coaching them that way....launch angle = HRs.

Some guys are more adept at hard hit line drives, with some of those becoming HRs, instead of the highlight reel, tape measure shots.

Maybe coach to the players strengths, or trade them for guys that fit the system. 

I don't think it's a failure to encourage hitting the ball in the air. Doesn't mean pop ups. The goal is always to know the zone, know your swing, and hit the ball hard. If the swing produces launch between like 16 and 34, that's a good thing. 

Launch Angle and Exit Velocity are nothing to be afraid of. They don't take away from player strengths, they are just stats, numbers, etc.  

Launch Angle = just a result, and all know that ground balls are generally outs, and pop ups aren't good. 

Exit Velocity = hit the ball hard. I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with that. 

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Better to have Wallner getting no hits and striking out all April, eh? I think, since all have options, you would do well to let the worst performing player suck in AAA until he warms up and starts hitting. No need to have in left field striking out all month. 

Spring training stats shouldn't be a factor. 

[jkcarew]

4 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

No, because I know they have different, unique improvement plans for each player. That said, we've heard it with Austin Martin. The Twins wanted to pull more power out of him, and after trying it, and struggling, he went back to his old mentality with the bat (get on base, use the whole field, etc.).  Adding power has helped a lot of players over the years. It's probably helped Larnach as he does have the ability. I just think it'd also be good for him to hit the ball the opposite way more, focus on contact. he's still got enough power to launch homers, but contact now is the key. 

 

Larnach had a pretty low K rate in the minors, until AAA…and then it ballooned in the majors. Not that uncommon, I suppose. But it’s something, anyway. Not like he’s always had the issue as a pro.

[Seth Stohs]

49 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The points regarding Larnach (and Martin) may be legitimate, but it’s not a Twins issue. It’s a league-wide phenomenon.

MLB developmental systems are going to try to maximize in-game power with every single prospect they get their hands on…let alone a 6-3 220+ lb guy with limited defensive value like Larnach. If it doesn’t work for one guy…there’ll be plenty of others to take his place. Blame analytics. Larnach may simply have been better off professionally having been born 20 years earlier than he was.

 

Ability to hit spin was pretty important then too. And people still cared about batting average. 

[Guest]

St. Paul's going to have a helluva team....

[Shaitan]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

System failure. Not all batters are the same, but the team seems to be coaching them that way....launch angle = HRs.

Some guys are more adept at hard hit line drives, with some of those becoming HRs, instead of the highlight reel, tape measure shots.

Maybe coach to the players strengths, or trade them for guys that fit the system. 

I don't disagree with any of your philosophies here but do you have any proof the Twins are actually coaching this universally?

That's why I asked my original question. If it was an organizational decision vs something that we, as fans, guess at while reading the data. I think Seth answered this well.

That said, launch angle isn't about turning line drives into rainbows. It's about adding a couple degrees to improve the HR rate on already well hit balls. Obviously no coach wants a bunch of pop-ups.

[DocBauer]

I can see a place in 2025 for both Miranda and Larnach as long as they are healthy, and as long as each continues to work and develop in 2024 while in St Paul. I'm certainly not saying they aren't important depth and won't contribute this season, but I see full time roster spots for both next year.

MIRANDA: He's a big, strong dude. As long as he resorts back to the "good contact" approach he developed in 2021 and as a ML rookie in 2022, he should be part of the 1B/DH mix next season and might still sneak in at 3B here and there as/if needed. When someone figures something out, and does it for 2 years, but then gets hurt and loses it, I give them the benefit of the doubt and kinda expect them to do it again. That's Miranda. And while he hasn't been dominate this spring, he's looked more like his old self.

LARNACH: I'm not certain at this point if Larnach will ever be a full time starter, at least for the Twins. I've said previously I think he'd hit .225-.230 and stroke 20+ HR and 30+ DBls if he got 500 AB's. (even if that meant some obvious struggles against LHP). We've seen glimpses of what he can do. And I agree, maybe he's been too worried about power and pulling and hitting breaking balls to the point where he's gotten in to his own head. He does have natural power and a smooth stroke. Sort of like Kepler, I think he just needs to trust in his natural swing and power and just get the bat to meet the ball firmly and some good results will follow. If Kepler is indeed gone next year, Wallner moves to RF. I have a hunch we'll see Martin on a daily basis, starting in LF, and filling in for Buxton in CF for days off or when injuries hit. Larnach will be part of the DH mix and will cover both corner OF spots. So he might still be a fixture, but maybe more as an "almost daily" lineup presence but not a full time starter.

BALAZOVIC: No clue how he's fallen this far this fast. He's big, strong, lanky, got good velocity, and a handful of at least solid secondary offerings. I know his knee injury, and trying to compensate for it, really messed him up a couple years ago. But he was supposedly fully healthy in 2023 and was a complete mess. Which I find all the more baffling as he arrived at camp early and anxious to prove himself. He's still only 25yo, so it's nice to have him still around and see if he can turn the corner, now as a bullpen option. Certainly, the stuff is there to be a factor out of the pen, if he can just get re-focused and get nasty for 1-2 innings at a time. I'm not expecting that to happen at this point. I don't feel confident he's going to suddenly turn his career around. But it would be awesome if he did.

[David HK]

5 hours ago, mnfireman said:

System failure. Not all batters are the same, but the team seems to be coaching them that way....launch angle = HRs.

Some guys are more adept at hard hit line drives, with some of those becoming HRs, instead of the highlight reel, tape measure shots.

Maybe coach to the players strengths, or trade them for guys that fit the system. 

Hmmm..... I seem to remember a squeezably soft power hitter that just wouldn't conform to TK's "go the other way" approach.  I think he moved on to the Red Sox and did OK after that... 🤔

[David HK]

And dang, it looks like the Keoni Cavaco Era gets pushed back another year, too.

[JD-TWINS]

Unless Santana gets hurt - Miranda is just refining his offense in St. Paul this season.

If Wallner can’t get it together soon - Larnach may get another chance by 4/15.

Balszovic has a long way to go!

[Fred]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

All players need to make adjustments as they work through the minors. Some handle it and make it. Some take more time. If Larnach is going to have an impact on a corner or DH he is going to need to hit and hit with power. He will need to hit breaking balls well enough to force pitchers to throw the fastball more often. Those changes have been slow in coming. If Martin is going to be more than a utility player he needs to hit with some extra base power. That has been slow in coming partially due to injury. I hope that he continues to seek more power in his approach. With a little more pop he is a major league regular.

 

I would like to see Martin leading off for the Twins. He seems to have a pretty good OBP wherever he plays. Batting Julien behind him (also good OBP) would set the 3, 4, and 5 hitters up to drive in a lot of runs.

[mikelink45]

I do not have faith in any of these players on the mlb roster. I wish I did, but with prospects there is a window that opens and closes.  These three are fringe players at best. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Spring training stats shouldn't be a factor. 

It will be.

[High heat]

I like to see the faith in Wallner.  He must be working on something specific and Twins are ok with the poor number knowing he is working on it.

 

Larnach doesn’t have much left in the organization.  Whether he was going to fail anywhere or organizationally failed him is unknown but probably deserves a chance elsewhere.  
 

Miranda gets healthy and can figure out a bit of plate disappoint he will be fine. 
 

Glad to see all the utility guys still in camp.  Wa hoping to see Chris Williams a bit more behind the plate but I think that has sailed.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Spring training stats shouldn't be a factor. 

 

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

It will be.

Since apparently all of the roster decisions have been made, which decision was made based on Spring Training stats in your opinion?

[RpR]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

 

Since apparently all of the roster decisions have been made, which decision was made based on Spring Training stats in your opinion?

Apparently?

Says what or whom?

Tell ByoungHo Park or Castro that Spring Training means nothing.

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, High heat said:

Larnach doesn’t have much left in the organization.  Whether he was going to fail anywhere or organizationally failed him is unknown but probably deserves a chance elsewhere.  
 

Miranda gets healthy and can figure out a bit of plate disappoint he will be fine. 
 

Larnach's last option was just used. I expect he'll spend most of his 2024 in St. Paul, but chances of an injury to a corner OF are pretty high, so he'll get some time with the Twins. With Kepler likely leaving after this year, maybe the Twins will hang on to Larnach believing he can help them in 2025.

There are DH at-bats to be had this year and next. Miranda and Larnach could be in line for many of those ABs. It will be a huge year for both of those guys and if they don't step up, they likely won't be around next year.

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, High heat said:

I like to see the faith in Wallner.  He must be working on something specific and Twins are ok with the poor number knowing he is working on it.

If --  Wallner comes up it is probably because they have no one else to play Left Field that is much better although it is hard to be worse.

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, RpR said:

Apparently?

Says what or whom?

Tell ByoungHo Park or Castro that Spring Training means nothing.

Falvey has stated that Durán, Thielbar and DeSclafani are starting the season on the IL. With the roster players who have been optioned, there remain 27 for 26 players. There are 14 rostered pitchers, so one will have to be optioned. The players with options who haven't been guaranteed a spot are Staumont, Funderburk, Alcalá and Sands. The consensus is that Sands will be optioned. 

That would leave this active roster: Position players--Jeffers, Vázquez, Kirilloff, Santana, Julien, Farmer, Correa, Lewis, Castro, Kepler, Buxton, Wallner, Margot. Pitchers--López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, Alcalá, Funderburk, Jackson, Staumont, Topa, Okert, Jax, Stewart.

[Linus]

The most plausible explanation is that none of the three are good enough to be big leaguers. It happens all the time hence the reference of AAAA player. Balazovic was waived and EVERY mlb team passed on him for free. What does that say?  Larnach has shown little ability to hit mlb off speed. He is 27 years old and we think he is going to suddenly going to gain that skill?  Miranda is more of a wild card but he has no glove so he is going to have to hit a crap ton to be a big leaguer. I sincerely hope I am wrong on all three but history suggests I’m not. 

[saviking]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I can see a place in 2025 for both Miranda and Larnach as long as they are healthy, and as long as each continues to work and develop in 2024 while in St Paul. I'm certainly not saying they aren't important depth and won't contribute this season, but I see full time roster spots for both next year.

MIRANDA: He's a big, strong dude. As long as he resorts back to the "good contact" approach he developed in 2021 and as a ML rookie in 2022, he should be part of the 1B/DH mix next season and might still sneak in at 3B here and there as/if needed. When someone figures something out, and does it for 2 years, but then gets hurt and loses it, I give them the benefit of the doubt and kinda expect them to do it again. That's Miranda. And while he hasn't been dominate this spring, he's looked more like his old self.

LARNACH: I'm not certain at this point if Larnach will ever be a full time starter, at least for the Twins. I've said previously I think he'd hit .225-.230 and stroke 20+ HR and 30+ DBls if he got 500 AB's. (even if that meant some obvious struggles against LHP). We've seen glimpses of what he can do. And I agree, maybe he's been too worried about power and pulling and hitting breaking balls to the point where he's gotten in to his own head. He does have natural power and a smooth stroke. Sort of like Kepler, I think he just needs to trust in his natural swing and power and just get the bat to meet the ball firmly and some good results will follow. If Kepler is indeed gone next year, Wallner moves to RF. I have a hunch we'll see Martin on a daily basis, starting in LF, and filling in for Buxton in CF for days off or when injuries hit. Larnach will be part of the DH mix and will cover both corner OF spots. So he might still be a fixture, but maybe more as an "almost daily" lineup presence but not a full time starter.

BALAZOVIC: No clue how he's fallen this far this fast. He's big, strong, lanky, got good velocity, and a handful of at least solid secondary offerings. I know his knee injury, and trying to compensate for it, really messed him up a couple years ago. But he was supposedly fully healthy in 2023 and was a complete mess. Which I find all the more baffling as he arrived at camp early and anxious to prove himself. He's still only 25yo, so it's nice to have him still around and see if he can turn the corner, now as a bullpen option. Certainly, the stuff is there to be a factor out of the pen, if he can just get re-focused and get nasty for 1-2 innings at a time. I'm not expecting that to happen at this point. I don't feel confident he's going to suddenly turn his career around. But it would be awesome if he did.

Yep. At the rate our big leagers are dropping like Flys due to injury we will see plenty of Miranda and Larnach.. Not so much Blazo I'm afraid. I just don't think he will ever develop. 

But, if they want to stay they need tonperform when they get their next chance.