Minnesota Twins Acquire Outfielder Manuel Margot from Dodgers in 3-Player Trade

[h2oface]

The 2021 Five. With Miller being traded, that makes all of the first five draft picks of 2021 trade bait.

Chase Petty #26 (Reds/Sonny Gray), Noah Miller #36 (Dodgers/Manuel Margot), Steve Hajjar #61 (Reds/Tyler Mahle) , Cade Povich #98 (Orioles/Jorge Lopez), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand #128 (Reds/Tyler Mahle).

David Festa, the Twins Lucky 13th selection, #399, is still hanging in there.

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If they were not comfortable with Martin yet, it was a pretty sure thing that they would not sign an OFer that could not cover CF.  It also made a lot of sense that they focused on splits against LH pitching.  Margot has better splits than anyone you mentioned.

This is their career OBP and wRC+.    MAT  310 / 99    Duvall  301 / 100     Margot   341 / 109.  

Both of the other guys K too much but both had 21 HR in ‘23 to Margot’s 4…….hoping he’s healthy so we get the good side of his defense. Similar amount of AB’s for Duvall - assuming Taylor had more AB’s?

[h2oface]

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

I remember - part of why I used him as an example. For that matter, Kepler was 'blocking' talent last year too, according to lots of the GMs on this forum.

For me, Kepler is our guy in his prime (even though many doubted him for some subpar performance), not a visitor for a year or two, and wasn't and isn't a block out of the blue. But I agree, there are a lot of trade happy GMs.

[Kenny Powers]

6 minutes ago, h2oface said:

The 2021 Five. With Miller being traded, that makes all of the first five draft picks of 2021 trade bait.

Chase Petty #26 (Reds/Sonny Gray), Noah Miller #36 (Dodgers/Manuel Margot), Steve Hajjar #61 (Reds/Tyler Mahle) , Cade Povich #98 (Orioles/Jorge Lopez), Christian Encarnacion-Strand #128 (Reds/Tyler Mahle).

David Festa, the Twins Lucky 13th selection, #399, is still hanging in there.

Yup.  And even more interesting (to me anyway)... not only are those prospects all gone, so are the guys we got for them (Gray, Mahle, Lopez).  

[Fatbat]

11 hours ago, akmanak said:

I find this trade simply a money grab if from my understanding they are receiving 5 million. Miller was a good prospect and hopefully this will not bite us. 

 

I never mind trading prospects if we get something equally in return. This was not one of those trades and again shows the inability of Twins management to put together any type of fair trade when unloading prospects. Dodgers imo won this one. 

We got cash, a bench OF RH bat with a career WAR 12.2 thats only 29 yo. AND a SS prospect for who?  Miller. Who is playing this year in AA ball and has to find his bat to make it to the show.  We can’t possibly lose this trade. 

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yup.  And even more interesting (to me anyway)... not only are those prospects all gone, so are the guys we got for them (Gray, Mahle, Lopez).  

That is the nature of these trades.  It's short-term assets / production traded for long-term assets.  That's generally not a good asset management practice and historically, winning mid and small market teams are built on trading for prospects, not trading them away.  Just look at the Twins recent history.  They traded two rentals to teams that accomplished nothing for Duran and Ryan.  We traded for Mahle and Jorge Lopez who are not only gone but produced nothing.  We also acquired Fulmer at that deadline.  We gave away Cano who ended up being an all-star, 6 years each of Steer and CES who look to be very good MLB players, Sawyer Gibson-Long who did not look that great in Milb but was very good (2.70 ERA) in his initials MLB exposure.  Cade Poviich is also said to be looking ready to contribute for the Orioles.  We would be a considerably better team had the FO not invested in a team that simply was not a contender regardless of the fact they were in 1st place. 

Had they not bought at the 22 deadline.  Steer would replace farmer and CES replaces Sanatana.  Steer is a better bat and plays INF and OF.  CES has way more ceiling as a hitter.  Povich and SGL would be starting depth.  Plus, we would have $11M to invest elsewhere.   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

17 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

So if the Twins are willing to pay $4 million for Margot, then what was Michael A. Taylor asking for?

Plus the Twins would still have the minor league Gold Glove SS to trade for a pitcher.

[miracleb]

16 hours ago, Road trip said:

Hard for me to like this trade.  Maybe Noah Miller never learns to hit, but trading a recent first-rounder for a 29 year old backup outfielder who has pretty much proven to be a below-average MLB bat doesn't seem a good path to improvement.

For a little more money we could have just re-signed Taylor and kept Miller.

If money is so tight then give Martin a chance.  Martin might hit well, while we pretty much know that Margot will be below average.

I fear this means a summer of watching Margot play a lot of LF while Wallner sits on the bench.  I'd live with this if the alternative was a proven hitter, but for Margot?  Not a great scenario.

I SO Agree with Road Trip on this.  Miller could step in defensively right now and play as good as Pedro Florimon did for TWO years......5-6 years ago.  And probably hit as well(not saying much.)  Just to get a back-up out fielder who has a proven track record of not being a major league hitter?  Doesn't make sense!  I would prefer to give that spot to Martin for sure....and probably one or two others before this guy.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, nclahammer said:

I think the Twins could have resigned Michael A. Taylor (who they are very familiar with) for less money and hung onto to Noah Miller, who won a gold glove in Cedar Rapids last season, and whose bat was starting to come around.     Unless Margot is so much better hitting lefties, this one is a head-scratcher to me.

Taylor wanted more money and more years and deserves to get that. So, no, not so simple as that or they would have done it. Also Taylor had a career year. I don’t expect he’ll repeat it

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 hours ago, jkcarew said:

A guy with a 644 minor league OPS over 1100 PA is going to be an 800 OPS guy in the majors?? If the Twins shared this opinion, I can guarantee you they would not have traded him…not for this guy anyway.

I am saying something fundamentally changed with Miller last full.  No different than I think something fundamentally changed with Kepler last fall as well.  The difference with Miller was his zone discipline improved immensely.  He began walking much more, improving batting average, and beginning to get a tad more power.  His OBP in July through August were .321, .354, .365.   That is a player that is showing improvement.  Now it is A+ ball.  Understood.  He is also 21,  no offense I don't care what he did as an 18 an 19 year old.  I care what he is going to do.  He had a .648 OPS last year.  His first 3 months he had an OPS of .550.   His last 3, had an OPS of .750,   and if you looked at just his last 2 months he had an OPS of .790.   In the majors really only needs to be a low .700 number or high .600.  However, yes I do see where he could be an .800 guy.  

[sampleSizeOfOne]

15 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

I am also still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and seeing who we try to slip through waivers to make room for our new outfielder

Per MLBTradeRumors article:

"The Twins placed right-hander Josh Winder on the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot for Margot, announcing that Winder has a scapular stress fracture. "

 

So no shoe dropped, just a sad injury update, which probably everyone else already knew.

[Schmoeman5]

17 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Twins got a more highly ranked prospect from the Dodgers' system and a capable 4th OF who hits right-handed and all people can talk about is "giving up on a first round pick" as if his draft position means he's more likely to turn it around in the batter's box.

Talk about getting attached to pure upside...

A capable 4th outfielder with bad knees who's backing up a cf who can't stay on the field. Mr Oriole. 😄 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Plus, we would have $11M to invest elsewhere.   

Add that to the $20M+ they already have to invest elsewhere but aren't investing elsewhere.

[Major League Ready]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Add that to the $20M+ they already have to invest elsewhere but aren't investing elsewhere.

Pretty hard to follow that logic when they did spend the $11M when they signed Sanatana and kept Farmer.  It's not a projection, it already happened, correct?

The fact that you ignored the far more impactful aspects of my post (Steer/CES/SGL/Povich) and interpreted the $11M in the worst possible light would suggest you were focus on finding something to complain about.  Do you or do you not think the team would have been better with Steer/CES and SGL and Povich as SP depth regardless even if they pocketed the $11M?  

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you or do you not think the team would have been better with Steer/CES and SGL and Povich as SP depth regardless even if they pocketed the $11M?  

I am ambivalent about Farmer vs. Steer. Both are competent backups. CES is a DH but could be a useful DH. The only reason that deal was bad was Tyler Mahle couldn't stay healthy. It could just as easily been a win for the Twins and Steer could have been the injured player. Mahle has talent or the Rangers wouldn't be paying him $20M to rehab.

I like that the Twins use veteran players to sit on the bench and want to develop young players by playing them every day. I like that they're willing to trade from the minor league depth to improve the major league team. The trades for Gray and Farmer were both good moves.

[stringer bell]

The prospect for prospect part of this trade is TBD. It appears that Doncon might not be a true SS, but the bat profiles better than Miller. 

Adding Margot again shows the commitment to depth that was a big factor in winning the Central in 2023. Having proven major league guys to fill in for injuries and ineffectiveness isn't sexy, but it was a key in the Twins' regular season success last year. 

The other factor that is clear in this off season is $$$$. The veterans the Twins have brought in on trades and free agent signings cost the Twins way less than market value. DeSclafani ($4M), Santana ($5.25M) and Margot ($4M) were added at discount prices (for the Twins). Calvin Griffith would be proud. 

It appears to me that Carlos Santana will be in the lineup on a very regular basis, with the primary DH being Alex Kirilloff. Castro, obviously, will get plenty of starts against right handers and I wouldn't be surprised if Margot gets more than a few starts against same sided hurlers. Against lefties, the obvious moves are Margot for Kepler/Wallner and Farmer for Julien. Perhaps a fair amount of Jeffers as DH if he continues to hit like he did in 2023.

Martin, Larnach and Miranda are pushed down a spot. We all know that injuries will occur and some guys won't produce as projected. These guys will get their chance, but I doubt it will be on Opening Day. 

So, if there are no injuries in the month that remains in Spring Training and no more roster transactions, the Twins would appear to be a bit stronger against LH pitching, and about a push vs. righties. Defense should be improved, rotation is less deep and not as strong, but a much deeper bullpen. I don't know if they are a better bet to repeat as Central champions, but with the weakened rotation, I am not too bullish on a playoff run. 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That is the nature of these trades.  It's short-term assets / production traded for long-term assets.  That's generally not a good asset management practice and historically, winning mid and small market teams are built on trading for prospects, not trading them away.  Just look at the Twins recent history.  They traded two rentals to teams that accomplished nothing for Duran and Ryan.  We traded for Mahle and Jorge Lopez who are not only gone but produced nothing.  We also acquired Fulmer at that deadline.  We gave away Cano who ended up being an all-star, 6 years each of Steer and CES who look to be very good MLB players, Sawyer Gibson-Long who did not look that great in Milb but was very good (2.70 ERA) in his initials MLB exposure.  Cade Poviich is also said to be looking ready to contribute for the Orioles.  We would be a considerably better team had the FO not invested in a team that simply was not a contender regardless of the fact they were in 1st place. 

Had they not bought at the 22 deadline.  Steer would replace farmer and CES replaces Sanatana.  Steer is a better bat and plays INF and OF.  CES has way more ceiling as a hitter.  Povich and SGL would be starting depth.  Plus, we would have $11M to invest elsewhere.   

Not great asset management for most small market teams, except when they start to get a nice collection of major league players and have surplus trade chips. Then they need to be used to plug holes and make the team better.

I'm not sure Steer and CES are anything more than depth on this roster anyway. If we truly intend to contend, the value of the veteran plug in player is significant. They have done an excellent job building depth throughout the system and the drafting of dozens of "shortstops" is not an accident. They are assets to be moved around.

Misty eyed listicles of where are they now prospects with a winning big club are bragging articles, not sad tomes like the old days.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If they were not comfortable with Martin yet, it was a pretty sure thing that they would not sign an OFer that could not cover CF.  It also made a lot of sense that they focused on splits against LH pitching.  Margot has better splits than anyone you mentioned.

This is their career OBP and wRC+.    MAT  310 / 99    Duvall  301 / 100     Margot   341 / 109.  

How about the last two years? I mean, at some point, guys drop off (or have lingering injuries). 

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Not great asset management for most small market teams, except when they start to get a nice collection of major league players and have surplus trade chips. Then they need to be used to plug holes and make the team better.

I'm not sure Steer and CES are anything more than depth on this roster anyway. If we truly intend to contend, the value of the veteran plug in player is significant. They have done an excellent job building depth throughout the system and the drafting of dozens of "shortstops" is not an accident. They are assets to be moved around.

Misty eyed listicles of where are they now prospects with a winning big club are bragging articles, not sad tomes like the old days.

I absolutely agree that it's great to have a surplus to trade but we traded away to invest in a team that proved to be unworthy of such investment.  

The national media loves Steer and some are very high on CVES.  MLB network listed Steer as the 10th best OFer in MLB. He would not start over Wallner in the OF against RHP.  He would play a Castro type role.  The two of them would offer tremendous flexibility.  Steer’s career OPS against LHP is .937 with a wRC+ of 148.  His combined OPS was .820 last year.  He is a far better player than Farmer for less money and another 5 years of control.  Farmer is a good fit.  Steer is a great fit and a better player.  We just see this one differently.  

CES is still unproven.  Again, I am listening to some of the national guys who think he is going to be a beast.  He started out pretty mediocre but he was raking the last six weeks (100 Abs) of the season.  His wRC+ was 155.  He ranked 21st in MLB right behind Bryce harper for that period.  I would much rather have that potential for the next 6 years even though he is still unproven.
 

[mickster]

18 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

To those decrying about Martin, Lanarch, and the loss of flexibility on the opening day 26 man: did the Twins suddenly invent some salve to stave off injuries for the entire year? We will see a lot of Martin this year, maybe a significant amount given our team's injury history.  Depth matters, as last year showed.   

I would love to see Martin and Larnach packaged for middle of rotation or higher starter

[Major League Ready]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How about the last two years? I mean, at some point, guys drop off (or have lingering injuries). 

You make a good point Mike.  IDK how much injury played a role in his performance the last couple years.  Perhaps they were convinced Margot is simply healthier than he has been.  We just don't know until we see for ourselves over the next couple months.  It's also always a bit of a guessing game with this type of player.   MAT was terrible offensively 2018-21, a little better in 2022 and then had a career year last year.  Duval was mediocre in 2021, bad in 2022 and then good last year.  I don't pretend to have any answers on Margot, just theories.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

You make a good point Mike.  IDK how much injury played a role in his performance the last couple years.  Perhaps they were convinced Margot is simply healthier than he has been.  We just don't know until we see for ourselves over the next couple months.  It's also always a bit of a guessing game with this type of player.   MAT was terrible 2018-21, a little better in 2022 and then had a career year last year.  Duval was mediocre in 2021, bad in 2022 and then good last year.  I don't pretend to have any answers on Margot, just theories.

Agreed. It's all projection at this point. I hope they are right.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I am ambivalent about Farmer vs. Steer. Both are competent backups. CES is a DH but could be a useful DH. The only reason that deal was bad was Tyler Mahle couldn't stay healthy. It could just as easily been a win for the Twins and Steer could have been the injured player. Mahle has talent or the Rangers wouldn't be paying him $20M to rehab.

I like that the Twins use veteran players to sit on the bench and want to develop young players by playing them every day. I like that they're willing to trade from the minor league depth to improve the major league team. The trades for Gray and Farmer were both good moves.

The deal wasn't bad based on Mahle's talent.  It was bad because they gave up substantial future value for present value when the team was unworthy of investment.   In other words, the investment had no value at substantial cost.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The deal wasn't bad based on Mahle's talent.  It was bad because they gave up substantial future value for present value when the team was unworthy of investment.   In other words, the investment had no value at substantial cost.

It would have been better to trade for a bat last year at the deadline, that team was more worthy.... No idea if one was available....

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The deal wasn't bad based on Mahle's talent.  It was bad because they gave up substantial future value for present value when the team was unworthy of investment.   In other words, the investment had no value at substantial cost.

They got Mahle for 2022 AND 2023. The 2023 team won a playoff series. Who knows if they beat Houston with a healthy Mahle available.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It would have been better to trade for a bat last year at the deadline, that team was more worthy.... No idea if one was available....

Agree.  This year's team might be even more worthy but the cost will be high because their hole is probably going to be a playoff level starter.  Similar situation to Texas last year.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They got Mahle for 2022 AND 2023. The 2023 team won a playoff series. Who knows if they beat Houston with a healthy Mahle available.

That's a stretch but even if it has merit, it would have made more sense to make a similar trade last year at the deadline.  I doubt they would have put that kind of value in a Mahle type SP but at least we would have filled the biggest hole on this year's team instead of investing in a mediocre team that was injury depleted.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I really liked Miller and was disappointed to see him included in this trade.  That said, I do like the trade as I agree with others that the prospect returned is basically an even, although different skillset, match making Margot basically a free resource other than the 4mm that we will pay for his services.

As far as blocking Martin, I also really like Martin and feel he deserves a chance, but not by sitting on the bench in a rotational or backup player role at this point in his career.  He will develop much better playing daily in STP and be more ready when called upon.

I also like the depth that this deal provides.  The FO learned a few years back with our lack of OF depth (e.g. Cave, Garlick, Celestino, etc.) and have properly accounted for that issue last year and with the roster construction so far this year.

The only thing I ask of Twins management is to not let vets negatively impact the ML team for all season like was done with Gallo last year.  If it is clear that the vet is faltering and a young replacement in STP is raking, don't hesitate to make the move to bring up the young replacement.  I feel that not doing that last year cost the MLB team wins.

They literally lost 4 starting OFers the year you are referencing they still don't have that much depth, no one does.

As for your last paragraph, they also do that with the bullpen. There is no evidence this FO will move on from a mediocre veteran w/o an injury. None. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am ambivalent about Farmer vs. Steer. Both are competent backups. CES is a DH but could be a useful DH. The only reason that deal was bad was Tyler Mahle couldn't stay healthy. It could just as easily been a win for the Twins and Steer could have been the injured player. Mahle has talent or the Rangers wouldn't be paying him $20M to rehab.

I like that the Twins use veteran players to sit on the bench and want to develop young players by playing them every day. I like that they're willing to trade from the minor league depth to improve the major league team. The trades for Gray and Farmer were both good moves.

Mahle has really made bank recently getting paid by multiple teams to rehab.  

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I really liked Miller and was disappointed to see him included in this trade.  That said, I do like the trade as I agree with others that the prospect returned is basically an even, although different skillset, match making Margot basically a free resource other than the 4mm that we will pay for his services.

As far as blocking Martin, I also really like Martin and feel he deserves a chance, but not by sitting on the bench in a rotational or backup player role at this point in his career.  He will develop much better playing daily in STP and be more ready when called upon.

I also like the depth that this deal provides.  The FO learned a few years back with our lack of OF depth (e.g. Cave, Garlick, Celestino, etc.) and have properly accounted for that issue last year and with the roster construction so far this year.

The only thing I ask of Twins management is to not let vets negatively impact the ML team for all season like was done with Gallo last year.  If it is clear that the vet is faltering and a young replacement in STP is raking, don't hesitate to make the move to bring up the young replacement.  I feel that not doing that last year cost the MLB team wins.

I really hope last years Gallo situation doesnt reappear with DeScalf this year.