Expect a Boring Trade Deadline for the Minnesota Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

August 1st is quickly approaching and the Minnesota Twins are leading the AL Central. They should be expected to win the division, and that could be argued as true even without reinforcements. They will bring some in, but don’t expect the big splashes.

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

A season ago Derek Falvey and Thad Levine swung some of the biggest trades in franchise history. They acquired Sonny Gray before the season, sending top pitching prospect Chase Petty to Cincinnati. They flipped Taylor Rogers on the doorstep of Opening Day to acquire Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Then at the deadline they went gangbusters adding Tyler Mahle, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge Lopez.

The trades the front office made prior to the season have worked out well for the Twins, but the group they made at the deadline have virtually all blown up. Mahle blew out his arm. Lopez has often looked lost. While Fulmer was fine, he faded down the stretch. Aside from the Baltimore deal, none of those swaps were all the egregious when considering track record and future value. Still though, even with a sound process, Minnesota has to feel a bit more cautious.

Then there’s the reality that Rocco Baldelli’s roster doesn’t have many openings. Where are the Twins going to play new faces?

Would Paul Goldschmidt or Cody Bellinger find their way into a regular rotation? Sure they would. Do the Twins really want to part with the prospect capital and further complicate a left-hand heavy outfield, or move Alex Kirilloff around the diamond? Max Kepler has played right field all year in spite of Matt Wallner’s emergence, and that is a swap that could have been made internally.

Left field is manned by Joey Gallo and whatever other rotational outfielder figures in. Michael A. Taylor is stretched as an every day player, but his defense has been exceptional with Byron Buxton unable to contribute defensively. Buxton himself blocks the designated hitter spot. Second base has been taken over by Edouard Julien with Jorge Polanco coming back. No one is bumping Carlos Correa off of shortstop, and the starting rotation may be among the best in baseball.

While Minnesota has succumbed to a level of mediocrity for most of the year, the reality is that it’s a byproduct of already-talented players underperforming. The Twins simply don’t have enough positional flexibility, or openings, for the front office to add like crazy this season.

It still stands to reason that a right-handed bat makes sense. Ideally, that player would also play the outfield, and come with some team control. The Twins haven’t been keen on trading for rentals, and someone like Dylan Carlson would fit that bill nicely. He’s still going to command a premium being under team control through 2026, but Carlson is just a 24-year-old with league average offensive numbers and can play strong defense.

Beyond that type of addition, it makes sense for Baldelli to be given more help in the bullpen. With both Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar still on the injured list, the group of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Jorge Lopez need more help. Emilio Pagan has rebounded nicely, but finding a way to avoid rostering Cole Sands or cycling through arms has to be a goal.

The Twins aren’t going to go and grab the best closer on the market, but getting someone capable of pitching in high-leverage situations, and propping up the overall ability of the bullpen, seems like a logical ask. Those types are always plentiful, and they shouldn’t cost much in terms of exchanged assets.

Minnesota is absolutely looking to play well into the playoffs. Just because they have a weak schedule the rest of the way doesn’t mean they’ll coast and be content with where they are now. They aren’t going to blow the doors off the competition at the deadline, and their ability to win in October centers much more around the players already in the clubhouse. Inserting Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco back into the lineup should help. The rotation will continue to give them a chance. How far they go from there is up to the performers needing to show up.

I’m not sure what should be considered a well-executed trade deadline for Minnesota this year, but temper expectations if you think big names will be acquired.

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[mickster]

I completely agree with this.   Those wanting a big trade, remember that someone has to go for a new face to come in.

[Ted Schwerzler]

21 minutes ago, mickster said:

I completely agree with this.   Those wanting a big trade, remember that someone has to go for a new face to come in.

Not to mention, the big trades they made last year are almost universally disliked because they have aged poorly (despite being good moves at the time).

[Nashvilletwin]

20 minutes ago, mickster said:

I completely agree with this.   Those wanting a big trade, remember that someone has to go for a new face to come in.

Not only someone, but more likely more than just one and high value. There is no veteran player on the Twins, other than Gray, who is tradable and could return us, let’s say, a controllable starting calibre RH CFer.  So to get that, we’d be moving multiple very valuable prospects.

The ChiSox retooled today with two really good prospects we will face for many years. The Angels could make that trade because as a cash rich big market team they can replace valuable prospects with FAs.  We are not that.

Let’s not mortgage our future by trying to upgrade this roster with one very expensive (in prospect capital) swing for the fences.

 

[CRF]

Spot on. They're not going to do much of anything. Certainly nothing significant. Maybe a couple minor deals. 

[farmerguychris]

Give me a right handed corner outfielder who can hit lefties and maybe another left handed pen pitcher.

 

[4twinsJA]

Agree, don't see Twins making big trade. I would settle for some clearing of the bottom of 40 man roster and releasing/trading some players at St. Paul to give others an opportunity. Get rid of Gallo, going to have to eat rest of salary but time admit mistake and move on.

[Nashvilletwin]

On one hand, the Gray for Petty trade is looking like a win-win type of deal for both teams: Gray has performed very well here and Petty is developing very nicely (last time I checked) into a pitcher consistent with his draft status.

I can’t knock the FO for that result.  However, on the other hand,  if we knew we would never win a playoff game during Gray’s tenure here, would that change the calculus at all? I know it’s hard to look at trades in that way - in a vacuum that trade looks great; however, if the ultimate goal isn’t reached and the future is then somewhat mortgaged, then in a broader sense, the trade might not look as good.

Let’s hope that’s not the case, but IF it comes to pass, I’d think I’d rather have Petty now than the past two seasons of Gray.  Here’s hoping that Gray wins one or more playoff games this year to make that trade really pay off!

[bighat]

26 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Give me a right handed corner outfielder who can hit lefties.

 

Who are you prepared to give up? 

[Dman]

IMO it would be nice if they could move Gallo off the roster.  That would be an addition by subtraction trade it allows room for Larnach and Wallner who are comparable hitters and allows Gordon to come back on the 40 man without losing anyone.

I am not in love with the Lane Thomas platoon idea but given the Twins have no right handed outfielder's close to ready if Washington isn't asking for something outrageous I could see that as a positive move for the team.

Not sure if other teams would be willing to build a package around Severino or Prato or Helman or Williams or Stevenson type players but they are rule V guys with interesting stats.  Probably would need more but they could also be good addins to get a deal done.

Have to wait and see what the FO can do I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

I also don't expect much. Heck, I don't even expect them to do little obvious things.....

[gunnarthor]

19 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

On one hand, the Gray for Petty trade is looking like a win-win type of deal for both teams: Gray has performed very well here and Petty is developing very nicely (last time I checked) into a pitcher consistent with his draft status.

I can’t knock the FO for that result.  However, on the other hand,  if we knew we would never win a playoff game during Gray’s tenure here, would that change the calculus at all? I know it’s hard to look at trades in that way - in a vacuum that trade looks great; however, if the ultimate goal isn’t reached and the future is then somewhat mortgaged, then in a broader sense, the trade might not look as good.

Let’s hope that’s not the case, but IF it comes to pass, I’d think I’d rather have Petty now than the past two seasons of Gray.  Here’s hoping that Gray wins one or more playoff games this year to make that trade really pay off!

The trade in a vacuum made sense. The Twins moved a high upside/high risk pitcher for a good pitcher now. It was a pretty obvious "win now" trade. But the problem was that we made a "win now" trade and finished below .500. The FO didn't do the other things that were needed to make the trade make sense. So, knowing what we know now, I'd have rather hung onto Petty.

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, bighat said:

Who are you prepared to give up? 

Left handed corner outfielders that can’t hit righties?  Anyone?  Bueller?

We don’t need big moves to not be boring. The first trade was simple but kinda stunning, odd none of insiders sniffed it out. It’s not a boring move. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd make that Petty for Gray trade 100x out of 100  opportunities. 100.

Every OF got hurt last year, they literally started their 7-9th best options last year for multiple games. I'm not sure how anyone prepares for that. They tried to do other things (Mahle and Lopez) to fill in other holes, those didn't work. It's not like they didn't try, they just butchered those two deals (not that there were many other options other than Mahle).

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

The trade in a vacuum made sense. The Twins moved a high upside/high risk pitcher for a good pitcher now. It was a pretty obvious "win now" trade. But the problem was that we made a "win now" trade and finished below .500. The FO didn't do the other things that were needed to make the trade make sense. So, knowing what we know now, I'd have rather hung onto Petty.

Right, but there’s another year of win now with Gray. So far, still above .500 and making the playoffs. 🤞 

Check with me in 3 years on Petty. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

As for this year....

I think they'll get one or two more RPs, likely for Severino or Prato or Larnach. I'm hoping they DFA Gallo....they've clearly done everything they could to give him a shot the last week (CF and 1B), and it still isn't working. Just putting Wallner in left over him is worth a win or three. The elephant in the room remains Buxton. I'd put him in CF, and if he can't play there, really, then I'd IL him. Put Julien at DH, Polanco at 2B, and Lee, Prato, or Severino at 3B until Lewis returns (it hurts my brain they aren't using a legit 3B for a month+ during a playoff chase).

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, bighat said:

Who are you prepared to give up? 

Anybody in Wichita not named Schobel, Lee, Raya, Festa for starters.

Also anybody in St. Paul not named Camargo,

And probably many more in Cedar Rapids.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Not to mention, the big trades they made last year are almost universally disliked because they have aged poorly (despite being good moves at the time).

Hindsight is always dangerous.   The Jorge Lopez trade last year was one most liked.  Noone say Cano coming.   The Mahle trade was well recieved at the time.   We have a logjam now, so Steer and CES would be here at the expense of who?   Looking back putting Miranda and Gordon in the trade would have been better.   

[gunnarthor]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

Right, but there’s another year of win now with Gray. So far, still above .500 and making the playoffs. 🤞 

Check with me in 3 years on Petty. 

 

Sure, it might still work out. But we could have held onto Petty, still sucked, and traded him after another year of development. The Twins sucked in 2021 - they were last in the Central and finished 20 GB. They weren't one player away. They weren't snake bit by injuries. They had arguably the worst pitching staff in Twins history (staff combined for 89 ERA+ and -0.1 WAR) and they traded Berrios. And they didn't do enough. Adding Gray made sense. The Paddack/Pagen trade "made sense", too.  Just didn't work out the way we wanted. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, mickster said:

Hindsight is always dangerous.   The Jorge Lopez trade last year was one most liked.  Noone say Cano coming.   The Mahle trade was well recieved at the time.   We have a logjam now, so Steer and CES would be here at the expense of who?   Looking back putting Miranda and Gordon in the trade would have been better.   

This site would have ripped them to shreds for trading Miranda last year.....shreds. 

Cano was brutal here, agreed, no one thought he'd be like this. If other teams thought he'd be this good, MN could have traded him for a ton a good prospect at the deadline, not thrown him into a deal.

[tony&rodney]

What does San Diego want for Hader? They have indicated that they are holding him, but there may be a package to pry him loose. What is reasonable?

[farmerguychris]

30 minutes ago, bighat said:

Who are you prepared to give up? 

Kepler or Gallo may be cut if my option. We have enough left handed corner outfielders in the minors who are ready to step in at the big club level and we wouldn't miss much production by having Larnach or Wallner in there instead.

[mickster]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This site would have ripped them to shreds for trading Miranda last year.....shreds. 

Cano was brutal here, agreed, no one thought he'd be like this. If other teams thought he'd be this good, MN could have traded him for a ton a good prospect at the deadline, not thrown him into a deal.

Agree on the backlash in trading Miranda last year.   This year, not as much.   

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Rental relief pitching is usually fairly cheap, and adding depth is generally a good move. I expect them to go heavy on cheap rental players, but adding a guy like Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas could shore up the outfield for 2024, even if it would cost multiple top-10 guys.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1) To anybody nervous about making moves this year because last year's moves did not work out the way you would have liked, there is a reason why you are posting here and not working for an MLB club.  Your trade currency is people, not robots or baseball cards.  You can't assume everything works or that you will win every move (unless you are Tampa Bay).

2) Buxton, Correa, Ober, Ryan, and Duran are probably the only untouchable names on the roster.  Everyone else could be had for the right price.  That doesn't mean those other players will be traded, but they would be in a discussions (the Twins would not turn down Gray and Kiriloff for Spencer Strider for example.)

3) Team culture plays a much larger role than is ever publicly discussed.  Moves made will impact the clubhouse and on field play.

4) I have said this elsewhere, do not downplay the return of Lewis, Polanco, Thielbar, and Stewart.  That is a huge shift in roster makeup.
 

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lee, Prato, or Severino at 3B until Lewis returns (it hurts my brain they aren't using a legit 3B for a month+ during a playoff chase).

I'd rather just use Farmer and Castro there for the month.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I'd rather just use Farmer and Castro there for the month.

Neither can hit....why? 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

The ChiSox retooled today with two really good prospects we will face for many years. The Angels could make that trade because as a cash rich big market team they can replace valuable prospects with FAs.  We are not that.

 

I would prefer to use prospects we could lose in the rule 5 maybe 1 other minor prospect.  The prospects Chicago got back other than the catcher who is still young is ok but not game changers at this point.  If we can say one thing about the Twins is they are developing prospects out of the draft frequently,  we need to hit more on the talent we are acquiring.  But I would consider Gray a hit,  Lopez also (not quite as much but have multiple years of control now) and maeda as well.   Mahle and Lopez were obvious duds.  

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Neither can hit....why? 

I don't trust a rookie (especially Prato or Severino) to immediately come in and produce at the plate. Both Castro and Farmer can field well enough to hold down 3B and in a platoon role they can provide enough offense for the short term. I also don't want to start the clock on Lee if they're going to send him back down when Lewis returns.

I would move both Severino and Lee to St. Paul. I expect the Twins will make that move after the trade deadline, assuming they are both still in the organization.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Not to mention, the big trades they made last year are almost universally disliked because they have aged poorly (despite being good moves at the time).

The perception that getting Brock Stewart and Royce Lewis back will 'feel like a great trade' might be valid but won't placate many fans in the meantime. Thus, yesterday's trade.