Twins Struggles Against Lefties Tied to Byron Buxton's Streakiness

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers in recent years. There are multiple reasons for those struggles, but Byron Buxton's streakiness is the main culprit.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

In 2019, the Twins mashed their way to the home run record by blitzing starting pitchers and compiling substantial offensive numbers. Obviously, there have been multiple changes to the Twins since that season, but one growing issue is the team's inability to hit left-handed pitching. Byron Buxton has been one of the team's most critical right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. Multiple factors have impacted his performance, including knee and back issues that have plagued him in 2023.

Let's look back over the last three seasons to see how the team fared against lefties, what right-handed hitters should have been producing, and how Buxton's streakiness tied to the team's output. 

2021 Season
Only two AL teams had a lower OPS against left-handed pitchers than the Twins during the 2021 season. Minnesota's team OPS was nearly 20 points lower against lefties than righties. Besides Buxton, the Twins had multiple right-handed bats that should have done damage against lefties, including Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz. Sano struggled against lefties with an OPS over 100 points lower than his career mark. Donaldson and Cruz destroyed Southpaws as both posted an OPS above .900 in their final season with the Twins. Polanco is better at batting from the left side, but he posted an .803 OPS against lefties. 

Buxton was limited to 61 games during the 2021 season but still finished second on the team, according to rWAR. He played three total games between May 7th and August 26th. He ended the year with a .997 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but he was unavailable for a large chunk of the season while the team struggled to a last-place finish. Minnesota's overall numbers would look better if injuries hadn't sidelined Buxton for most of the season. 

2022 Season
Minnesota added Carlos Correa, a powerful right-handed bat, leading into the 2022 season, and the club saw some offensive improvement. Correa started slowly but continued to hit well against lefties and finished the season with a .945 OPS. Jose Miranda compiled substantial numbers during his rookie season and posted a .512 SLG against Southpaws. As a team, the Twins finished with the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers while ranking 17th overall in wRC+. 

Buxton was one of baseball's best hitters in the first half on the way to being selected to his first All-Star Game. He posted an .824 OPS in the first half with 11 doubles, three triples, and 23 home runs. Buxton was also among the team's best hitters against lefties with a .917 OPS in 114 PA. Unfortunately, he was limited to 19 games in the second half while the Twins fell out of contention in the AL Central. 

2023 Season
Entering the season, the Twins hoped Correa, Buxton, and Miranda would build off their 2022 success to form a trio of lefty killers in the middle of the line-up. Miranda has been ineffective because of a shoulder injury that has bothered him since spring training. Correa and Buxton have also yet to live up to their high expectations. Evaluators expected Correa to be among the AL's leaders in WAR, but he finished a disappointing first half as a candidate for Least Valuable Player. Minnesota has reached a new low against lefties this season, with the non-contending Rockies being the only club with a lower wRC+ and OPS. 

The Twins shifted Buxton to DH this season in hopes of having him available more regularly. He is on pace to play over 100 games for the second time in his big-league career, but his performance has continued to struggle. He has hit .162/.244/.338 (.582) with seven extra-base hits and a 28-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86 PA versus lefties. There have been long stretches where Buxton has looked lost at the plate, and the team's lefty struggles have increased while his bat has gone cold. 

Do you feel like Buxton's streakiness is to blame? Will the Twins be able to solve their offensive woes against lefties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Mike Sixel]

Streakiness is a very polite word for what he's been this year.....

[laloesch]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Streakiness is a very polite word for what he's been this year.....

I was about to make the same remark.  Would Gallo's performance so far be considered streaky as well?  I really do hope they don't start penciling in Gallo, Buxton, and Taylor on the lineup card again with the roster crunch coming.  They might as well forfeit those games if that's the plan.  It's hard to generate scoring runs with 3 - sub .200 hitters in the lineup.

[dberthia]

Fixed the headline for you:

Twins Struggles Against Lefties Tied to Byron Buxton's Ineptitude and Futility

[CRF]

Easy guys...this is our 5 tool superstar! He's got a hammer, screwdriver, pliers, wrench, and a hacksaw. All in a nice little plastic toolbox! 

[Karbo]

I would say Buxtons struggles this year are a major part but baseball is a team game. Rarely does 1 single player make that much of a difference. They brought in Farmer and Solano to help against lefties and in the past Garver has hit lefties very well. Missing Miranda againsr lefties is another minus. Factored in with Correa that would be 5 above avg. hitters against lefties. So IMO its a team breakdown more than in individual one.

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Streakiness is a very polite word for what he's been this year.....

to be more clear.....I think he's still got a good hitter in there somewhere. It's about health, IMO.

[DJL44]

It also didn't help when Royce Lewis got hurt again. He was killing LHP.

[jkcarew]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

to be more clear.....I think he's still got a good hitter in there somewhere. It's about health, IMO.

I don’t know how good…but better than this.

[USAFChief]

So in your 3 season look, Buxton has OPS's against LHers of 

.997,

.917,

.582

I think you meant to say he's been a problem in 2023, and wasn't available enough in '21 and '22.

 

 

[jkcarew]

In 2022 with Buxton playing only 92 games, and a hodgepodge at DH, The DH and CF positions combined for bWAR of 2.4. This season, with Buxton at DH full time and MAT at CF (basically) full time, that number is -0.4.

If Buxton was hitting this year at career average (about 110-ish OPS+), the number wouldn’t be that much better…maybe up to zero or 0.1. And that’s with MAT over-performing slightly.

Again, this could NOT have been a plan. If it was, it was literally a plan to be worse.

[mikelink45]

Put him in CF, fix the DH spot, and if he cannot survive CF for the rest of the season what do we lose?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

In 2022 with Buxton playing only 92 games, and a hodgepodge at DH, The DH and CF positions combined for bWAR of 2.4. This season, with Buxton at DH full time and MAT at CF (basically) full time, that number is -0.4.

If Buxton was hitting this year at career average (about 110-ish OPS+), the number wouldn’t be that much better…maybe up to zero or 0.1. And that’s with MAT over-performing slightly.

Again, this could NOT have been a plan. If it was, it was literally a plan to be worse.

Outside a handful of people, does anyone think this is the plan? No chance. Zero. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

to be more clear.....I think he's still got a good hitter in there somewhere. It's about health, IMO.

 Unhealthy and never going to be healthy thus never going to hit.  Throw in cant play D and what you have is a wasted roster spot.  This is Buxton.

[Eephus]

Buxton I am at least holding out hope he can become a legit MLB hitter again. I'm becoming obsessed with Gallo as the one to blame. Since getting traded to the Yankees in 2021, he's been about a .700 OPS hitter with 40% strikeouts in about 700 ABs. Who could possibly think he is going to get any better than he is now. To quote my smarter brother, This is who he is.

[tony&rodney]

Byron has changed his swing. He looks like his swing is tuned to avoid aggravating an injury even as he still takes a healthy hack. His approach can only be termed befuddling. The number of pitches taken right down the middle seem commonplace, even if the actual number may be less. The infielders play all the way back on the edge of the grass because Buck no longer wants to waste his legs on a bunt single. Buxton can still hit multiple 450+ homers in the same game but I know opponents look at his talent and current predicament and feel a little bit sorry for him, except when he is in the box against their team. He had a break from the All Star Game and now another break due to paternity leave. Will anything change?

Buxton's breakdown is a part of the failure to hit left-handed pitchers, but I agree with those who mention the troubles of Correa, Farmer, Miranda, and others as equal contributions.

[nicksaviking]

I think there’s a broader issue here, because basically ALL of the the Twins league-wide known names are streaky. Not just Buxton, but Correa, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco and Vazquez.

There’s no Kent Hrbek, Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter or even a Michael Cuddyer who for their careers basically hit the same all year long.

Seriously, look at these guys’ career splits by month, it’s a roller coaster ride. Maybe you could use this to plan ahead, but these guys all run somewhat predictably cold and hot.

[Paul Henkels]

I wonder if his lack of hitting has something to do with him not playing in the field and causing him not having his head in the game.  Can he possibly play left field or 1st base (with Kiriloff moving to left) to  try to get his head into the game?  DH takes a different perspective for players as opposed to being in the entire game.

[Peter]

Now with newborns-expect buxton to go on tear rest of season. Just a hunch 

[HoskenPowell]

Buxton

Correa

Gallo

Miranda

There is your failures against LH pitching.   Plain and simple.

[HoskenPowell]

Just now, HoskenPowell said:

Buxton

Correa

Gallo

Miranda

There is your failures against LH pitching.   Plain and simple.

I know Gallo is LH and was expected to strike out a lot.   But 2/3 of the time is ridiculous.