Week in Review: Mixed Feelings

[Nash Walker]

The Twins backed up a great series win in Houston with a measly split at home against the Guardians. Royce Lewis returned with a bang, injuries piled up, and the feeling of a missed opportunity loomed into the weekend. 

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/29 through Sun, 6/4
Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 31-29)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +45)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:
Game 54 | MIN 7, HOU 5: Lewis Powers Twins to Win in Extras
Game 55 | HOU 5, MIN 1: Twins Lineup Fails to Launch in Houston
Game 56 | MIN 8, HOU 2: Bats Erupt, Varland Throws a Gem
Game 57 | MIN 7, CLE 6: Twins Lose (Players), but Win in Walk-off Fashion
Game 58 | MIN 1, CLE 0: Bailey Ober Crushes Cleveland on Apple TV… Again
Game 59 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Gray Allows First Home Run of Season, Twins Lose
Game 60 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Seventh Inning Costs Twins Again

NEWS & NOTES
It was another busy week on the Twins transaction front. Royce Lewis made his highly anticipated return a year after his second ACL surgery as the Twins transferred Nick Gordon (tibia) to the 60-day IL, freeing up the 40-man roster spot for the former No. 1 pick. 

The team activated Max Kepler (hamstring) from the injured list and optioned Matt Wallner, who had reached in eight straight plate appearances last weekend at Target Field. The Twins sent Kenta Maeda (elbow) and Caleb Thielbar (oblique) to St.Paul on rehab before activating Thielbar for Sunday’s finale. Gilberto Celestino (thumb) is on the recovery trail, joining Low-A Fort Myers for a rehab assignment. 

Jorge Polanco (hamstring) returned from his second stint on the IL and Edouard Julien re-joined the Saints in a clean swap at second base. Julien was 2 for his last 16 with seven strikeouts and two walks before the demotion. Joey Gallo’s left hamstring remained a problem and landed him on the IL after Friday’s game. With a slew of left-handed starters on the schedule, Kyle Garlick received the call and joined the team Saturday. 

And finally, the Twins placed Cole Sands (shoulder impingement) on the injured list Sunday in the move to activate Thielbar. 

HIGHLIGHTS
It takes a special person and player to miss an overwhelming majority of the last three seasons, endure back-to-back knee surgeries, and still return as an instant star-level talent. In his first game back Monday in Houston, one year to the day of his second ACL tear, Lewis blasted a three-run homer in his second at-bat. Lewis proclaimed he felt “something special” was going to happen in the game and… that was an understatement. 

With the Twins trailing by one with two on and two out in the ninth, Lewis lined an opposite field single off Ryan Pressly to tie the game. It was an exceptional swing on an exceptional slider from one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Twins went on to win in extras en route to a fantastic road series victory. 

A grossly similar script to last year’s headaches played out again in Thursday’s series opener with the Guardians. Cleveland barraged Pablo López with singles, erasing the Twins’ advantage and turning a three-run lead over to its fantastic bullpen. Lewis remained unfazed, blasting a two-run, game-tying homer to the centerfield berm off Trevor Stephan in the eighth. 

The Twins went on to walk-off the Guards on a Willi Castro sacrifice fly. Without Lewis, this week looks starkly different. It feels like the Twins just added one of their best all-around players, with Lewis flashing his elite athleticism at third base and in the batter’s box. 

In a scary and distressing turn, Lewis tumbled mightily in a scary collision with Gabriel Arias late Sunday. Luckily, Royce walked off under his own power after several minutes on the ground. Rocco Baldelli said it doesn’t appear Lewis is concussed or seriously injured.  

The Lewis and Alex Kirilloff duo Twins fans have dreamed on forever is finally taking hold. Kirilloff went 7-for-17 with seven walks in 25 plate appearances on the week. AK is hitting .304/.439/.468 in 26 games, combining patience with an elite slashing ability that made him one of the top prospects in the game just a few years ago. 

Jhoan Durán remains unbelievable. The Twins’ superstar reliever pitched two scoreless frames in Monday’s extra innings win over the Astros, striking out Yordan Álvarez on a disgusting 99 mph splinker to finish the game. Duran went multiple innings again in Friday’s win, dicing up the Guardians in a 1-0 Twins shutout win. Bailey Ober was also tremendous with six scoreless innings, lowering his ERA to 2.33. Ober now owns a 3.47 ERA in 39 MLB starts and looks more like a frontline starter than a depth one. 

Louie Varland is making a similar case. The St.Paul native shoved with seven scoreless innings on the road in Houston on Wednesday, working with a mid-90s heater and a nasty cutter. Varland has a 3.51 ERA and 23% strikeout rate through seven starts. Of note, Joe Ryan owned a 3.55 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate in his rookie campaign last season. 

LOWLIGHTS
If there’s been a worse start to a $200 million contract, I’d like to see it. Carlos Correa went 1-for-12 with six strikeouts and one walk in another horrific week. Correa missed all but seven innings in a vital series with Cleveland as he nurses lingering pain from his plantar fasciitis. Correa is hitting .207/.299/.372 while leading the American League in double plays as essentially a replacement-level player. 

Byron Buxton is hitting .177 and slugging .318 since the start of May. He’s been largely terrible with 27 strikeouts and just six runs driven in over that span, making all his starts at DH. To add injury to insult, Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee drilled him in the ribs with a 97 mph fastball in Thursday’s series opener. Buxton had to sleep in a rocking chair and missed the rest of the series. 

Speaking of long-term building blocks, Pablo López has been entirely underwhelming. López unraveled Thursday night and has allowed 31 earned runs in 45 ⅓ innings since signing his four-year, $73.5 million extension. Jorge López hit a new low… and a gatorade cooler. The Twins’ prized 2022 deadline relief addition has coughed up five home runs over his last 3 ⅓ innings. 

The Twins’ belief in Kepler continues to prove misguided after he returned from the injured list to go 3-for-26 with seven strikeouts and zero walks. With Wallner crushing at Triple-A and Trevor Larnach on the mend from pneumonia, it’s worth wondering just how long the Twins will let this ineptitude happen. Kepler is not under team control beyond this season with a $10M club option (and $1M buyout) left on his extension. He's a corner outfielder hitting .192 with a 76 wRC+ in 140 plate appearances. In any other circumstance, a DFA would seem likely. Given how the Twins have stuck by Kepler, though, that seems improbable. 

TRENDING STORYLINE
It sounds like Buxton, Correa, and Kirilloff will all return to the lineup early this week. The Twins offense remains inconsistent at best and feeble at worst. Can they finally click with all of their guns in the lineup?

LOOKING AHEAD
On paper, this is one of the most difficult weeks of the year. The Rays and Blue Jays await on an American League Beast road trip following the off-day. The Twins will miss Shane McClanahan in a dash of good fortune but may have to solve Tyler Glasnow and Kevin Gausman. 

TUESDAY, 6/6: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Louie Varland vs. RHP Zach Eflin
WEDNESDAY, 6/7: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Pablo López vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos
THURSDAY, 6/8: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Bailey Ober vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow
FRIDAY, 6/9: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
SATURDAY, 6/10: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Alek Manoah
SUNDAY, 6/11: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Louie Varland vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

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[stringer bell]

Long term encouraging stats--The Twins have allowed 29 stolen bases with 15 caught stealing. They have been successful on 28 stolen bases and only caught six times. They are actually winning that portion of the running game.

The biggest bugaboo is strikeouts. In 60 games, they struck out 613 times.

[tony&rodney]

Despite my general optimism and hopes for the Twins this season, they are not a very good baseball team if viewed from a distance. Apparently the Twins want to prove those prognosticators who predicted 82-85 wins correct.

[FlyingFinn]

It just feels like we let the week slip away by allowing Kepler back when Wallner was (and still is) on a hitting rampage. Just a few hits by him would have been better than what Kepler did and win a game or two more even if the defense wasn't quite as good.

[thelanges5]

Trade Kepler for a reliever, call up Wallner and let’s go!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Trade Kepler for a reliever, call up Wallner and let’s go!

What kind of Reliver is Kepler worth? We already have Emilio Pagan? I don’t want two Pagans!

[tony&rodney]

I didn't intend to be negative in my previous comment. It is early June and both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have been incredibly fun players to watch since their careers began. I have wanted to see another couple of years from each of them, and things can still turn around, hopefully. Mixed feelings was a great title for a recap of the week. The Twins may be receiving a rebound from Correa and there still is some faint wishes that Buxton is not done, but Max and Jorge have been the soul of this team and missed a few chances, although Polo came up big once recently. Are the next guys ready? It might be time. The growing strike outs and weak bats can't continue if the Twins are going to be competitive. TBR & TOR makes for a new test this week. The baseball season is a grind unlike any other sport.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

What kind of Reliver is Kepler worth? We already have Emilio Pagan? I don’t want two Pagans!

Package Kepler together with Pagan.  I bet some unsuspecting team is dying to ship us their shutdown reliever in return.

And then, we can sit back and watch Kepler engage in World Series heroics* for his new team, a la Eddie Rosario.

 

* I realize, we non-tendered Eddie, not trade him

[Nashvilletwin]

The Saints started Miranda, Wallner, Julien and Larnach today. The Twins started Castro, MAT, Solano, Kepler and Garlick with Gallo out.  Hmmm, what’s wrong with this picture? All six of those current Twins may very well be gone next season and several will likely be gone by early August.
 

Even if we substitute those four AAA players for our current Twins lineup and they don’t score any runs either, at least they would be getting valuable ABs and innings. Finding the positional fit will be tricky, but soon it will be time to pull the trigger on the young guys and start truly investing in the future.  It would be way more interesting to watch too.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

The Twins’ belief in Kepler continues to prove misguided after he returned from the injured list to go 3-for-26 with seven strikeouts and zero walks. With Wallner crushing at Triple-A and Trevor Larnach on the mend from pneumonia, it’s worth wondering just how long the Twins will let this ineptitude happen. Kepler is not under team control beyond this season with a $10M club option (and $1M buyout) left on his extension. He's a corner outfielder hitting .192 with a 76 wRC+ in 140 plate appearances. In any other circumstance, a DFA would seem likely. Given how the Twins have stuck by Kepler, though, that seems improbable.

Repeating my comment from the Sunday game summary here:

 

[Brett]

I would bet if we sorted the team by salary and showed everyone’s WAR/bWAR/fWAR (your choice), some of us would require a hug/bourbon/therapy (again, your choice).

[h2oface]

This team likes to say how good they are, but you are your record. Goes to show that you can't just win with good pitching. Pays to have an Arraez and not be foolish and trade him away for a 4 ERA career pitcher and think he will be your savior, and all of the sudden be way better than he always has been. Pays to admit that you aren't as good at the plate as you think, and have some that can hit, too, and actually do, and not just talk about how they can. What the bats can say with accuracy, is they strikeout the best of any team in MLB.

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Package Kepler together with Pagan.  I bet some unsuspecting team is dying to ship us their shutdown reliever in return.

And then, we can sit back and watch Kepler engage in World Series heroics* for his new team, a la Eddie Rosario.

 

* I realize, we non-tendered Eddie, not trade him

Maybe another Lopez to go for the disappointment hat trick?

[CRF]

This is a .500 team. If they can even manage to do that. Changes need to be made. We have to get these kids up here from StP and plug them in. Kepler won't be here next season, but he absolutely has to be benched now. He's hurting us at the plate tremendously. He's a defensive replacement only. Somehow, Correa and Buxton have to figure it out and begin hitting closer to what their norms are. MAT can't be our everyday CF, Buxton has to play some out there. The starting pitching has been great, but the pen is very shaky except for Duran. Hopefully Jax will turn it around. This team just has some kind of malaise about it. I know they're all trying, but the results are lacking right now. 

[Doctor Wu]

The recent double-Lopez meltdowns are very concerning. A temporary blip in either case, or real cause for alarm?

[MABB1959]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

It just feels like we let the week slip away by allowing Kepler back when Wallner was (and still is) on a hitting rampage. Just a few hits by him would have been better than what Kepler did and win a game or two more even if the defense wasn't quite as good.

That is the most disturbing factor in the last week.  Absolutely NO WAY should Wallner have been sent, down.  It is like a slap in the face and would make me want to get away from being part of the Twins team.  Kepler needs to be moved to the bench or let go right now.  Wasted at bats for what should be an offense position.  The games in the last week were fun to watch (I got to see one on AppleTV and another on Fox9).  They were for the most part competitive and we got a glimpse into the future.  When Correa and Buxton are healthy and I mean healthy, not just hanging on by a ligament they should be a a place in the lineup where the worst hitters play until they can prove otherwise and they should be told the bench isn't that far away.

[mikelink45]

The summary was terrific and the comments have been right on. I can't really add much and unfortunately I also can't subtract Kepler. This team needs hitters who can get on base as well as hit home runs. And our two  highest paid players need to earn their salary. We can't be so gentle with them that we accept for performance when we have somebody who might be able to step in and give us a spark for a while.

[Doctor Gast]

How's it going Nash with your new job? Good to have you back here.

[jmlease1]

I think if the Twins had managed to pull off a win on either Sat or Sun and won the series, we'd be feeling a lot different this morning. Kind of amazing how much one game can make a difference, but that's the way for a 4 game series against a division rival: take 3 out of 4 and you're rolling. Split 2-2 after winning the first 2 and the gloom sets in.

It's interesting to see so many people finally turning on Kepler; he's in a slump right now, but he hasn't been a plus offensive player for most of his career. In 8 full seasons, he's been an above league average hitter exactly twice, and one of those was the pandemic year (so less than 200 PAs). he'll probably bounce back a little bit this season and push those number back up around a 92-95 OPS+, but there's little chance of more.  And it's why some of us wanted to move on from him in the off-season, but once that decision got made to keep him it's really problematic to drop him in May/June. No one is trading for him right now (and it would be the ultimate sell low) and we're on the hook for his entire salary so literally the only thing the Twins gain at this point is a roster spot. That gets easier to accept as the season progresses, but of our corner OFs from the start of the season, Larnach, Gallo, Gordon, Kirilloff, and Kepler have all spent time (or are currently) on the IL this season, making our depth a little more wobbly. So i think the calls to cut Kepler today are unrealistic. But a lot of people were ignoring Kepler's lack of offense for a long time before now.

[John Belinski]

Max was a favorite of mine, but he just cannot hit anymore. Setting Wallner down was really a big mistake for a team that needs hitters. Rocco just cannot make changes.  How long will it take for Rocco to stop using a .200 hitter in the 3 spot? I can only assume that Rocco keeps thinking that Correa will start hitting so he leaves him in the 3 spot. Correa is the worst hitter in the 3 spot in all of baseball. Move him down until he starts hitting and then move him back to 3 spot. For a manager that looks at numbers it is really hard to understand why he is keeping a .200 hitter in the 3 spot.

[Guest]

Food for thought:

1.  The Twins are tied for thirteenth (of 15 AL teams, with the White Sox) in save percentage with 52%.  Only the A's are lower at 29%.

2.  The five AL teams with the highest pitching SO/W ratios  (all > 2.82) all have winning percentages over 55%.  Texas (.655 w/l) is at 2.60.  The Twins rank 12 of 15 at 2.42 and the three teams with lower pitching SO/W ratios all have sub-.500 winning percentages.

3.  Offensively, the Twins lead the AL in batters' strikeouts AND walks.  But, the Twins' batters' SO/W ratio ranks 11th of 15 teams (2.86).  All four teams with worse (higher SO to W) ratios have sub-.492 winning percentages.

4.  Ok, so subtract teams' batters' SO/W percentages (higher is bad) from pitchers' SO/W percentages (higher is good) and the top five teams are (in order) Tampa, Houston, Toronto, the Yanks and Baltimore,  The Twins rank 12 of 15 (-0.4) and the three teams below them are Kansas City, Chicago and Seattle, all sub-.500.  Oakland ranks 11 of 15 at -0.3.... 

The Twins' starting pitching has carried this team to overachievement so far.  The bullpen needs improvement.  And hitters need to put the ball in play.  The Twins are winning at a lower percentage than at this point last year, but won't improve unless some changes are made pretty quickly.

[mnfireman]

Mixed feelings or not, if a team can win 2 of 3 and split the 4 game series every week, that will lead to 90-95 wins in a season and in the AL Central, that is more than enough.

[LastOnePicked]

43 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

the only thing the Twins gain at this point is a roster spot

I understand your points, but when you're in a pennant race as Summer starts, don't you want every possible advantage you can get in the lineup? There is no advantage to Kepler at this point, and when you're losing tight games - where a single crucial at-bat here and there makes the difference - you need to put your best out there. This isn't some slump - this is who Kepler is.

I think that's my biggest frustration with this organization - there's just no killer instinct. "Close enough is good enough, we stick with our guys, we played our best game, there's always tomorrow." That kind of attitude is perfectly fine for kid's sports, but I find it disgusting when used by or for professionals.

What's worse is that the Twins will need these games later on. A big division lead means you've got buffer to rotate in youngsters. Hanging on in July means hasty deadline trades and additional injury stresses. But this club just cannot and will not learn from their mistakes.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

The recent double-Lopez meltdowns are very concerning. A temporary blip in either case, or real cause for alarm?

You're a Twins fan. You can answer that question already. :)

[Blyleven2011]

Week in review  , 4 and 3 road and home the past week  ...

Gardenhire and Kelly used to say the team is only as good as the players the GM gives them to manage ...

Rocco says the players have skills  , I guess your only as good as the manager manages  ... 

Rocco's team in 2019 holds the record for most homeruns in a season at 307 , Rocco must like records cause his team is on pace to set a new one with strikeouts ...

Currently the lowest twins batting average in twins history ...

[Nash Walker]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

How's it going Nash with your new job? Good to have you back here.

Hey Doc! Appreciate the comment. I am loving Reno and the Aces. It's a great opportunity here and I am calling games and growing every day!

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

The recent double-Lopez meltdowns are very concerning. A temporary blip in either case, or real cause for alarm?

Yes.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I understand your points, but when you're in a pennant race as Summer starts, don't you want every possible advantage you can get in the lineup? There is no advantage to Kepler at this point, and when you're losing tight games - where a single crucial at-bat here and there makes the difference - you need to put your best out there. This isn't some slump - this is who Kepler is.

Well, he's probably a bit better than this; right now it's a career low OPS+. But I don't disagree: he's a drag on the offense on a team that can't afford more drags on the offense. He's not going to be better than a league average bat for more than a week or two at a time. But the problem is, Larnach hasn't been able to stay healthy, Gallo has missed time, Gordon is missing a lot of time (and has been bad), and Kirilloff has a significant and recent injury history. If we dump Kepler now, he's gone forever. So it's an issue if you replace him with Wallner and someone else goes down, because now you're down to Garlick (who also has never stayed healthy). The closer you get to the trade deadline and further along you are in the season the less your depth matters, unless you have a pile of guys on the IL. But we're barely into June and have a bunch of injuries again.

I'm entirely unenthusiastic about running Max Kepler out there right now, but but I get why it seems like we're stuck with him for another month. The mistake was not dealing him in the offseason and using the money saved to reinforce the bullpen, add a RH corner OF or both.

Good news: Twins haven't been playing all that great, the offense is pretty thin, the bullpen could use reinforcements...and we're still leading the division by 3.5

 

[I wish the twins were good]

12 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

The Twins’ belief in Kepler continues to prove misguided after he returned from the injured list to go 3-for-26 with seven strikeouts and zero walks. With Wallner crushing at Triple-A and Trevor Larnach on the mend from pneumonia, it’s worth wondering just how long the Twins will let this ineptitude happen. Kepler is not under team control beyond this season with a $10M club option (and $1M buyout) left on his extension. He's a corner outfielder hitting .192 with a 76 wRC+ in 140 plate appearances. In any other circumstance, a DFA would seem likely. Given how the Twins have stuck by Kepler, though, that seems improbable.

Repeating my comment from the Sunday game summary here:

 

It would be one thing if it was just the bad performance from Mr.-currently-sitting-at-a-77 OPS+, but he has acted like a complete primadonna on top of it when what he should be doing is anything he can to save his precarious roster spot:

1) refuses to play center field when doing so would allow them to have Wallner up and contributing something to this putrid offense - check

2) refuses to go on rehab assignments when again, it would allow them to get a halfway decent hitter up for at least a week and a half - check

3) refused to get vaccinated leaving them shorthanded when they had to play in Canada during the covid years - check

This is just the stuff that's become public, but I think it paints enough of a picture you can fill in the rest of the blanks.... he's a PITA on and off the field.

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

Package Kepler together with Pagan.  I bet some unsuspecting team is dying to ship us their shutdown reliever in return.

And then, we can sit back and watch Kepler engage in World Series heroics* for his new team, a la Eddie Rosario.

 

* I realize, we non-tendered Eddie, not trade him

I know it was jokey, but I was happy for Rosario, and I'd be happy for Kepler too. 

I'm not sure if a change of scenery will turn Kepler's career around, but we've seen one good season in Minnesota vs seven under-achieving seasons. I think we have a large enough sample size to make the proper call on this one.