Guardians 4, Twins 2: Gray Allows First Home Run of Season, Twins Lose

We still have to ask about Lopez. If he's not going to perform the bullpen is really hurting

Not THE reason for another poor offensive performance (21st time in 59 games with 2 runs or less), but can someone explain why Garlick was called up to replace Gallo?  Wallner has been raking for the last week plus.  Larnach has also been hitting well.  Makes ZERO sense to me.

LHP's

The front office is tying Rocco's hands by making him work with such a short bench. AJ Pierzynski said having 1 player on the bench last night is unheard of.

Lopez has one bad thing happen to him and then every pitch is missing the catchers target by 3 feet. He's really going to hurt someone if he keeps this up.

Agree tomorrow is a big game. A split would be very disappointing after winning the first two and having our top two starters up next.  Let’s go get ‘em.

Lewis flashing leather and arm again tonight at 3B. Wow - he looks smooth! Assuming Lee is thus the 2B of the future, the battle for 1B in ‘24 looks to be between Kiriloff (who absolutely can play OF), Miranda, and, possibly, Julien (who could DH against RHPs when Buxton is out). 

Was really not a fan of that bunt call in the sixth. It's basically a push in terms of run expectancy, from about 1.44 runs expected with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs to 1.39 runs expected with 1 out and 2nd and 3rd, but that wasn't really my issue. I don't mind a sac bunt from time to time even if the math says it's a slightly negative play, but it depends on the guy bunting and the game situation.

I don't know why they're playing for one run there. They only had 2 runs off Allen, but he'd hardly been shutting the offense down. In particular they were taking good at bats the third time through the order and pushing his pitch count up toward his limit. Jeffers laid down a good bunt, but even if he perfectly places it he's not putting pressure on the defense with his foot speed. So it's one pitch and an out for Allen. Farmer as the lead runner also doesn't have speed so it's not even like he can score from third on most ground balls or shallow fly balls. Not to mention the fact that Jeffers has been hot, and while Castro has also been hot, he is still Willi Castro.  He hadn't taken good at bats against Allen earlier in the game (popping out on the first pitch and then grounding out on a pitch outside the strike zone with a 2-0 count).

I'd rather take a shot with Jeffers, and Castro still likely would have been up in a good RBI situation.

Seemed like a momentum killer to me at the time.

I'm generally still in favor of the long leash for starters, and Gray being the staff ace so far with a low pitch count heading into the 7th--pretty much a no brainer.

I don't belive for a second that Gray's incredible success the third time through the order coming into today was anything but good luck though. It's a pretty hard and fast rule that every starter gets hit harder each additional time through the order. It happened to Lopez two days ago also.

As long as the starters are being efficient and effective, letting them pitch deeper will probably be good for the bullpen and should work out more often than not. There are going to be a few more games like this one though, that's the trade off.

7 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Was really not a fan of that bunt call in the sixth. It's basically a push in terms of run expectancy, from about 1.44 runs expected with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs to 1.39 runs expected with 1 out and 2nd and 3rd, but that wasn't really my issue. I don't mind a sac bunt from time to time even if the math says it's a slightly negative play, but it depends on the guy bunting and the game situation.

I don't know why they're playing for one run there. They only had 2 runs off Allen, but he'd hardly been shutting the offense down. In particular they were taking good at bats the third time through the order and pushing his pitch count up toward his limit. Jeffers laid down a good bunt, but even if he perfectly places it he's not putting pressure on the defense with his foot speed. So it's one pitch and an out for Allen. Farmer as the lead runner also doesn't have speed so it's not even like he can score from third on most ground balls or shallow fly balls. Not to mention the fact that Jeffers has been hot, and while Castro has also been hot, he is still Willi Castro.  He hadn't taken good at bats against Allen earlier in the game (popping out on the first pitch and then grounding out on a pitch outside the strike zone with a 2-0 count).

I'd rather take a shot with Jeffers, and Castro still likely would have been up in a good RBI situation.

Seemed like a momentum killer to me at the time.

Only replying here to your math (and recognizing it wasn't your main issue) as it's important to remember when looking at run expectancy that the average value is not usually sufficient for making the decision, the spread also really matters. To take something to an extreme, a situation where you're guaranteed exactly one run has exactly the same expectation as a situation where you get zero runs half the time and exactly two runs half the time. I suspect bunting is more likely to get at least one, though less likely to get two or more, while swinging is probably more likely to get both zero and two or more. That is, swinging likely leads to a more variable outcome, even though the average expectation is similar. To build on your comment about the game situation mattering, if runs are scarce, it's easy to see that bunting would be the better play, while if you're down by a couple, swinging away would be the better play. So this isn't a situation where data isn't useful, but it is a situation where you need to make sure you're looking at the right data.

Lopez and Lopez. What a waste. Especially when you look at what the players we gave up ane could have helping us instead this year. Falvey and Levine struck out big time. One is our new Colome, and the other is now the worst starter on the team. One just appears to have a panic attack when something goes amiss, and the other just will never be worth Arraez. Such a shame.

Lewis should be a short when Correa is out. He should probably be a short when Mendoza Line hitting Carlos isn't out. This could get real interesting.

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Was really not a fan of that bunt call in the sixth. It's basically a push in terms of run expectancy, from about 1.44 runs expected with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs to 1.39 runs expected with 1 out and 2nd and 3rd, but that wasn't really my issue. I don't mind a sac bunt from time to time even if the math says it's a slightly negative play, but it depends on the guy bunting and the game situation.

I don't know why they're playing for one run there. They only had 2 runs off Allen, but he'd hardly been shutting the offense down. In particular they were taking good at bats the third time through the order and pushing his pitch count up toward his limit. Jeffers laid down a good bunt, but even if he perfectly places it he's not putting pressure on the defense with his foot speed. So it's one pitch and an out for Allen. Farmer as the lead runner also doesn't have speed so it's not even like he can score from third on most ground balls or shallow fly balls. Not to mention the fact that Jeffers has been hot, and while Castro has also been hot, he is still Willi Castro.  He hadn't taken good at bats against Allen earlier in the game (popping out on the first pitch and then grounding out on a pitch outside the strike zone with a 2-0 count).

I'd rather take a shot with Jeffers, and Castro still likely would have been up in a good RBI situation.

Seemed like a momentum killer to me at the time.

Getting runners on second and third with 1 out, and the double play (ironic) taken away, they are going for 2 runs, not 1. A soft single scores 2. not 1.

The game turned in a five-minute span, Castro's line drive double-play, the pop-up that landed in left field, and a bad pitch to Brennan.   Going in we know Cleveland only has three hitters in their current lineup, it is hard to accept when one of the non-hitters beats you with three RBI's in the game.  Sometimes I think there are games that you are just not destined to win and yesterday was one of those games.

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

Getting runners on second and third with 1 out, and the double play (ironic) taken away, they are going for 2 runs, not 1. A soft single scores 2. not 1.

It's a small change but the total run expectancy for that situation went down. I have to think that the odds of at least one run went up significantly due to the possibility for a sac fly. That would have to mean that the odds for two or more runs went down by a fairly significant amount.

So by the odds they were not going for multiple runs.

Jeffers is slow but he also hits the ball in the air quite a bit and has a lot of power.

Mostly I don't like giving outs away with the starter getting hit hard and reaching the end of his outing.

Not a fan of the road jerseys at home; they still letting the SP make the call on which uni they go with? And I know it's a random, meaningless question, I was just curious. (at least they went with the TC hats).

7 hours ago, AaronRendahl said:

Only replying here to your math (and recognizing it wasn't your main issue) as it's important to remember when looking at run expectancy that the average value is not usually sufficient for making the decision, the spread also really matters. To take something to an extreme, a situation where you're guaranteed exactly one run has exactly the same expectation as a situation where you get zero runs half the time and exactly two runs half the time. I suspect bunting is more likely to get at least one, though less likely to get two or more, while swinging is probably more likely to get both zero and two or more. That is, swinging likely leads to a more variable outcome, even though the average expectation is similar. To build on your comment about the game situation mattering, if runs are scarce, it's easy to see that bunting would be the better play, while if you're down by a couple, swinging away would be the better play. So this isn't a situation where data isn't useful, but it is a situation where you need to make sure you're looking at the right data.

That is basically what I am saying though.  The offense was doing fine against Allen just hadn't bunched up their hits. Why play for one run in that situation?

And if you really want that one run, why not just go for a safety squeeze in the next AB?

I didn't understand it.

The bottom of the 6th,not scoring at least one run in that situation gave Cleveland hope and they took it. No matter who is pitching you can't hang a curveball over the plate. If you payed any attention to Brennen's at bats he has been on Twins pitches the whole series. Can't see why they insist on using Lopez until he sees someone to get out of his head. One bad call or play he hangs a pitch or hits the batter. Put him on the IL for 10 days please. We now need to win Sunday to make a statement. But with this manager it will be very difficult.

Lopez looks like he has no control over his pitches and is certainly a big disappointment . Think Wallner should have been recalled based on his hitting record in the minors.

OK game since we can't win them all.  Happy to win today and take 2 of 3.

A good competitive game!

On 6/4/2023 at 8:06 AM, 2wins87 said:

That is basically what I am saying though.  The offense was doing fine against Allen just hadn't bunched up their hits. Why play for one run in that situation?

And if you really want that one run, why not just go for a safety squeeze in the next AB?

I didn't understand it.

Yes, didn't mean to disagree with your analysis, only to say that the expected (average) runs is not really the right stat to look at to make that case.