2024 Minnesota Twins Positional Battles: The 5th Starter

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins starting rotation was among the best in baseball last year. They are looking to replicate that reality despite losing 40% of the production. Who steps up remains to be seen, but there are a handful of internal options.

A year ago the Twins saw Rocco Baldelli use his starters more than virtually all of Major League Baseball. The short starts comments became laughable as Minnesota possessed high-level talent, and pitchers were implored to go deep in games. Now with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda having departed for greener pastures, the group will need to re-establish itself behind Cy Young candidate Pablo Lopez.

It should be all but guaranteed that Lopez will be joined in the rotation by Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack. Those are the holdovers from 2023, and with Paddack now fully healthy, he is expected to show why the Twins targeted him a couple of years ago in the Taylor Rogers trade. What happens in the fifth spot remains to be seen, and there are a couple of scenarios that could play out.

The Starter: Anthony DeSclafani
It’s probably fair to suggest that Minnesota made the Jorge Polanco deal with Seattle in an effort to acquire Justin Topa and Gabriel Gonzalez. Getting a solid reliever continues to prop up what could be baseball’s best bullpen, and Gonzalez adds a fringe-top 100 player to the farm system. Still, needing a starter to help round out the rotation, adding DeSclafani at a significantly reduced rate has value.

Minnesota isn’t substantially invested in the former Giants starter as they are paying him just $4 million for 2024. That said, the hope would be that he can find some of the success that stood out for him in 2021. During his first season with the Giants, DeSclafani posted a 3.17 ERA with a 3.62 FIP, and tallied 152 strikeouts across 167 2/3 innings. The past two seasons combined have seen DeSclafani pitch just 118 2/3 innings as he has battled different injury issues. Effectiveness is half of the battle for the favorite to land Minnesota’s fifth spot, but availability is a must as well.

If he makes it through spring training, then there’s almost no scenario in which he doesn’t break camp in the rotation. How long of a leash he has remains to be seen, but giving him the first shot seems to be little more than a formality.

The Backups: Louie Varland, Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, Simeon Woods Richardson
Minnesota brought in 19 non-roster invitees for spring training, but just two of them are starting pitchers. On the 40-man roster, the trio of Varland, Headrick, and Woods Richardson are the candidates to consider. When it comes to ideal options, the Twins are probably waiting on someone to emerge more than they are banking on an arm to take DeSclafani’s spot.

Varland would be the most logical candidate to step in should there be an injury, and that’s why he doesn’t look to be a real bullpen candidate. The Twins want to keep him stretched out to start, and while his stuff does play up in the bullpen, the greater need right now is in the rotation. He hasn't put it all together when in the rotation, and avoiding the longball would help him substantially. Still, there's a path for him to remain a starter and if he can elevate to a third or fourth option, that would be a great comeup.

Beyond Varland it’s a trio of guys that have shown differing degrees of success. Dobnak is still being paid on a major league contract, and while the numbers weren’t great in 2023, he had periods of very strong performance. Another year removed from the finger injury could have him vaulting back into a position of relevance, and that would be a good depth option. Headrick didn’t start for Minnesota last year, but has on the farm. How he is used remains to be seen. Woods Richardson wasn’t great as a whole last year, but posted a 3.03 ERA with a .635 OPS against across his final 71 1/3 at Triple-A last year. If he continue down that path, this may be the year he sees some real run at the big league level.

Waiting in the Wings: David Festa, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis
If some of the veteran options have muted ceilings, the opposite could be said for the prospects ready to make an impact. Whether it is Festa or Raya that is perceived to be the better of the pair, both could push to be a top-half arm in the rotation. Festa is already at Triple-A St. Paul and should be among the first people leaned upon when the big league club needs help. He pitched in the Futures Game last year, and looks very close to a finished product.

Raya has been handled with kid gloves for the majority of his pro career thus far, and while injuries have necessitated that, allowing him to fly this year could vault him substantially. It remains unlikely that he pitches in the majors, but starting at Double-A, he’s at least within sniffing distance.

Even further away than Raya is Lewis, but quickly climbing the prospect charts and likely to start at Double-A, Lewis could find himself with a chance. He is a college arm and already built to more than 100 innings last season. The stuff is exciting and he has a repertoire that is both unique and works. Like Raya, it remains unlikely we see him for the Twins, but putting a cap on his rise doesn’t seem necessary either.

DeSclafani as the Twins fifth starter seems to leave the door open for others. Who do you think is most expected to step up, and who would be your dark horse to get big league innings in the rotation?

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[IndianaTwin]

If Lewis is on the list, should Canterino be as well? He’s on the 40-man, whereas Festa, Raya and Lewis are not.

[LewFordLives]

Someone will get their chance. There will be injuries and uneven performance. I still think Varland ends up as a really good reliever, but he's shown he can start 

[Eephus]

DeSclafani having sustained effectiveness seems like a long shot, but definitely worth a look. If he's 100% healthy and moderately effective, he'll get the nod. Then it seems at least 1 of the 5 starters will have some kinda health issue and that's when Varland will get his chance. Varland seems hellbent on being a starter. He's got some Sonny Gray bulldog in him. Hope they give him a real shot. I always figure they know more than I do considering I'm not even sure who's in the picture at the beginning of the article. 

Just curious...why does TD include photo credits but often/usually not say who is in the photo?

[jimbo92107]

21 minutes ago, Eephus said:

Just curious...why does TD include photo credits but often/usually not say who is in the photo?

Been wondering the same thing for a while. Captions can be the most eagerly read thing in an article, if you use them right. Usually a reader expects to see 1) who's in the photo, 2) what are they doing, 3) where they are, and then 4) who shot the photo.

Leaving the 3 most important details out of a caption feels a little irritating. Are we really supposed to guess all that?

For example, the photo at top would read: "Willie Mays shows off his unique forkball at Fort Meyers. Photo: USA Today."

That's who that was, right?

 

[arby58]

I tend to agree with Varland as the next in line, which is why I think he starts the year in St. Paul (ala Ober last year). One minor quibble with the story - rather than losing 40 percent of their rotation from last year, they really lost about one-third, because Maeda was injured for part of the year - hence starts by Keuchel and Varland.

[Nashvilletwin]

DeSclafani breaks camp as #5.

In order, Varland, SWR and Dobnak get first crack at needed starts before May 1 or so (all have MLB experience) with Varland the clear first choice unless his performance is suffering.

As the season progresses, Canterino, Headrick, and Festa could be added to the available to start list with the above three - the hot hand could get the nod.

Lewis and Raya are longer shots to start unless their performance truly merits a call up.

Around the deadline, an additional starter could be added if we are still contending and/or could be expected to make a real run for the pennant,

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

They won’t at all need a 5th starter for the first couple of weeks, with all the off days. So how the opening day roster looks will certainly be different by 4/11 or so. Still think they can add to the rotation too 

[Fatbat]

We have plenty of options to be mostly mediocre at the #5 SP. plenty of possibilities that some young guy will step up and be much better than mediocre. 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

DeSclafani breaks camp as #5.

In order, Varland, SWR and Dobnak get first crack at needed starts before May 1 or so (all have MLB experience) with Varland the clear first choice unless his performance is suffering.

I was with you until you said Dobnak. I think they would go to Canterino and/or Headrick (already on the 40 man roster) or Festa (need to add him to the 40 man soon anyway) before they go back to Randy Dobnak. I see Dobnak last on the Triple-A depth chart and only ahead of the Double-A pitchers. That puts him 11th on the overall depth chart.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Eephus said:

...Just curious...why does TD include photo credits but often/usually not say who is in the photo?

 

33 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Been wondering the same thing for a while. Captions can be the most eagerly read thing in an article, if you use them right. Usually a reader expects to see 1) who's in the photo, 2) what are they doing, 3) where they are, and then 4) who shot the photo.

Leaving the 3 most important details out of a caption feels a little irritating. Are we really supposed to guess all that?

For example, the photo at top would read: "Willie Mays shows off his unique forkball at Fort Meyers. Photo: USA Today."

That's who that was, right?

 

Yes, to the request for captions. 

And if that's Mays, it has to be from early in his career. Later, he used a Wilson. 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I was with you until you said Dobnak. I think they would go to Canterino and/or Headrick (already on the 40 man roster) or Festa (need to add him to the 40 man soon anyway) before they go back to Randy Dobnak. I see Dobnak last on the Triple-A depth chart and only ahead of the Double-A pitchers. That puts him 11th on the overall depth chart.

Only until about May 1 or so - so basically Dobnak is #3 (behind Varland and SWR) on the list for about the first month.  The others probably need a bit more time to get acclimated, etc. - but then I agree with you re Dobnak’s place in the theoretical hierarchy subject to performance. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Only until about May 1 or so - so basically Dobnak is #3 (behind Varland and SWR) on the list for about the first month.  The others probably need a bit more time to get acclimated, etc. - but then I agree with you re Dobnak’s place in the theoretical hierarchy subject to performance. 

Headrick pitched more in the big leagues than Dobnak did in 2023. He's on the roster and already ahead of him on the depth chart.

[IndianaTwin]

28 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They won’t at all need a 5th starter for the first couple of weeks, with all the off days. So how the opening day roster looks will certainly be different by 4/11 or so. Still think they can add to the rotation too 

Even though they could get by without a 5th starter, the Twins haven't typically skipped that spot when they've had that opportunity in the past. Assuming health, they aren't going to/can't option Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and DeSclafini, so there's no reason to skip one.

If someone is hurt, they might consider doing that with Varland, carrying an extra reliever for a time. They would need Varland by the LA April 8-10 series. Even so, I'm guessing they won't do that, since that would mean jumping guys immediately into pitching on four days rest heading into a stretch with just one off day between April 6 and May 1. I think they will look to the off days in the first nine days of the schedule to make sure that guys are well rested heading into that longer stretch,  

 

In a bit of an anomaly, with the two-game series in Milwaukee, Lopez would likely get both the Opening Day start and the home opener. Usually that's two different guys.  

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They won’t at all need a 5th starter for the first couple of weeks, with all the off days. So how the opening day roster looks will certainly be different by 4/11 or so. Still think they can add to the rotation too 

They had some off days early last year and still ran their normal 5 man rotation to start the year. I think they use it as a natural way to give a little extra rest to arms early, so I don't expect them to skip their #5 starter early.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Even though they could get by without a 5th starter, the Twins haven't typically skipped that spot when they've had that opportunity in the past. Assuming health, they aren't going to/can't option Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and DeSclafini, so there's no reason to skip one.

If someone is hurt, they might consider doing that with Varland, carrying an extra reliever for a time. They would need Varland by the LA April 8-10 series. Even so, I'm guessing they won't do that, since that would mean jumping guys immediately into pitching on four days rest heading into a stretch with just one off day between April 6 and May 1. I think they will look to the off days in the first nine days of the schedule to make sure that guys are well rested heading into that longer stretch,  

 

In a bit of an anomaly, with the two-game series in Milwaukee, Lopez would likely get both the Opening Day start and the home opener. Usually that's two different guys.  

I agree, but I'm more saying that they could go with just, say, Lopez/Ryan/Ober/DeScalfani through the first 2 weeks or so of the year, while also carrying Paddack (as an example) and then have Varland come up after that point. 

Just a thought.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They had some off days early last year and still ran their normal 5 man rotation to start the year. I think they use it as a natural way to give a little extra rest to arms early, so I don't expect them to skip their #5 starter early.

agreed and if Paddack is on a inning count, wouldn't it best to spread out his first starts while he gets built up?

[IndianaTwin]

16 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

agreed and if Paddack is on a inning count, wouldn't it best to spread out his first starts while he gets built up?

Plus you can control his workload much better as a starter than by trying to squeeze in a bullpen outing or two. 

I'd also consider slotting Paddack in at No. 2 in the rotation. Pitching the day after Lopez is the best likelihood of pitching with a rested bullpen. 

[terrydactyls]

48 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

Yes, to the request for captions. 

And if that's Mays, it has to be from early in his career. Later, he used a Wilson. 

I've been asking this question for the last three years.  I've never gotten a response. ☹️

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Dobnak's career arch has just been insane. Uber driving to starting a playoff game at Yankee stadium and earning a contract extension to a finger injury and being stuck in the minors.

[jorgenswest]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They had some off days early last year and still ran their normal 5 man rotation to start the year. I think they use it as a natural way to give a little extra rest to arms early, so I don't expect them to skip their #5 starter early.

They had two off days in April. They played more games in April than any other month.

They did have a stretch mid August where they could have skipped the fifth starter a few times but chose to give extra days of rest. Rest may have been helpful then.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They won’t at all need a 5th starter for the first couple of weeks, with all the off days. So how the opening day roster looks will certainly be different by 4/11 or so. Still think they can add to the rotation too 

The Twins almost never skip starters unless there is a current health issue. 

[jimbo92107]

I wonder if Louie Varland, whose pitching motion reminds some of Max Scherzer, has been watching videos of how Max throws his pitches. I wouldn't mind that a bit...

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They had two off days in April. They played more games in April than any other month.

They did have a stretch mid August where they could have skipped the fifth starter a few times but chose to give extra days of rest. Rest may have been helpful then.

Twins have basically the same schedule this year. They just aren't really into skipping starters. They're all about rest and recovery for their entire roster. Just don't ever see them skipping starts until late in the season when it comes to lining up postseason rotation.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

I wonder if Louie Varland, whose pitching motion reminds some of Max Scherzer, has been watching videos of how Max throws his pitches. I wouldn't mind that a bit...

Interesting. We read numerous comments over time that point to Cleveland's pitcher development program and you mention Max Scherzer. A pitcher needs to get the ball to show what they can do. Scherzer had two years of ERAs above 4.00 in his first three seasons with the Tigers after he was traded to Detroit, and before he went on his long run of excellence. Tanner Bibee was just put in the rotation by Francona and kept there last season. There is some disagreement about how effective Ryan, Ober, and Paddack  will be, but they will get the ball this season. What about Varland? 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Headrick pitched more in the big leagues than Dobnak did in 2023. He's on the roster and already ahead of him on the depth chart.

25 innings all in relief. 6.31 ERA. Headrick is hardly banging down the door as our “next up” starter over the first month of the season.  Dobnak was hurt last season.  Regardless, if either even makes the list it will come down to performance.  

[IndyTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I agree, but I'm more saying that they could go with just, say, Lopez/Ryan/Ober/DeScalfani through the first 2 weeks or so of the year, while also carrying Paddack (as an example) and then have Varland come up after that point. 

Just a thought.

I think there is some validity to this point, especially if they're interested in limiting Paddack's innings early in the season, which I believe to be a distinct possibility. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

agreed and if Paddack is on a inning count, wouldn't it best to spread out his first starts while he gets built up?

My thoughts exactly!

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Dobnak was hurt last season. 

He was mostly just bad. He started 26 games. The only reason he's still in the organization is the contract. The only reason we might see him pitch is the Twins can add him to the roster and then immediately cut him again knowing that nobody will pick up his contract on waivers. He's a more expensive version of Aaron Sanchez.

The best use of Randy Dobnak would be as part of a trade to a team currently paying the luxury tax. Dobnak would balance out the contract of the veteran player acquired by the Twins and the other org wouldn't have to pay luxury tax on Dobnak's wages because he's off the 40 man roster.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They won’t at all need a 5th starter for the first couple of weeks, with all the off days. So how the opening day roster looks will certainly be different by 4/11 or so. Still think they can add to the rotation too 

At least last year, that wasn't the way the Twins rolled - they went 1,2,3,4,5 starters throughout the early part of the season rather than skipping the number 5 starter. I suspect the thought process (besides being comfortable with all 5) was that it would provide an extra day of rest here and there for the 1-4 starters, which would help them stay fresh for later in the season. Of course, it helped that they had Varland and Ober available when Mahle and Maeda weren't available.