No Surprise: Twins Exercise Options for Kepler and Polanco

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, ashbury said:

Max has always sported a low BA on balls in play.  It's been a reason people have speculated he would soon break out, for years now, since it's unusual for someone with major league skills to have BABIP like .250 when the league generally is up around .300.  Now, all of a sudden starting in July and continuing in each month through the rest of the season, his BABIP is up to league average, even a little above, and his good OPS in those months is a reflection of it.  Did coach Popkins notice something that unlocked a part of his hidden potential?  Is there some other explanation?  Will he revert?

A right fielder with a good glove and his second half numbers is quite valuable.  If his poor post-season numbers are an indication of regression to the old Max, then it may be wise to "sell high" as the saying goes.

Good questions.  With the Twins depth and youngsters, I feel like they should sell high.  I really like Max, but from a business perspective, I think moving to the young guys and investing the saved salary in a free agent starter is their best move.  And I say the same thing for Polanco.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Brett said:

Curious to spend $20M on 2 solid regulars with so many cheaper options lined up behind them in light of the lack of clarity on TV revenue. 
If we swing a TV deal, do we keep them? How large of a factor is external revenue?

Sign these two, offer arbitration to everyone in that situation, and bring ‘‘em all to Fort Myers. Hopefully there will be some financial clarity in 3 months.

Roster payroll is not an issue right now. The Twins can easily cut 10% from their last season's payroll and still fit everyone. 

Now, many folks have suggested adding a high priced free agent starting pitcher or re-signing Sonny Gray. I would like that too. However, the Twins have not previously been players in that market. If they are it means that they will keep or exceed the payroll numbers from last year. 

So, currently there is really zero concern with payroll.

[gman]

If you watch Kepler hit over the years, you notice that he frequently dropped his back shoulder and bent his knees a lot more to apparently get under baseballs and drive them over the high right field wall. Unfortunately that never worked out for him too well and frequently resulted in grounders to second. The second half of last year and starting earlier in the year, but not much earlier, he stopped dropping his shoulder and settled for hitting loud line drives off the wall. He also managed to hit the ball over the left field fence, which he has never done with any regularity.

Maybe seeing Lewis, just being a hitter, instead of a home run slugger and the players meeting where they discussed being hitters instead of sluggers, helped him more than any other Twin.

Question is, will he keep it up going forward?

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I think moving to the young guys and investing the saved salary in a free agent starter is their best move.  And I say the same thing for Polanco.

Not that I necessarily disagree with the idea, but what makes you believe that the Twins will be signing a noteworthy free agent starter? Does the reduced experience and depth weaken the team?

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, gman said:

If you watch Kepler hit over the years, you notice that he frequently dropped his back shoulder and bent his knees a lot more to apparently get under baseballs and drive them over the high right field wall. Unfortunately that never worked out for him too well and frequently resulted in grounders to second. The second half of last year and starting earlier in the year, but not much earlier, he stopped dropping his shoulder and settled for hitting loud line drives off the wall. He also managed to hit the ball over the left field fence, which he has never done with any regularity.

Maybe seeing Lewis, just being a hitter, instead of a home run slugger and the players meeting where they discussed being hitters instead of sluggers, helped him more than any other Twin.

Question is, will he keep it up going forward?

Along with that .... is Kepler younger athletically than one might think? Who would replace Kepler?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As many have indicated, these were obvious and necessary pickups.  On the surface, Polanco is much more consistent but has grown more injury prone, while Kepler is less injury prone but much more likely to be either “good Max” or “bad Max”.   With just those considerations, I would rather have Polanco than Kepler on my team, taking consistency over feast/famine.   However, at the moment, we are much more likely to be successful replacing Polanco on the roster than Kepler.  We just have a ton more infielders with flexibility than we do guys who profile as a solid corner outfielder.  I’m feeling pretty good about Wallner, but beyond that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot.  

I am in agreement with those who say to keep Farmer (less $$/similar role moving forward) and trade Polanco.  It removes a salary and I think he actually would have better trade value (I haven’t consulted BBTV, but they can be a little random.). Spend that (and more) on resigning Gray or a similar pitcher and make sure that the return for Polo (and others, too many guys for the 40 man roster) is either a quality starting pitcher or a big bopper to put in LF, thus making Kepler expendable also.

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They are not really relying on Milb players.  Polanco would be a role player.  Julien is the primary 2B, Lewis 3B and Correa at SS.  Then, they have two proven back-ups in Farmer and Castro.  I am not sure how to categorize Miranda but he could play into this as well....

I think you categorize Miranda as a 1B/DH. I don't see him playing much, if any, 3B, with all the options ahead of him defensively. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Good questions.  With the Twins depth and youngsters, I feel like they should sell high.  I really like Max, but from a business perspective, I think moving to the young guys and investing the saved salary in a free agent starter is their best move.  And I say the same thing for Polanco.

what depth are you talking about in the outfield? Larnach and Wallner??

I like the idea of moving on from Kepler, but IMO that mean bringing in a FA OF to replace him. I see no chance a team coming off a playoff series win is going with Larnach, Wallner and ? (I think we have to assume Buxton will be limited at least to the start the year) starting in the outfield with Castro, Martin, Keirsey as the back ups.

I think one of Wallner or Larnach will start in LF, the other being depth. IMO the Twins did themselves a disservice having Contreras, Stevenson and Garlick getting most of the action in the AAA outfield last year.

[Mike Sixel]

Farmer is also a much better defender than Polanco. I likely deal Polanco, but I think they don't. 

[RpR]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I think you are overlooking a couple things.  For starters, Julien has already replaced Polanco.  Polanco is a role player now and the Twins play match-ups.

🫥 Not even close.

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, RpR said:

🫥 Not even close.

I don't know how it's even debatable.  Julien was starting at 2B instead of Polanco and Polanco also was a back-up to Lewis.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't know how it's even debatable.  Julien was starting at 2B instead of Polanco and Polanco also was a back-up to Lewis.

They were dhing Julien and having Polanco play second whenever possible. When Royce got hurt Polo played third because he was their only choice. Polo is significantly better in the field at second than any other options especially Julien. I like Julien but as a dh. 

[minman1982]

Kepler and Polanco are both slightly better than average major league hitters and solid defensive contributors. Neither of these guys is ever going to compete for an MVP but both a decent players and the cost to keep both is reasonable. The question is, who replaces them if they are traded?

Of the two, I would think Polanco is a little more likely to get traded simply because I feel the Twins have more options in the infield. The outfield is a little thin and the Twins probably already need an every day CF since Buxton isn't going to play there every day for a whole season.

[DocBauer]

IMO, Kepler is a lock for 2024 as the Twins are banking on his improvement last year. And to be clear, his change in whatever he did, wasn't a couple of weeks. And it wasn't a month. It was from pretty much June onward. That's not just a SSS. And there isn't some easy, ready replacement for him if they move on. If we accept, for a moment, that his change in approach is not going away, who do you get to replace what he did from approximately June on? If his $10M is gone, what FA is signed who's better and at what financial cost? And if we're talking trade, I'd think a corner OF spot has to come after a rotation addition, as well as figuring out CF insurance/depth.

I'll be shocked if Kepler isn't in RF for 2024.

A healthy Polanco is a solid 2B with a career .780 OPS. He's very good. And he has the ability to also play some 3B, SS, and I believe some 1B going forward, actually increasing his roster contributions and said flexibility. The fact that Julien has shown improvement at 2B, can also play 1B, and that Lee will PROBABLY be as good as Polanco offensively, if not better, DOESN'T diminish just how good Polanco is. 

I don't want to move Polanco. I want him for 2024, at least, because he's a damn fine ballplayer and producer and I'd rather have the "burden" of trying to fit "too many" talented INF's  on a 26 man roster and in the lineup than not. But I do think there's a good chance it's time to, maybe, move on come 2025. BUT, it's also possible the time to move on is NOW. I can see Polanco moved this offseason with someone else, to bring back an arm. I keep thinking he and Larnach, for example, to Seattle for an arm, could be similar to the Lopez trade last year.

From the Twins perspective, you play the improved Julien at 2B, work in the kept Farmer, and wait for Lee to be ready.

Just saying, I love Polanco and don't want to lose him, but I can see a trade path that makes sense.

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A healthy Polanco is a solid 2B with a career .780 OPS. He's very good. And he has the ability to also play some 3B, SS, and I believe some 1B going forward, actually increasing his roster contributions and said flexibility. The fact that Julien has shown improvement at 2B, can also play 1B, and that Lee will PROBABLY be as good as Polanco offensively, if not better, DOESN'T diminish just how good Polanco is. 

I would dispute that Polanco can play shortstop at all at this point in his career. He played zero innings last year and he was absolutely dreadful at third base in his 103 innings at the hot corner. I commend Polanco for playing third base last year, but the experiment was not a success. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

IMO, Kepler is a lock for 2024 as the Twins are banking on his improvement last year. And to be clear, his change in whatever he did, wasn't a couple of weeks. And it wasn't a month. It was from pretty much June onward. That's not just a SSS. And there isn't some easy, ready replacement for him if they move on. If we accept, for a moment, that his change in approach is not going away, who do you get to replace what he did from approximately June on? If his $10M is gone, what FA is signed who's better and at what financial cost? And if we're talking trade, I'd think a corner OF spot has to come after a rotation addition, as well as figuring out CF insurance/depth.

I'll be shocked if Kepler isn't in RF for 2024.

A healthy Polanco is a solid 2B with a career .780 OPS. He's very good. And he has the ability to also play some 3B, SS, and I believe some 1B going forward, actually increasing his roster contributions and said flexibility. The fact that Julien has shown improvement at 2B, can also play 1B, and that Lee will PROBABLY be as good as Polanco offensively, if not better, DOESN'T diminish just how good Polanco is. 

I don't want to move Polanco. I want him for 2024, at least, because he's a damn fine ballplayer and producer and I'd rather have the "burden" of trying to fit "too many" talented INF's  on a 26 man roster and in the lineup than not. But I do think there's a good chance it's time to, maybe, move on come 2025. BUT, it's also possible the time to move on is NOW. I can see Polanco moved this offseason with someone else, to bring back an arm. I keep thinking he and Larnach, for example, to Seattle for an arm, could be similar to the Lopez trade last year.

From the Twins perspective, you play the improved Julien at 2B, work in the kept Farmer, and wait for Lee to be ready.

Just saying, I love Polanco and don't want to lose him, but I can see a trade path that makes sense.

Totally with you on Kepler Doc.  

Let me pose two questions where Polanco is concerned.  Under what scenario would we rather have Polanco over the alternatives we have presently?   Over Lewis at 3B.  Not even close, right?  SS?  Of course not.  Leaves us with 2B.  Julien’s career OPS is 95 pts higher than Polanco.  Farmer’s OPS is the exact same 95pts higher against LHP?  So, is it fair to say we have better alternatives under every scenario?

Obviously, depth is good but is the team better with Polanco or the $10M surplus used to sign pitching or even a RH bat in the OF?  We still have not considered the return for Polanco.  This is how the Rays and Guardians have stayed good.

I think the probability Polanco is here on opening day is low and even lower at the deadline.
 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Let me pose two questions where Polanco is concerned.  Under what scenario would we rather have Polanco over the alternatives we have presently?   Over Lewis at 3B.  Not even close, right?  SS?  Of course not.  Leaves us with 2B.  Julien’s career OPS is 95 pts higher than Polanco.  Farmer’s OPS is the exact same 95pts higher against LHP?  So, is it fair to say we have better alternatives under every scenario?

With all due respect it's not fair to say. 

Polanco's career OPS vs RHP is .146 higher than Farmers. 70% of pitching is coming at ya from the right side. 

Last Year -- Farmer had 222 AB's vs Right Handed pitchers 

and Farmer had 114 AB's vs Lefties 

Polanco actually out performed Farmer vs. Lefties last year: 

BA:

Polanco .310

Farmer .289

HR

Polanco 4 Home Runs in 87 AB's.

Farmer 2 Home Runs in 114 AB's 

OPS

Polanco .824

Farmer .729

Over his career Farmer has 1294 PA's vs Right Handers and 551 PA's vs Left Handers.  

Farmer is going to face twice as many RHP than LHP.  

Financially... This isn't 10.5 Million Dollars vs. the minimum. It's 10.5 vs 6.5. If you are spending 6.5 million... don't spend it on a short side platoon specialist... Take the better player. If the reason to move Polanco is financial to free up money... OK... but Farmer should go to. Free up 17 million. 

Neither player has the trade value to acquire what we really need by themselves. 

Polanco is the better player and younger and comes with yet another club option. Whoever you choose for your roster... that chosen player is going to play... take the better player. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

With all due respect it's not fair to say. 

Polanco's career OPS vs RHP is .146 higher than Farmers. 70% of pitching is coming at ya from the right side. 

Last Year -- Farmer had 222 AB's vs Right Handed pitchers 

and Farmer had 114 AB's vs Lefties 

Polanco actually out performed Farmer vs. Lefties last year: 

BA:

Polanco .310

Farmer .289

HR

Polanco 4 Home Runs in 87 AB's.

Farmer 2 Home Runs in 114 AB's 

OPS

Polanco .824

Farmer .729

Over his career Farmer has 1294 PA's vs Right Handers and 551 PA's vs Left Handers.  

Farmer is going to face twice as many RHP than LHP.  

Financially... This isn't 10.5 Million Dollars vs. the minimum. It's 10.5 vs 6.5. If you are spending 6.5 million... don't spend it on a short side platoon specialist... Take the better player. If the reason to move Polanco is financial to free up money... OK... but Farmer should go to. Free up 17 million. 

Neither player has the trade value to acquire what we really need by themselves. 

Polanco is the better player and younger and comes with yet another club option. Whoever you choose for your roster... that chosen player is going to play... take the better player. 

We just have to agree to disagree.  Polanco did not outperform Farmer against LHP as I see it.  Farmer's OPS against LHP was .781 and Polanco .775.  Farmer's wRC+ 117 and Polanco 115.    Farmer is also a much more versatile defender which is a crucial element of this role.  

You also completely dismiss the salary difference and return on Polanco.  I will take Julien and Farmer's versatility on this specific roster plus a decent return on Polanco and never look back.  We will find out what the front office thinks over the winter. 

[wabene]

I think it does make sense to move Polo. I don't enjoy typing that and would miss him. How would Max hold up without his buddy? 

[Jeff K]

On 11/3/2023 at 11:57 AM, tony&rodney said:

Not that I necessarily disagree with the idea, but what makes you believe that the Twins will be signing a noteworthy free agent starter? Does the reduced experience and depth weaken the team?

Every move is a gamble.  It definitely reduces the experience.  It's a tough decision, but that's how I would roll it.

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

what depth are you talking about in the outfield? Larnach and Wallner??

I like the idea of moving on from Kepler, but IMO that mean bringing in a FA OF to replace him. I see no chance a team coming off a playoff series win is going with Larnach, Wallner and ? (I think we have to assume Buxton will be limited at least to the start the year) starting in the outfield with Castro, Martin, Keirsey as the back ups.

I think one of Wallner or Larnach will start in LF, the other being depth. IMO the Twins did themselves a disservice having Contreras, Stevenson and Garlick getting most of the action in the AAA outfield last year.

I agree about the Outfield concerns.  My feeling is that outfield hitting is a weakness for the Twins.  An upgrade needs to be made via trade or FA.  Possibly move Lewis out there

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

  An upgrade needs to be made via trade or FA.  Possibly move Lewis out there

Agree that the Twins might want to see if they could add someone in the outfield. The problem is who? Maybe Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Tommy Pham or Teoscar Hernandez? Are these guys going to improve the team? One of Bader or Kiermeier? The cost balanced against the expected return may be iffy. 

Royce Lewis has been already discussed endlessly and the Twins made a point to let everyone know that for the foreseeable future Lewis will be at third base.

[TNtwins85]

Polanco, E-Rod, Kyle farmer for Logan Gilbert. Gilbert seems like he’s solid. The twins can maybe help his stuff play up. Controlled for a few more years. Seems like a twins fit. I’m not big on E-Rod. He should be dominating and he’s not. He’s got all the tools but he just seems like a bust to me. Moving Polanco and farmer clears up like 16M in payroll. Allows them to go out and get a big bat in FA which they need. The lack of another star hitter was brutal this year. Let’s be honest, we don’t want the twins going after big money pitchers. We may like it but the twins don’t seem to want to go all out and the pitchers don’t seem to want to come here. I like Polo but he’s dispensable at this moment and Seattle needs a 2B. I think it’s a win win for both teams.

[PuckettProtector]

Sell both Polanco and Kepler for pitching and to restock the farm a bit. Sign Teoscar Hernandez whose right handed bat should play well in TF. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Polanco, E-Rod, Kyle farmer for Logan Gilbert. Gilbert seems like he’s solid. The twins can maybe help his stuff play up. Controlled for a few more years. Seems like a twins fit. I’m not big on E-Rod. He should be dominating and he’s not. He’s got all the tools but he just seems like a bust to me. Moving Polanco and farmer clears up like 16M in payroll. Allows them to go out and get a big bat in FA which they need. The lack of another star hitter was brutal this year. Let’s be honest, we don’t want the twins going after big money pitchers. We may like it but the twins don’t seem to want to go all out and the pitchers don’t seem to want to come here. I like Polo but he’s dispensable at this moment and Seattle needs a 2B. I think it’s a win win for both teams.

Like the idea of adding Gilbert (or Kirby for that matter), but Seattle has stated a desire to acquire more players who put the ball in play. E-Rod tends to strike out a fair amount. Does Lee work?

Also, we all would like to the Twins add a potent bat. Who is that guy? Teoscar Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., or who? Bellinger could protect two positions but may get $200 million total. Soto? Who goes the other way when Soto is a one year deal for big bucks?

There are possibilities, but I'm unclear what teams see the Twins as a valuable trading partner. I'm not too sure the Twins are going for a FA pitcher (like you say) despite the potential promise possible. It also saves trading away assets.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We just have to agree to disagree.  Polanco did not outperform Farmer against LHP as I see it.  Farmer's OPS against LHP was .781 and Polanco .775.  Farmer's wRC+ 117 and Polanco 115.    Farmer is also a much more versatile defender which is a crucial element of this role.  

You also completely dismiss the salary difference and return on Polanco.  I will take Julien and Farmer's versatility on this specific roster plus a decent return on Polanco and never look back.  We will find out what the front office thinks over the winter. 

Polanco OPS was .775 vs Right Handers and wRC+ 115 vs Right Handers. Against lefties he was OPS .823 and wRC+ 128  

But you did make me recheck and that's a good thing because it turns out that I sold Farmer a little short...he was .781 OPS vs lefties like you accurately expressed... I'm not sure where I pulled .729 from but I did. 

Now you can't say I COMPLETELY DISMISSED the salary difference when I typed a paragraph on it.  

 

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Financially... This isn't 10.5 Million Dollars vs. the minimum. It's 10.5 vs 6.5. If you are spending 6.5 million... don't spend it on a short side platoon specialist... Take the better player. If the reason to move Polanco is financial to free up money... OK... but Farmer should go to. Free up 17 million. 

I'm not comfortable downplaying Kyle Farmer in order to defend my choice of Jorge. Kyle did a nice job for us. However he is 33 Years, 2 Months and 18 days old. Jorge Polanco 30 years, 3 months old. Kyle is in his last arb year. Polanco has another club option before you have to make a decision on him. I'm not going to look at stats vs left handers exclusively to pay someone 6.5 million when he will face right handers twice as much no matter how heavy you platoon him.

With that said... I don't mind Farmer returning to the team next year but if I have to choose between the two... It's Polanco every time.  

 

 

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Like the idea of adding Gilbert (or Kirby for that matter), but Seattle has stated a desire to acquire more players who put the ball in play. E-Rod tends to strike out a fair amount. Does Lee work?

Also, we all would like to the Twins add a potent bat. Who is that guy? Teoscar Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., or who? Bellinger could protect two positions but may get $200 million total. Soto? Who goes the other way when Soto is a one year deal for big bucks?

There are possibilities, but I'm unclear what teams see the Twins as a valuable trading partner. I'm not too sure the Twins are going for a FA pitcher (like you say) despite the potential promise possible. It also saves trading away assets.

If they can’t find a worthy pitcher/trading partner I believe the twins will be shopping 3rd tier FA SP’s at the end of free agency. I’d love to be surprised. I would. I just feel this trade solves so many issues. The only down side is losing the longest tenured twin. Who has struggled to stay healthy the last couple seasons. E-Rod doesn’t headline this trade. He’s simply a lottery pick. Polo and Farmer provide the infield depth I believe Seattle wants. Willing to trade those 2 to A. Get a top tier pitcher and B. Free up some money to get another hitter.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

With that said... I don't mind Farmer returning to the team next year but if I have to choose between the two... It's Polanco every time.  

I don't know how you can make this statement without knowing the return for Polanco.  I am assuming they get something pretty good.  Trading established players from depth is how Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have outperformed the Twins over the past 20 years.  I think where we differ is I am putting value on the return. 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't know how you can make this statement without knowing the return for Polanco.  I am assuming they get something pretty good.  Trading established players from depth is how Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have outperformed the Twins over the past 20 years.  I think where we differ is I am putting value on the return. 

Perhaps this conversation is at cross purposes. 

It would seem impossible for anyone to choose Farmer above Polanco straight up where you are picking a team.

When considering all possibilities in the trade market, it seems highly likely that Polanco returns more than Farmer. If the Twins can get a return for Polanco that significantly improves the team, they do it and may even keep Farmer as a reserve.

The unknown is the value another team places on adding a player like Polanco to their roster. We can look to last year where it was assumed that the Twins would need to add several players along with Arraez to acquire Pablo Lopez. Yet Miami had a very high interest and value view of Arraez. 

The unknown puts a limit on a position. Many folks on TD reference BTV for relative values. Both Farmer and Polanco have little value based on that site. In reality there may be a team who highly values Polanco and if another decent player accompanies him a good return is possible. The unknown may also include that there is no interest for Polanco, which means the Twins may need to choose between Farmer and Polanco. In that case, the choice is easy.

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't know how you can make this statement without knowing the return for Polanco.  I am assuming they get something pretty good.  Trading established players from depth is how Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have outperformed the Twins over the past 20 years.  I think where we differ is I am putting value on the return. 

You and I are in the same boat when it comes to return for anybody for that matter. No idea. 

We are back into the value discussion though.

I assume his injuries plus the 10.5 is going to lower his trade value to the point that we don't get a significant enough player back... even though as a player in 2024... i believe that Polanco could be a plus plus player.

Who knows. I certainly don't. But... if Polanco can return a plus plus OF or plus plus starter. I'll drive him to the airport myself. 😉

This whole discussion started with Farmer > Polanco. If choosing between the two... I'm taking the better player.