Thinking Ahead: How the Twins' Books Shape Up Going Forward

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins have signed players to a number of precedent-shattering contracts in the past few years. Let's take a look at how these long-term commitments might affect their ability to pursue other big-time deals this offseason.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009.

Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million).

These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were.

Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option):

 

In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.)

So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit.

The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration.

Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60).

The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25. 

This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely.

But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility.

Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason.

If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter.

View full article

[arby58]

A helpful look forward. The next step would be to do some 'guesstimating' at how the salaries for the young core, if they perform reasonably well, escalates. 

The good news for the Twins is that both Kepler and Polanco will fall off the books in 1 and 2 years respectively (if the Twins pick up the option on Polanco for 2025), so that provides useful money as well. The other good news is there is another wave of emerging 'nearly ready for prime time' players ala Lee, Martin, Severino that will continue to provide salary value in coming years. 

The pitching side is less clear, but the hitting/fielding side looks pretty strong.

[terrydactyls]

The guaranteed contracts go up $23M in 2025.  But they also go down by $25M in 2026.  In essence, the Twins would only be taking a one-year hit on the existing contracts.  Hopefully, that won't deter them from thinking long term.

[miracleb]

First base and DH are the two easiest positions to replace "internally" on the cheap.....and be just as productive as the two guys you have mentioned.  It rarely makes sense!  Find me another Nelson Cruz.......we can talk.

[tony&rodney]

The addition of players like Goldschmidt, Alonso, and Soto possibilities are doable financially, which is the point of the post. I agree that adding a big contract seems unlikely, although I'm not opposed to adding a pitcher like Montgomery.

The trick for this offseason is how can the Twins acquire players without hurting the team for the next few years. There are going to be options and while rolling with the current talent plus a couple of depth pieces can work, it will be interesting to follow whether Falvey makes some larger moves. 

The competition for one year deals may be pretty crowded. Solano worked out well. The trades for Farmer and Taylor were important for 2023. Picking up Willi Castro turned out better than expected. I think Farmer may have more worth than he has ever had in his career. Pitchers like Montas or Severino could either totally bomb or prove to be valuable. Teams may be willing to pay more than $10 million for that lottery ticket. There is value out there. The Twins signed Jeff Hoffman last March, released him, and then he had a good year for Philadelphia. I wouldn't say that was a mistake but it is an example that there are players who can help a team. 

I'm thinking that three teams are potential trade partners for the Twins: Seattle, Milwaukee, and Miami. Falvey has his eyes on much more. The key, as always, is to make a discussion revolve around mutual benefit. The unknown is how other teams value the players in the Twins system. Whenever I think of a possible trade I try to imagine that the other team can see their team improving with the transaction. Last offseason I had the Twins trading Arraez and Larnach for Luzardo and Cabrera. I didn't think Lopez would be available. Can the Twins pull off another similar trade, which would return a salaried controllable starting pitcher? This is one way to keep the roster money down. The Twins are likely looking to keep below $150 million for 2024. This makes it difficult to add an expensive free agent.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think we are likely either to stand pat completely or to pull off a couple of trades that make fans say “They traded (Insert Name Here)!  That’s terrible!”  It doesn’t sound like there will be enough folding money to go out and sign any impact guys — at least for more than one year with the current broadcast rights situation, so making a trade or two would seem to be the best way to improve the club.  I completely agree with @tony&rodney that the key will be to make a mutually beneficial trade for both teams.  They already have the track record of doing so in the Arraez/Lopez trade, so that should make more teams willing to talk to them.  The guys who they trade for are unlikely to be household names, but rather guys that could be on the cusp of something special.  It’s a tough chance to take, but one that must be taken.  

The obvious trade candidates at the moment would seem to be Farmer, Larnach, and Polanco unless we can trade a pitcher plus a sweetener for a better pitcher.  The difficult part is whether to trade any other young guys.  What could you get for Julien? With Martin and Lee on the horizon, would this be the time to trade high on a player who could be replaced in the lineup by another prospect?  I don’t know the answer, but I could definitely guess the tires will be kicked on such a move this winter.  

[Whitey333]

Yes it looks like the Twins have some good prospects on the farm.  But let's keep that in mind.  As of now that's all they are is prospects.  They have proven nothing that they can play with the big boys in the majors. We all hope so but let's be realistic here.  Most of those prospects won't make it.  So you obviously have to develop the ones with the most upside in hopes they contri ute to the major league team.  A contending team not only needs young players but veterans mixed in for experience.  I'm not expecting much different this off season.  The Twins will wait until the last minute to make meaningful moves.  Some may work out.  Go Twins

. 

[JD-TWINS]

Seems to me that either Polanco or Julien need to be traded. Polanco’s downside is durability - Julien’s is experience/track record.

Since Polanco has a contract for ‘24 & ‘25 it seems he’s a known quantity for another team in the post-season hunt…….another 15 teams. Anyway, even with Lee coming, I think we have to keep Julien for the pure $ value as well as probable offensive output.

Polanco - Larnach - Woods-Richardson for an established arm with a couple years of control?

……………………..

BIG move might be to clear $$ by trading both Polanco & Kepler and clearing a path for an offer to Montgomery at 4 years & $95M………..Varland to the Pen………Top staff in baseball!

Wallner to right - Lewis or Castro to left (other at 3B) - Taylor/Buxton/Gordon in CF

Bet on Lee - Kirilloff - Julien - Lewis - Wallner  - Jeffers to be what has become expected, not to mention CC. Buxton is gravy going forward if available.

Other pitching option is $28M to Gray in ‘24 & $18M for ‘25 & team option for ‘26 at $18M to meet his goal of 3 years & north of $60M with a $5M buyout for ‘26. ……..maybe reasonable?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The obvious trade candidates at the moment would seem to be Farmer, Larnach, and Polanco unless we can trade a pitcher plus a sweetener for a better pitcher.  The difficult part is whether to trade any other young guys.  What could you get for Julien? With Martin and Lee on the horizon, would this be the time to trade high on a player who could be replaced in the lineup by another prospect?  I don’t know the answer, but I could definitely guess the tires will be kicked on such a move this winter.  

I get that Farmer might be of interest to a team without a viable shortstop, but otherwise he's just a serviceable utility player - nothing wrong with that, but it's not going to bring you much more than that in return. Larnach will be 27 before the start of spring training and is starting to look like a player with a great future behind him. Polanco has injury concerns. I don't see a significant return for any of them, but Polanco should bring you at least a decent prospect, and he does have two years of control. I'd say Kepler would be more viable as a trade chip, as he is durable and a decent defensive outfielder - but he only has one year of team control. I doubt any of them yields a big return.

I'd bet you could get something tangible for Julien - pretty impressive rookie year. He may be a variation on the Arraez theme, as he's not great defensively, not great speed for a lead-off hitter, but he gets on base and has a little more pop to make up for more strike-outs and less average. If you could get a front line starter for him, sure - IF you believe Lee is ready and/or Polanco will be reasonably healthy.

[Nashvilletwin]

Things will be ok.  Think about who should be in the starting lineup or on the travelling squad in ‘25:

Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Martin, Rodriguez, Castro and, maybe one or two other minimum salary/arbitration position players with Jenkins on the way.  Add in Correa, Buxton and Vasquez and that’s it for non pitchers. That totals about $75MM. Btw, that team is young, but still has excellent experience and senior leadership.  
 

We should be able to cobble together a pitching staff for another $75MM, especially if Ryan, Ober, and Varland plus one or two prospects round out the starters with Lopez, Paddack and maybe one other.  
 

All is good, the future is bright. Just hope we don’t overthink it - add a starter, pick up Kepler, trade Polanco and let the kids play. 

[EGFTShaw]

I am not betting against our FO creativity.

I am not betting on them doing it early either.

So, us fans get to lament, (maybe they have a deal with Twins Daily for content writing material 😁), for most of the winter off season.

That said, even with the spike in 2025, we are set up for the next maybe 5-6 years pretty nicely.

I am still in Camp SonnyG, (wasn't this an orange juice wannabee drink years ago), over other pitchers except maybe Snell is, I guess the correct term is Will Be, out of our price range.  SonnyG may even too pricey that we have to settle for a more generic orange drink.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Other pitching option is $28M to Gray in ‘24 & $18M for ‘25 & team option for ‘26 at $18M to meet his goal of 3 years & north of $60M

Then that would have to be a player option for Sonny, not a team option. 

I do agree with you that declining Kepler’s option and moving Wallner to right looks like an easy decision. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Kepler, Polanco, Thielbar, and Farmer all become FA at the end of next year (In theory, we could move on from all four this year). I think the FO intentionally structured the Correa/Lopez/Paddack contracts with elevated salaries in '25 because the two long-term contracts they had on the books before they inked those deals expired before that year. 

The only bad news is that Lewis, Ryan, Jax, Stewart, Duran, and Ober will all be hitting their first arbitration years in that season, and while they will still be cheap and controllable, a $2M-$5M pay raise for six guys will take up a relatively large portion of the budget.

[MMMordabito]

Looks like a chance that Randy Dobnak will make it rain at the Ox Cart in Lowertown in 2024/25.

[Brandon]

Sonny Gray theoretical contract 3 year 70 million year 1 -25 million, year 2 15 million, year 3 30 million.  

[IndianaTwin]

56 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

....I am still in Camp SonnyG, (wasn't this an orange juice wannabee drink years ago), over other pitchers except maybe Snell is, I guess the correct term is Will Be, out of our price range.  SonnyG may even too pricey that we have to settle for a more generic orange drink.

 

[IndianaTwin]

54 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I am not betting against our FO creativity.

I am not betting on them doing it early either.

So, us fans get to lament, (maybe they have a deal with Twins Daily for content writing material 😁), for most of the winter off season.

That said, even with the spike in 2025, we are set up for the next maybe 5-6 years pretty nicely.

I am still in Camp SonnyG, (wasn't this an orange juice wannabee drink years ago), over other pitchers except maybe Snell is, I guess the correct term is Will Be, out of our price range.  SonnyG may even too pricey that we have to settle for a more generic orange drink.

Could you please write yourself a reminder to post your first two sentences every week or so? It could save us from a lot of your third paragraph.

[roger]

While everyone is talking about where they can trade or spend more, the reality is that they will very likely spend less.  You alluded to that, however, I didn't see the reason. 

Correct me if I missed something, but they do not have a contract for television next year, right?  I seem to remember reading somewhere awhile ago that Bally wanted to do deals with several MLB teams, but it would be at least 20% less than this past year.  Well, that would be a $10M++ hit for the Twins.  Will that be the best deal they can get?  Will Bally even be offering less?  With all the uncertainty related to $54M of 2023 revenue, it is going to be a winter of uncertainty for the Twins.  I don't see them writing any big checks, even for one year.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Interesting look, couple of quibbles.  Mauer's contract was for $184M, not $164M.  Correa's first contract was for $105.3M, not $103M.

All in all, the Twins books are pretty clean for the foreseeable future, which should afford the FO a reasonable amount of flexibility to address multiple positions annually, or take a big swing 2-3 times before the end of the decade.  It will be fascinating to see which (or neither) option is taken.

[2wins87]

Maybe the front office will use this year as an opportunity to reset the payroll for future TV/streaming revenues, which will take a while to return to where they were this year.  I would think/hope that the payroll won't go down too much though, and will still be in at least the $145-150 MM range.  They are also firmly in a window of opportunity with a new young core getting established, so I think it's totally fair to expect them to make short term decisions to solidify next year's team as much as possible, including probably some one-year commitments

Obviously replacing Gray will be the top priority, which will most likely require more than a 1-year commitment, even via trade.

I do think they need another bat as well, and I do think there could be some 1-year improvements there.

It's hard to get true impact bats on 1-year FA deals.  The only options I see that might be in that category would be J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt.  Martinez maybe could fit as a RHH, though he really is only a DH at this point, and the K rate last year as an aging player is a red flag.  Belt could at least cover 1B if Kirilloff is out to start he season, which sounds likely, but seems less of a fit as a LHH and has been less consistent offensively.  Either would feel like more of an improvement than Gallo this year, but wouldn't necessarily move the needle that much on their WS odds.

There are potentially more options available via trade, though it's tougher to identify.  The dream would be to land Alonso, Goldschmidt, or even Soto, which would definitely make the lineup much more imposing.  They should have the payroll space and prospect capital, but it seems very unlikely that any of them are actually available.

On the lower end, I think Mark Canha could be a very good fit as a RHH outfielder.  He had a 120 wRC+ after joining the Brewers and has better K rates than a lot of the current lineup.  The Brewers, always in need of offense, would probably like to keep him, but they are more cost sensitive than the Twins and have some big arbitration salaries this year. They also might be hoping to have Jackson Chourio in the outfield relatively early next season. Picking up Canha's option is evidently not a given for them, so they could probably be convinced to deal him at relatively low cost.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

First base and DH are the two easiest positions to replace "internally" on the cheap.....and be just as productive as the two guys you have mentioned.  It rarely makes sense!  Find me another Nelson Cruz.......we can talk.

Last year Alonso hit 46 HR with an .822 OPS (league average was .734)--and that was pretty easily his worst year influenced by an anomalous BABIP.  Goldschmidt hit 25 HR with an .810 OPS--also more or less his worst year, although his underlying metrics were pretty similar.  The Twins have no one in their system who looks ready to replicate those numbers at 1B/DH unless you're talking about moving Lewis or Julien down the defensive spectrum just for kicks.  If either of those guys are available for a #15-#25 prospect in our system, the Twins should jump on that, even if it means paying the entirety of their contract.

That said, I do agree that if no one at least as good as Alonso/Goldy is available, the Twins should stick with internal options, and see if they can develop a bigger bat (or wait until the deadline, and acquire the big bat then).

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Then that would have to be a player option for Sonny, not a team option. 

I do agree with you that declining Kepler’s option and moving Wallner to right looks like an easy decision. 

Absolutely zero chance Kepler's option is declined.  If Kepler is not on this team next year, it's because the FO picked up the option, and then flipped him for something.  According to Gleeman, the Twins had offers for Kepler last offseason, coming off a 95 wRC+ season--they'll certainly have offers (and probably much better ones) with Kepler producing at a 124 wRC+ rate last year.  Here are some other players who also had a 124 wRC+ in 2023; Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Ozzie Albies, and Rafael Devers.  Further consider that Kepler put up a 154 wRC+ in the second half (Juan Soto had a 155 wRC+ in 2023), with July, August, and September all over 130, and the fact that he'll only cost $10M, and any team with playoff aspirations and a less than solid OF corps would be quite happy to give you quite a bit of value for Kepler, especially because the QO is available for after the year.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Could you please write yourself a reminder to post your first two sentences every week or so? It could save us from a lot of your third paragraph.

I did go undercover and get the real deal from the FO...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

any team with playoff aspirations and a less than solid OF corps would be quite happy to give you quite a bit of value for Kepler,

Then I think the Twins should trade Kepler to one of those teams, and receive quite a bit of value in return.

[Morneau for Gov]

The Twins had a brilliant 2019. 101 wins and the all-time home run record. Thinking they had a good young core they went out and signed Nelson Cruz (41 hr), CJ Cron (25 hr), Jonathan Schoop (23 hr), Marwin Gonzalez (15 hr), Michael Pineda (4.01 era 11 wins), and traded for Odorizzi (3.51 era 15 wins). They followed up 2019's success by signing the biggest free agent contract in team history Josh Donaldson. I'll be shocked given that 2023's success was driven so heavily by rookies if the Twins don't try hard to add to their roster, build around their core, going into 2024. 

[DocBauer]

The thing I keep thinking back to is a recent comment made by Tom Froemming in a video. As he basically said, the FO/ownership knew all about the TV situation for some time now, and still went out and signed Correa, and signed the extension for Lopez. So while there might not be an easy answer as to what to do, or how it will all play out, I don't think they made those kinds of moves thinking to themselves: "well, I hope we win big in 2023 because after that, it's all downhill for a couple of years."

Again, not sure how it's all going to work out, but I don't see payroll going up, as it has pretty regularly the past few seasons. But I am hoping it will stay at $150M with a new deal, maybe a few more $M coming from as of yet unknown source(s) like some new advertising, and FO/ownership pushing more towards a 55-60% spending threshold of total revenue. (at least in the short term).

They've got roughly $30-31M to work with if that happens. And that's keeping all 3 of Polanco, Kepler, AND Farmer, if I understand correctly. So if one of those is not kept, or moved, they would have another $6-10M to work with. That should be enough for a quality starter, and one more good bat somewhere. Possibly a solid but not grossly expensive pen addition or re-sign, (can't believe I'm actually, maybe, probably, in favor of Pagan back), and set up an inexpensive, milb flier offer to a SP depth option.

It's all a question of at least keeping the payroll at status quo. And I just can't believe they are remotely blind-sided by the loss of the Bally contract. So no matter how this turns out, I don't see any kind of big cut.

[miracleb]

On 10/25/2023 at 12:20 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Last year Alonso hit 46 HR with an .822 OPS (league average was .734)--and that was pretty easily his worst year influenced by an anomalous BABIP.  Goldschmidt hit 25 HR with an .810 OPS--also more or less his worst year, although his underlying metrics were pretty similar.  The Twins have no one in their system who looks ready to replicate those numbers at 1B/DH unless you're talking about moving Lewis or Julien down the defensive spectrum just for kicks.  If either of those guys are available for a #15-#25 prospect in our system, the Twins should jump on that, even if it means paying the entirety of their contract.

That said, I do agree that if no one at least as good as Alonso/Goldy is available, the Twins should stick with internal options, and see if they can develop a bigger bat (or wait until the deadline, and acquire the big bat then).

Alonso is 28 years old and hit 46 home runs....not even worth mentioning as a Twin's option to pay him what he will get.  Might as well throw in Aaron Judge......LOL!  Goldschmidt is 36 yrs old(?).....I would much rather have Julien, Kiriloff, or Wallner play the position (1st base or DH.)

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

Alonso is 28 years old and hit 46 home runs....not even worth mentioning as a Twin's option to pay him what he will get.  Might as well throw in Aaron Judge......LOL!  Goldschmidt is 36 yrs old(?).....I would much rather have Julien, Kiriloff, or Wallner play the position (1st base or DH.)

You're missing the point of what I said.  I was responding to a poster who said the Twins had internal options who would be as good as Alonso/Goldy.  My point was that they probably don't have an option that good (leaving money aside, since we're talking about player quality, not player value).

That said, if the Mets wanted to try and recoup prospect value, they'll have to pay part of Alonso's salary--no one is going to trade much of anything of value for Alonso while having to pay him $20M+ and then have him hit FA.  As such, the Twins would probably be able to pay Alonso only about $10M, while getting some 1B insurance in case Kiriloff continues to be injury-prone/ineffective.

I don't think the Twins should do that--if they're going to give up prospect capital, it should be for pitching in my opinion, but the cost of Alonso in 2024 will not be a barrier if Falvine want to make that move.

[miracleb]

16 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

You're missing the point of what I said.  I was responding to a poster who said the Twins had internal options who would be as good as Alonso/Goldy.  My point was that they probably don't have an option that good (leaving money aside, since we're talking about player quality, not player value).

That said, if the Mets wanted to try and recoup prospect value, they'll have to pay part of Alonso's salary--no one is going to trade much of anything of value for Alonso while having to pay him $20M+ and then have him hit FA.  As such, the Twins would probably be able to pay Alonso only about $10M, while getting some 1B insurance in case Kiriloff continues to be injury-prone/ineffective.

I don't think the Twins should do that--if they're going to give up prospect capital, it should be for pitching in my opinion, but the cost of Alonso in 2024 will not be a barrier if Falvine want to make that move.

You missed my point.  Goldschmidt...we have better options internally...... and Aaron Judge and Alonso.......we are not getting them.

:)

[SteveLV]

Why not replace Sonny Gray with.....Sonny Gray?

He likes it here, he flourished here, and he publicly stated he is not chasing max dollars.

Get a 3 year deal done and we have a rock-solid top of the rotation.

I would explore bundling some of our AAAA type players to try and upgrade a corner outfield position with a strong RH bat. A collection of Larnach, Wallner, etc., for a 3-4 WAR type of stud.  Clears 40-man space and fills a definite need.