The Twins Decision-Making Process or (The Unexpected Virtue of Stubbornness)

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins front office has stuck to their process all season. Has it worked to their advantage?

Image courtesy of Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports

Stubbornness is a polarizing characteristic.

Traditionally, people associate stubbornness as a flaw of character: Close-minded, stagnant, and unable to grow with the ever-changing environment surrounding oneself.

Stubbornness can stunt progression, leading to an adverse reaction that can affect people on a micro or macro scale, depending on the situation. 

On the other hand, stubbornness can be great when blended with a sense of discernment and a strong foundation, especially in decision-making professions where multi-billion-dollar corporations' success and public image are on the line. 

Sound familiar?

When stubbornness leads to success, the decision-maker gets praised for being decisive, focused, and having a clear vision.

Like most things in life, specific decision-makers and corporations' stubbornness should not be considered exclusively good or bad. To think in absolutes is a fault in thought process, especially when analyzing the ever-changing state of professional sports teams.

Notably the 2023 Minnesota Twins.

The narrative behind the Minnesota Twins franchise and specific Twins players resides in a constant state of extreme fluctuation, and much of that flux in narrative resides in the decisions, or lack thereof, made by the front office. 

The Twins front office decision-making process, or lack thereof, has created a new angst amongst Twins fans that has yet to be felt since the front office did essentially nothing to enhance and fortify the World Series-hopeful 2019 Bomba Squad. 

Although the Twins have done relatively nothing to improve this year's roster besides trading Jorge López for Dylan Floro and claiming Jordan Luplow off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, the team benefits from sticking with a handful of players that the majority would have cut bait with long ago.

While this is true, the other end of the spectrum exists, and the Twins have also suffered at the hand of their stagnation.

Has the good outweighed the bad? Let's take a look.

The outcomes manufactured by the Twins stubbornness overlap with the 1967 Spaghetti Western film aptly titled The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, so it feels appropriate to categorize the decisions made as such.

The Good: The Re-emergence of Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán

The prominent cases that illustrate the Twins reaping the benefits of sticking with players when the majority believed they should part with them are the recent performances of Kepler and Pagán. 

Here are Kepler and Pagán's numbers since the end of the All-Star Break:

• Kepler - .297/.344/.576 (.920), 128 PA, 35 H, 9 2B, 8 HR, .280 ISO, 21.1% K%, 150 wRC+ 
• Pagán - 1.04 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 92.1 LOB%, 4.3 HR/FB, 0.52 HR/9, 61 TBF, 17.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 15 SO

Kepler and Pagán have put up elite numbers since the All-Star break, propelling themselves into conversations of being the Twins current best position player and relief pitcher, respectively. 

Unfortunately, that was not the case earlier this season or last season for Pagán, and when discussing Kepler, this hasn't been the case since his breakout season in 2019. 

Kepler and Pagán's turnarounds have been encouraging. 

Although that doesn't guarantee future success, their production since the All-Star game has contributed significantly to the Twins having a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. 

The Twins front office's stubbornness has finally appeared to pay off with Kepler and Pagán, but this, unfortunately, isn't the end of their stubborn ways. 

The Bad: Unwavering Allegiance to Joey Gallo

When the Twins signed Gallo to a one-year $11 million contract last December, a sense of optimism came with the addition.

Many thought Gallo, like Sonny Gray, was a victim of the formidable pressure Yankees fans put on players. Once Gallo returned to a small market team, he could play loosely, thrive, and hit 41 home runs again, as he did for the Rangers in 2017. Right?

Gallo has undoubtedly been better as a member of the Twins than the Yankees, but his numbers are less than inspiring in both cases.

Here are Gallo's first 314 plate appearances with the Yankees compared to his first 313 plate appearances with the Twins:

• Gallo - Yankees - .167/.299/.380 (.679), 314 PA, 44 H, 16 HR, 38.2% K%, .213 ISO, 91 wRC+
• Gallo - Twins - .180/.304/.447 (.751), 313 PA, 48 H, 20 HR, 42.8% K%, .267, 107 wRC+ 

Gallo has been better than many make him out to be and has provided defensive flexibility while hitting the occasional home run. Regardless, the Twins have better options to fulfill his roster spot waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

It is reasonable to think that current Saints players Austin Martin, Chris Williams, Trevor Larnach, Anthony Prato, and potentially even recently promoted to Triple-A prospects Yunior Severino, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and, most notably, Brooks Lee could help the Twins more than Gallo at this moment in the season. 

The Twins have done a great job at blending young hitters with their core veterans this season, but Gallo feels like the last roadblock that is stunting the development of a future full-time contributor like Martin, Larnach, or even Lee. 

Rostering Gallo for the rest of the regular season will likely prove insignificant as the Twins are all but locked into a playoff spot with a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs.

However, suppose the Twins elect to start Gallo over a promising young player like Matt "Cement Bones" Wallner or Alex Kirilloff in a playoff game or prioritize pinch-hitting him for Royce Lewis or Donovan Solano in the late innings of a playoff game when a right-handed relief pitcher enters the game. In that case, flying too close to the sun could make the Twins like Icarus.

The Ugly: Neglecting the Back End of the Bullpen

The way the Twins front office's stubbornness has negatively affected the 2023 team the most is through neglecting the back end of the bullpen.

While the front office choosing not to improve the back-end bullpen should be considered malpractice, their passivity hasn’t come back to haunt yet due to admirable performance from the front-half of the bullpen. 

Highlighted by Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, currently inactive Brock Stewart, Floro, and the previously mentioned Pagán, the Twins, according to Fangraphs, have the 22nd-ranked bullpen generating 2.1 fWAR.

While the combination of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagán, and Floro, to an extent, have performed well, they account for only five-eighths of the bullpen, leaving three bullpen spots relatively unclaimed and lacking production.

Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands currently fill the final three bullpen spots. However, their jobs are in a highly dynamic spot, as all three of these relievers could get optioned back to Triple-A St. Paul at any moment.

A playoff team's sixth-best reliever has to be better than the likes of Balazovic, Winder, and Sands.

The five other American League teams currently owning playoff spots are the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners.

While each team has relief pitching-induced shortcomings, they have established bullpens that most would deem playoff-ready and more well-rounded than the Twins.

To put this into perspective, here is how much fWAR each playoff team's sixth, seventh, and eighth options have generated combined compared to the Twins with seeding:

1. Orioles - Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Nick Vespi (1.5 fWAR)
2. Rangers - Chris Stratton, Brock Burke, Grant Anderson (1.6 fWAR)
3. Twins - Balazovic, Winder, Sands (-0.4 fWAR)
4. Rays - Jake Diekman, Shawn Armstrong, Jacob Lopez (1.1 fWAR)
5. Astros - Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero, Seth Martinez (0.3 fWAR)
6. Mariners - Tayler Saucedo, Isaiah Campbell, Eduard Bazardo (0.5 fWAR)

While some of the advantages appear incremental, it cannot be understated how much less productive the bottom half of the Twins bullpen has performed in comparison to the other playoff-caliber teams in the American League. 

The Twins front office purposely rejected two opportunities to improve and fortify their bullpen by not acquiring a reliable veteran set-up man this past offseason and by not trading for another veteran relief arm to complement the acquisition of Floro.

Electing to have faith in unreliable young relief options like Balazovic, Winder, Sands, Jovani Moran, and Oliver Ortega has proved to be the front office's greatest fault this season.

Will it come back to haunt them in the playoffs? That remains unanswered, but if it does it is essential to note that it was entirely avoidable. 

The Twins front office has expressed a sense of stubbornness regarding roster decisions this season. While it will likely prove to be insignificant the rest of the regular season, it has the risk of being their Achilles heel come the post-season. 

What do you make of the Twins front office's stubbornness? Has it worked in their favor? Do you think they will come to regret it? Comment below.

 

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[RpR]

No system is perfect, but you made good points, at that, look at the Yankee wheeler dealers.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Interesting analysis. I think you did a great job. It will be even more interesting to see what if anything the FO does about the back end of the bullpen going forward. This is no bullpen to bring to a playoff series. I hope they at least bring up Varland to the bullpen, maybe Funderburk, and add Maeda or Ober to the pen as the playoffs arise (if we make them). Also be great if Stewart came back but that's looking less and less likely. 

[Eephus]

I'll tell you who else has stuck to the process for better or worse  -- Gallo. Dig in with left foot -- scratch, scratch, take a couple sort of swings, do an upper body twitch forward back stretchy thing, deep breath in through a crinkled nose, exhale. Strikeout 42% of the time and hope the bat and ball collide on occasion. Repeat.

Results as you say somewhat better than last year but unlikely better than a good number of other players. Sure seems like banking a the ball-bat collision happens at the crucial one or two times is no plan at all.

[Linus]

Pagan and Kepler have been good the second half of the season. Was it worth 3 seasons of poor play from Kepler to get this good half season?  Was it worth a horrible season last year for Pagan to get a better half season?  It’s great if you are eventually right but there is a clear cost for the time it took for these players to finally produce. 

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

Pagan and Kepler have been good the second half of the season. Was it worth 3 seasons of poor play from Kepler to get this good half season?  Was it worth a horrible season last year for Pagan to get a better half season?  It’s great if you are eventually right but there is a clear cost for the time it took for these players to finally produce. 

Gee, you are not a fan of Max Kepler?

LOL

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Speaking to the back end of the bullpen, those numbers will probably be skewed in the playoffs.  The Twins will probably go Grey, Lopez, and one of Ryan/Ober.  This means Maeda, Ryan/Ober, and Keuchel will be in the pen (unless they decide to leave Keuchel off the post season roster for a position player, which is possible).

Considering that Sands and Winder will never pitch in the playoffs, this issue should not be as big of a concern.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Assuming we get to the playoffs, you're absolutely right. Sands, Winder, Ortega, etc. will never pitch in a non-blowout playoff game and probably won't even be on the playoff roster. This is a regular season problem only.

I'd still like to see them give Varland a shot in the pen and maybe the same for Funderburk. Might help us in the regular season and should help us get a better read for next year. 

 

[Linus]

21 minutes ago, RpR said:

Gee, you are not a fan of Max Kepler?

LOL

I actually like Maxs swing and overall athleticism. But let’s be real he has not been good since 2019. 

[Brandon]

I’m fine with Gallo.  He at least has an OPS over .750.  I would prefer him to get his average up to the .220 range.  
 

I’m more surprised by a lack of movement for a bullpen arm.

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

I actually like Maxs swing and overall athleticism. But let’s be real he has not been good since 2019. 

Only Buxton was a better fielder , when he was on the field, than Kepler since 2019, if you ignore Simmons. (Simmons is the best fielding Short Stop the Twins ever had)

Those two gave/give the Twins a superior outfield,; Taylor out there now still gives the Twins top outfield players.

Left field -- ?

[Sjoski]

Excellent Article.....only problem.....it's after the fact.   Brock Beauchamp  had it all figured out in by Feb. 2nd. All we know for sure is how clueless this FO is.

 

 

[Linus]

50 minutes ago, RpR said:

Only Buxton was a better fielder , when he was on the field, than Kepler since 2019, if you ignore Simmons. (Simmons is the best fielding Short Stop the Twins ever had)

Those two gave/give the Twins a superior outfield,; Taylor out there now still gives the Twins top outfield players.

Left field -- ?

I get that you are a Kepler fan. I like Maxs defense also. But he’s playing a bat first position and the hitting just has not been there. It’s not really a controversial argument. 

[RpR]

24 minutes ago, Linus said:

I get that you are a Kepler fan. I like Maxs defense also. But he’s playing a bat first position and the hitting just has not been there. It’s not really a controversial argument. 

Singles becoming doubles,  doubles becoming triples, and triples becoming inside the park home runs,  makes his position a defense first position.

[mikelink45]

Stubborn or asleep at the wheel?  Not impressed with Floro and Luplow.  If that is there big moves it makes me ask - WHY?  If the answers are in house then use them.  Funderburk instead of Floro, Garlick instead of Luplow.  Sorry I cannot give our barely awake FO much credit.  And can you tell me, truthfully, that Stevenson, Williams, Martin, or Larnach could not have given us the production that Gallows has?

[karcherd]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Speaking to the back end of the bullpen, those numbers will probably be skewed in the playoffs.  The Twins will probably go Grey, Lopez, and one of Ryan/Ober.  This means Maeda, Ryan/Ober, and Keuchel will be in the pen (unless they decide to leave Keuchel off the post season roster for a position player, which is possible).

Considering that Sands and Winder will never pitch in the playoffs, this issue should not be as big of a concern.

You seriously think Keuchel should even be in consideration to be on the post reason roster.  We may as well as mail it in if he is on the roster.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Pagan and Kepler have been good the second half of the season. Was it worth 3 seasons of poor play from Kepler to get this good half season?  Was it worth a horrible season last year for Pagan to get a better half season?  It’s great if you are eventually right but there is a clear cost for the time it took for these players to finally produce. 

This pretty much sums it up for me. When we look back at Buxton's career we'll say virtually the same thing. We had him for 14 seasons and got 4 seasons of part-time play from him that were good. Sorry but that hurts in more ways than one.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I get that you are a Kepler fan. I like Maxs defense also. But he’s playing a bat first position and the hitting just has not been there. It’s not really a controversial argument. 

Kepler is having his 2nd best season as a Twin.  There’s no question about these facts.

If we said Kepler, in 2023, will hit .243 BA (career .233)  - strikeout less than 25% of the time - hit 20 HR (in 98 games) potentially 25 for the season - .780 OPS………We would want to trade for him!

Still playing very solid defense as well.

I wanted to DFA him in June……he’s earned respect with the change in his approach at the plate. He hits the ball hard WAY more often than he did the first 3 months……the numbers have come up accordingly.

 

Pagan still drives me crazy - great stuff - loses focus and command about once a month.

 

Gallo’s defensive flexibility & competence on defense is the reason for keeping him, along with clubhouse continuity. He’ll be around through September with the expanded roster and then to watch the games as a non-rostered teammate in October.

 

Not fortifying the Pen at the deadline was disappointing! That said, we need 4 starters for playoffs, maximum: Lopez, Gray, Maeda, Ober

Pen: Ryan - Varland - Kuechel &/or Funderburk - Jax - Duran - Thielbar - Pagan…….7 or 8 guys for playoffs. Possibly only 7 in Pen to keep 15 bats available?

[DocBauer]

I never liked the Gallo signing, though I made excuses why it was a smart flier. And really, it was with questions about Larnach and AK being healthy and Wallner ready to go. I still wouldn't have done it, TRUSTING in Larnach, AK, Wallner, and even Gordon at the time. Isn't that what you do as a mid market team?

For this year, so far, I admit the FO stubbornness for Kepler and Pagan has been right. More than willing to eat previous words. SOMEHOW, SOMEWAY, Kepler is FINALLY  squaring up his bat and hitting the ball HARD. And while HR are great, I mean he's SUDDENLY hitting singles and doubles as well as HR. Is he, 30yr old, SUDDENLY, FINALLY adjusting his approach? Because he's suddenly looking like the player we always thought he might be.

I just can't help but believe Pagan is going to implode every single time I see him come in. That's 2022 and most every season before. But damnit, he's mostly been good for 3 months or more. So changes in stuff, or approach, he's been good. I can't deny that. 

Is that stubborn or smart with those two?

And then there is just stubborn/stupid. The FO was all in with AK and Julien when given opportunity. And to be fair, they have treated Larnach somewhat fair. But they have watched Gallo as a black hole offensive for months now. They FINALLY gave Wallner a shot and he's been producing and playing better defense than predicted. And the toguS producers have been the young guys, along with Jeffers...also a young guy...and the resurgent Kepler and somewhat resurgent Correa. 

And the stubborn portion of their thinking has been holding on to Gallo this damn long thinking snd hoping SOMEHOW he SUDDENLY turns everything around! Its not going to happen. Almost ANY bat from AAA could exceed what he's done the past few months.

The FO did a great job to about 90% of what they COULD have done. They built one of the best and deepest rotations in all of MLB . PERIOD. But that rotation needs support.if 

The offense isn't entirely on the FO, though an approach change is necessary. They ARE approaching a different contact, speed format, but it doesn't happen overnight. But now that the "kids" are starting to make a difference in the lineup,  we can start to see the changes. 

But right NOW, we are seeing either their stubbornness,  OR, misguided attitudes to the pen. I Absolutely believe you bring in various arms to help make a pen. And for a while it sure looked like Stewart was a steal. And maybe DeLeon as well. But they should have been  ADDS, not counted on. 

While I know bullpen arms are hard to predict, the FO, and their scouts, should have been smart enough to taken a shot on THIS GUY. And if we want to re-right history , and look back, there were a couple of arms who were in camp and let go that have had good seasons. And that's more where I'm looking at failure. 

[dxpavelka]

Yes.  Turns out that maybe, just maybe, the guys that get paid to make the decisions actually know more than those who wish they did.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, karcherd said:

You seriously think Keuchel should even be in consideration to be on the post reason roster.  We may as well as mail it in if he is on the roster.

I for one think we should seriously consider putting Keuchel on the post-season roster, unless of course he implodes during September. But with his playoff experience, not to mention his many years of pitching, I think he can help in several ways. He should be an asset. 

[Doctor Wu]

The lack of depth in our bullpen was an issue, and continues to be an issue, and that was never adequately addressed. We were lucky to find some cheap pickups in guys like Brock Stewart in Jose DeLeon, who delivered better than expected, only to lose them to injuries, And of course Alcala never came back as expected and was injured again too. I still think we should try one of those AAA arms like Funderburk, if only to see how they fare at a higher level.  

[karcherd]

22 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I for one think we should seriously consider putting Keuchel on the post-season roster, unless of course he implodes during September. But with his playoff experience, not to mention his many years of pitching, I think he can help in several ways. He should be an asset. 

How can he be an asset, his command is not there consistently, he has had one good outing.  And that was against a team with inexperienced hitters who are more prone to chasing his offspeed offerings just like in AAA.  A team i.e. the Phillies with experienced hitters will not chase and force him into the zone and he does not have hit and miss stuff.  Why do we get so fascinated with these fringey veterans that have nothing left.  Can we raise expectations on this front office to actually bring in players that can contribute and stop with the lottery ticket hopefuls.

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kepler is having his 2nd best season as a Twin.  There’s no question about these facts.

If we said Kepler, in 2023, will hit .243 BA (career .233)  - strikeout less than 25% of the time - hit 20 HR (in 98 games) potentially 25 for the season - .780 OPS………We would want to trade for him!

Still playing very solid defense as well.

I wanted to DFA him in June……he’s earned respect with the change in his approach at the plate. He hits the ball hard WAY more often than he did the first 3 months……the numbers have come up accordingly.

 

Pagan still drives me crazy - great stuff - loses focus and command about once a month.

 

Gallo’s defensive flexibility & competence on defense is the reason for keeping him, along with clubhouse continuity. He’ll be around through September with the expanded roster and then to watch the games as a non-rostered teammate in October.

 

Not fortifying the Pen at the deadline was disappointing! That said, we need 4 starters for playoffs, maximum: Lopez, Gray, Maeda, Ober

Pen: Ryan - Varland - Kuechel &/or Funderburk - Jax - Duran - Thielbar - Pagan…….7 or 8 guys for playoffs. Possibly only 7 in Pen to keep 15 bats available?

Kepler is a frustrating case. For a couple of years He thought he was a pure power hitter, even as many preached to use the whole field. Finally the 2nd half of this year he gets it. With Pagan, the "stuff" was always there, but the focus or drive or whatever was lacking. Gallo will go down as a major mistake, and maybe one of the worst FA signings in Twins history IMO. 

[MABB1959]

37 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Kepler is a frustrating case. For a couple of years He thought he was a pure power hitter, even as many preached to use the whole field. Finally the 2nd half of this year he gets it. With Pagan, the "stuff" was always there, but the focus or drive or whatever was lacking. Gallo will go down as a major mistake, and maybe one of the worst FA signings in Twins history IMO. 

Should say first half of the 2nd half.  He has been better since the All-Star break but he could easily slide back.  Funny but he and Gallo have the most HR's on the team.  Gallo's BA is atrocious, Kepler, .240, is that good?  On this team it is.  Same old conversation every year.

[terrydactyls]

The in-studio analysts on the MLB channel were discussing the Twins after last night's comeback win and their chances in the playoffs.  They felt the Twins would be a scary team in the playoffs because of their starting rotation, decent offense, and the strength of  their bullpen.  As some have pointed out above, a couple starters would probably become bullpen pieces which would give the Twins six solid choices {Duran, Jax Theilbar, Pagan, and two starters -Varland and Ober?).  I'm not agreeing with this view (or disagreeing) but it's interesting that baseball experts have better opinions of the Twins than the local fan base.

[Woodridge Pheasant Farm]

Great write! To bad the FO will probably never see it. Arrogance is also stubbornness and that is what hurts any business in upper management (Or any level of management for that part) 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, karcherd said:

How can he be an asset, his command is not there consistently, he has had one good outing.  And that was against a team with inexperienced hitters who are more prone to chasing his offspeed offerings just like in AAA.  A team i.e. the Phillies with experienced hitters will not chase and force him into the zone and he does not have hit and miss stuff.  Why do we get so fascinated with these fringey veterans that have nothing left.  Can we raise expectations on this front office to actually bring in players that can contribute and stop with the lottery ticket hopefuls.

Don't compare Keuchel to Ober, Ryan, Jax, or Duran.  He needs to be looked at compared to Winder or Sand.  When you add in his experience, if Keuchel pitches just ok the rest of the way, he most assuredly will take a roster spot from one of those guys.

[David Maro]

FO has made more mistakes than people want to admit. You have the Buxton extension and resigning Correa. They knew what they had with Buxton for years now. When Correa opted out,should of said goodbye. Yes plays good defense,but where is the bat. Do you pay 33 million a year for defense only. He may be unhappy because he had to sign a lesser deal than the Giants or Mets. Why sign Gallo at all,team needed a RH bat,not another LH bat. That 11 million could have been used for a bat and a BP arm. The trade deadline they probably were told no by Polhad on adding money to the payroll. 

[karcherd]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Don't compare Keuchel to Ober, Ryan, Jax, or Duran.  He needs to be looked at compared to Winder or Sand.  When you add in his experience, if Keuchel pitches just ok the rest of the way, he most assuredly will take a roster spot from one of those guys.

I doubt Winder or Sands will be on the playoff roster either.  Again Keuchel has had one good outing in the last two plus years and you want to count on him in the playoffs.  And potentially in a relief role that he has not been in for over 10 years.  Can we set some higher expectations. start bringing up a couple of guys from St. Paul and see what they can do.  They would at least have some more potential upside.  Keuchel is toast and has nothing left in the tank, and no other teams were after him.  Why do we keep going after lottery tickets, that is not how you build a winning team.