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Royce Lewis extension

CoasterProductions
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CoasterProductions

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8 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Yes but the intent is to lock up some free agency years at a steep discount by overpaying during pre-arb/arb. Similar to what the Braves have done with Acuna and Albies to great success

Or what Arizona did with Corbin Carroll after playing like 10 games last season

DJL44 St Paul Saints

DJL44

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9 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

Or what Arizona did with Corbin Carroll after playing like 10 games last season

Carroll was 21 last season. Lewis is 24 now. There is a big difference between buying ages 27-29 and ages 30-32.

Vanimal46 Cooperstown

Vanimal46

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22 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Yes but the intent is to lock up some free agency years at a steep discount by overpaying during pre-arb/arb. Similar to what the Braves have done with Acuna and Albies to great success

The major difference between Lewis and your two examples (Acuna/Albies) is the latter were international FA signings. Albies got $350k in 2013, Acuna got $100k in 2014.

Lewis received a $6.75 million signing bonus as the #1 overall pick in the draft. 

NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin Draft Eligible

NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

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4 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Royce Lewis looks like the next Mickey Mantle today, but I always wait 2.5 years to evaluate a rookie. Luckily, at that time, they will still be able to offer him a monster contract if they are so inclined. 

That defeats the purpose of the extension. Even if he regresses a lot from this year, and is a 120 wRC+ hitter instead of a 150 wRC+ hitter, you'd a) be paying 2026 market value, and b) you won't have the pre-arb years to entice him to sign a lowered AAV contract.

If you give him his extension in a month, you'll be paying 2023 market price (which will look really cheap in 5 years anyways), and he would be making less than a million dollars next year if not for the extension- thus giving him an incentive to extend.

Even free-agent contracts from 5 years ago look comparatively cheap today. Bryce Harper's contract was supposed to cripple the Phillies in 2019, as 25M/yr into a player's age 38 season was considered a death sentence for the franchise. Today, the Phillies are giving Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos 20M/year each, who are definitely not on the same plane as Harper. I am assuming that in five more years, Harper will likely not even be in the top ten highest-paid Phillies. Lock in Lewis now and get him on a team-friendly deal. 

Jerr FCL Twins

Jerr

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41 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

Royce Lewis deserves an extension what are some of your proposals? Here is mine 8 years $96,000,000 with incentives.

WAY too soon and no need to do it. Makes no sense, with him under control for 5 more years.

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NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

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5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Carroll was 21 last season. Lewis is 24 now. There is a big difference between buying ages 27-29 and ages 30-32.

Which aging curve are you using, 1988's? If Lewis is going to play 3B, especially, he will be able to play well into his 30s barring injuries.

Josh Donaldson placed 11th in MVP voting in his age 33 season and had a very productive age-35 season with the Twins following the covid-shortened season. Adrian Beltre retired six years ago, and he received MVP votes in his age 31 season through his age 37 season. Old friend Eddy Escobar was an All-Star at age 32. Justin Turner has only been a start since his age-31 season. Nolan Arenado has made the All-Star team each of the past three years. 

As I mentioned above, market rates in 10 years will be so low that any dropoff in play will not significantly hamper the franchise. 15M-20M AAV will probably be the norm for back-end starters and setup-men in 2033. Are we really that scared of missing out on a 4/5 starter in ten years that we don't extend one of the most exciting young talents in franchise history?

Jocko87 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Jocko87

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17 minutes ago, Jerr said:

WAY too soon and no need to do it. Makes no sense, with him under control for 5 more years.

If they can lock him up for 96m it will be the bargain of the century.  Alex Bregman is a good comp who got 5/100.  It is very possible his arbitration years cost something close to 96m if they let it ride.  There is significant risk for the Twins getting priced out of the market and risk to Lewis on injury history.  I think something gets done but 96m doesn’t get a call back unless it’s for 5 years, not 8, no matter how many incentives.

chpettit19 Minnesota Twins

chpettit19

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I think 8-10 years at 14-17 mil per year would be what I'd be offering him. Julio Rodriguez just got 12/210 that could be 17/470. 

His injuries and age mean he gets a little less than Rodriguez, but Rodriguez is getting 18 mil per through his age 33 season with a club option after his age 29 season. Locking up Royce for slightly less through his age 33-35 season would be a good deal for the Twins, and take the injury concerns out of his head.

Schmoeman5 FCL Twins

Schmoeman5

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23 minutes ago, Jerr said:

WAY too soon and no need to do it. Makes no sense, with him under control for 5 more years.

I get your argument. And I agree in part. The downside is IF he is the next Kirby Puckett it's going to cost any team way more. Let's take the 8 years for 96. That takes him to age 32 or so. Vs having control of him till age 29. At age 29 if he signed a 3 year deal similar to Correas from last year 3 year at 35 million per year (salaries going up every year) it's going to cost way more. And his injury history doesn't help.

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DuluthFan

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Apparently no one remembers the extension given to another injury prone player on this same team. Byron Buxton anyone? Wait until he can put together a few seasons without missing half the year due to injuries. This team cannot afford two large multiyear contracts for players who end up spending more time on the IL than on the field.

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Muppet

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19 minutes ago, DuluthFan said:

Apparently no one remembers the extension given to another injury prone player on this same team. Byron Buxton anyone? Wait until he can put together a few seasons without missing half the year due to injuries. This team cannot afford two large multiyear contracts for players who end up spending more time on the IL than on the field.

Not to mention the other half of the payroll... Carlos Correa. 

LA Vikes Fan FCL Twins

LA Vikes Fan

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I understand the angst on the Buxton contract but let's not forget it's "only" $14.2875m a year.  That's not a huge amount of money for player of his caliber even with the injury risk. I actually think that contract is a good deal for both sides with a fairly reasonable guarantee if for a guy of his talent level, with him having the chance to make more if you really performs. That kind of contract is basically number 3 or 4 starter money and he is potentially much more than that. I think it was a good risk at the time and is a good risk now, even if he winds up having to move to LF or 1B to protect his legs, or is really a full-time DH. 

2wins87 FCL Twins

2wins87

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2 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

Royce Lewis deserves an extension what are some of your proposals? Here is mine 8 years $96,000,000 with incentives.

Buying out 3 free agent years I think would probably cost at least $75 million, plus the arb years, I think you're at least $15 million short on that offer, probably much more.

The bigger issue is that Lewis doesn't exactly want to hit free agency for the first time at age 32.  Either lock him up through 36 or so with a $200M+ deal or an extension doesn't really make that much sense for Lewis's side

Trov Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Trov

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The problem with Royce and contract is we will have him under control until he is age 30.  Which means he will be on downside of career.  If we sign him now it will be to buy out some FA years, but then it will delay his FA into 30, which will decrease his chance of a big contract into his later 30's, like others have got. So really, unless we want to buy out his cheaper years and give him like a 10 year or more contract, which I doubt we will do, it makes little sense for him.  Yes, he has been great, but he also has been injury prone, even outside of the ACL injuries he missed time 2 times this year for soft muscle issues, not even the same muscle as well.  That is a concern for me to sign a guy now. 

If we are looking for at a 8 year deal as suggested, it makes little sense for him to sign that now, if he believes in himself, because he will be buying out too much FA years. He may want to sign a 5 or 6 year deal to lock himself in and protect against injuries down the road, but more than that will decrease his max earning potential. 

With that the case, the team will not want to sign him to a 5 or 6 year, unless it is very team friendly because we still have 2 years of very cheap, 3 years of more, but if he is injured parts of those years, they will not be crazy high.  The team has a lot more risk at this point in my opinion.  

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IDK.  Just because a guy has a career playoff OPS of 3.417 - now we have to lock him up?

Seriously, I get where the OP is coming from and I really don't care either way because I know he's going to be locked up for a while regardless.  My own two cents would be to hold off until he gets a full year or so under his belt.  I realize it's not a perfect comparison (Lewis is far better), but as another cautionary example - last year Miranda was looking like a future stud.  A year later and I'm not sure he's even in their plans.  Things change in a hurry.  Lewis sure looks the part.  But he's also been hurt a lot.  I want to see him settle into a permanent position while maintaining his current excellence with the bat before locking him up.

Brandon Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Brandon

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3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think 8-10 years at 14-17 mil per year would be what I'd be offering him. Julio Rodriguez just got 12/210 that could be 17/470. 

His injuries and age mean he gets a little less than Rodriguez, but Rodriguez is getting 18 mil per through his age 33 season with a club option after his age 29 season. Locking up Royce for slightly less through his age 33-35 season would be a good deal for the Twins, and take the injury concerns out of his head.

I like the Julio Rodriguez contract as a format an extension for Lewis should be like.  There are protections in it for both team and player and enough money and time to potentially lock him up for his career.  

Oldgoat_MN FCL Twins

Oldgoat_MN

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These options will be fun to talk about all winter. Ryan & Ober will be fun conversations to have, as pitchers are the most likely to worry about injuries.

As much as I am a fan of Royce, I'd be inclined to visit this next year after a full, injury free year. More expensive? Absolutely. Safer for the team? Yes.

 

GusGus11 Draft Eligible

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On 10/4/2023 at 10:34 AM, DJL44 said:

Carroll was 21 last season. Lewis is 24 now. There is a big difference between buying ages 27-29 and ages 30-32.

Umm exactly, which is why you lock up Lewis now.

Wait 5 years when hes 29 and you are paying him into his mid 30s and at a higher rate

GusGus11 Draft Eligible

GusGus11

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On 10/4/2023 at 11:50 AM, DuluthFan said:

Apparently no one remembers the extension given to another injury prone player on this same team. Byron Buxton anyone? Wait until he can put together a few seasons without missing half the year due to injuries. This team cannot afford two large multiyear contracts for players who end up spending more time on the IL than on the field.

Huh??

Buxtons contract is cheap as **** lol. And the reason he had to take said deal is becauase of his injuries.

Also he wasnt pre Arb. We signed him to that deal when he was like 28 so his years go into his mid 30s.

Which is what we could avoid by locking up Royce now.

DJL44 St Paul Saints

DJL44

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13 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

Umm exactly, which is why you lock up Lewis now.

Wait 5 years when hes 29 and you are paying him into his mid 30s and at a higher rate

Or you let some other team pay for his (potentially injury riddled) 30s and play someone younger.

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