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A year ago the Twins saw Rocco Baldelli use his starters more than virtually any other manager in Major League Baseball. The short starts comments became laughable, as Minnesota possessed high-level talent, and pitchers were implored to go deep in games. Now, with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda having departed for greener contracts, the group will need to re-establish itself behind Cy Young candidate Pablo López.
López will be joined in the rotation by Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack. Those are the holdovers from 2023, and with Paddack now fully healthy, he is expected to show why the Twins targeted him a couple of years ago in the Taylor Rogers trade. What happens in the fifth spot remains to be seen, and there are a couple of scenarios that could play out.
The Frontrunner: Anthony DeSclafani
The Twins made the Jorge Polanco deal with Seattle mostly to acquire Justin Topa and Gabriel González. Getting a solid reliever continues to prop up what could be baseball’s best bullpen, and González adds a fringe top-100 player to the farm system. Still, since they also needed a starter to round out the rotation, adding DeSclafani at a significantly reduced rate has value.
Minnesota isn’t substantially invested in the former Giants starter; they're paying him just $4 million for 2024. That said, the hope would be that he can reprise the successful season he had in 2021. During his first season with the Giants, DeSclafani posted a 3.17 ERA with a 3.62 FIP, and tallied 152 strikeouts across 167 2/3 innings. The past two seasons combined have seen DeSclafani pitch just 118 2/3 innings, as he has battled injury issues. Effectiveness is half of the battle for the favorite to land Minnesota’s fifth spot, but availability is a must as well.
If he makes it through spring training, then there’s almost no scenario in which he doesn’t break camp in the rotation. How long of a leash he has remains to be seen, but giving him the first shot seems to be little more than a formality.
The Challengers: Louie Varland, Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, Simeon Woods Richardson
Minnesota brought in 19 non-roster invitees for spring training, but just two of them are starting pitchers. On the 40-man roster, the trio of Varland, Headrick, and Woods Richardson are the candidates to consider. The Twins are probably waiting on someone to emerge, but they're not banking on any of them.
Varland would be the most logical candidate to step in should there be an injury, and that’s why he doesn’t look to be a real bullpen candidate right now. The Twins want to keep him stretched out to start, and while his stuff does play up in the bullpen, the greater need right now is in the rotation. He hasn't put it all together as a starter; he's been especially vulnerable to the long ball. Still, there's a path for him to remain a starter, and if he can elevate to a third or fourth option, that would be a great outcome.
Beyond Varland, it’s a trio of guys who have had varying degrees of success. Dobnak is still being paid on a major-league contract, and while the numbers weren’t great in 2023, he had periods of very strong performance. Another year removed from the finger injury could have him vaulting back into a position of relevance, and that would be a good depth option. Headrick didn’t start for Minnesota last year, but has done so on the farm. How he is used remains to be seen. Woods Richardson wasn’t great as a whole last year, but posted a 3.03 ERA with a .635 OPS against across his final 71 1/3 innings at Triple A. If he continues down that path, this may be the year he sees some real run at the big-league level.
Waiting in the Wings: David Festa, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis
If some of the veteran options have muted ceilings, the opposite could be said for the prospects ready to make an impact. Whether it is Festa or Raya that is perceived to be the better of the pair, both could push to be a frontline arm in the rotation. Festa is already at Triple-A St. Paul and should be among the first people leaned upon when the big league club needs help. He pitched in the Futures Game last year, and looks very close to a finished product.
Raya has been handled with kid gloves for the majority of his pro career thus far, and while injuries have necessitated that, allowing him to fly this year could vault him substantially. It remains unlikely that he pitches in the majors, but starting at Double-A, he’s at least within sniffing distance.
Even further away than Raya is Lewis, but after quickly climbing the prospect charts and looking likely to start at Double-A, Lewis could find himself with a chance. He is a college arm and already built to more than 100 innings last season. The stuff is exciting and he has a unique repertoire. Like Raya, it remains unlikely we see him for the Twins in 2024, but putting a cap on his rise doesn’t seem necessary, either.
DeSclafani as the Twins' fifth starter seems to leave the door open for others. Who do you think is most expected to step up, and who would be your dark horse to get big league innings in the rotation?
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