Twins 4, Brewers 2: Ober, Correa, Finish the Crew Early

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

huh? That seems just weird to continue jerking around Larnach like that.

Small sample but since he's been back from St Paul his OPS has been .561.  Maybe they have some specific things they want him to work on, out of the limelight.

We read posters begging for "accountability" and, while maybe you aren't one of them, this move could be viewed in that light.  Produce, or face replacement.  Too much pressure, and only 7 games?  Post-season play, should the team reach that point, is all about produce or go home.

He'll be back, hopefully more productive.

[SwainZag]

42 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

huh? That seems just weird to continue jerking around Larnach like that.

Anyway, yeah I heard Gladden say that Buxton was running full sprints before the game, max effort, and expected Buxton to be activated in the next day or two.

If Buck is ready to come off the IL, what else do you do?  Your only real other options are cutting someone.

[Eephus]

Larnach's hit looked like it could have been caught. Gallo's obviously should have been caught. Great to see a W today.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

huh? That seems just weird to continue jerking around Larnach like that.

Anyway, yeah I heard Gladden say that Buxton was running full sprints before the game, max effort, and expected Buxton to be activated in the next day or two.

I'll be far more excited when he doing those max effort sprints.... in CF.... during games.

I'm actually not missing him much at DH. I've enjoyed the positional flexibility of DH being open and honestly think Julian will prove to be the superior DH in the not-to-distant future.

 

[darwin22]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

He was out of the 5th inning with a double play grounder, giving up only 1 run. But the infield botched the double play, which would have ended the inning, and 3 runs score. Keep Varland in the rotation, let Maeda build up to enter the pen, and cut Pagan.

I was NOT advocating for Maeda over Varland.  Saying that, I see the front office wanting/hoping Maeda can regain his form as a SP so they could then use him as trade bait to bolster the bullpen.  I want Varland in the rotation, but he's got to pitch better/get deeper in games.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

10th rounder from 2019 who's 25 now and mowing 'em down in high-A.  Oh joy.

That’s about what trading a AAA reliever who’s been DFA will get you. 

[lukeduke1980]

Correa's foot must be doing okay so that's good news

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

If Buck is ready to come off the IL, what else do you do?  Your only real other options are cutting someone.

I didn’t realize his numbers weren’t that great, so it makes sense to some degree. 

[wabene]

5 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I approve of the recent Duran usage.

Agreed. Overall the pen is not being overworked. Credit to management and the rotation. They are using Duran like the weapon he is. Squeeze as many wins out of him as you can.

One thing I'm looking for this year is to be strong at season's end, no limping into the playoffs as has been the case in recent trips to the post-season. 

[UK Twin]

5 hours ago, Eephus said:

Larnach's hit looked like it could have been caught. Gallo's obviously should have been caught. Great to see a W today.

It was only a matter of time before Gallo popped one up so high it would cause complete chaos and confusion on the ground! 😂

[Peter]

Huge 2 game sweep and now 3.5 game lead!!! Need to keep it up and go 3-1 hopefully 4-0 against Detroit.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

I was NOT advocating for Maeda over Varland.  Saying that, I see the front office wanting/hoping Maeda can regain his form as a SP so they could then use him as trade bait to bolster the bullpen.  I want Varland in the rotation, but he's got to pitch better/get deeper in games.

Why not just use Maeda in the BP?

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Bailey Ober continues to show that he belongs. Resilient after coughing up a couple homers, he stopped the damage, then put up a bunch more zeroes. So nice to have five starters that can each do this on a given day.

I've becoming very impressed with Ober, after being somewhat skeptical last year. As you noted, he has done what it takes to stay on the team. The fact that he gave up 2 early home runs, but didn't get rattled and pitched a very effective game, was very impressive. Good mentality for a pitcher to have. Glad to have him!

[Whitey333]

Twins jacking around like they do with Larnach is another example of how poorly they develop and treat young players IMO.  They jack around with Juluen, wallner, and so many others in the past.  Larnach isn't great but I believe he us still second in RBIs on the team.  It seems once they get here they play sporadically, are pinch hit for, or benched for some veterans that are grossly underperformed. I would take any of them over Kepler

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Twins jacking around like they do with Larnach is another example of how poorly they develop and treat young players IMO.  They jack around with Juluen, wallner, and so many others in the past.  Larnach isn't great but I believe he us still second in RBIs on the team.  It seems once they get here they play sporadically, are pinch hit for, or benched for some veterans that are grossly underperformed. I would take any of them over Kepler

Larnach is 13th on the team in wRC+.  Why should that level of performance guarantee him a roster spot?

What roster move would you have made instead?  Are you going DFA Kepler / Gallo / Salano / Farmer or MAT instead of sending Larnach down.  Julien has been one of our best Offensive players and it makes sense that he be on the roster while Polanco is on the IL.  Castro has been valuable in a number of ways.  So, what would you have done?

1	Matt Wallner	215
2	Alex Kirilloff	143
3	Edouard Julien	139
4	Joey Gallo	124
5	Ryan Jeffers	119
6	Donovan Solano	117
7	Byron Buxton	114
8	Royce Lewis	110
9	Jorge Polanco	104
10	Kyle Farmer	103
11	Carlos Correa	101
12	Michael A. Taylor	97
13	Trevor Larnach	94
14	Willi Castro	94
15	Kyle Garlick	78
16	Max Kepler	76
17	Jose Miranda	66
18	Christian Vazquez	59

[2wins87]

Jax, Stewart, and Duran, in some order, should be a gauntlet for opposing teams.  I have a lot of trust in all of them.

Duran is obviously great.

Stewart is currently on 8 straight appearances without allowing a walk, which was really only his only issue initially.

I don't think the struggles were all just bad luck for Jax early on, but he was never broken.  He needed a pitch mix change, and he's accomplished that now.  The sweeper usage is now around 50% after being at 70% early in the year, and he's increasingly mixed in a cutter which has probably improved as a pitch as he's gotten back his feel for it.  It's been harder for opposing hitters to spoil his sweeper and he's had an easier time getting ahead and not having to get so deep into counts all the time.

His fastball has also gone from being incredibly ineffective early to incredibly effective lately, and I'm not sure how much of that is just luck.  Probably the cutter helps to keep hitters off the fastball.

They could really use a healthy Thielbar for spots in lineups stacked with good lefites, but I think Moran is good in the role he's in, and I do think Lopez needs some fixing but I would hope he can get back to the point of playing a similar role.

If the offense can continue giving them some more 2 and 3 run leads rather than just 1 run leads they should be pretty well set up to hold down those leads.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Larnach is 13th on the team in wRC+.  Why should that level of performance guarantee him a roster spot?

What roster move would you have made instead?  Are you going DFA Kepler 

Yes. Larnach deserves a roster spot more than Kepler.

[joefish]

Earlier this spring I heard  the slumping Correa tell a reporter to check back in with him later in the summer when it starts to warm up. Insinuating that he would warm up with the weather.

It's too bad it took so long, if this is him warming up.  2.5  months? $$$

[Jocko87]

15 hours ago, darwin22 said:

I was NOT advocating for Maeda over Varland.  Saying that, I see the front office wanting/hoping Maeda can regain his form as a SP so they could then use him as trade bait to bolster the bullpen.  I want Varland in the rotation, but he's got to pitch better/get deeper in games.

I think building him up as a starter makes the most sense because it opens the most options for when they do bring him back.  I could see Varland moving to the bullpen for the stretch run, Meada pairing with the rotating long bullpen guy, Meada as the long bullpen guy, short bullpen guy, opener guy or trade guy.  All of those are possible plus some I'm not thinking of by building as a starter.

I have to say, I'm intrigued by the thought of Varland in the pen for a stretch run.  I don't think there are any innings limitations for him but he might sit at an angry 99-100 in a short stint.  His disposition seems perfect for it too.  Probably wouldn't need 5 starters in the post season so it would make sense from a roster standpoint too.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Larnach is 13th on the team in wRC+.  Why should that level of performance guarantee him a roster spot?

What roster move would you have made instead?  Are you going DFA Kepler / Gallo / Salano / Farmer or MAT instead of sending Larnach down.  Julien has been one of our best Offensive players and it makes sense that he be on the roster while Polanco is on the IL.  Castro has been valuable in a number of ways.  So, what would you have done?

1	Matt Wallner	215
2	Alex Kirilloff	143
3	Edouard Julien	139
4	Joey Gallo	124
5	Ryan Jeffers	119
6	Donovan Solano	117
7	Byron Buxton	114
8	Royce Lewis	110
9	Jorge Polanco	104
10	Kyle Farmer	103
11	Carlos Correa	101
12	Michael A. Taylor	97
13	Trevor Larnach	94
14	Willi Castro	94
15	Kyle Garlick	78
16	Max Kepler	76
17	Jose Miranda	66
18	Christian Vazquez	59

Well based on that Graph I'd say the obvious answer is DFA Kepler.  Where was Correa at 10 days ago? How much did his wRC+ rise in the past 10 games? Larnach is closer to being above avg than Kepler is to being just avg.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Yes. Larnach deserves a roster spot more than Kepler.

I wouldn't mind if they DFAed Kepler but that is not without ramifications.  Other players probably would not react well to one of the longest tenured players on the team being cut in that matter.   Especially given Larnach's performance is just not all that different from Kepler's if we consider Kepler's defense in the equation.  It also could be the death of his career and other players are going to be sympathetic and biased.  It also a permanent move.  Depth will be lost.  It's a somewhat reckless move given the much safer alternative of optioning Larnach.

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I wouldn't mind if they DFAed Kepler but that is not without ramifications.  Other players probably would not react well to one of the longest tenured players on the team being cut in that matter.   Especially given Larnach's performance is just not all that different from Kepler's if we consider Kepler's defense in the equation.  It also could be the death of his career and other players are going to be sympathetic and biased.  It also a permanent move.  Depth will be lost.  It's a somewhat reckless move given the much safer alternative of optioning Larnach.

Guys may miss him in the clubhouse or something, but they all understand they're in a performance based business. I could just as easily argue that there's probably some players on the team that aren't happy he's still on the team. If you're not performing, and you're holding the team back from succeeding, there are plenty of players that will be upset with you getting chance after chance, and letting the team down. Not just the guys who's places you're taking, either. The players know who's good and who's not. If the players think Larnach, or Wallner, give them a better chance to win, there's going to be some that are upset the Twins refuse to move on and bring up the better players.

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Guys may miss him in the clubhouse or something, but they all understand they're in a performance based business. I could just as easily argue that there's probably some players on the team that aren't happy he's still on the team. If you're not performing, and you're holding the team back from succeeding, there are plenty of players that will be upset with you getting chance after chance, and letting the team down. Not just the guys who's places your taking, either. The players know who's good and who's not. If the players think Larnach, or Wallner, give them a better chance to win, there's going to be some that are upset the Twins refuse to move on and bring up the better players.

You might be right.  None of us really knows but I tend to believe players are going to be very sympathetic to career preservation.  That's the boat they are all in.  Sure, they like to win but the opportunity for enormous money is their common interest.  

Kepler has proven to be an average or even slightly above average player.  DFAing a proven player at this point in the season for an unproven rookie is questionable.   Players definitely feel you earn the right to be there and Kepler has earned the right as compared to a player with 600 major league ABs and a career 2 WAR.   Let me say again, it would not bother me one bit if they DFAed Kepler.  I have been advocating trading him since last year.  However, I also understand why they optioned Larnach instead of DFAing Kepler.  Also keep in mind this tangent started with someone bitching about them "jacking around" Larnach.   He has not earned the right to be here over a proven veteran just yet.  I wish he would.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Well based on that Graph I'd say the obvious answer is DFA Kepler. 

Sir, that’s an eye chart. Still says DFA Kepler.

Sir, that’s the Oakland As attendance graph. Doesn’t matter, still says DFA Kepler. 

Sir, this is a Wendy’s. What did I say? DFA Kepler. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You might be right.  None of us really knows but I tend to believe players are going to be very sympathetic to career preservation.  That's the boat they are all in.  Sure, they like to win but the opportunity for enormous money is their common interest.  

Kepler has proven to be an average or even slightly above average player.  DFAing a proven player at this point in the season for an unproven rookie is questionable.   Players definitely feel you earn the right to be there and Kepler has earned the right as compared to a player with 600 major league ABs and a career 2 WAR.   Let me say again, it would not bother me one bit if they DFAed Kepler.  I have been advocating trading him since last year.  However, I also understand why they optioned Larnach instead of DFAing Kepler.  Also keep in mind this tangent started with someone bitching about them "jacking around" Larnach.   He has not earned the right to be here over a proven veteran just yet.  I wish he would.

Those guys deal with teammates getting DFAed dozens of times a year. They're not heartbroken over it. They might miss their friends, but this isn't some new thing for them. Guys who stop performing get cut. They understand this is a business. Sympathetic? Sure. But I'm sympathetic to people getting fired. They understand that their teammates play is also tied to their own ability to get enormous amounts of money.

Whether it's Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, or any other player doesn't really matter to me. Max Kepler, Emilio Pagan, Kyle Garlick, etc. may be veterans, but that doesn't earn them a lifetime deal. Kepler isn't currently earning his spot. He's not a "proven veteran" anymore. He's a subpar hitter on a team that needs offense. There were other very reasonable options to make beyond sending Larnach down. I'm not heartbroken for Larnach going down. But acting like Kepler is a league average player anymore is ignoring a whole lot. He doesn't deserve to be on a team attempting to contend. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I wouldn't mind if they DFAed Kepler but that is not without ramifications.  Other players probably would not react well to one of the longest tenured players on the team being cut in that matter.   Especially given Larnach's performance is just not all that different from Kepler's if we consider Kepler's defense in the equation.  It also could be the death of his career and other players are going to be sympathetic and biased.  It also a permanent move.  Depth will be lost.  It's a somewhat reckless move given the much safer alternative of optioning Larnach.

I don't have a problem with Larnach being sent down. He has been coming around a little lately but he hasn't grabbed the opportunity with both hands. 

Wallner bugged me... but I get it... Kepler needed a spot. I was more upset about Wallner when Garlick got the call instead and that still bugs me because he could have taken Kepler's job by now... management got in his way and didn't allow it.     

Julien... I may have a problem with Julien going down while Kepler remains but how I feel about that will manifest if Julien keeps hitting like he has been. I'm hoping that Julien forces the decision through his play.  

Ultimately though... putting the prospects aside. I don't expect Kepler to survive past the trade deadline regardless and I will be disappointed if he does. 

I get the clubhouse disruption part but those guys can read stats just like the rest of us. If they bring in an OF with an actual working bat... the loss of a teammate disappointment could be replaced by the gain of a hitter feeling. 

If they don't upgrade offensively at the deadline. Then call up Celestino for all I care. Kepler is an expired contract who is hurting us right now. Might as well give those AB's to someone who will be back next year because what Max is producing can be replicated by almost anyone. 

I don't believe anyone will take Max in a trade unless it's with a team trying to get rid of an albatross but who knows... there might be a team like the Phillies that could use a defensive upgrade while hoping they find a Hicks or Sanchez like change of scenery bounce. 

I'm giving Max and the club until the deadline. Tick Tick Tick. 😎

[ashbury]

45 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm giving Max and the club until the deadline. Tick Tick Tick. 😎

"Tick tock, my friend."

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't have a problem with Larnach being sent down. He has been coming around a little lately but he hasn't grabbed the opportunity with both hands. 

Wallner bugged me... but I get it... Kepler needed a spot. I was more upset about Wallner when Garlick got the call instead and that still bugs me because he could have taken Kepler's job by now... management got in his way and didn't allow it.     

Julien... I may have a problem with Julien going down while Kepler remains but how I feel about that will manifest if Julien keeps hitting like he has been. I'm hoping that Julien forces the decision through his play.  

Ultimately though... putting the prospects aside. I don't expect Kepler to survive past the trade deadline regardless and I will be disappointed if he does. 

I get the clubhouse disruption part but those guys can read stats just like the rest of us. If they bring in an OF with an actual working bat... the loss of a teammate disappointment could be replaced by the gain of a hitter feeling. 

If they don't upgrade offensively at the deadline. Then call up Celestino for all I care. Kepler is an expired contract who is hurting us right now. Might as well give those AB's to someone who will be back next year because what Max is producing can be replicated by almost anyone. 

I don't believe anyone will take Max in a trade unless it's with a team trying to get rid of an albatross but who knows... there might be a team like the Phillies that could use a defensive upgrade while hoping they find a Hicks or Sanchez like change of scenery bounce. 

I'm giving Max and the club until the deadline. Tick Tick Tick. 😎

Agree completely with every part of this post.  I have wanted to get rid of Kepler for the last year.  I just don't think creating a spot for Larnach is a reason to DFA him.  

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Agree completely with every part of this post.  I have wanted to get rid of Kepler for the last year.  I just don't think creating a spot for Larnach is a reason to DFA him.  

I can see the logic either way. 

I really want someone to rise up and just snatch the job out of his hands. I don't believe Larnach has done that. 

Solano may have though. Julien just might.