Prospect Heaven: 5 Observations from the First Spring Breakout for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Major League Baseball added a new wrinkle to break the monotony of spring training this year, adding a Spring Breakout game for each team to showcase their top prospects in a head-to-head competition against those from another organization.

I was in attendance for Minnesota's first-ever Spring Breakout on Saturday, against the Tampa Bay Rays. Here are some things that stood out.

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

The minor leagues and prospect development are one of the unique aspects of following baseball compared to other sports. There's a whole different universe of teams, players and stories to track throughout your favorite team's system, all summer long, with implications on the future of the big-league club. Obsessing over prospects is one of my most valued aspects of baseball fandom, and I know many readers and writers here at Twins Daily feel the same. 

As such, MLB's decision to introduce these Spring Breakouts as a league-wide convention in the late stage of camp struck me as an excellent one. It's a way to lean in and celebrate prospect culture, intermingling advanced young players who are nearing MLB-readiness (i.e. Brooks Lee) with teenagers who've barely gotten their feet wet at the pro level (i.e. Brandon Winokur).

About 30 minutes after Saturday's standard Grapefruit League contest between the Twins and Rays concluded, the prospect showdown got underway, essentially serving as the back end of a doubleheader at that ballpark. The seven-inning affair saw Tampa's prospects build a sizable early lead before Minnesota broke through with an eight-run third to take the lead, but the Rays battled back to tie the game 8-8, which ended up being the final score.

 

Here are five observations I came away from the prospect showcase with:

1. Jenkins misses out
Much of the event's luster was unfortunately siphoned away in the lead-up, as we learned a couple of days beforehand that Walker Jenkins, the Twins' top prospect and one of the highest-rated in baseball, would not participate. 

Jenkins is dealing with a quad strain that is considered minor. He's still been very present around the minor-league fields while I've been here, and he's still been hitting. It sounds like the Twins just don't want to push him to run at full speed in game situations at this time, which is understandable. But still a big bummer given that Jenkins figured to be the main attraction for this game aside from Rays top prospect Junior Caminero (No. 4 in all of baseball, per MLB Pipeline).

2. Festa throws fire
Twins starter David Festa, ranked by Twins Daily as the organization's fifth-best prospect entering 2024, got the starting nod and demonstrated why he's so highly regarded. He may have been a little extra revved for his first-inning matchup against Caminero, against whom he threw his hardest pitch of the day: a four-seamer that clocked at 96.8 MPH. 

Festa totaled 35 pitches over 1 ⅔ before being removed in the second. He gave up a run on a walk and two hits, but generally looked impressive, striking out three of the eight batters he faced while inducing some ugly swings.

3. Soto is electric yet erratic
We've all been waiting a long time to get eyes on Charlee Soto. Minnesota's second pick in last year's draft after Jenkins (34th overall) didn't pitch after joining the organization, setting him up to make his pro debut this year. Minnesota doesn't often pursue high school arms in the draft, especially with such a high pick, but Soto was considered special, boasting a high-octane arsenal that dazzled scouts in the prep circuit.

That arsenal was on display when the 18-year-old entered to pitch in the third inning. He unleashed a barrage of fastballs in the 97-98 MPH range, topping out at 98.5, along with several sliders and changeups in the upper 80s. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily to command these pitches, throwing just nine of 21 for strikes and issuing two walks, including one with the bases loaded that led to his getting pulled after recording only two outs. 

Soto seemed to have his own dedicated cheering section behind him plate. That, along with the opportunity to finally pitch before fans in a pro stadium, might've led to him being a little overly amped up. But his control will be something to watch this season as he gets going in real minor-league games. It's pretty clear the stuff is legit.

4. Emma flashes his skills
No. 3 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez is an exciting talent because of his dynamic skill set: power, speed, patience, defense. He started in center field and had a chance to show off some of the things he can do. In his first at-bat he tapped a single the other way, then stole second base. In his second AB he drew a walk with the bases loaded to pick up an RBI.

 

The only hurdle that threatens to hold Rodriguez back is his difficulty making consistent contact. That wasn't an issue in this game but it was apparent during his time on the major-league side this spring, where he struck out 13 times in 24 plate appearances. Then again, he was the youngest player in camp, having just turned 21 at the end of February.

5. Gonzalez gets a hold of one
Gabriel Gonzalez, centerpiece of the package received from Seattle for Jorge Polanco, has a rep for two things: swinging at almost everything, and doing damage when he makes contact. Both qualities were on display in the Breakout. 

In his first at-bat, Gonzalez swung at three of the four pitches he saw, including a couple that were well out of the zone, and struck out. In his second, he came up with the bases loaded and delivered a two-run double, getting the end of his bat on a pitch at the knees from lefty Drew Sommers and poking it into left center. 

 

He did draw a four-pitch walk in his third trip to the plate, dialing back the signature aggressiveness a bit, though none of the pitches were close enough to be tempting. Last year, between two levels of Single-A in the Mariners system, Gonzalez drew only 36 walks in 535 plate appearances, but posted an .837 OPS with 18 homers and 84 RBIs.

Did you watch this televised prospect showcase on Saturday? What caught your eye? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the game, or the general concept of this Spring Breakout prospect showcase, in the comments.

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[DocBauer]

Considering it was a mix of players that were 18-25yo, A to AAA, the fact that it ended 8-8 in a tie was probably appropriate. I LOVE this entire format idea and hope it continues. It's good for baseball, good for the fans, and good for the players.

My ONLY complaint...and I may be proven wrong with this...but the MLB channel should show all the games, either on a staggered airing, or on repeats. Now, again, maybe I'm wrong and they will show all the games on replay.

Unfortunately, I worked today so I was only able to sneak in about the first 3 innings. But for what I did see...

FESTA: The velocity was great. All arms and legs and a mostly over the top delivery, I can see him being a nightmare for batters not picking up the ball early. My personal eye isn't always good at picking up pitches as to what they actually are. I had a hard time picking up which pitches were sliders and which were change ups. They all seemed to come in at the high 80's. And that probably speaks to how good his stuff is that it's hard to see what's coming out of his hand.

SOTO: An 18yo kid who hasn't pitched for about a year, facing at least a few hitters who were probably AA or higher...even A ball players have more experience than he does...the results were about what I expected. 

But as Nick reported, you can see where the excitement comes from, at least physically...I'm already a fan of the quality of the kid as a person...when you see long legs, a delivery that looks repeatable, and velocity in the high 90's. With his build, you can see him grow easily from 210lbs to 225 and carry it well.

Pitching wise, what I saw was bad control initially. Then he seemed to settle down and hit the zone better and get a couple outs. Then, he lost control again, which lead to a run scoring walk and his exit. 

But I can easily see where all the excitement comes from!

I was disappointed in Lawyerson when he came in. He got out of the inning, but he was wild. I didn't expect that.

I only saw the 1 AB from Emma. I was concerned he might K, then he got the single. The SB was a second hilight. 

Yes, Jenkins being able to play would have made this an even better event. He might have hit a HR, or he might have K'd. But just seeing him would have been fun.

One game can only reveal so many positives. But just being allowed to watch Festa and Soto was, by itself, a joy for me.

[Fatbat]

This is the best idea MLB has had since banning the shift and instituting the pitch clock.  We have some exciting prospects. Baseball is back!!

[Shaitan]

Sounds like the players were all really excited too. Love the enthusiasm...even if it led to some impulsive swings or pitches.

[wabene]

Fun to watch the young guys. Festa seemed to be 80% off-speed, not many fastballs. That surprised me. Most pitches were 88-89. 

[Otwins]

That was a very fun game and format. My only disappointment was how few fans stayed to watch.  If I would have skipped a game today it would have been the regular spring training game. Way more enthusiasm by both teams in the prospect game. They used the robo umps for the prospect game and I can't wait for it to hit the major leagues. 

[mikelink45]

This really added to Spring Training.  I loved seeing the prospects.  It is better than the NBA in season tournament and I hope they keep it and expand access and publicity.

[Kenny Powers]

Good read.  I concentrated on the pitching.  For me, it's always great to reconcile real velocity vs. what the scouting reports have been telling me.  For this game, I saw:

Festa hit 96.8 mph.  This kid sure seems like a lock to help the big club this season  Festa and Varland give us two high end velocity starters.  But both could have great careers as bullpen arms too if the starter thing doesn't work out.

Soto hit 98.5 mph.  Only 18 years old.  This kid will be fun to watch this year.  Looks like they gotta work on his control though.

Juan Mendez also hit 98.5 mph.  I never heard of this guy before.  He's already 25 years old and has been stuck in A ball the last two years (limited success).  Control seems to be an issue for him as well.

Alejandro Crisostomo hit 95.6 mph.  Another guy I didn't hear much about.  Looks like we signed him as a free agent last year.  Still only 23 years old with only 30 career innings pitched in the minors.

Miquel Rodriguez hit 95.7 mph.  He's 25 years old.  He started in A+ last year before being promoted to AA.  Based on stats, he'll probably have to go back to AA to start this season.

I know velocity isn't the end all.  But it's always fun rooting for the big arms and hoping they can find enough control to be successful.

 

[HrbieFan]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

This is the best idea MLB has had since banning the shift and instituting the pitch clock.  We have some exciting prospects. Baseball is back!!

Pitch clock yes, shift a big heck no. Hit them where they ain't is baseball, not whiney pull happy strikeout machines at the plate 

[Seth Stohs]

A few of my thoughts: 

1.) E-Rod's PA vs Drew Sommers was awesome!! Lefty-Lefty match up. Sommers had a rough outing after the E-Rod PA, facing all right-handers. However, he threw Rodriguez some really tough fastballs and sliders. For him to work the walk was incredibly impressive. 

2.) Jack Noble was really good for two innings. Interesting for him to be on this roster as a guy who was a non-drafted free agent late in 2022 from Long Beach State. 

3.) Rays prospect Xavier Isaac was pretty impressive. Two homers, one to dead center, the other to the opposite field. .

4.) Charlee Soto has a chance to be special. 

[jjswol]

I enjoyed the Spring Breakout game also. Festa and Soto were fun to watch as were a number of the position players. The day was very hot and humid and I think that is why many of the people in attendance left after the regular exhibition game. I believe the announced attendance was 7,240 for game one and by the time the SB game began I would be surprised if there were 2,000 people still there. As the second game moved along the crowd thinned considerably. The Twins/MLB gave away 1,000 packs of the top MLB prospects to the first arriving folks at the ballpark, I was not one of them. I think Nick did a nice job describing the action.

[Squirrel]

12 hours ago, Otwins said:

That was a very fun game and format. My only disappointment was how few fans stayed to watch.  If I would have skipped a game today it would have been the regular spring training game. Way more enthusiasm by both teams in the prospect game. They used the robo umps for the prospect game and I can't wait for it to hit the major leagues. 

It did make for a long day at the ballpark. I thought about coming to the first game part way through but then I didn’t want to have to park a mile away so I ended up getting there early for the first game and leaving after the 3rd inning of the 2nd. I feel like I got to see who and what I wanted. But yes, wish more had stuck around even for the bit that I did.

I think Soto was the highlight for me. Yeah, he gave up quite a few runs and walked several, but he’s young and wow, what power and so young. I hope that doesn’t mean an injury waiting to happen. But it was just fun to see, even just the three innings.

I’d like to see this being the only game of the day. While the minor leaguers do play on the backfields, I’d like to see this highlighted game be front and center and the only game of the day

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Pitch clock yes, shift a big heck no. Hit them where they ain't is baseball, not whiney pull happy strikeout machines at the plate 

Im all about not everyone being a pull happy slugger but I also don't like seeing a shifted defense that leaves half the field uncovered. That wasn’t good for the game imo.

[mikelink45]

It is funny to read all the reactions - especially about Charlie Soto.  He did not impress me.  I am not down on him, but he has a ways to go before I start to see him as the high level prospect everyone else seems to see and want.  

I was impressed by the bats and I was not impressed with the Ray's arms.  

I really want more of these games. 

[Ryan_K]

Also attended the game

 

Lee and Martin seemed to have good chemistry and both looked good on the dirt (still want Martin to be our Alex Gordon in LF)

 

Tough time for 3rd baseman with the errors (it stood out the Rays guys were willing to dive and get glove dirty twins not so much)

 

Caminero was smooth at 3rd with great internal clock and Issac was fun too.

 

Fun auto session but surprised Rays had there guys there but didn't see many of twins top people when I got up there I. e. Jenkins, Lee (grateful for the caminero auto)

[Shaitan]

The A-AAA angle of this is really enlightening too. The minor leagues are such a unique piece of pro sports and this both spotlights prospects but also shows how their development varies.

Best idea for baseball fandom since WBC.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is funny to read all the reactions - especially about Charlie Soto.  He did not impress me.  I am not down on him, but he has a ways to go before I start to see him as the high level prospect everyone else seems to see and want.  

I was impressed by the bats and I was not impressed with the Ray's arms.  

I really want more of these games. 

Soto is literally 18, was drafted out of high school last year, and hasn't pitched a single game in the minors. He was pitching against some of the Rays very top prospects who all had MiLB experience last year, some of whom are even at the AA level. The fact the Twins put him out there to begin with is pretty impressive.

[Twinsrtheworst]

Attended the game also.  What an amaizing experience for the players, coaches, and definitely us fans.  We all win with this idea.  Quite a bit of buzz amongst the players and coaches in the past week about there excitement to be part of the game.  Also, many of the players had family attending, which added to the excitement.  Loved every minute of it and I believe, by observing smiling faces, the players did as well.

[Jocko87]

Really like the idea of getting a Soto or Winkler game action against the older guys.  They will almost certainly pick up something for their journey to the bigs. 

[Al from SoDak]

MLB promoted these games but not enough. Nor did they showcase them. These prospect games should have been magnified and taken precedence over the regular spring training game. This Twins prospect game seemed like an afterthought. The Fort Myers fans either didn't know about or didn't care about this game. Almost no one there. Made me think I need to plan next year's vacation around this game. From the looks of TV, you could have had a seat in the front row.

[Squirrel]

44 minutes ago, Al from SoDak said:

MLB promoted these games but not enough. Nor did they showcase them. These prospect games should have been magnified and taken precedence over the regular spring training game. This Twins prospect game seemed like an afterthought. The Fort Myers fans either didn't know about or didn't care about this game. Almost no one there. Made me think I need to plan next year's vacation around this game. From the looks of TV, you could have had a seat in the front row.

I’d say that the number of people who stuck around for the game is about what you’d get at a minor league game. As I said above, I’d like to see this next year, but have it be the only game, have it be the feature of the day.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm in total agreement with most everyone else: this new idea for a game to showcase the minor league prospects is a fabulous idea. Hopefully, MLB runs with it and keeps this an annual event and does more promotion for the game, maybe even more than a single game if that's realistic. For us diehard fans, this was sheer pleasure!

[mikelink45]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Soto is literally 18, was drafted out of high school last year, and hasn't pitched a single game in the minors. He was pitching against some of the Rays very top prospects who all had MiLB experience last year, some of whom are even at the AA level. The fact the Twins put him out there to begin with is pretty impressive.

That is fine, but no matter what age, he was not that impressive to me.  I am glad he is for everyone else and I will celebrate when he breaks out as a professional.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 3/17/2024 at 11:16 AM, mikelink45 said:

It is funny to read all the reactions - especially about Charlie Soto.  He did not impress me.  I am not down on him, but he has a ways to go before I start to see him as the high level prospect everyone else seems to see and want.  

I was impressed by the bats and I was not impressed with the Ray's arms.  

I really want more of these games. 

 

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

That is fine, but no matter what age, he was not that impressive to me.  I am glad he is for everyone else and I will celebrate when he breaks out as a professional.

You got high expectations then.  A kid with 2 plus plus pitches doesn't impress you that throws 98 mph.   Likely amped up for the game and pitching against hitters much more advanced than him.  This is going to be a major instructional year for him.  Chase Petty in 2021 looks like he was a little further along as a pitcher.  However between the Twins and Reds,  he decided to cut back on velocity,  focus more on location and quality of the pitches he is throwing.  He has had two years in a row of arm discomfort, so they are probably trying to reduce stress on the arm, while maximizing his ability.  He is a top 100 prospect but the ceiling is coming down. 

Soto's ceiling is sky high but he isn't currently in the realm of a Petty.  He seems very similar to Brody Brecht of the Hawkeyes who is a draft prospect this year and 21 years old.  He went 4 innings into friday game, 1 run,  proceeded to give up a hit and 2 walk and was pulled.  His ERA is like 1.8,  ton of strikeouts,  but is only throwing strikes at about 58-60% clip and his whip is 1.46.  Crazy amount of swing and miss will occur from both players, but they are going to have to learn to control the zone to become a high end pitcher in the big leagues.  I am ok with taking the gamble on Soto,  and he is exactly on the track I would expect for a pitcher who has really only been a pitcher for a year or two.  Wait and see.   

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 

You got high expectations then.  A kid with 2 plus plus pitches doesn't impress you that throws 98 mph.   Likely amped up for the game and pitching against hitters much more advanced than him.  This is going to be a major instructional year for him.  Chase Petty in 2021 looks like he was a little further along as a pitcher.  However between the Twins and Reds,  he decided to cut back on velocity,  focus more on location and quality of the pitches he is throwing.  He has had two years in a row of arm discomfort, so they are probably trying to reduce stress on the arm, while maximizing his ability.  He is a top 100 prospect but the ceiling is coming down. 

Soto's ceiling is sky high but he isn't currently in the realm of a Petty.  He seems very similar to Brody Brecht of the Hawkeyes who is a draft prospect this year and 21 years old.  He went 4 innings into friday game, 1 run,  proceeded to give up a hit and 2 walk and was pulled.  His ERA is like 1.8,  ton of strikeouts,  but is only throwing strikes at about 58-60% clip and his whip is 1.46.  Crazy amount of swing and miss will occur from both players, but they are going to have to learn to control the zone to become a high end pitcher in the big leagues.  I am ok with taking the gamble on Soto,  and he is exactly on the track I would expect for a pitcher who has really only been a pitcher for a year or two.  Wait and see.   

I am okay with taking a chance on Soto.  I am not hating him.  I just do not buy into the hype and early ratings.

[nova_twins]

Everyone knows the risk is sky high with flame-throwing 18 year olds. Soto reminds me of Duran - big, somewhat stiff, very hard sinker, good secondary pitches. 

Soto is an exciting prospect despite the odds, because it's hard to find impact pitching.