The Come Up: 3 Twins Prospects Who Improved Their Stock in 2023

[Nick Nelson]

These three Twins prospects put forth impressive seasons in the minors that caused them to rise swiftly in our rankings. Keep an eye out for them in 2024.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of David Festa)

The Twins Daily team recently updated our top prospect tracker with end-of-season rankings and blurbs. This provides an opportunity to compare against our preseason list in search of the biggest changes. 

Today we'll look at three prospects who made the biggest jumps upward over the course of the season. Within, we find three potential drafting success stories for the Twins front office.

David Festa, RHP
Preseason Rank: 13
Postseason Rank: 5

Despite having a scout's frame, 6-foot-6 and lean, Festa wasn't in high demand coming out of Seton Hall University in 2021. His performance there hadn't been terribly impressive and the right-hander's fastball was averaging around 90 MPH. The Twins selected him in the 13th round, seeing him as an intriguing candidate for their velocity-boosting methods. That has worked out well.

Festa was really good in 2022, posting a 2.43 ERA during his first full season as a pro. But it's not uncommon, or necessarily even that telling, to see college pitchers dominate A-ball out of the gates. Which is why he was kept in check at #13 in our preseason rankings. Festa's 2023 campaign did much to remove any doubt of his legitimacy, vaulting him into the organization's top five.

Looking past the 4.19 ERA in inflated offensive environments, there is much to like about the 23-year-old's performance this past season. For one thing his strikeout rate exploded: between Double-A and Triple-A, he piled up 119 strikeouts in 92 ⅓ innings, good for an 11.6 K/9 rate. His once-pedestrian fastball now routinely touches 97-98 on the gun. 

He's got several ingredients the Twins love: extension, velocity, and a good breaking pitch with potential to get better. Festa is challenging Marco Raya for the title of top pitching prospect in the Twins organization.

Tanner Schobel, 2B/3B
Preseason Rank: 18
Postseason Rank: 10 

The Twins went big on Schobel, drafting him with their second-round pick in 2022, on the basis of a breakout junior year at Virginia Tech. The infielder launched 19 home runs and slugged .689 in 59 games for the Hokies before the Twins took him 68th overall. 

In his pro debut last year, the newfound power was nowhere to be found. In 136 plate appearances between rookie ball in Low-A, he managed just one home run, posting a .237/.353/.298. Thus the lukewarm placement on our preseason list this year.

Stepping up to High-A despite his struggles in pitcher-friendly Florida State League, Schobel looked much more like the guy Minnesota targeted in the draft. In 77 games at Cedar Rapids, he slashed .288/.366/.493 with 14 homers, 10 doubles and five triples, launching drives all over the field.

Schobel moved up to Wichita around the All-Star break, and while his performance there wasn't nearly as strong, he held his own as a 22-year-old facing more experienced competition. All in all, his 2023 campaign placed him firmly on the radar.

Kala'i Rosario, OF
Preseason Rank: NR
Postseason Rank: 11 

The Twins drafted the Hawaiian high schooler in the fifth round of a five-round draft in 2020, a season where scouting information and intel were severely limited by COVID. It was the epitome of a longshot, a shot in the dark. For a while, it was looking like a swing and a miss – albeit a low-stakes one.

Rosario wasn't bad in the Florida Complex League (2021) or Florida State League (2022), but he wasn't an offensive standout. And as a right fielder whose glove and speed are not assets, the standard is high. The 2022 production was so ordinary that Rosario didn't even get a nod in our honorable mentions preceding the top 20 countdown in February.

The 21-year-old completely flipped his narrative in 2023. He arrived in Cedar Rapids and torched the Midwest League, slashing .252/.364/.467 with 21 homers and 94 RBIs in 118 games for the Kernels. He ranked sixth among MWL hitters in OPS and fifth in wOBA thanks to a potent power-patience combo.

Now Rosario is playing in the Arizona Fall League, and hitting absolute tanks. He's developing into a prototypical slugging right fielder before our eyes.

Speaking of prototypical sluggers, Yunior Severino also deserves mention in this discussion of ascendant prospects. His 35-HR season between Double-A and Triple-A lifted him from unranked in the spring to #12 – just behind Rosario – in our latest update. 

These risers in the Twins system all offered a lot of reason for encouragement and hope in 2023. But it wasn't all good news. Check back in tomorrow and we'll examine the flip-side of the coin: the prospects who saw the biggest drops in stock this year.

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[tony&rodney]

Oh yah, Festa is looking like a find. I like baseball and especially like watching the game in person. You can pick up so much about how good a player is or how projectable they are watching games live. Unfortunately, my exposure to Festa, Schobel, and Rosario is limited to milb.com. 

My take on Festa is that he is a guy who could be a #2 starting pitcher as soon as 2025. He has some impressive pitches but still has some challenges in staying consistent over more than five innings. I'm thinking Festa is just raw in his craft and needs experience. We will learn quite a bit this coming year because I think the Twins will let him stretch out and allow him to pitch through more situations than he has faced thus far in his career. Festa might be a guy who develops quite bit (physically) this winter. Man, he looks skinny. Experience, refinement of his pitches, and physical maturity should push Festa high up national rankings by mid season. I believe Festa is the Twins top pitching prospect by a fair margin.

I also have watched Schobel and Rosario quite a bit and like both of these guys. I'll save the lengthy read to agree that these two are also making a strong impression. Schobel does so much right and Rosario has worked to be quick to the ball and more selective. Nice post Nick on three fun to watch prospects.

[Blyleven2011]

Triple A should be a fun season for the prospects in 2024 one step away from the show ... 

[Dman]

It would really be nice if Festa turned into a big league rotation option this coming year.  I haven't been as high on Festa after seeing him late in the season at Beloit in 2022.  He was good that night but he gave up some real solid contact as well.  I didn't come away as impressed as I had hoped I would be.  Still the numbers don't lie and his ERA at AA was good for that league as lot's of pitchers got pummeled there.  His xFIP and FIP make him look even better at that level.  I still have my concerns and it will be interesting to see how he does at AAA this coming year.  I am hoping he looks better than ever and can be a rotation helper later in the season if needed.

I didn't like the Schobel pick when the Twins made it, but he made a believer out of me when leading the Midwest league in OPS and HR's until his promotion.  I don't know what happened at AA that set him back but am hoping he bounces back.  His numbers at High A were better than a lot of 1st round draft picks so the potential is there. He just needs to prove he still has that balanced approach next year at AA.

Loved Rosario's season if the K rate was lower he would be top 5 for me.  I was talking him up all season as he started well with just a bit of a slump in the second half. I will say I was surprised he was the MVP of the league, but his offensive numbers were good enough to warrant it and his defense turned out to be better than I realized as well.  If he can control the zone a bit more he is going to be monster bat IMO.

[Nashvilletwin]

Could our starting outfield lineup in ‘25 consist of three rookies: Jenkins, Rosario, and Rodriguez? Maybe Wallner and Martin as reserves and DH? Probably not how things will work out, but fun to imagine.

Boy, throw in Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers and a healthy Kiriloff and that could be quite the young core. If Correa, Buxton, and Vasquez rounded out the 13 position player spots, that would be quite a fun lineup. The Twins outlook is very solid. 

[Brandon]

I saw a pitcher in AA Pierson Ohi.  Does anyone know the story on him?  Is he a solid pitching prospect?  He has solid numbers.  

[DJL44]

The Twins are seeing a lot of success developing pitchers. Varland, Ober and Festa are all producing far better than the consensus believed. I'm glad they drafted pitcher heavy last summer so they can have more development successes.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Would the Twins be tempted to trade Festa for an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control? Would Festa alone be enough to get that kind of trade done, or would the Twins need to add position players? A lot depends on what the trade market looks like - with the free agent class not being great and with the Twins unlikely to dip their toe into that end of the pool, trading for a pitcher always seems like their preferred path. Additionally, a lot will depend on how Ryan, Ober and Varland are viewed internally - are they seen as future core pieces of the rotation or are they seen as guys with limited ceilings, i.e., 4/5 starters.

[arby58]

16 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Would the Twins be tempted to trade Festa for an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control? 

Festa is not established, why would a team trade an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control for him? Besides, a team trading starting pitching is generally not looking for it back, they would have other needs. Maybe they need an outfielder, and Kepler/Wallner, Larnach makes it happen (although I wouldn't give up both Wallner and Fiesta unless it was a really solid starting pitcher).

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Festa is not established, why would a team trade an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control for him? Besides, a team trading starting pitching is generally not looking for it back, they would have other needs. Maybe they need an outfielder, and Kepler/Wallner, Larnach makes it happen (although I wouldn't give up both Wallner and Fiesta unless it was a really solid starting pitcher).

Neither was Chase Petty who begot Sonny Gray.  I could see then doing something similar again but I don't think Festa suits that model.  He's to close to the model of what they would trade for rather than trade away.  They are looking for guys about to breakout that they can tweak.  I'd like to see them throw more of these guys at the bullpen to get them going in the bigs.

I would not be surprised if they pulled the trigger on a Charlee Soto for a Pablo/Sonny type next year again though.  Present value for the contending window.

[jmlease1]

Festa is on a really good track right now. I expect to see him working in AAA to hone a 3rd pitch and get deeper into games, both of which will be needed for him to succeed in MLB. He's got some great tools and his performance has been strong.

I've been a big Rosario booster for some time, and he had a great season. he's still very young, and I think his experience in the AFL will help him. He's going to have to keep working on his contact skills, but the ball definitely explodes off the bat and he's going to get opportunities to show his talent. It's exciting to see a player of his youth develop quickly so that you start to know who they are and have them in the upper minors before they need to go on the 40-man.

Schobel...well, we'll see. He should have dominated high A, and he did. He might be one of those players who adjusts when he repeats a level, and those guys can have success too.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Would the Twins be tempted to trade Festa for an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control? Would Festa alone be enough to get that kind of trade done, or would the Twins need to add position players? A lot depends on what the trade market looks like - with the free agent class not being great and with the Twins unlikely to dip their toe into that end of the pool, trading for a pitcher always seems like their preferred path. Additionally, a lot will depend on how Ryan, Ober and Varland are viewed internally - are they seen as future core pieces of the rotation or are they seen as guys with limited ceilings, i.e., 4/5 starters.

We NEVER have enough pitchers. Trading for a #1 or #2 would be great but not at the expense of trading our best pitching prospects. I’m still salty that Chase Petty is no longer a Twin. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Festa is not established, why would a team trade an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control for him? Besides, a team trading starting pitching is generally not looking for it back, they would have other needs. Maybe they need an outfielder, and Kepler/Wallner, Larnach makes it happen (although I wouldn't give up both Wallner and Fiesta unless it was a really solid starting pitcher).

Good question, and I don't necessarily know the answer but I would think the starting point is a team being conscious of cost and wanting to keep payroll down.

[Danchat]

I had said in a prospect ranking article about 2 years ago that I thought Rosario would eventually make it to the top 15 prospects - glad to see he's developing well.

[mikelink45]

I would have had Severino in the top three and not just an added comment.  We are lucky to have four really intriguing risers. 

[Doctor Wu]

Good article, Those three players all show lots of promise. In addition to those guys, I was pleased with the progress of many others players in the system this year. As the song goes: the future is so bright, I gotta wear shades!

[TopGunn#22]

Soto is a guy we haven't seen or heard much about since he was drafted.  It's waaay too early to consider dealing a guy like him.  Gotta give us some time to see what he can do.  That said, guys who are risers can and should always be considered for trades to improve the major league team.  It just depends what their actual value is in the trade market and what you could get back.

As a trade partner, consider the Milwaukee Brewers.  Manager Craig Counsel is interviewing with the Mets.  Counsel gets more out of less than any manager in baseball.  He's practically the "Anti Dave Roberts."  If he goes, and with Brandon Woodruff out all next season with Tommy John surgery,  I expect the Brewers to trade Corbin Burnes.  Burnes is 28 years old and has already won a Cy Young.  He's ONE year older than Joe Ryan.  Would the Brewers be interested in Festa? Schobel? Would Bailey Ober interest them?  The appeal to the Brewers is money.  Burnes is a better pitcher than Ryan, Ober and probably Festa will ever be.  But he's going to cost a LOT.  Could the Twins make a deal with the Brewers to put Burnes and Lopez at the top of their rotation?  Could we afford to pay Burnes with no TV deal in the near future?  

It's always hard to trade the "fallers" because their value is at a low point.  It's sometimes shrewd to trade the "risers" because their value is peaking.  There's no way I'm trading Brooks Lee at his peak value because I'm convinced he will be a star.  How sure are the Twins that Festa, Rosario or Schobel will be stars?  Who will be next years "risers??"

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

There's no way I'm trading Brooks Lee at his peak value because I'm convinced he will be a star.  How sure are the Twins that Festa, Rosario or Schobel will be stars? 

That is a fair question and one all front office people ponder. Remember Kyle Lewis or Evan White from Seattle? Sure-fire all stars and Seattle even signed White to a long term deal. Stuff happens. Baseball is a rough business.

I'm high on Brooks Lee as well, but he has never been labeled as a regular All Star type player. He will be a regular starter for an MLB team with solid performances. This has been and continues to be his line. If you watch Lee, he is really solid and does some good things on the field, but he isn't a wow player who puts up crazy numbers. He is just really good, which is something.

Festa is in some ways opposite to Lee, albeit a pitcher. He has a lack of polish and is very inexperienced. However, starting pitchers who can locate 3-4 pitches with a fastball hitting 96-98 with regularity and a wicked slider are not common. Festa has at least another year of learning but I would not be surprised to see the skinny 6'-6" right-hander become a #2 starting pitcher.

You are correct that a team will get more in trade for a highly rated prospect and that the evaluations are tricky. For a sure thing, I would bet on Lee. For star quality, I would pick Festa. Then again, both could be Evan White.

I'm also keen on an attempt to add Burnes via trade, but I think one or two other moves need to happen first.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

23 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We NEVER have enough pitchers. Trading for a #1 or #2 would be great but not at the expense of trading our best pitching prospects. I’m still salty that Chase Petty is no longer a Twin. 

I feel very, very confident in saying that Chase Petty will never be as good as Sonny Gray. I think a lot of fans have this idealized image of Petty where he's this flame-throwing starter in the mold of Jacob DeGrom, where he routinely hits 100mph and has a wipeout slider. In reality, he sits around 95mph with a decent slider and change. 

I don't see any places putting him in the top-100 global prospects, and he's probably the 3rd best pitching prospect in the Reds' system. He may very well be a productive big leaguer, but I will take a top-2 Cy Young season and another great year for six years of a #3 starter, which is probably Petty's ceiling.