Was extending Buxton a mistake?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your belief is that Buxton, the FO, the coaching staff, the rest of the players, and the medical staff all want Buxton to play CF, and all believe Buxton is healthy enough, and capable, of playing CF, but because Correa told him to DH he's DHing. That's honestly how you think things went down?

Dan Hayes reported this. 

[Squirrel]

52 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If Buxton retired, he’d be walking away from the rest of the contract.

I don’t think you saw the news story from the offseason about his dinner with Correa. Buxton isn’t full time DH because he’s hurt, Buxton is full time DH because Correa convinced him to do this.

I'm sorry, but that is a bit of a nonsense. He's not a fulltime DH because of that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

I'm sorry, but that is a bit of a nonsense. He's not a fulltime DH because of that.

Dan Hayes reported this. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Dan Hayes reported this. 

No, he didn't. He reported that Correa and Buxton had dinner, and Correa helped convince him that DHing to keep him in the lineup would be good. He never at all said that it was Correa's idea. You can't honestly think the FO is putting their jobs on the line by not playing Buxton in CF when they believe it'd be the right thing to do all because Carlos Correa, in all his medical expertise, told them to DH Buxton.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No, he didn't. He reported that Correa and Buxton had dinner, and Correa helped convince him that DHing to keep him in the lineup would be good. He never at all said that it was Correa's idea. You can't honestly think the FO is putting their jobs on the line by not playing Buxton in CF when they believe it'd be the right thing to do all because Carlos Correa, in all his medical expertise, told them to DH Buxton.

"We had a four-hour conversation. I said, 'I think we're a better team if you're DH-ing and taking 500 at-bats and just focusing on hitting 40 or 50 homers during the season and let Michael Taylor guard the outfield,'" Correa recalled. "He took it very well."

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

"We had a four-hour conversation. I said, 'I think we're a better team if you're DH-ing and taking 500 at-bats and just focusing on hitting 40 or 50 homers during the season and let Michael Taylor guard the outfield,'" Correa recalled. "He took it very well."

Ok?

"“Load management is the NBA term,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “It’s probably a fair term to use just because we think about games and reps in center field, games and reps at DH. Those are different stresses every day, obviously. It’s more: How do we maintain his health through the course of the season as much as we can?”"

There's another quote from a Dan Hayes article. You think Falvey said that because Correa came to him and told him they had to DH Buxton? I'm honestly asking you if you believe the FO, and Rocco, have been told by Buxton, and the medical staff, that he's fully healthy, and there's no reason he can't play CF, and they're choosing to put out an inferior lineup because Carlos Correa told them to DH Buxton. That's truly what you think? You think those guys are all putting their jobs on the line by DHing Buxton instead of putting him in CF because Carlos freaking Correa told them it's the right thing to do? You don't think the more likely scenario is that the FO, on advice from the medical staff, were trying to get Buxton to DH, but he was fighting it, so they asked Correa to step in and help if he could?

[Road trip]

A mistake?  No, more like a calculated risk that may or may not work out.  You have to take calculated risks as a GM, understanding that not all will work out.

The contract price was right, but Buxton has always been a high ceiling/low floor guy due to his injury history and the streaky nature of his hitting.  We may still get the high ceiling: "All Star centerfielder who can do everything", although his age and injury history probably make this at best a 20% proposition.  We may get the low floor, which would be (strangely) a "Miguel Sano with a little more speed" kind of player: Abundant power, low average, lots of strikeouts, no defensive position, hurt frequently.  That's not what anyone dreamed about when evaluating Buxton's potential a few years ago, yet here we are.  A realistic hope is probably that we end up somewhere in between the two.

 

 

[Muppet]

Seems like signing a player to a long term high $ deal is the surest way to turn them into a pumpkin. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Here is what I think is happening and what I expect to happen moving forward.  I think towards the end of July to August they are going to begin to work Buxton back into the field.  The last couple of seasons we went into the post season we didn't have Buxton because he broke down during the year.  If you can manage him and only have him play 1-2 months or 2 1/2 months he should still be relatively fresh,  not banged up and be back roaming Centerfield.  Honestly I feel like as an organization and team they have been slow playing the season and they expect to turn it on in the back half with an easier schedule.  

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Dan Hayes reported this. 

Context. It was a dinner between friends discussing their roles for this season, given his health this year. It wasn't Correa convincing him to stay at DH forever. I've read what Dan Hayes wrote and you are spinning it to support your agenda regarding Correa. Nice try, though.

[Craig Arko]

A: No.

B: This thread went off the rails fast.

[Riverbrian]

It wasn't a mistake at the time but maybe it is at the moment.  

His ability to play CF is such a major component in his value.

If he can't return to playing CF... Instead of being a solution he becomes something that needs to be overcome. 

Buxton is currently bottlenecking multiple positions and players by removing the DH as an option for playing time for others and forcing the team to play players in the OF to cover that maybe shouldn't. 

To simplify... look at it this way. Which is better?

Buxton in CF, Taylor in RF and Julien at DH

or

Taylor in CF, Kepler in RF and Buxton at DH

On top of that... If Buxton isn't hitting as a DH and let's face it... He has been in a pretty deep slump. You end up with DH not being what it could be, CF not being what it could be, RF or LF not being what it could be and all of those positions are hard to fix now. 

It could be said... that Kepler is being kept a float by Buxton at DH and it could be said that this corner OF log jam is being jammed up by Buxton at DH.

This ain't good and Buxton is at the center of it all by not being at the center of it all in the outfield. 

 

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Context. It was a dinner between friends discussing their roles for this season, given his health this year. It wasn't Correa convincing him to stay at DH forever. I've read what Dan Hayes wrote and you are spinning it to support your agenda regarding Correa. Nice try, though.

Yeah, it sounds clear that Correa was working as consigliere for the front office. Likely as expected with the contract they gave him.

If it was the other way around and Correa is going behind the back of the front office to subvert their authority, that would have been a giant, scandalous story and Dan Hayes would have obviously led with that. And so would have ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports and MLBTR. Also, the LA Times, NY Times, and every other newspapers in cities that now boo Correa. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, wsnydes said:

We're what, 3 months into the deal and having this discussion?  We don't know that Buxton will be a DH for the rest of the deal or even the rest of the season!  The fact that the deal was based on performance makes the deal better on its own.  Is it as optimal as it could be?  Absolutely not.  Is it as bad as it might otherwise be?  Absolutely not.

I think this would be a much more compelling, and realistic, conversation 3 years into the deal.  Not 3 months.

Seven seasons x 162 games = 1134 scheduled over the course of the contract. 

They've played 66 of those games, putting us at less than 6 percent. Yeah, seems not particularly helpful. 

[wsnydes]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

"We had a four-hour conversation. I said, 'I think we're a better team if you're DH-ing and taking 500 at-bats and just focusing on hitting 40 or 50 homers during the season and let Michael Taylor guard the outfield,'" Correa recalled. "He took it very well."

I wish that he would have listened more to that 40 or 50 HRs part.  He's on pace for half that.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Was 2021 Sano worth what Buxton is getting paid?  That's basically what we have right now.  Compare the stats.  So if this is the new norm then yes we overpaid.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Context. It was a dinner between friends discussing their roles for this season, given his health this year. It wasn't Correa convincing him to stay at DH forever. I've read what Dan Hayes wrote and you are spinning it to support your agenda regarding Correa. Nice try, though.

True, it was an idea for this season, but if the idea/experiment would have worked, why would they end after this season, if it worked? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it sounds clear that Correa was working as consigliere for the front office. Likely as expected with the contract they gave him.

If it was the other way around and Correa is going behind the back of the front office to subvert their authority, that would have been a giant, scandalous story and Dan Hayes would have obviously led with that. And so would have ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports and MLBTR. Also, the LA Times, NY Times, and every other newspapers in cities that now boo Correa. 

You mean a consigliere, like Tom Hagen? Wow yeah thats something 🙂

There’s nothing conspiratorial or scandalous going on here. In the offseason, Correa convinced Buxton to play DH, and they both went to the front office with the idea. The front office saw some logic in it, but pushed back by saying they would try it until mid-May, instead of all season. I don’t know what happened to the mid-May timeline, but whatever. Thanks to Hayes reporting, the pieces of the story all fit.

Buxton is eligible to come off the IL any day now and we are all hoping for a healthy good Byron Buxton to return. 

[MGM4706]

Ridiculous having the face of your franchise that can't play the field!! And he has not shown he can be a clutch hitter like in the 9th inning with two on. Strikes out way too much. Teams don't even pitch around him in key spots.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You mean a consigliere, like Tom Hagen? Wow yeah thats something 🙂

There’s nothing conspiratorial or scandalous going on here. In the offseason, Correa convinced Buxton to play DH, and they both went to the front office with the idea. The front office saw some logic in it, but pushed back by saying they would try it until mid-May, instead of all season. I don’t know what happened to the mid-May timeline, but whatever. Thanks to Hayes reporting, the pieces of the story all fit.

Buxton is eligible to come off the IL any day now and we are all hoping for a healthy good Byron Buxton to return. 

If someone isn't preparing a documentary about this already I'm willing to be a part of the TD team that does. I'm sure we could make quite a bit of money selling the documentary on how Carlos Correa took over an entire baseball organization and forced them to do things they didn't want to do. I'll start calling 30 for 30, and Ken Burns, now. This is going to be huge!

[Danchat]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

We're going to second guess a move everyone praised?

Also, I audibly gasped at a performance of the ninth. It's the most powerful live performance I've ever seen. 

We praise a lot of moves here, but regardless we need to judge moves by the results. It is also way to early to judge the Buxton move.

[Craig Arko]

The Red Sox play Sweet Caroline at their home games. The Twins should play Ode to Joy. Kepler can sing the German lyrics.

Anyway, my guess is that Buxton is activated for the Detroit home series. I’d expect he’ll be at DH and we’ll have to see what happens after that.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Danchat said:

We praise a lot of moves here, but regardless we need to judge moves by the results. It is also way to early to judge the Buxton move.

That's not true. You judge a decision based on what you know at the time. For example, getting home while driving drunk is not a good decision just because you didn't kill someone this time. The decision to sign Buxton can be the right decision, and it can still not work.

It's the right decision to exercise.... And you can still blow out a knee, for example. 

[August J Gloop]

What watching MAT every day has taught me is that fans can be seduced by the flashiness of Buxton's defense. Taylor makes plays standing up, or jogging where Bux would have had to dash with his super speed and fly through the air to complete. Bux's defense was probably overrated. His reads have never been great, and he's prone to losing track of the wall. 

Outfield defense always is kinda overestimated. A great defender can only guarantee you 15-20 extra outs a season. And that's if you're lucky enough to have them hit exactly to the grey area where the good defender can impact that which a bad one can not. Of course if you can put 3 of those outfielders out there, then you might be on to something that can make a real impact. 

Bux DHing really isn't any worse than Paul Molitor or Edgar Martinez. But maybe there is some value in moving him to a corner to protect the knees a bit? 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Like Mike Sixel said above "Are we going to second guess every move?" 

Who stops at second guessing here? I think we're up to our seventeenth guess on some decisions.

[DJL44]

I underestimated how quickly Buxton would go from all-defensive CF to DH. I thought there would be a stop in the corner outfield in between. The guy can't keep his knees healthy enough to practice catching flyballs so he can prepare for an outfield spot. This is Tony Oliva 1971 impact on his career.

[Road trip]

Yeah, the Oliva comp is a little scary, and hopefully not accurate yet for the remainder of Buxton's career.  Buxton gained/gains far more value from his legs and glove than Oliva did, and Oliva was a significantly better pure hitter.  Add in the fact the Oliva was several years older when his knee injury effectively ended his career as an outfielder and... well, ouch.  Sure hope Buxton can return to semi-regular outfield duty at some point in the future, even if it isn't this year.

[GNess]

If he can return to play CF at the elite level it is a great contract. If he is limited to FT DH it is only a pretty good contract.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Byron Buxton moving to DH from CF is what takes this deal from being great to being just OK.  His current offensive production would be excellent for a centerfielder, but is just OK for a DH.  Unfortunately, by clogging up the DH position, he prevents another good hitter from getting regular at bats or half days off, not to mention the developmental opportunity for someone like Julien (or Lewis, or Lee, or Martin, or ??) to get some MLB at bats.  Buxton's output as a DH on a "per WAR" basis is likely about what his contract pays for.

The question at this point is whether this is a permanent move.  If it is, the impact is substantial.  If he can move back to CF (or even RF or LF), it would be a great improvement for the Twins.  We can only hope that happens.

 

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, if he is a permanent DH, that will not be ideal. It will definitely hurt this team, as there are likely better options that can't play the field.