Emilio Pagan's 5 Biggest Meltdowns with the Minnesota Twins

[Matthew Taylor]

Emilio Pagán’s time with the Minnesota Twins has featured meltdowns, blown leads and mistakes at the most inopportune times. Let’s count down the five biggest meltdowns from Emilio Pagán during his time with the Twins.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Emilio Pagán meltdowns are like car accidents, they are awful to look at, but you can’t look away. That’s why we’re going to count down Pagán’s five biggest meltdowns with the Minnesota Twins.

5. April 26, 2022 versus the Detroit Tigers
WPA: -0.510

The first entry on the countdown comes in what was just Emilio Pagán’s fifth appearance with the Minnesota Twins at home against the Detroit Tigers. The appearance came on the heels of back-to-back saves for the right hander as he appeared to be working his way up the bullpen pecking order.

Pagán entered the game with a 3-1 lead in the eighth inning, but with some trouble on the base paths with two runners on and one out. Pagán wasted no time in letting the lead slip away as he served up a three-run home run to Javier Baez which gave the Tigers a 4-3 lead. The home run decreased the Twins’ winning percentage in that game by 53%

Thankfully for Pagán, the Minnesota Twins were still able to pull out a win in the bottom of the ninth inning when they scored on a walkoff error from the Tigers’ defense. This being the only meltdown on the list that ended in a Twins win.

4. June 2, 2022 at the Detroit Tigers
WPA: -0.563

The next entry on this list came last season against the same Tigers team. Pagán entered the game in the bottom of the eighth inning, nursing a 2-1 lead. After allowing a single to Eric Haase , Pagán served up a two-run home run to right-hander Daz Cameron . Cameron’s homer gave the Tigers a 3-2 lead and lowered the Twins’ winning percentage by 57%. The Tigers went on to win the game

3. June 28, 2022 at the Cleveland Guardians
WPA: -0.604

Number three on the list of Pagán meltdowns came in what has been probably the most memorable series of Pagán’s tenure with the Minnesota Twins (memorable in a bad way!). In a two-day span, Pagán gave up two earned runs in back-to-back games, raised his ERA one and a half points, and contributed in a big way to the Twins dropping three out of four games to the rival Cleveland Guardians.

The entry on this list, though, came in the June 28 game against the Guardians in which Pagán entered in the bottom of the eighth inning, with a 2-1 lead against Cleveland. After beginning the inning with back-to-back walks, followed by a wild pitch, Pagán surrendered a single to Amed Rosario which put the Guardians back in the lead and gave them a 3-2 lead by which they would ultimately win the game.

2. May 17, 2023 at the Los Angeles Dodgers
WPA: -0.611

After three consecutive entries coming from last season, the two biggest meltdowns from Pagán’s tenure with the Minnesota Twins have come in this current season.

Number two on the list comes from their series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers when Pagán came into the bottom of the seventh inning, trying to protect a 3-2 lead. After having won the previous day, the Twins were looking to be in a good spot to take the series against the Dodgers on the road, which undoubtedly would have been massive.

 

José De Leon started off the inning for the Twins with back-to-back strikeouts. After allowing back-to-back singles, Pagán came into the game to try to get the final out of the inning.

The bottom of the seventh inning went completely pear-shaped, though, when Pagán surrendered back-to-back walks (the second of which forcing in a run) followed by a grand slam from James Outman. After entering the inning up a run, the Twins exited the inning down 7-3, ending the game and their hope at a series win against the Dodgers.

 

1. June 11, 2023 at the Toronto Blue Jays
WPA: -0.680

Number one on the list of the biggest meltdowns from Emilio Pagán with the Minnesota Twins is one that is fresh in everyone’s mind right now, his Sunday meltdown in Toronto.

Pagán entered this one in the bottom of the eighth inning with a two-run lead. Immediately, Pagán showed that he did not have it at all, as he surrendered back-to-back singles, followed immediately by a 423-foot bomb by the ever-struggling Cavan Biggio . The three-run shot gave the Blue Jays a 7-6 lead that they would not surrender and gave the Twins a loss, preventing them from taking a sweep of the Jays.

Which Emilio Pagán meltdown eats at you the most? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Mike Sixel]

Here's the thing....meltdowns that produce a 50% increase in your team losing are MUCH MORE costly than 5 appearances where you increase the odds of your team winning by 10%. Every game player appearances move the needle 5-10% up and down.....and your teammates can do the same. It takes an accumulation of such events to win or lose a game.

But changing the likelihood of winning by 50%? That's hard to over come, positively or negatively. That's the issue here. Any mediocre RP can come in and move the needle up and down by 10% every game. Only a handful can do this, year after year, and still have a job.

[CRF]

I really don't need to know his 5 biggest meltdowns. What I want to know is, if the last one against the Jays...is his last one in a Twins uni.

[wsnydes]

I'm not seeing the satire disclaimer at the top.  😔

[ashbury]

WPA is nobody's idea of a perfect stat, and is more about situations than about "how good" a given player is.  I do like a couple of things about it, one of which is that it tracks well with the fan psychology.  The way WPA works, a 9th inning meltdown is more costly than one occurring in the 8th, since confidence in a lead increases as the end of the game approaches. 

That's what makes Pagan's most recent loss especially noteworthy. I looked on b-r.com's Stathead tool the next day, and his was only about the 39th worst (negative) game-WPA for a pitcher this season.  But 31 of the ones farther up the list occurred in the 9th inning.

Special recognition must go to Josh Fleming for his outing against the Dodgers on May 28.  You may remember the game.  He started and pitched 6 full innings, at which point the score was tied 10-10.  His Rays kept scoring runs, piling up positive WPA totaling .849 by game's end, and he just kept giving runs right back (assisted a bit by defensive mistakes), racking up a total of -.713 WPA.  Fleming's number is really hard for a starter to achieve, worst for a starter so far this year.  Since the Rays were the home team, and it was tied, they still had an estimated 57% historical chance of winning after he finished the top of the 6th, and they did push across a run for an 11-10 thriller; his two relievers justly earned nice WPA ratings.  Weird game.

[AJray15]

This seems cruel and unnecessary.

[JD-TWINS]

Pagan has to go, for the sake of team psyche!

It doesn’t matter what his “stuff” may be, he’s got poor command & even worse command when there are pressure situations in play.

Can’t go for 6-8 outings w/o giving up a run & then take a bad loss. Same thing 4 or 5 different months of the season. Too high of a price to pay!!! Gotta be a big deflating thing in the locker room!! Needs to go or hit the IL for a month while targeting a trade partner - maybe we give him away for $1,000,000 salary share for balance of ‘23?

[TopGunn#22]

If the Dodgers can exile Thor the Twins can certainly part ways with Pagan.  

[mikelink45]

This is torture - I know you are just reporting the facts, but Pagan shakes our faith before he even gets on the mound.  But next you will treat us to the worst outing of Jorge Lopez and a trip back to the days of Colome and Dyson ...  

I know why they do not pursue RP in free agency - they just can't judge them.  By the way there is a pitcher in the BP in Baltimore that sure would have looked good in our BP.  

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This is torture - I know you are just reporting the facts, but Pagan shakes our faith before he even gets on the mound.  But next you will treat us to the worst outing of Jorge Lopez and a trip back to the days of Colome and Dyson ...  

I know why they do not pursue RP in free agency - they just can't judge them.  By the way there is a pitcher in the BP in Baltimore that sure would have looked good in our BP.  

That pitcher was not good, and not young. If anyone thought he'd be this good, the Twins wouldn't have originally gotten him for virtually nothing. 

[blindeke]

I'm just here to say I couldn't actually read the article, because I want to live a happy life. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

As per Michael Rand of the Tribune, Pagon ranks 1128th of 1133 pitchers since 2021 by WPA. Who's 1133 you ask. Alex Colome of course, and Trevor McGill is right between them at 1130th. How incompetent does a front office  have to be to have 3of the 6 worst pitchers in MLB the last 2.5 years?

[FormerFootballFan]

2 hours ago, AJray15 said:

This seems cruel and unnecessary.

Yeah, that's what most Twins fans say when Pagan steps out onto the mound.  ;-)

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

As per Michael Rand of the Tribune, Pagon ranks 1128th of 1133 pitchers since 2021 by WPA. Who's 1133 you ask. Alex Colome of course, and Trevor McGill is right between them at 1130th. How incompetent does a front office  have to be to have 3of the 6 worst pitchers in MLB the last 2.5 years?

Yikes. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, AJray15 said:

This seems cruel and unnecessary.

It feels in the mean spirit of the “Worst Twin of All-Time” series from a few years ago that was thankfully nixed.

[Schmoeman5]

Why limit it to top 5. Should have been his top 25 biggest meltdowns as a Twin so we could really cringe. Satire

[LastOnePicked]

Shouldn't this title have "So Far" added to it? I mean, he's still a Twin. Probably will be for a few years yet.

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Shouldn't this title have "So Far" added to it? I mean, he's still a Twin. Probably will be for a few years yet.

"That we know of."  I am certain that Pagan has single-handedly lost several other games for the Twins and the FO just sweeps it all under the rug.

[DocBauer]

ONLY 5? OH, I get it, just the WORST 5.

Surprised he isn't at the bottom of the WPA! I thought I had heard he was the worst in the last 5yrs. Guess there's reason for optimism huh? Lol

But seriously, how can virtually everyone on the outside looking in see how bad he is and those closest to can't?

IF he was going to be kept...and he was...he should have been the 8th guy to pitch multiple innings to "take one for the team" here and there. Which, honestly, has seldom been needed. 

Shouldn't have been brought back. Should have been cut after the Jay's game. Almost anyone could be better than he's been. 

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

IF he was going to be kept...and he was...he should have been the 8th guy to pitch multiple innings to "take one for the team" here and there. Which, honestly, has seldom been needed.

I don't think a market like Minnesota pays someone $3.5M to pitch mopup.  They clearly thought his stuff can be harnessed for better than that.  Plus, they have beaucoup candidates for the role you are suggesting; every team does.

Now that the money's spent, of course, he's as good a candidate as the others.  Unlike some others, he can't be sent at will to St Paul as part of a shuttle, and that in turn makes him a DFA candidate in order to send him down.

WIshful thinking, failure to execute the plan, bad player evaluation - one way or another, it hasn't worked.

[DocBauer]

35 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't think a market like Minnesota pays someone $3.5M to pitch mopup.  They clearly thought his stuff can be harnessed for better than that.  Plus, they have beaucoup candidates for the role you are suggesting; every team does.

Now that the money's spent, of course, he's as good a candidate as the others.  Unlike some others, he can't be sent at will to St Paul as part of a shuttle, and that in turn makes him a DFA candidate in order to send him down.

WIshful thinking, failure to execute the plan, bad player evaluation - one way or another, it hasn't worked.

100%!

I should have been more detailed that they STILL should have made an attempt at a FA arm that might pay off, since it's always a crap shoot. But simply, if they really and truly believed there was something there, he could have and should have begun in that role to prove himself while filling a role.

Still doesn't excuse keeping him when his $3.5M could have been better spent elsewhere. 

[srjr19]

I'm not sure it rates a spot on this list but I recall a game against cleveland last year (I can't recall the date) in which Joe Ryan stuck out Franmil Reyes two if not three times with high fastballs.

When Pagan faced him in the late innings though, despite having more fastball than Ryan, he threw Reyes sliders until he hung one, thereby surrendering the lead.

 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

As per Michael Rand of the Tribune, Pagon ranks 1128th of 1133 pitchers since 2021 by WPA. Who's 1133 you ask. Alex Colome of course, and Trevor McGill is right between them at 1130th. How incompetent does a front office  have to be to have 3of the 6 worst pitchers in MLB the last 2.5 years?

"The bullpen is not a priority."

[Otaknam]

Pagan can only be trusted in a mop up role with no game on the line and when the team is trying to save the BP.  He has shown over and over again that he can’t be trusted in a high leverage situation. Why have a guy like that with no upside? Try a rookie in that spot and at least you are aiding in player development. 

[LeatherAntenna]

Add number six, June 26, blew up in Atlanta.