Was extending Buxton a mistake?

[farmerguychris]

I was thrilled when we were able to sign Buxton for 7 years at only $100M!  

I knew we were getting him at that price ONLY because of his injury history.  He could have demanded double that if injuries were not part of the narrative of this outstanding center fielder.  We knew that even if he only played 2/3 of the games, we would still be getting good value for our dollars as his ability to produce when he was in there and healthy came in bunches.  With 1WAR being valued at $4-$8 Million annually in the free agent market.  Paying $15M for a player who averages 3 to 4.5 WAR - it seems fair.  IF he were in centerfield.

Here is my question - IF the Front Office knew Byron would only be able to DH starting in year 1 of his new contract, would we still have made this deal?  

Removing the ridiculous and long ago contract signed by Cabrera in Detroit ($32M) to be their DH - Byron is tied with Jorge Solar in Miami as the 2nd highest paid DH in the league in the first year of his contract.  Is this sustainable?  In  6 years, Buxton will be 34. A lot of players can continue to be productive at 34, but when I hear that there is no way Buxton could possibly play in the field as a 29 year old, how could he possibly ever again in the future?  

In closing, I love what Buxton can bring to our team when healthy.  I'm not one of the fans who wants him to run out there and play CF regardless of how he feels because his injury history suggests it would only be a matter of time before he had a significant injury, preventing him from even being a DH.  But what does the future hold for him as a Twin?  Will he ever play in the field again?  Should he?  He has a full no trade until his age 33 season, at which time does open to be the possibility of being traded to 1 of 5 teams for the last 2 years of his contract.  (according to Sportrac) Would he WANT to play in the field?  If he wants to play in the field and we're scared to put him out there, should we look into seeing if he would trade his no-trade clause for one of those 5 teams early if they are willing to play him in the field?

So many questions, but just wondering if this is all we're ever going to get out of him - then maybe this great value deal isn't quite so great anymore.  Hope this is only temporary, but I don't think we'll always be lucky enough to put someone out there with Taylor's fielding ability will we?

What do you think, is he still a good value at $15 to be our DH for the next 6 years?

[sun]

Dreams of MLB greatness for BB are not over. He doesn't need to be a superman, he only needs to be there when we really need him. If that opportunity ever arises then his value to the Twins will be priceless. Fans can either choose to be optimistic & believe in his potential value or not. That's up to them. You already know how BB feels about it. He'll be back.

[August J Gloop]

Bux at DH for 15MM is a good deal. Assuming he can be healthy and hit like he did. If he's still broke down, playing only 80 games a year, probably not. But The risk of letting him walk and then star for the Yankees was too great. 

[chpettit19]

If he's a DH only for the entirety of this contract it's nowhere near as good of a deal for the Twins. He's probably still able to earn 2 WAR a year as a DH, and thus be "worth the contract," but Buxton at DH really changes the outlook for this organization over the next half decade. The Twins need to have very real conversations with Drs and figure out what Buxton's body can do moving forward. If he can't play CF anymore they need to change a lot about their team building plans.

[blindeke]

I hate this. Buxton never playing defense again is like Beethoven going deaf.

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, blindeke said:

I hate this. Buxton never playing defense again is like Beethoven going deaf.

And yet, Beethoven composed one of his greatest works, and one of the greatest works of all time, while fully deaf. I could never tire of listening to Beethoven's 9th Symphony because it's Beethoven's 9th Symphony, a masterpiece.

[Brandon]

Buxton was only to DH the first half of this season I thought.  His knee is healing and he should be back out in CF soon.  I get that Taylor in CF is working out just fine.  So maybe a 30-50% time for Buxton and the rest for Taylor after the All Star break and then back in CF next year.  That is what I thought the aTwins management was planned. If Buxton is a full time DH from now on is a huge disappointment.  

[USAFChief]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

And yet, Beethoven composed one of his greatest works, and one of the greatest works of all time, while fully deaf. I could never tire of listening to Beethoven's 9th Symphony because it's Beethoven's 9th Symphony, a masterpiece.

Pfft. Took him until the 9th try. 

[rwilfong86]

Too early to tell. 

[LastOnePicked]

Yes, I think it was. But it was a mistake I advocated and cheered for, so no pointing fingers here.

It was a signing made with rose-colored glasses. In the future, any Twins FO is going to have to be a little more sober about a player's injury history.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Pfft. Took him until the 9th try. 

The 9th try and totally deaf … hmm

[D.C Twins]

If he stays at DH, he limits flexibility to use other poor fielding great hitters in our organization... so if only a DH... not good. not good at all....

[FlyingFinn]

2 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

If he stays at DH, he limits flexibility to use other poor fielding great hitters in our organization... so if only a DH... not good. not good at all....

Agreed. That's my biggest problem with Buxton as the full-time DH. Miranda, Julien, Wallner (and guys like them who better bats than D) would then be forced to play on D all the time in order to play in the future. Encarnocion-Strand, who we traded away, has always projected as a DH because of his horrible D. But he has pounded minor league pitching at all levels. Not sure that translates to MLB but if it does, great hitters with no D like him need a DH spot. And the Twins need to get more hitters in the lineup.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pfft. Took him until the 9th try. 

You make it sound worse than it was.  He was drunk after finishing off the 5th.

Meh, as for Buxton, if he can hit like Nelson Cruz did for us then his salary at DH will be justifiable.  Maybe most of the years he will?  I'm not optimistic but it's not without hope.

The contract is much better when he plays a sizable proportion of CF.  Doubt there's any argument about that.

[Mike Sixel]

We're going to second guess a move everyone praised?

Also, I audibly gasped at a performance of the ninth. It's the most powerful live performance I've ever seen. 

[blindeke]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

And yet, Beethoven composed one of his greatest works, and one of the greatest works of all time, while fully deaf. I could never tire of listening to Beethoven's 9th Symphony because it's Beethoven's 9th Symphony, a masterpiece.

The 7th is my opium right now, but yes. Sure.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I really hope Buxton recommits himself this offseason to coming back in 2024 as a full time center fielder, aiming for 150 games, with something like what Nick Nelson proposed this spring: 75% in the field, and the other 25% DH or off. I think I got that close. @Nick Nelson

People realize that Buxton is actually pretty bad as a DH, correct? Among the 12 qualifying designated hitters, Buxton is about mid pack in counting stats, and his rate stats have plummeted. 

[mnfireman]

36 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

People realize that Buxton is actually pretty bad as a DH, correct? Among the 12 qualifying designated hitters, Buxton is about mid pack in counting stats, and his rate stats have plummeted. 

I would venture to guess that Buxton is not 100% (no ridicule needed). Baldelli, Falvey & Levine, amongst others, have to believe that 75% of Buxton is better than 100% of (pick a name). While not ideal, his contract allows for him to not play CF (a premium position) and still be a contributing member of this team. However, his DH'ing handcuffs the team and detracts from optimum usage of all players.

[Reptevia]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

Buxton was only to DH the first half of this season I thought.  His knee is healing and he should be back out in CF soon.  I get that Taylor in CF is working out just fine.  So maybe a 30-50% time for Buxton and the rest for Taylor after the All Star break and then back in CF next year.  That is what I thought the aTwins management was planned. If Buxton is a full time DH from now on is a huge disappointment.  

 

The only place I’ve heard that Buxton was just waiting to feel better before running back out to CF is on here. 

[cHawk]

If we assume Buxton will play ~100 games this season at DH (which is probably an underestimate, of course barring an injury) he is on pace to finish with 1.8 WAR. By the standard dollars-to-WAR conversion ratio of $8M to 1 WAR, Buxton would be worth approximately $14.4M.

So far this looks like a good investment, as ridiculous as that might sound.

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if Byron isn't so dinged up and restricted by pain that he decides to retire long before his contract ends. The contract was fine but the injuries and effect on his play is just sad.

[weitz41]

I'm fine with the Buxton signing.

He's on the 10-day IL not the 60 days IL like he likely would if playing the field. 2 WAR is a break even on his salary. I don't think that will be an issue. Maybe he's manning center in September and October instead of May and June. If so that's a win. 

Like Mike Sixel said above "Are we going to second guess every move?" 

[NotAboutWinning]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

Like Mike Sixel said above "Are we going to second guess every move?"

Yes, because that is our super power! 🤣🤪🤣

[wsnydes]

We're what, 3 months into the deal and having this discussion?  We don't know that Buxton will be a DH for the rest of the deal or even the rest of the season!  The fact that the deal was based on performance makes the deal better on its own.  Is it as optimal as it could be?  Absolutely not.  Is it as bad as it might otherwise be?  Absolutely not.

I think this would be a much more compelling, and realistic, conversation 3 years into the deal.  Not 3 months.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What makes this more compelling is that it’s happening right now. We can go back and review the Buxton extension threads a couple years ago, to see if any posters were discussing a move to DH after season one of his seven season contract. I’d guess not.

I think this board was split about 50-50 in 2016 on whether it was a good idea to move Miguel Sano into right field. Maybe 40-60 against. At least among the loudest posters (raises hand). For those in favor, at least to their credit, they were not so much in favor as they were willing to give it a shot. Articles were written, metrics were cited, pretenses were upheld, all to support the decision to move Sano to right field. Moving Buxton into the full time DH slot is at a similar level of decision-making, to me. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I wonder if Byron isn't so dinged up and restricted by pain that he decides to retire long before his contract ends. The contract was fine but the injuries and effect on his play is just sad.

If Buxton retired, he’d be walking away from the rest of the contract.

I don’t think you saw the news story from the offseason about his dinner with Correa. Buxton isn’t full time DH because he’s hurt, Buxton is full time DH because Correa convinced him to do this.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If Buxton retired, he’d be walking away from the rest of the contract.

I don’t think you saw the news story from the offseason about his dinner with Correa. Buxton isn’t full time DH because he’s hurt, Buxton is full time DH because Correa convinced him to do this.

Your belief is that Buxton, the FO, the coaching staff, the rest of the players, and the medical staff all want Buxton to play CF, and all believe Buxton is healthy enough, and capable, of playing CF, but because Correa told him to DH he's DHing. That's honestly how you think things went down?

[Jerr]

16 hours ago, blindeke said:

I hate this. Buxton never playing defense again is like Beethoven going deaf.

Not a good analogy.

[mnfireman]

42 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don’t think you saw the news story from the offseason about his dinner with Correa. Buxton isn’t full time DH because he’s hurt, Buxton is full time DH because Correa convinced him to do this.

[Jerr]

I love a center fielding Buxton, but not happy if he doesn't get back on the field soon. IL him until he is (if ever) able to do that. So far his contract looks wasted as to what he is paid to do. At DH he still needs to run and sorry, but with his injury history, just as likely to get hurt.